Trump’s Russian oil threat pushes India to seek alternatives
Indian refiners have rushed back to the market to seek crude supply after President Donald Trump’s threat of more penalties against Russia raised concerns over potential disruptions to oil flows. State-owned Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. are seeking additional supplies for May arrival from regions such as the Middle East, North Sea and Mediterranean, said people familiar with the matter. The trading cycle for barrels delivered next month is typically concluded in early March. On Sunday, Trump raised the prospect of so-called secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if President Vladimir Putin refused a ceasefire with Ukraine. The comments drove benchmark futures higher, with West Texas Intermediate surging 3.1% on Monday, the biggest gain in almost 11 weeks. The Indian refiners are seeking non-Russian supplies from the spot market to reduce their reliance on the OPEC+ member following Trump’s threat, said traders who received the tender notifications, asking not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly.
MoPNG sets April gas price at $7.26/mmBtu; deepwater cap till Sept $10.04
The ministry of petroleum and natural gas has notified the price of domestic natural gas for the period from April 1 to April 30, 2025, as $7.26 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on a Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis. The Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), in a notification dated March 31, 2025, said, “In accordance with MoPNG’s Notification No.L-12015/1/2022-GP-I dated 7 April 2023, the price of domestic natural gas for the period 1st April 2025 to 30th April 2025 is notified as US$ 7.26 /MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis.” It further stated that for gas produced by Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Ltd (OIL) from their nomination fields, the price shall be subject to a ceiling of $6.75/mmBtu on GCV basis for the same period, in accordance with Para 4 of the notification dated 7 April 2023. In a separate notification issued on the same date, the ministry also announced the ceiling price for gas produced from difficult fields such as deepwater, ultra deepwater, and high-pressure-high-temperature (HPHT) areas. The price ceiling for such gas has been set at $10.04/mmBtu for the period from April 1 to September 30, 2025.
Kazakhstan Is Taking Big Hits As Trump and Putin Feud
Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration has attempted to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, offering a glimmer of hope that the 3-year war could soon come to an end. The U.S. has held separate meetings with Russian and Ukrainian delegations in a bid to reach a lasting deal, but one particular OPEC member is finding itself in the crosshairs of the conflict despite the ongoing peace negotiations. A week ago, Kavkazskaya oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region, part of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), was damaged after drone attacks, with Russia pointing fingers at Ukraine. Back in February, Russia reported that CPC delivery capacity was cut by 40% after an attack by Ukrainian drones. According to the CPC, last year, Kavkazskaya delivered at least 130,000 tons of oil per month and 1.51 million tons for the whole year. The CPC pipeline is the main export route for Kazakhstan, and supplies ~1% of the world’s oil. CPC’s main shareholders include Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX), Shell Plc. (NYSE:SHEL) and Eni S.p.A. (NYSE:E). According to Kazakh journalist Oleg Chervinsky, the CPC was included in Trump’s ceasefire moratorium on strikes from both Russia and Ukraine, suggesting the latest drone attack violation of those terms. However, AP News has pointed to the ambiguity in the moratorium, with Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of non-compliance. Both sides agreed to a limited, 30-day ceasefire, with Russian President Vladimir Putin imposing conditions that essentially meant a Ukrainian surrender. “They sat for 12 hours and seemed to have agreed on a joint statement,” Russia’s deputy chairman of defense committee, Vladimir Chizhov, told Rossiya 24. “However this was not adopted due to Ukraine’s position,” he said. However, it appears that the blame is now on Russia, with Trump reportedly “very angry” with Russian President Vladimir Putin for attacking the credibility of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s credibility. Trump has even threatened to slap 50% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil. “You could say that I was very angry, pissed off, when… Putin started getting into Zelensky’s credibility, because that’s not going in the right location,” Trump said. “New leadership means you’re not gonna have a deal for a long time,” he added. That marks a 180-degree turnaround in Trump’s tone towards the two leaders, after last month he called Zelenskiy a “dictator” and claimed he “started” the war with Russia The continuing attacks on Kazakhstan’s energy infrastructure can have dire ramifications for the country. According to oil and gas analyst Olzhas Baidildinov, last year, the CPC distributed $1.3 billion in dividends in 2024, with approximately $85 million channeled into the state budget while KazMunayGas, Kazakhstan’s national oil company, received ~$250 million. The attacks come at a time when Kazakhstan has been ramping up oil production in a bid to cut its budget deficit. Last month, Kazakhstan’s crude oil and gas condensate–a type of light oil- output hit a record high of 2.12 million barrels per day, good for a large 13% increase from January volumes. Excluding gas condensate, the country’s production increased 15.5% m-o-m to 1.83 million bpd. Kazakhstan’s surge in output was chalked up to increased production at the giant Tengiz oilfield, operated by Tengizchevroil, led by Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX). The U.S. oil and gas giant has embarked on a $48 billion expansion of Tengiz. Previously, Reuters reported that Kazakhstan could dramatically reduce its more than 80% share of oil flows via Russia by sharply increasing crude oil exports out of Turkey’s port of Ceyhan. According to Kazakhstan Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev, the country could ramp up exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to 20 million metric tons a year from the current 1.5 million. However, it’s not clear how Kazakhstan intends to comply with OPEC+ quotas, with its current output significantly above its quota of 1.468 million bpd. Last year, Russia, Kazakhstan and Iraq submitted their compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat, with over-produced volumes expected to be fully compensated through September 2025. Kazakhstan is expected to ‘pay back’ a cumulative 620 kb/d, Russia 480 kb/d and Iraq 1,184 kb/d. Luckily, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that supply surpluses the market feared for much of last year have yet to materialize, with the outlook for Q2 and Q3 suggesting that no surplus is imminent. StanChart has forecast that global demand will exceed supply by 0.9 mb/d in Q2 and by 0.5 mb/d in Q3 while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) sees excess demand at 0.1 mb/d in Q2 and a balanced market in Q3.
Indian Refiners Seek Alternatives to Russian Crude After Trump Tariff Threat
Indian oil refiners have started looking for alternative supplies of crude after President Trump threatened secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports if Moscow refuses to sign a ceasefire deal for the Ukraine. Bloomberg reported that companies such as Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. were looking for oil cargoes from the Middle East, the North Sea, and the Mediterranean for May delivery in anticipation of tariff action. President Trump threatened a 25% tariff on all Russian oil, saying “If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” in an interview for NBC. “That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil,” Trump elaborated. The mechanism would be the same as the one Trump applied to Venezuela, slapping a 25% tariff on all imports from countries that continue buying crude from the South American nation. Such a tariff would be a considerable problem for India, whose dependence on imported crude hit an all-time high in the latest fiscal year. India imported 88.2% of the crude it consumed in the April 2024-February 2025 period, according to oil ministry data released at the end of last month. This is up from 87.7% for the previous fiscal year. Due to this dependence, India is particularly price-sensitive, which is why it stepped up its purchases of Russian oil following the barrage of Western sanctions directed at Russia’s energy industry. Russia is currently India’s biggest single oil supplier.
‘Pissed with Putin,’ Donald Trump threatens tariffs on Russian oil exports; India, China in crossfire
President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a second wave of sanctions on Russian oil exports, which could have profound implications for countries like India and China, which have grown reliant on Russian oil since the onset of the Ukraine war. Trump’s comments, made during a phone interview with NBC News, suggest that the US President would consider “secondary tariffs” on Russian oil and its buyers if a ceasefire with Ukraine can’t be reached “I was pissed off about it. But if a deal isn’t made, and if I think it was Russia’s fault, I’m going to put secondary sanctions on Russia,” Trump told NBC, saying he meant “all oil coming out of Russia.” He said he plans to speak to Putin this week. According to Bloomberg, the US President expressed his frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putinduring the call, particularly after the Russian leader suggested ways to install new leadership in Ukraine.
Regulator proposes tweak in pipeline tariffs; CNG and piped gas to be charged lowest rate
In a significant change to regulations, oil and gas regulator PNGRB has proposed a new policy of how tariffs for pipelines carrying gas to users will be determined, and proposed charging city gas entities selling CNG and piped cooking gas to households at the lowest rates. The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has floated a public consultation document for changing the zonal tariffs levied on pipelines that carry natural gas from fields producing it or from import ports, to users such as power plants that make electricity from it, or fertiliser units that manufacture urea from it, or city gas entities that turn it into CNG for sale to automobiles and pipe it to household kitchens for cooking purposes. “In yet another far-reaching reform for bringing investments and to increase the gas consumption especially in CNG and domestic piped natural gas (one used in household kitchens for cooking) in the country, PNGRB has brought a proposal for reducing the price of piped natural gas used by domestic consumers and in transport,” the regulator said. A public consultation document (PCD) has been webhosted for seeking comments from stakeholders on various aspects of tariff regulations like reducing the unified tariff zones to two from three, levying zone one unified tariff to all the CNG and piped natural gas (PNG)-domestic customers, it said.
India raises local gas price from oil fields by 4%
India has increased the price of locally produced gas from oil fields by almost 4% to $6.75 per million metric British thermal units (mmBtu) for April, as compared to the previous month’s price of $6.50 per mmBtu, according to a government website update on Monday. This is the first adjustment in two years for the price of gas extracted from older fields. In 2023, the Indian government had established a maximum price of $6.50 per mmBtu for a period of two years. This cap included a provision for an annual increase of 25 cents from the third year onwards. Additionally, the ceiling price for gas to be extracted from challenging fields has been set at $10.04 per mmBtu for the period from April to September. This is a slight decrease from the previous six months’ ceiling price of $10.16 per mmBtu, as shown by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell of the oil ministry’s website. These prices will be used on a gross heat value basis. The increase in the price of gas produced from oil fields will result in higher earnings for the Oil and Natural Gas Corp (NSE:ONGC) and Oil India (NSE:OILI). However, it will also lead to an increase in prices for industrial buyers and companies in the fertilizer and city gas distribution sectors.
India’s Natural Gas Demand Can Double By 2030: PNGRB
India’s natural gas demand is increasing and can nearly double by 2030 if growth factors remain strong, said Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) chairman Anil Kumar Jain on Wednesday. The city gas distribution (CGD) network is expected to be the primary growth driver, he said at the 2nd PNGRB national conclave on natural gas and petroleum products infrastructure held in Gandhinagar. “The current natural gas consumption in India is around 190 million metric standard cubic meters per day (MMSCMD), and we expect a significant rise in city gas distribution by 2030. As per the growth estimates, natural gas consumption will rise to 297 MMSCMD under a scenario based on the existing global and domestic situations and policies. If the situation is conducive, the demand can grow to 365 MMSCMD by 2030,” he said. Jain said PNGRB is committed to setting up 17,000 CNG stations and 120 million domestic pipeline connections across the country by 2030. PNGRB is a statutory body mandated to regulate the refining, processing, storage, transportation, distribution, marketing, and sale of petroleum, petroleum products, and natural gas.
India Set to Unlock Vast Oil Reserves with Multi-Billion Dollar Investments
India is preparing to capitalize on its vast untapped oil reserves as part of a bold strategy to strengthen its domestic oil production and reduce its reliance on costly imports. Amid mounting trade pressures from the U.S. and concerns over President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff policy, which has already led to significant trade restrictions on steel and aluminum, experts see India’s oil exploration potential as an opportunity to boost local industries and mitigate future trade imbalances. Currently, India imports a staggering 87% of its oil, spending over $132 billion annually on crude oil imports. However, the country is sitting on an estimated 22 billion barrels of untapped oil reserves, located in underexplored basins like Mahanadi, Andaman, Bengal, and Kerala-Konkan. These reserves, found in lesser-known Category-II and Category-III sedimentary basins, are estimated to contain more oil than the Permian Basin in the United States, which has already produced 14 billion of its 34 billion barrels of recoverable reserves. Rahul Chauhan, an upstream analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, believes that India’s vast unexplored oil and gas sector is primed for significant growth. “With ONGC and Oil India already holding acreages in the Andaman waters under the Open Acreage Licensing Program (OALP), there’s potential for major discoveries, particularly with the entry of an international oil company experienced in deepwater and ultra-deepwater exploration,” Chauhan said. Despite only 10% of India’s 3.36 million square kilometers of sedimentary basins currently under exploration, the Indian government is aiming to increase this figure to 16% in 2024, following the upcoming OALP bidding rounds. The OALP program allows companies to bid for exploration rights and carve out areas for oil and gas exploration throughout the year. So far, 144 blocks covering about 244,007 square kilometers have been awarded under the program. India’s Petroleum Minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, has highlighted the sector’s potential, estimating that India’s oil and gas exploration activities could attract up to $100 billion in investments by 2030. “Our Exploration and Production (E&P) activities offer immense opportunities, and we are working towards increasing our exploration footprint to tap into these reserves,” Puri said. India’s increasing emphasis on domestic oil production is likely to attract interest from major global energy companies. BP, a British energy giant, has already formed a joint venture with Reliance Industries to operate 1,900 fuel retail stations across India and develop deepwater projects in the Krishna-Godavari Basin. The partnership with ONGC for offshore exploration rights demonstrates India’s appeal as an attractive destination for oil majors looking to diversify their portfolios.
Deferred EU Ban On Transshipment of Russian LNG In Force Today
An EU ban on transshipment of Russian liquefied gas (LNG) in ports introduced in June 2024, with a deferral granted until March 26, 2025, has finally come into force. The sanctions also prohibit EU countries from providing technical support, brokerage services, and financing for transshipment operations. Similar to previous sanctions, the import ban is intended to disrupt Putin’s ability to continue financing his war in Ukraine. Although Russian LNG accounted for just 5% of the bloc’s energy consumption in 2023, it still netted the Kremlin ~$8 billion in revenues. “If they can’t transship in Europe, they might have to take their ice-class tankers on longer journeys,” Laura Page, a gas expert at the Kpler data analytics firm, told Politico, adding that Russia “may not be able to get out as many loadings from Yamal because their vessels can’t get back as quickly.” Europe has cut Russian gas imports dramatically, with imports of Russian gas declining from about 450 million cubic meters per day (mcm/d) at the end of 2021 to about 150 mcm/d currently. Norway and the U.S. have replaced Russia as Europe’s biggest gas supplier: In 2023, Norway supplied 87.8 bcm (billion cubic meters) of gas to Europe, good for 30.3% of total imports while the U.S. supplied 56.2 bcm, accounting for 19.4% of total. However, there are talks about a potential return of more Russian gas to European markets, including during the latest London’s International Energy (IE) week. The Financial Times has reported about a plan by the former head of Nord Stream 2’s parent company to start up Nord Stream 2 with U.S. businesses buying the pipeline so as to act as middlemen between Russia and European consumers in the hope that would make flows seem more reliable. However, StanChart has pointed out that such a plan would need approvals from multiple jurisdictions, with the injection of U.S. interests not necessarily improving the reliability and supply security of Russian flows.