Goldman Sachs Slashes Oil Price Forecast to Below $60 in 2026
Higher risks of recessions and higher-than-expected OPEC+ production prompted Goldman Sachs to slash again its oil price forecasts for 2026, days after it had already cut its price outlook in the wake of the U.S. tariffs announcement last week. Goldman Sachs’s analysts issued a new note dated April 6, in which they slashed their 2026 oil price forecasts by $4 per barrel—to $58 for Brent Crude prices and to $55 for the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude. On Friday, Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecast for 2025 by 5.5% for Brent crude and by 4.3% for West Texas Intermediate, citing the OPEC+ decision to boost production in May and the tariff barrage that President Trump unleashed. The bank also revised down its 2026 Brent crude forecast by 9% to $62 per barrel and its 2026 WTI forecast by 6.3% to $59 per barrel. Two days later, Goldman Sachs slashed the forecasts again and now expects Brent Crude to average below $60 per barrel next year, at $58, amid recession risks, slowing demand, and more supply from the OPEC+ producers. The investment bank had previously forecasted oil demand growth at 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year. Now it sees the growth at half this figure, at 300,000 bpd. There is a chance of oil prices rising from current levels—if the U.S. backs down from the tariffs, according to the bank. “Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses,” Goldman’s analysts wrote in the April 6 note carried by Reuters. Goldman Sachs last week raised the recession odds to 45% over the next 12 months, up from a 35% chance of a recession estimated previously. Goldman’s analysts cited “a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed.”
Good news ahead? Petrol, Diesel & LPG price cut coming soon?
Amid rising geopolitical tension and the sanction on various Oil Producing Companies (OPCs), India has diversified its petroleum import basket and is procuring crude from countries located at various geographical locations. The move will not only ensure security of crude supplies but also mitigate the risk of dependence on crude oil from single region. Is the Modi government considering a proposal to reduce the prices of petroleum products? This question has gained significance after a Lok Sabha MP raised concerns about the continuous rise in petroleum prices across the country. The MP sought details on the reasons behind the price surge and the measures being taken to stabilize fuel costs. He also asked about any new initiatives to curb the rising prices of petrol and diesel, especially in light of global sanctions imposed on several oil-producing companies (OPCs). Additionally, the MP inquired whether any high-level review has been conducted on the fluctuations in prices of petrol, diesel, crude oil, and domestic LPG . Responding to this, Suresh Gopi, Minister of State (MoS), Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas said that the prices of petrol and diesel are market determined and Public Sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) take appropriate decision on pricing of petrol and diesel. He added that the government took several steps to insulate common citizens from high international prices, which included diversifying the crude import basket, invoking the provisions of Universal Service Obligation to ensure availability of petrol & diesel in domestic market, increasing the blending of ethanol in petrol, etc.
Oil Price Rout Extends on Recession Fears
The price slump in crude oil that began last week has extended into this one as market players’ fears about a global recession deepen. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at just below $64 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $60.54 per barrel, both down by over 2% from Friday’s close. Last week, crude oil prices took a 7% dive after China announced retaliatory tariffs for U.S. imports, matching the U.S. rate of 34% on top of existing levies. The move was universally seen as bearish for crude oil, hence the effect on prices. “The primary driver of the decline is concern that tariffs will weaken the global economy,” Rakuten Securities analyst Satoru Yoshida told Reuters. “Additionally, a planned production increase by OPEC+ is also contributing to the selling pressure,” Yoshida also said. ING commodity analysts noted the OPEC+ decision on output as a major factor for recent oil price developments, attributing said decision to three reasons: one, U.S. sanction action against Venezuela and Iran; U.S. pressure on Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices; and a desire to punish overproducers such as Iraq and Kazakhstan. The Dutch bank followed Goldman Sachs in revising its oil price for the year, now expecting Brent crude to average $72 per barrel in 2025, versus $74 per barrel earlier, ING’s head of commodity strategy Warren Patterson said in a note today. “For now, our balance continues to show a modest deficit over 2Q25 and 3Q25, supporting our view that prices over this period should move modestly higher from current levels. However, this can change quickly, depending on OPEC+ policy and demand developments,” Patterson wrote. Rakuten Securities’ Yoshida, on the other hand, predicts WTI could drop to as little as $50 per barrel if the stock market panic extends in time. Goldman Sachs slashed its oil price forecast on Friday, now expecting Brent crude to average $69 per barrel in 2025 and WTI to average $66 per barrel.
GreenLine to raise $275 mn equity to fund green fuel, EV truck push
GreenLine Mobility Solutions, a logistics firm backed by the Essar Group, is raising $275 million in equity from a group of investors, including Nikhil Kamath, co-founder of online stock-trading platform Zerodha, at an undisclosed valuation. The Mumbai-based firm, which currently operates a fleet of 650 LNG trucks in India, aims to scale up to 10,000 heavy-duty vehicles over the next few years, powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG) and electricity. The $1 billion fresh investment reflects GreenLine’s ambition to offer greener logistics alternatives to Indian firms. “This investment in decarbonising road logistics aligns with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s e-drive initiative,” said Anshuman Ruia, a director of Essar, adding “India’s vision for a low-carbon future is taking shape, and GreenLine is proud to be at the forefront.”
Oil Drops, Markets Rattle as Trump Unleashes Tariffs
Oil prices slipped on Wednesday afternoon after initially climbing more than $1 as markets digested a sweeping new round of global tariffs announced by an aggrieved U.S. President Donald Trump from the Rose Garden. The announcement rattled equity markets and fueled uncertainty across commodities, despite initial gains. Both Brent and WTI crude futures lost ground on Wednesday afternoon, reversing gains made after Trump revealed that a minimum 10% tariff would be imposed on all countries exporting goods to the United States. Additionally, 60 countries with the largest trade imbalances — including China, the European Union, and Vietnam — now face even steeper levies. China, for example, will see its total tariff level soar to 54%, according to the White House. Despite the broad reach of the new tariffs, the energy sector was largely spared. A White House official confirmed that imports of oil, gas, and refined products are exempt from the measures. Canada — a key U.S. trade partner — was formally exempted from Wednesday’s reciprocal tariff action. However, the White House noted that non-compliant CUSMA (Canada–U.S.–Mexico Agreement) goods would still be subject to a 25% tariff, and non-compliant CUSMA energy and potash exports would face a 10% duty. While oil markets digested the news with a slight downward turn, broader equity markets saw a sharper reaction. S&P 500 futures dropped 3.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures tumbled 4.2%, falling below their March 13 intraday lows to levels not seen since last September. Still, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking on Bloomberg TV, attempted to calm jittery investors, calling the move “the certainty on tariffs markets have long craved.” Bessent urged investors to “embrace the clarity” brought by the administration’s trade position. For now, while energy markets appear buffered by the exemption, traders remain cautious amid fears that retaliatory measures and a potential global trade slowdown could ultimately weigh on crude demand.
Canada Plots Energy Escape Route from Trump’s America
The leaders of Canada’s two biggest political parties are promising expansion and modernization of energy infrastructure to reduce dependence on the United States for energy exports amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff and sovereignty threats. Mark Carney, the Prime Minister who replaced Justin Trudeau and is leading the Liberal Party ahead of the April 28 federal election, says that Canada’s principal investment imperatives include “expanding and modernizing our energy infrastructure so that we are less dependent both on foreign suppliers and the United States as our main customer.” The leader of the main opposition Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, vowed this week that if the Conservatives came to power after a 10-year Liberal rule, he would create a ‘Canada First’ National Energy Corridor to rapidly approve and build the infrastructure Canada needs to end its energy dependence on America, “so we can stand up to Trump from a position of strength.” The Liberals, who were trailing Conservatives for years under former PM Trudeau, are now ahead in the opinion polls and widening the lead over Conservatives as the new Liberal leader Carney is seen as more capable than Poilievre of standing up to President Trump’s threats. If the six-point lead of the Liberals holds until Election Day, Carney could be able to form Canada’s first majority government in a decade. Conservative leader Poilievre, however, is more vocal than Carney in Canada’s need to cut its overall trade and energy export dependence on the United States. Poilievre announced on Monday that he would create a ‘Canada First’ National Energy Corridor to fast-track approvals for transmission lines, railways, pipelines, and other critical infrastructure across Canada in a pre-approved transport corridor entirely within Canada, transporting Canadian resources within Canada and to the world while bypassing the United States. The corridor “will bring billions of dollars of new investment into Canada’s economy, create powerful paycheques for Canadian workers, and restore our economic independence,” the Conservative Party said. Poilievre’s plan is that all levels of government “will provide legally binding commitments to approve projects,” which would end the “endless regulatory limbo” for investors. “In 2024, Canada exported 98% of its crude oil to the United States. This leaves us too dependent on the Americans,” said Poilievre. “Our Canada First National Energy Corridor will get us out from under America’s thumb and enable us to build the infrastructure we need to sell our natural resources to new markets, bring home jobs and dollars, and make us sovereign and self-reliant to stand up to Trump from a position of strength.” The U.S. tariff threat was a wake-up call for Canadian policymakers that the federal and provincial governments may have too hastily scrapped over the past decade Alberta-to-coast pipeline projects that could have diversified Canada’s oil and gas exports. Last month, the chief executives of some of the largest Canadian energy companies called on Canada’s main political parties to declare a Canadian energy crisis and key projects in the “national interest,” which would speed up reforms, planning, and construction of new oil and gas pipelines and LNG terminals. The open letter from 14 CEOs representing the four largest pipeline companies and 10 largest oil and natural gas companies recommends five key steps to build new energy infrastructure—simplify regulation, commit to firm deadlines for project approvals, grow production, attract investments, and encourage Indigenous co-investment opportunities. On Tuesday, Poilievre committed to meeting all of the policy recommendations from Canada’s energy sector to end dependence on the U.S. market and unleash Canada’s economy. Poilievre challenged Carney to do the same and to repudiate his commitment to “keep it in the ground”. “Canada’s energy sector, the experts on energy growth, have told us what we need to do. Today, I am committing to meeting all of their urgent recommendations,” Poilievre said. Carney, for his part, announced last week a plan to diversify Canadian trade by improving Canada’s trade-enabling infrastructure. A Mark Carney-led Liberal government will inject US$3.5 billion (C$5 billion) into a new Trade Diversification Corridor Fund to accelerate projects at ports, railroads, inland terminals, airports, and highways.
India achieves historic milestone in renewable energy sector, adds 25 GW of capacity in FY 25
The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) achieved historic milestone in the renewable energy sector for the financial year 2024-25. The country has added an unprecedented 25 GW of renewable energy capacity, marking an increase of nearly 35% over the previous year’s addition of 18.57 GW. India’s solar power sector led the renewable energy growth, with capacity additions soaring from 15 GW in FY24 to nearly 21 GW in FY25, a remarkable 38% increase. The country also achieved the significant milestone of surpassing 100 GW of installed solar capacity this year.
GAIL opens fresh round of inviting proposals for equity investment in start-ups
Continuing its commitment to support innovative Start-Ups, GAIL (India) Limited on Tuesday launched the 10th round of its initiative ‘GAIL Pankh’ through which interested Start-Ups can apply for equity investment from the Maharatna PSU. They can apply through the link ‘GAIL Pankh’ on GAIL website https://gailonline.com. The 10th round will remain open from April 1, 2025 till May 31, 2025. Start-Ups operating in focus areas which mainly include Natural Gas, Petrochemicals, Energy, Project management, E-commerce, Fintech, IoT and Data mining, Environment, Health, Social, Security and Safety, may apply for funding. GAIL has a corpus of Rs 5 billion for its Start-Up initiative.
Saudi Arabia Faces Oil Price Dilemma
As Saudi Arabia pushes ahead with its ambitious Vision 2030 plan to build huge futuristic cities and resorts, the world’s top crude oil exporter will need to borrow more money on the debt markets as oil prices continue to linger at levels of about $20 per barrel lower than the Saudi fiscal breakeven oil price. The Kingdom, the leader and main architect of the OPEC+ production cuts, is starting to ease a small part of these cuts on April 1, per the group’s latest plan to add 138,000 barrels per day (bpd) to supply this month. Rising OPEC+ output this year could weigh down on oil prices, which have been hovering in the low $70s per barrel in recent weeks. That’s well below the $91 per barrel that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) thinks is the oil price needed to balance Saudi Arabia’s budget. With many uncertainties about global trade and economic and oil demand growth, the Kingdom may have to endure a prolonged period of lower-than-breakeven prices and raise its public debt. Borrowing will have to increase to cover planned expenditures, or spending on some mega projects and Vision 2030 programs could be delayed or reduced, analysts say. Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s main cash cow, oil giant Aramco, has just slashed its dividend, which further dents income for the Kingdom, the company’s main shareholder. Another Deficit In its 2025 Budget Statement, Saudi Arabia expects total expenditures of $342 billion (1.285 trillion Saudi riyals) as it continues to invest in projects to diversify the economy away from oil revenues, which account for about 61% of total Saudi government revenue. Revenues are projected to be lower than expenditures, at $316 billion (1.184 trillion riyals). These estimates indicate a deficit of $27 billion (101 billion riyals), which represents about 2.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). “The Government will continue funding and supporting the implementation of programs, initiatives, and economic transformation projects in line with Saudi Vision 2030, while maintaining spending efficiency and fiscal sustainability over the medium- and long-term,” the Ministry of Finance said in November. To fill in the deficit gap, Saudi Arabia will issue more debt this year, aiming “to take advantage of available market opportunities to implement alternative government fiscal operations that enhance economic growth, such as spending that is directed towards strategies, mega projects, and Saudi Vision 2030 programs.” Public debt is expected to rise to 29.9% of GDP by the end of 2025, up from 29.3% of GDP in 2024. Saudi Arabia will continue to borrow on the debt markets and explore other financing options this year as it has estimated its funding needs for 2025 are $37 billion (139 billion riyals) to cover the deficit and repay maturing debts. Lower Dividends from Aramco The funding needs are likely to be higher than these estimates from January, considering that Saudi Aramco said in early March that its dividend would be 30% lower this year. Aramco said that it expects total dividends of $85.4 billion to be declared in 2025. This is nearly 30% lower compared to last year’s $124 billion in dividends, which included about $43.1 billion in performance-linked dividends. The lower dividends for 2025 will cut revenues for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which is the biggest shareholder of Aramco via a direct stake of almost 81.5% and an indirect interest via the sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), which has 16% of Aramco. As the deficit widens with the slashed Aramco dividend, Saudi authorities have the flexibility to recalibrate investments, Fitch Ratings said last month. Fitch expects the Saudi government to cut capex and associated current spending this year. “Regular project recalibration has recently resulted in a scaling back and resequencing of certain projects, for example,” the credit rating agency noted. “This flexibility could ease the effect on Saudi Arabia’s public finances if oil prices are lower than we expect, though in Fitch’s view, lower investment spending could also have an impact on efforts to diversify the economy away from oil.” Ironically, the Saudi efforts to diversify the oil-reliant economy need a sustained period of healthy oil demand and relatively high oil prices. This year, the uncertainties about oil markets and oil prices are even higher than usual, with a new U.S. Administration seeking American dominance with tariffs on the biggest trade partners and upending foreign diplomacy. Tariffs could weigh on economies, including the U.S. and Chinese economies. If these slow down, demand for oil will slow, too, and oil prices will decline. So will Saudi Arabia’s oil revenues. The OPEC+ group’s production increase and expectations of weaker demand growth due to the U.S. tariff policies and the potential economic slowdown will cap oil price rises this year, the monthly Reuters poll showed on Monday. At around $70 oil, the short-term remedies for Saudi Arabia are to raise borrowing to finance the mega projects or delay some of these investments.
Sanctioned Russian Arctic LNG Plant Flares Gas After Long Lull
Russia’s Arctic liquefied natural gas plant appears to have flared fuel last week, satellite images show, a move that could indicate the restart of a sanctioned export facility that has effectively been shuttered since last October. Snapshots taken by the European Sentinel 2 satellite show the Arctic LNG 2 facility flaring gas on March 30. An earlier picture captured on March 22 did not show a flame or any indication of activity.