India’s Green Hydrogen Bet Gets a $5.6B Boost
India is advancing efforts to boost renewable energy use even as the world’s third-largest crude oil importer is leading global oil demand growth. Indian Oil Corporation, the country’s top refiner, plans to replace fossil fuel-made hydrogen with green hydrogen – made from electrolysis – at one of its refineries. Indian Oil has recently finalized the cost for its green hydrogen plant in the Panipat Refinery & Petrochemical Complex, which will be India’s biggest renewable hydrogen production facility when it is commissioned, which is expected to take place in late 2027. The state-owned refining giant has picked Larsen & Toubro to build and operate the plant with a capacity to produce 10,000 tons of hydrogen per year. Larsen & Toubro (L&T) isn’t new to building hydrogen electrolyzers-the company commissioned in March its first India-made electrolyzer at the Green Hydrogen Plant at A M Naik Heavy Engineering Complex in Hazira, in the western state of Gujarat. Indian Oil’s green hydrogen project is in line with India’s National Green Hydrogen Mission, the state-run oil firm said. The mission aims “To make India the Global Hub for production, usage and export of Green Hydrogen and its derivatives.” Projects part of the mission will lead to significant decarbonization of the economy, reduced dependence on fossil fuel imports, and enable India to assume technology and market leadership in green hydrogen, the Indian Ministry of New and Renewable Energy says. India is supporting pilot projects to use green hydrogen in several crucial sectors, consuming a lot of petroleum-based fuels such as long-range heavy mobility, ports and shipping, and steelmaking, and to start replacing biomass with renewable hydrogen. As part of the National Green Hydrogen Mission, the Indian government launched in March five pilot projects for using hydrogen in buses and trucks. India looks to become a global leader in green hydrogen production and utilization, New and Renewable Energy Minister, Pralhad Joshi, said at the time. India has a target to produce 5 million metric tons of green hydrogen annually by 2030, install 60 GW-100 GW of electrolyzer capacity, and add 125 GW of renewable energy capacity dedicated to hydrogen production, the minister noted. These initiatives are expected to help cut carbon emissions, save money from imports, and attract investments, India says. India is set to see a surge in power demand and renewable energy build-out in the coming years and decades and could assert itself as a clean energy powerhouse if it boosts investments, U.S.-based clean energy think tank Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) said in a report on last month.
India can increase imports of shale gas, LNG, crude from US: Official
India’s exports to the US are rising, and it can increase imports of products like shale gas, LNG, and crude oil from America to diversify its import basket, as prices of these items are lower in the US, an official said. Teams of both countries will start next round of talks this week here on the proposed bilateral trade agreement. Though India is looking for a balanced and a mutually beneficial trade agreement with the US, “what we get as compared to other countries, will determine what we ultimately finalise in the deal,” the official said. Asked if some kind of interim trade deal can be agreed upon before July 9, the official said a lot of uncertainties are there at present because of developments like the Trump administration’s plan to further increase tariffs on steel and a stay on a court order against the US authorities’ decisions on tariffs. But within the constraints of uncertainties, India has to find pathways which are good for the country, the official said. “Exports are increasing… there are several things we can buy from the US… For example shale gas, LNG, crude oil. The more diversified our sources, the greater the benefit for us. Prices are also low in the US,” the official, who did not wish to be named, said. The official added that the US is a major trading partner of India, with a significant trade surplus in India’s favour. Moreover, a large number of jobs are linked to exports to the US.
Permian or Bust? U.S. Oil Growth Has a One-Basin Problem
The Permian basin has been the chief growth driver for U.S. shale oil production. The most prolific shale basin in North America has been the focus of attention for industry players and traders alike. But there might be a problem with the Permian. U.S. oil growth may be a bit too dependent on it. For proof, look no further than the Energy Information Administration’s drilling productivity report, which is now part of its Short-Term Energy Outlook. Month after month, the EIA reveals that of all major oil basins in the country, the Permian is usually the only one that sees growth in production. On occasion, another basin records some growth in output, but that growth is rather minor as compared to the solid five-figure growth numbers for the Permian. Indeed, the Energy Information Administration itself suggested growth in U.S. crude oil production has been heavily leaning on the Permian—for over a decade, at that. In a new report, the authority noted that onshore U.S. oil production had expanded threefold since 2010, driven by the shale boom, with that boom led by the Permian. Shale output, the EIA reported, grew from 800,000 bpd in 2010 to 8.9 million bpd in 2024. Of that, the Permian accounts for over 6 million barrels daily. But here’s the thing. In the same period, conventional oil production onshore declined from 2.4 million bpd in 2010 to 2.1 million bpd in 2024. This is certainly not a sharp decline, but it is a decline, and it might be noteworthy because growth in the Permian is starting to slow down as well. Not everyone is in agreement about the reasons. The exhaustion of top-tier acreage is certainly a fact, but opinions differ as to what comes next—a gradual and irreversible decline or another boom down the road. Top executives at major shale firms have already said that Permian oil production could hit its peak as early as the end of this decade. This is because some parts of the play have hit geological limits while others, yet to be drilled, are not expected to be as prolific as that top-tier acreage that the industry is running out of currently. Yet others, such as industry vet and commentator David Blackmon, argue that there may be another boom still left in the Permian. Granted, it probably won’t be the same as the original boom in the earlier 2000s, but there is still a lot of oil and gas left underground—it just needs the right price. It also seems to need the right producer configuration, namely a more consolidated industry with fewer but larger companies with greater resources in terms of cost efficiency by virtue of their sheer size and structure. Back in 2017, oil production in the Permian stood at 2.2 million barrels daily. Today, the Permian is producing over 6 million barrels daily, accounting for nearly half of the U.S. total, including both onshore and offshore production. This is truly impressive growth that is currently only comparable perhaps to Guyana’s meteoric rise to oil stardom. But this rate of production growth is unsustainable, at the very least, because of technical constraints. Shale wells get drilled faster, start producing faster and, unsurprisingly, deplete faster. There is also the issue of the oil-to-gas ratio in the yield. Pressure within the reservoir declines as more oil is brought to the surface, which allows more natural gas to be released from the geologic formation, so the ratio changes in favor of gas. Add cost considerations and the dominant expectation among analytical outlets that the Permian will slow down this year, and over the medium to long term, it starts to sound like the only reasonable expectation for the region. Wood Mackenzie recently forecast that production in the Permian will peak at 7.7 million barrels daily. This should happen around 2035, the consultancy said. But this will not be the end of the Permian—because when it reaches this level, production will stay there for a while. There will be no falling off a cliff for Permian oil output. At this level, Permian production will continue to offset declines in other shale plays, keeping the U.S. national total at a stable level. “It’s going to be a slow decline beyond that because there’s a lot of resource,” ConocoPhillips’ Ryan Lance said about the Permian recently. Occidental’s Vicki Hollub, for her part, said that peak U.S. production will occur sometime between 2027 and 2030, “and after that some decline.” Both predictions are quite guarded and rightly so. After all, no one really expected the original shale boom. This is the interesting thing about the oil industry, in fact, and this is why, although U.S. crude oil production may be heavily reliant on the Permian for its growth, this is not necessarily cause for worry. As long as there is demand for the product, which makes supply growth economically justifiable, there will be supply. It really is as simple as that.
Iran Oil Exports to China Shrink
Crude oil exports from Iran to its biggest buyer, China, shrank last month on tighter U.S. sanctions and refinery maintenance, Bloomberg has reported, citing data from Vortexa. Per that data, Iran shipped a little over 1.1 million barrels of crude to China daily, which was 20% lower than export flows in May 2024. Compared to April, the May figure is around 400,000 bpd lower. The data is not entirely certain, however, as tankers carrying Iranian crude abroad use a variety of moves to mask their origin and route. Kpler recently reported that a growing number of tankers carrying Iranian oil to China were now switching off their tracking devices that conceal their location. “Ship-to-ship transfers have been used to mask the origin of those cargoes,” a Kpler analyst told Bloomberg last week. “Now they’re switching signals off for longer, so that it’s now even harder to trace those flows back to the source, which is Iran,” Muyu Xu also said. Going forward, oil flows from Iran to China are likely to remain weaker than usual due to refinery maintenance, according to one Vortexa analyst, who said that “delayed seasonal refinery maintenance, […] is now expected to extend through July.” Chinese refiners also stocked up on cheap Iranian crude earlier in the year before Washington tightened the sanction noose, so their inventory levels should be quite comfortable for the time being. China is Iran’s biggest oil client, with the country’s private refiners buying most of Iran’s sanctioned crude. The two sides have established a trade relationship favorable for both. Iran gets to sell its crude that nearly everyone else shuns, while China’s independent refiners, the so-called teapots, get cheap oil. The U.S. and Iran are currently negotiating a new nuclear deal that could see the Trump administration lift sanctions but for that to happen, Iran would have to agree to completely suspend any uranium enrichment activities. Tehran has indicated it is not willing to do that.
ONGC says losing money in Assam, counters protesting employees
India’s top oil and gas producer ONGC on Tuesday said it is losing money in Assam because of low production and high employee headcount, as it countered allegations of protesting employees over stoppage of contentious overtime payment. In a statement, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) emphasised that it is hiring locally and is investing heavily in the local community in Assam. Reacting to a a sit-in by members of the ONGC Purbanchal Employees’ Association (OPEA) at the Assam Asset in Nazira, the company said the demonstration, while peaceful, has been primarily initiated as a protest against discontinuation of a particular overtime payment, “which was not admissible”. “The company is losing money while continuing its operations at Assam for the last few years; one of the reasons being low production and high manpower,” it said. It went on to state that the claim of the Union with respect to medical facilities being stopped was “factually incorrect”. “The change from direct credit to reimbursement mode has been introduced to curb misuse and malpractice related to a unique welfare facility the company provides to its in-service as well as to its former employees,” it said. Despite financial pressures linked to rising production costs in the Assam Asset, ONGC said it continues to maintain a significant presence in the region. The company reiterated “its commitment to Assam through a wide range of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives. These include sustained investment in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and skill development. The Siu-Ka-Pha Hospital at Sivasagar is one such flagship project providing healthcare to the locals.” While the current changes may cause short-term friction, they are aimed at ensuring long-term sustainability for ONGC’s operations in Assam. The situation remains stable, with dialogue channels open between management and employee representatives.
Oil India’s subsidiary to build major aviation fuel plant in Odisha under expansion push
Oil India Limited’s subsidiary Numaligarh Refinery limited is planning to set up a plant of substantial aviation fuel in Odisha. Chairman NRL and CMD OIL, Ranjit Rath while talking to media persons on Monday in Guwahati said that 200 KTPA (kilo-tonnes per annum) is part of net zero initiative. “2040 is the target of net zero therefore there are two prolonged strategies one doing net zero and another adding a value addition preposition.” He added, “As we are witnessing a 7 percent growth year on year, going forward we realised that substantial aviation fuel will be a good business model. A DPR is being prepared, as it will in coastal areas five year down the line there may be opportunity of export. However, we are not foreseeing exports as there will be enough demand within the country.” MD NRL B J Phukan said that from the bamboo dust of the bio refinery which is expected to come up this year in Assam there is planning to produce activated carbon. “We are taking assistance from IIT Guwahati for biolyser. Activated carbon is in high demand in the cosmetic industry even toothpaste uses it.” NRL is increasing its capacity from 3 to 9 MMTPA with a 1635 km Km Crude Oil Pipeline from Paradip Port to Numaligarh in Assam. The Assam Bio Ethanol Private Limited, of which the Numaligarh Refinery Limited (NRL)is the major stakeholder, is expected to start commercial production by the middle of this year.
India can increase imports of shale gas, LNG, crude from US: Official
India’s exports to the US are rising, and it can increase imports of products like shale gas, LNG, and crude oil from America to diversify its import basket, as prices of these items are lower in the US, an official said. Teams of both countries will start next round of talks this week here on the proposed bilateral trade agreement. Though India is looking for a balanced and a mutually beneficial trade agreement with the US, “what we get as compared to other countries, will determine what we ultimately finalise in the deal,” the official said. Asked if some kind of interim trade deal can be agreed upon before July 9, the official said a lot of uncertainties are there at present because of developments like the Trump administration’s plan to further increase tariffs on steel and a stay on a court order against the US authorities’ decisions on tariffs. But within the constraints of uncertainties, India has to find pathways which are good for the country, the official said. “Exports are increasing… there are several things we can buy from the US… For example shale gas, LNG, crude oil. The more diversified our sources, the greater the benefit for us. Prices are also low in the US,” the official, who did not wish to be named, said. The official added that the US is a major trading partner of India, with a significant trade surplus in India’s favour. Moreover, a large number of jobs are linked to exports to the US. India has already reserved its right to impose retaliatory tariffs against US duties on steel and aluminium. It has also sought consultations under the WTO norms on US tariffs on auto components. Asked if India is considering to take similar measures in more products, the official said India will protect its interests. “We will see what is good for India… accordingly we will take decisions,” the official said, adding, “Today lot of uncertainties are there… because of that court order… we will discuss how to address these issues… lot of uncertainties are there”. In February, US President Donald J Trump and Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi announced plans to negotiate the first tranche or phase of a mutually beneficial, multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by fall (September-October) of 2025. It is aimed at more than doubling the bilateral trade to USD 500 billion by 2030 from the current level of USD 191 billion. The US remained India’s largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25, with bilateral trade valued at USD 131.84 billion. The US accounts for about 18 per cent of India’s total goods exports, 6.22 per cent in imports, and 10.73 per cent in the country’s total merchandise trade.
‘500% tariffs…’: US senator targets Russia’s oil trade partners; India also in crosshairs
Standing on Ukrainian soil, US Senator Richard Blumenthal called for a bold economic offensive against Russia — a 500% tariff on any nation that continues buying Russian oil, gasoline, or petrochemicals. The proposal, revealed during a press conference in Kyiv, aims to choke the Kremlin’s war chest and ratchet up pressure on global buyers like China and India It marks a sharp escalation in Washington’s legislative efforts to curb Moscow’s aggression, coming on the heels of a bipartisan sanctions bill introduced in April with Senator Lindsey Graham. The bill spearheaded by Senator Richard Blumenthal would impose 500% tariffs on all countries purchasing Russian oil, gasoline, or petrochemicals. “That means 500% tariffs on India and on China — which buys 70% of these goods — and on anyone else who continues these purchases,” Blumenthal said. These penalties would come into force if Russia refuses to enter good-faith peace talks with Ukraine or acts again to compromise Ukraine’s sovereignty post any agreement. The sweeping sanctions would also extend to imports from countries that continue buying Russian gas, uranium, and other critical commodities. The Senate could begin considering the bill as early as next week. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump stated the US is “very close to making a deal with India.” He also confirmed that representatives from Pakistan are scheduled to visit Washington next week. “Pakistan representatives are coming in next week. We’re very close to making a deal with India,” Trump said at Joint Base Andrews. Still, he cautioned that tensions between India and Pakistan could upend any potential agreement. “And I wouldn’t have any interest in making a deal with either if they were going to be at war with each other,” he warned.
Will India’s draft PNG regulations power or paralyze hydrocarbon E&P?
The energy sector as a whole, and Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production in particular, has always been a high priority item on the Government of India’s agenda. The fact that India still imports 90% of the crude it consumes brings the sector into sharp focus. The importance of Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production has only been emphasized further by the imbalance created by ballooning domestic demand juxtaposed against declining domestic production, and increasing geopolitical uncertainties. All Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production in India – whether by the State-Owned Enterprises or Foreign / Private Operators – is conducted and regulated by the provisions of the Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Act 1948 (“Act”) and the Petroleum and Natural Gas Rules, 1959 (“Rules”). The Act and the Rules have been amended from time to time, to reflect the changing realities of the Indian E&P sector, including the entry of private and foreign operators, the introduction of Coal Bed Methane, Shale Gas, Shale Oil, and other hydrocarbons, and the policy shift, first to the New Exploration Licensing Policy at the turn of the century, and more recently, to the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy, and in parallel, from a Nomination regime to Production Sharing Contracts regime to the Open Acreage Licensing based Revenue Sharing Contracts regime. Yet, it cannot be denied that the legislative framework for the industry was getting a bit long in the tooth. After all, the Act is almost seventy-seven years old and the Rules just eleven years younger. In the backdrop of the global, regional, and local developments in the energy sector over the past two decades, in an unambiguous declaration of its openness to ‘updating’ the legislative framework, the Government amended the Act w.e.f. 15 April 2025 to move away from a ‘Crude Oil’ and ‘Natural Gas’ centric regime to a wider ‘Mineral Oils’ regime that brings the wider array of hydrocarbon energy within its fold, with an eye on boosting domestic production of mineral oils. As a follow-up, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has recently published (for receiving feedback and suggestions ) the Draft Petroleum and Natural Gas Rules, 2025 (“Draft PNG Rules”), with which it intends to replace the Rules. While it is indeed heartening to note that rather than tweaking the Rules yet again to reflect the changed energy sector landscape, the Government has chosen to bring in a ground-up fresh set of Rules, in my view, there have been as many misses as hits in the Draft. Let’s look at the hits (and these are only illustrative) first – bearing in mind India’s energy security needs and the need to maximise production expeditiously and economically, the Draft Rules postulate, firstly, an authorization for production from all parts of a reservoir including those extending beyond the geographical boundary of the contract area – and for this purpose, wherever possible, for an extension of the lease area or the merger of lease areas, and, secondly, the extension of rights under existing leases and contracts to conduct all mineral oil operations across the spectrum of energy hydrocarbons. Another big positive is the clearest indication yet, of a desire to bring in transparency and reasonableness in administrative decision-making, by making it mandatory for the Government to provide reasons in writing if any application is being rejected or if any direction is issued to the llessee/contractor following good international petroleum industry practices, to do or abstain from doing certain acts. The Draft PNG Rules also bring greenhouse gas emissions into focus, with provisions being made for in-reservoir sequestration rather than atmospheric release. Another important feature is the proposal for the development of comprehensive or integrated energy projects that may potentially combine the generation of renewable energy with conventional energy exploration and production.
Area under oil, gas exploration in India has jumped 76 pc in last 10 years: Hardeep Puri
As much as 76 per cent of the total area in India’s sedimentary basin currently being explored for oil and gas has come under active exploration since 2014, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri has said. Addressing the CII annual business summit here, the minister said that in the last decade the Government has succeeded in increasing the explored area for oil and gas in India’s sedimentary basin from 6 per cent to 10 per cent which would soon reach 15 per cent. “We intend to increase India’s oil and gas exploration acreage to 1 million sq km by 2030,” he said. The minister further stated that India’s rapidly expanding energy economy was in a robust state under the leadership of PM Modi. He pointed out that energy security was now a strategic necessity for India in a volatile global energy landscape being shaped by geopolitical realignments, conflicts, and climate commitments. “The size and magnitude of India’s energy sector can be gauged by the fact that in 2024-25, India imported around 242.4 million tonnes of crude oil and spent $137 billion on the imports, while increasing the number of countries we import from, to 40 from 27 earlier,” Puri said. India has also been able to navigate the trilemma of energy availability, affordability and sustainability through the difficult times; and in doing so, while fuel prices around the world were skyrocketing, India was the only country where the prices actually came down and have remained there as a result of proactive measures implemented by PM Modi for the benefit of the citizens, he added. Puri further stated that with key reforms and fresh thrust to growth in the sector, India is now on the fast track of growth by expanding and strengthening the energy infrastructure and implementing innovative solutions to provide momentum to green energy transition. In this context, he mentioned that India’s ethanol blending initiative has also resulted in a significant jump. “We have increased the ethanol blending in petrol from 1.53 per cent in 2013-14 to around 20 per cent in April 2025, as we now look beyond,” he added.