Govt cuts APM gas price for first time in 2 years
For the first time in two years, the government has reduced the price of natural gas used for producing CNG for vehicles and cooking gas, reflecting a decline in benchmark rates. The price of natural gas from legacy fields allocated to state-owned ONGC without auction has been reduced from USD 6.75 to USD 6.41 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), according to a notification from the Oil Ministry’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). The reduction, which is the first since the government in April 2023 implemented a new formula to price such gas, will aid city gas retailers like Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Mahanagar Gas Ltd and Adani-Total Gas Ltd who had been reeling under cost pressures from rise in input cost. The price of natural gas from legacy fields allocated to state-owned ONGC without auction has been reduced from USD 6.75 to USD 6.41 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), according to a notification from the Oil Ministry’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). The reduction, which is the first since the government in April 2023 implemented a new formula to price such gas, will aid city gas retailers like Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Mahanagar Gas Ltd and Adani-Total Gas Ltd who had been reeling under cost pressures from rise in input cost.
Elon Musk Says Oil Is “Small-Time”
With six little words, Elon Musk has relegated the oil industry to a historical footnote. This, despite the oil industry underpinning the workings of the entire world. “Compared to solar, oil is small-time,” Musk posted on X, delivering a withering verdict on the fossil fuel era. No charts, no caveats. Just a blunt assertion that the sun—not crude oil—will define the future of global energy. From a man whose fortunes straddle both electricity and ambition, the message was clear: oil may have powered the past, but it won’t own what comes next. The statement from Musk, however, doesn’t mean that fossil fuels are irrelevant. Musk warned in 2022 that the world would need to continue extracting oil and gas lest civilization start to crumble. “Realistically, I think we need to use oil and gas in the short term because otherwise, civilization will crumble,” adding that the transition to sustainable energy would “take some decades to complete.” At the time, Musk implored those who would listen to extract more oil and gas—not less. He also cautioned against demonizing fossil fuels. Musk’s latest statement doesn’t necessarily run contrary to that, but it does shine a light on his view on sustainable energy—solar will be king someday—and despite oil’s current dominance, it is without long-term relevance. Still, for an industry that fuels 80% of global energy demand, the comment comes as a gut punch. Whether it proves visionary or premature will depend on how quickly the world can resolve solar’s storage and scalability challenges—two serious hurdles that solar critics have highlighted for years. But betting against Musk’s version of the future is a risky proposition. He’s not just talking up solar—he’s building the factories, the batteries, and the grid-scale operations needed to make it dominant. For oil, the warning is implicit: your reign isn’t over, but the countdown has started.
Qatar’s share in India’s LNG imports hits 3-year low as US gains ground
According to the GIIGNL’s 2025 report, India imported 27 million tonnes of LNG in 2024, marking a 23 per cent year-on-year growth, the second-largest global rebound The move by India to procure more liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from the US to compensate for trade imbalances is eating into the share of its top supplier, Qatar, which hit a three-year low in the 2024 calendar year (CY). The Arab country, which usually accounts for half of India’s LNG imports, saw its share dip below 50 per cent last year. GIIGNL, the international association of LNG importers, pointed out in its 2025 annual report that India recorded the second-largest rebound among LNG importers, with shipments hitting 27 million tonnes (mt) last year, an increase of 5 mt, or 23 per cent year over year. At the end of the 2024 CY, the US share grew to almost one-fifth of India’s cumulative inbound cargoes, more than doubling in a span of five years. It accounted for 19 per cent of the total imports in 2024′ Qatar remained India’s top LNG supplier but its share declined to 42 per cent, compared to 50 per cent in 2023 and 53 per cent in 2022. The UAE, which lost its spot as India’s second-largest LNG supplier to the US in 2023, cornered a little over one-tenth of the volumes procured by the world’s fourth-largest LNG importer last year.
The oil market has a bigger problem than a slowing China – India
India is the stuff of dreams for OPEC and Big Oil: a rapidly developing nation of nearly 1.5 billion people where petroleum consumption is still in its infancy. It’s the next China — so the theory goes. Perhaps one day, but in 2025 it’s still the stuff of dreams. For years, energy economists have talked about “structural tailwinds” — including benign demographics, a burgeoning middle class and accelerating urbanization and industrialization — that would propel Indian oil demand. Those phenomena turned China into the world’s engine of petroleum demand growth (along with everything else) for a quarter century. From 2000 to 2025, the Asian giant added an average of 485,000 barrels a day every year to global consumption. Now, the boom is ending. Weighed down by slower economic growth and the rapid uptake of electric cars, Chinese oil demand will expand by 135,000 barrels a day this year, according to the International Energy Agency. Except for the pandemic period, that would be the smallest annual increase since 2005. If the bulls were right, India would be taking over by now. But it isn’t: For the last three months, its oil demand growth has been contracting. As things stand, India consumption may increase by as little as 130,000 barrels a day this year, about half what many thought a year ago; if confirmed, that would be the smallest annual increase in a decade, excluding the pandemic period.
Rising power demand pushes India’s LNG terminal utilisation higher in 2024
India’s LNG imports rose by more than 19% to 26.15 mt in 2024 against 21.96 mt in 2023 A searing summer coupled with prolonged heat waves accelerated India’s power demand last year with the world’s third largest energy consumer enhancing gas-based electricity generation, leading to higher utilisation at LNG terminals compared to 2023 and 2022. Natural gas is converted into LNG for transporting it through gas tankers. Regasification is the process of converting it back into gas. Higher LNG imports lead to higher utilisation levels at LNG terminals. According to the International Gas Union’s (IGU) world LNG report 2025, India’s LNG imports rose by more than 19 per cent to 26.15 million tonnes (mt) in 2024 against 21.96 mt in 2023, a 4.19 mt Y-o-Y increase. India accounted for 6.36 per cent of the global LNG market last year. China (19.12 per cent share), Japan (16.47 per cent), South Korea (11.43 per cent) and France (4.39 per cent) are the other top four LNG importing countries. Demand rebounded in Asia with China and India posting strong Y-o-Y growth in spot LNG imports, driven by heat waves, infrastructure expansions, and greater reliance on gas-for-power, IGU pointed out. Higher Utilisation “Average regasification utilisation in India grew noticeably in 2024 from 49 per cent in the prior year (2023) to 59 per cent, as the market raised LNG buying to meet gas for power demand due to heat waves,” the report pointed out. Regasification utilisation in 2023 was flat at 49 per cent compared to the 2022 CY, IGU data show. On the back of its regasification capacity additions, India witnessed rapid growth in LNG imports during 2010-2020, making it one of the top importing markets. It rose to become the world’s fourth largest LNG importer in 2023, with 22 mt imports, replacing France. India has seven LNG terminals with a cumulative capacity of 44.5 mt per annum (mtpa) as of 2024 (CY), overtaking the US to become the world’s fifth largest market by regasification capacity. Three new terminals and four expansion projects are under construction in India, of which five are onshore and two are floating based. By 2026, these undertakings are projected to bring 27 mtpa of regasification capacity and 1.12 million cubic meters (mcm) of storage capacity online, it added. Uncertainties Sustained low prices associated with the arrival of the next wave of LNG capacity could spark a surge in LNG demand. However, the outlook is clouded by the risk of delays and cost overruns in new supply and expansion projects emanating from factors such as geopolitics, trade policy, inflation, and labour shortages, IGU pointed out. “In Asia, most of the demand risk lies in India’s and China’s energy mix and economic outlook. When prices were elevated in late 2024, the price arbitrage for US cargoes into Asia was firmly shut as China and India shunned significant spot procurement.
Oil Prices Under Pressure From the Prospect of Another OPEC+ Hike
Crude oil prices slid further today after a weak start to the week, following reports that OPEC+ was discussing a greater than originally planned production hike for July. These reports have been circulating for a few days now, fueling pessimism among traders and forecasters. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $64.60 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate was at $61.30, after last week both recouped some of their earlier losses on reports about a more or less imminent Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. “Crude oil edged lower as the market contemplated the outlook for rising OPEC supply,” ANZ analysts said earlier today in a note, as quoted by Reuters. On the other hand, ING analysts noted President Trump’s concession to the EU, which delayed the entry into effect of 50% tariffs to early July in case the two failed to seal a new trade deal. Also on the bullish side, President Trump threatened Russia with more sanctions after intensified strikes on Ukraine that followed a large-scale Ukrainian attack on Russian territory. As for OPEC+, the Dutch bank’s analysts have assumed that the group will indeed add another 411,000 barrels to its output in July, ensuring that the international oil market is well supplied during the second half of the year. Meanwhile, in an update on the ongoing attempt to negotiate a nuclear deal between the United States and Iran, the latter’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said that the country will be able to survive even if no deal is negotiated and sanctions remain in place. “It’s not like we will die of hunger if they refuse to negotiate with us or impose sanctions,” Pezeshkian said, as quoted by Iranian state media. “We will find a way to survive.” If the two do reach a deal, the U.S. will likely lift sanctions on Iran’s oil industry, which would boost international flows of Iranian crude, depressing prices.
Goldman Sachs Doubles Down on Bearish Oil Outlook Despite Rising Demand
Goldman Sachs analysts issued yet another update to their oil price forecast, reiterating expectations of weaker prices this year and next, on the back of substantial growth in non-OPEC supply—excluding U.S. shale. In a note, the analysts said “oil production growth from non-OPEC ex Russia ex shale top projects will likely accelerate to 1MB/d over the next two years”, adding that natural gas liquids production was also set for a rise over the period, thanks to the launch of new projects in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The exclusion of U.S. shale from the prediction for non-OPEC output growth is quite significant, seeing as non-OPEC production forecasts normally focus on U.S. shale. Yet with prices depressed, producers in the shale patch have begun to retrench, and production growth is already slowing down. Indeed, Goldman’s analysts said that if prices remained subdued over the next two years, the peak in U.S. shale production growth could come earlier than previously expected. There is, however, a possibility that Goldman Sachs analysts are overestimating the supply situation: UBS said in an update that global visible oil inventories over the first quarter pointed to a tightly balanced market – not the substantial surplus Goldman and others have assumed, Kpler’s Amena Bakr wrote on X earlier today. The Swiss bank said it expected revisions in both supply and demand projections on the basis of the new data. Goldman has a 2025 price forecast of $60 per barrel for Brent crude and $56 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate. Goldman’s analysts expect the benchmarks to fall further next year, to $56 for Brent crude and $52 for WTI. The forecast has not been revised upwards despite a revision in demand projections, with the bank now expecting stronger demand growth this year, at 600,000 barrels daily, and 400,000 barrels daily in 2026.
GAIL issues swap tender for two LNG cargoes, sources say
GAIL (India) Ltd has issued a swap tender, offering two U.S.-loaded liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in exchange for two deliveries to India, two industry sources said
India Fears Oil Spill as Cargo Ship Sinks in Arabian Sea
Indian authorities and coast guard were mobilized on Monday to contain an oil spill after a cargo ship sank off India’s West coast this weekend, leaking marine fuel and fuel from containers. Liberia-flagged container vessel MSC ELSA 3 sent a distress signal to authorities on Saturday, May 24, the Indian Coast Guard said. The vessel departed from the port of Vizhinjam Port on May 23, bound for Kochi with ETA on May 24. However, following the distress signal, the vessel capsized and sank in the early hours of May 25, reportedly due to flooding in one of the holds, the coast guard said on Sunday. All 24 crew were rescued safely. The vessel was carrying 640 containers, including 13 containing hazardous cargo and 12 with calcium carbide. Additionally, the ship had 84.44 metric tons of diesel and 367.1 metric tons of furnace oil in its tanks. The Indian Coast Guard has activated a comprehensive Pollution Response preparedness and is working in close coordination with the administration of the Indian state of Kerala to address all possible scenarios. Coast Guard aircraft equipped with advanced oil spill mapping technology are conducting aerial assessment of the affected area. On Sunday, the state government of Kerala issued an alert to all Kerala coastal areas to warn of an oil spill. “Besides the oil in the fallen containers, marine fuel used in the ship has also leaked,” the Chief Minister’s Office said in a statement carried by The Indian Express. “As the oil slick can reach anywhere along the Kerala coast, an alert has been sounded across the coastal belt. The containers are drifting in the sea at a speed of 3 km per hour,” the Kerala state authorities added. The state government has banned fishing in an area of 20 nautical miles away from the ship that sunk.
Aramco Considers Asset Sales to Raise Cash
Saudi Aramco is reportedly exploring asset sales as a means of increasing the availability of funds to fuel its international expansion and existing operations, according to unnamed sources who spoke to Reuters. The sources told the publication that the Saudi state major had asked investment banks to come up with ideas on how best to make its assets generate some cash. Another two sources told Reuters the asset sales could help Aramco in its efforts to boost the efficiency of its operations and reduce costs. Aramco on Tuesday reported a drop in 2024 profits and guided for a 30% lower total dividend for this year, which would further strain the finances of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. In March, Aramco, which is the world’s single biggest crude producer and exporter, reported a net profit of $106.2 billion for 2024, down from $121.3 billion for 2023 as average oil prices fell last year compared to 2023 levels and as Saudi Arabia continues to curb production as part of the OPEC+ agreement. For the fourth quarter, Aramco’s board declared a base dividend of $21.1 billion, up by 4.2% year-over-year. However, the so-called performance-linked dividend was slashed to just $200 million for Q4, in a sign that low oil prices are starting to bite. Aramco is the biggest contributor to Saudi Arabia’s budget revenues and a vital source of funding for government projects. Because the Saudi government is quite ambitious with such projects, the budget breakeven price of oil has gone up to over $90 per barrel—even though Aramco has some of the lowest production costs in the world at its conventional oilfie.ds Because of this high breakeven, Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit hit $15.6 billion in the first quarter of this year—more than half of what the finance ministry has forecast for the full year.