Asia’s green jet fuel ambitions exceed demand, heralding exports
Asia’s ability to supply sustainable aviation fuel will outpace regional demand this year and next as more production comes online, increasing exports and potentially lowering prices for the fuel, oil executives and analysts said. Planned SAF production could take a hit if regional demand remains tepid and prices fall below production costs, industry sources say, though Asia’s increased capacity is good news for airlines that have been complaining SAF is too expensive and hard to source. At least five SAF projects in Asia, outside of China, have started up or are earmarked to start production this year, targeting exports regionally and to Europe. Unlike in Europe, where flights departing EU and UK airports must now use 2 per cent SAF in their tanks, Asia’s mandated demand remains low with compulsory use of the renewable fuel in some nations to start only later this decade.
Oil Prices Continue Downward Spiral Amid Market Chaos
Oil markets have kicked off the new week on the back foot with the oil price selloff deepening amid a raft of bearish catalysts. Brent crude for May delivery fell 1.38% to trade at $69.39 per barrel at 1.44 pm ET on Monday, while WTI crude for April delivery declined 1.37% to change hands at $66.12 per barrel. The oil price decline comes as a reversal after crude oil futures rose sharply on Friday but still finished with another week of losses thanks to OPEC’s decision to go ahead with production increases starting in April, uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, and a bearish build in U.S. crude stocks. Last week, a statement posted on OPEC’s website revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman and Algeria will start unwinding a 2.2 million barrel per day cut from April. The cartel’s decision to add about 138,000 bpd in April appears intended to appease U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly called on OPEC “to reduce the price of oil.” “There is a bit of a concern in the market that the OPEC+ decision is the start of a series of more monthly supply additions, but the statement from OPEC+ reiterates an approach in bringing back barrels only if the market can absorb them,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Friday’s gains were triggered by remarks by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak that OPEC+ could reverse the production increase planned to begin next month: If there is an imbalance in the market, “we can always play in the other direction,” Novak said, according to Reuters. Previously, we noted that the OPEC press release stressed that the return of oil “may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions’’. On a further bullish note, the increase in oil supply due to OPEC unwinding could even be lower due to a potential offsetting effect of an acceleration in the payback of past overproduction. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that current market balances imply that the unwind is unlikely to produce any significant surplus, with a mild surplus expected in Q4-2025 and Q4-2026. Meanwhile, robust demand growth and a continued slowdown in U.S. oil liquids supply will create room for the cuts to be unwound. U.S. oil supply growth slowed significantly in 2024, with revised data showing U.S. crude oil output averaged 13.208 mb/d, good for a mere increase of 274 kb/d y/y following the 942 kb/d increase seen in 2023. StanChart has predicted that U.S. crude oil output will slow further to 231 kb/d in 2025 and just 66 kb/d in 2026. Iranian Oil Returns To Markets Meanwhile, there are growing signs that oil under sanctions is returning to the markets. China’s crude imports during the first two months of this year were down about 5% from a year earlier, thanks to U.S. sanctions on Iran. However, Iranian oil continues being delivered to Chinese ports aboard smaller tankers. “Sanctioned flows have continued largely unfazed as the initial disruption has failed to continue for a meaningful duration,” RBC Capital Markets analysts including Brian Leisen and Helima Croft wrote this week. “January’s disruption did in fact cause a physical impact and a change in crude buying behavior, but as we’ve seen time and again since 2023, the shadow supply chain outperformed.” Trump’s first sanctions against Iran targeted 3 vessels carrying Iranian crude to China. The sanctions affected one very-large crude carrier (VLCC) and two Aframaxes that the Treasury Department said helped move Iranian oil to China. They also targeted several entities and individuals across different countries involved in the trade, on behalf of Tehran’s Armed Forces General Staff and its sanctioned front company, Sepehr Energy Jahan Nama Pars. The Trump administration imposed further sanctions on more than 30 people and vessels for selling and transporting Iranian petroleum-related products as part of the country’s”shadow fleet”. The latest sanctions target tanker operators and managers in India and China; oil brokers in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Hong Kong and the head of Iran’s National Iranian Oil Company. Trafigura Group’s head of oil trading Ben Luckock has named U.S. foreign policy towards Iran as the biggest upside risk to crude prices in an otherwise well supplied market.“The two big unknowns are – how is the US going to deal with it’s trade issue with China and then how is the US going to deal with Iran and I think the Iranian one is the one that we need to watch out for,” Luckock said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “You may find that pressure on Iran backs it into a corner and then we have to be careful.”
Government To Enforce Delhi High Court Order In Gas Dispute With Reliance Industries, Says Oil Minister Puri
Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri on Mar. 7 said that his ministry will pursue its demand for $2.81 billion from Reliance Industries Ltd. and its partners till the end, as the court decision on the gas migration row clearly establishes the government’s rights. RIL had earlier received a Rs 245.22 billion ($2.81 billion) demand from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. Citing cases in the past that the ministry has won, Puri said that this is an absolutely clear court verdict. “We have already filed for $2.8 billion, and we will enforce it right till the end,” he said. The demand was after the Delhi High Court reversed the judgement that dismissed the appeal challenging an arbitral award to the company. This figure represents a significant increase from the previous $1.55 billion demand, showing additional calculations related to the gas migration issue. If the company is liable to pay this amount, it would represent approximately 31% of the company’s profitability over the past 12 months.
Why has India promised to buy more U.S. Oil?
The story so far: India committed to procure more oil and natural gas from the U.S. when Prime Minister Narendra Modi met U.S. President Donald Trump in February in Washington amid tariff threats. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said India’s energy purchases from the U.S. could increase from last year’s $15 billion to $25 billion in the near future. A Reuters report showed that the U.S. exported about 3,57,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude to India in February, compared with exports of about 2,21,000 bpd last year. What has India agreed on? India is the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer. For a country which relies on imports for more than 85% of its crude oil requirements, any step to secure hydrocarbon supplies is crucial. The country has promised to enhance oil and gas purchase from the U.S., which will bolster energy ties, and also help, to an extent, in achieving the ambitious doubling of bilateral trade to $500 billion over the next five years. At present, the bilateral trade is in India’s favour. The statistics of the Office of the United States Trade Representative show that the goods trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion in 2024, which is a 5.4% increase from 2023. Executive Director (Energy Transition and Cleantech Consulting) at S&P Global Commodity Insights Gauri Jauhar said that procuring more oil and gas from the U.S. will add to the diversity of major, long-term sources of supply. What about LNG requirements and supply? The aim is to establish the U.S. as a leading supplier of crude oil and petroleum products and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to India. It has been decided to ramp up trade in the hydrocarbon sector, including ethane and petroleum products, with an eye on supply diversification and energy security. The two sides agreed to enhance investments, particularly in oil and gas infrastructure, and facilitate greater cooperation between energy companies. Strengthening cooperation in civil nuclear energy and U.S. support for India to be made a full member of the International Energy Agency (IEA) were also mentioned. What are India’s needs on oil and gas? India imported a total of 234.26 million tonnes of crude oil in 2023-24. Import dependence touched 87.8% against 87.4% in the previous financial year. Domestic production corresponds to less than 13% of the requirement, with domestic crude oil production remaining almost unchanged at 29.36 million tonnes last fiscal (2023-24). In volume terms, the imports were almost similar, but the import bill in 2023-24 declined year-on-year to $133.37 billion on the back of lower international rates. In 2022-23, the oil import bill was $157.53 billion. Additionally, India spent $22.93 billion on the import of 48.69 million tonnes of petroleum products like LPG, fuel oil and petcoke. It also exported 62.59 million tonnes of products for $47.72 billion. India also imports LNG. In 2023-24, the country imported 31.80 billion cubic metres (bcm) for $13.405 billion. In the previous fiscal, gas imports were 26.30 bcm for $17.11 billion, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry said in a report, citing the price shock of 2022-23 in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India is keen on increasing the share of clean fuel in its energy basket. Emphasising on the strategic importance of energy ties with the U.S., especially for LNG, petroleum and natural gas, Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said India wants to increase its natural gas consumption to 15% from the existing about 6%.
India’s Gas price index rises 25% YoY in Feb 2025
India’s Gas Index of India (GIXI) for February 2025 stood at Rs 1,112 per MMBtu ($12.8 per MMBtu), marking a 25 percent year-on-year (YoY) increase. The surge was driven primarily by heightened gas demand from Europe, particularly from gas-based power plants. This increase aligns with the upward trend observed in global gas benchmark prices. European and East Asian spot international gas benchmark prices reflected significant gains, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) price reaching $15.4 per MMBtu, up by 90 percent YoY and 6 percent month-on-month (MoM). Similarly, the West India Marker (WIM) price surged by 65 percent YoY and 5 percent MoM to $16 per MMBtu (ex-Dahej). Regionally, the GIXI-West remained at par with the All-India GIXI, whereas the GIXI-East was 10 percent lower at Rs 1,000 per MMBtu ($11.5 per MMBtu) due to transmission cost differentials. Meanwhile, GIXI-Dahej for February 2025 was recorded at Rs 1,111 per MMBtu ($12.8 per MMBtu), reflecting a 10 percent MoM decline. GIXI-Dahej was at an 18 percent discount ($2 per MMBtu) compared to the WIM-ex-Dahej settled price for February.
India Bought 112 Billion Euro Worth Of Russian Oil Since Ukraine War: Report
The world’s third largest oil consuming and importing nation, spent 102.5 billion euro (about Rs 1500 billion) on buying crude oil from Russia since the start of the Ukraine war, a European think tank said on Thursday. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) released a report on payments to Russia for fossil fuels since February 24, 2022. According to our estimates, since the beginning of the war, Russia earned EUR 835 billion in revenue from fossil fuel exports,” it said. China was the biggest buyer of Russian fossil fuel at EUR 235 billion (made up of EUR 170 billion for oil, EUR 34.3 billion for coal and EUR 30.5 billion for gas). India, according to CREA, bought fossil fuel worth EUR 205.84 billion from Russia from the beginning of the war until March 2, 2025. This comprised EUR 112.5 billion (USD 121.59 billion) for purchase of crude oil, which is refined into fuels like petrol and diesel at refineries, and EUR 13.25 billion for coal. India, which is more than 85 per cent dependent on imports to meet its crude oil needs, spent USD 232.7 billion on crude imports in 2022-23 (April 2022 to March 2023) and USD 234.3 billion in 2023-24. In the first 10 months of the current fiscal, it spent USD 195.2 billion. India, which has traditionally sourced its oil from the Middle East, began importing a large volume of oil from Russia soon after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This is primarily because Russian oil was available at a significant discount to other international benchmarks due to Western sanctions and some European countries shunning purchases. This led to India’s imports of Russian oil seeing a dramatic rise, growing from less than 1 per cent of its total crude oil imports to a staggering 40 per cent in a short period. Some of the refineries in India turned Russian crude oil into fuels like petrol and diesel which were exported to Europe and other G7 countries, according to CREA.
Accelera and GAIL Join Forces to Boost Green Hydrogen
Accelera™ by Cummins, the clean energy division of Cummins Inc. [NYSE: CMI], has teamed up with GAIL (India) Limited, a leading public sector enterprise and major player in India’s natural gas sector, to drive the development of green hydrogen and other clean technologies in India. The partnership, formalized through a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), combines Accelera’s cutting-edge hydrogen production technology with GAIL’s extensive natural gas infrastructure to explore potential in hydrogen generation, blending, transport, and storage. The collaboration aims to assess and develop projects across a range of industries, including transportation, energy, and steel. “Partnering with GAIL highlights the transformative potential of green hydrogen and the versatility of large-scale electrolysis,” said Alex Savelli, Global Commercial Leader – Electrolyzers at Accelera. “By integrating our advanced electrolyzer technology with GAIL’s broad energy infrastructure, we are well-placed to accelerate the widespread use of green hydrogen in India.”
India launches first pilot project for hydrogen-fueled vehicles
The Indian government launched on Tuesday the first of its pilot projects to operate hydrogen-powered buses and trucks across the country under the National Green Hydrogen Mission. Introduced in 2023, with an allocated fund of $2.4 billion, the green hydrogen mission aims to promote the production and use of green hydrogen, which is seen as a critical part of India’s strategy to reduce carbon emissions and achieve its climate goals. It seeks to make India a global hub for the production of green hydrogen, which all over the world is emerging as a future alternative to fossil fuels. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy said in a statement that it had approved five pilot projects, comprising a total of 37 buses and trucks and nine hydrogen refueling stations. The vehicles will operate on 10 different routes across the country, connecting major cities and regions, including greater Noida, Delhi, and Agra — home to India’s top monument and tourist site, the Taj Mahal — in the north, parts of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh states in eastern India along the Bay of Bengal coast, several cities in Gujarat state and the financial hub of Mumbai along the western coast, and Kochi in the southwest. “The vehicles that will be deployed for the trial include 15 hydrogen fuel cell-based vehicles and 22 hydrogen internal combustion engine-based vehicles,” the ministry said. “The total financial support for selected projects made available will be around Rs. 2.08 billion ($24 million) from the government of India. These pilot projects are likely to be commissioned in the next 18-24 months, paving the way to the scale up of such technologies in India.”
Natural gas import bill rises 17% to $12.9-billion in April-January
India’s natural gas import bill surged by 17.2% to $12.9 billion during April–January of the current fiscal, compared with $11.0 billion in the same period last year, driven by rising consumption, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). In January, the import bill increased by approximately 8.3% to $1.3 billion, compared to January 2024. The country imported 31,347 million standard cubic meters (mmscm) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) during the first ten months of FY25, reflecting a 21% increase over the corresponding period of FY24. Analysts attributed this growth to a combination of rising demand and stabilised global natural gas prices, which had previously surged to record highs in FY23. India’s natural gas consumption rose by 10% to 61,282 mmscm, driven by higher demand from the city gas distribution (CGD), fertiliser, and power sectors. This pushed the country’s reliance on imported gas to 51.2%, up from 46.5% in the same period last fiscal. Despite the rise in imports, domestic natural gas production showed only a marginal increase of 2.6% during April–January. State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) produced 15,763 mmscm of natural gas during this period, a decline from 16,189 mmscm in the same period last year. Production remained below targets, highlighting the widening gap between demand and domestic supply. India’s LNG imports are expected to moderate in 2025, with growth projected to slow to 10%, compared to 21% in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This slowdown is attributed to tempered demand growth and continued global competition for LNG cargoes.
Oil Extends Losing Streak on Tariff Uncertainty
Crude oil prices extended their decline from Tuesday following remarks by the U.S. Commerce Secretary that some tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be rolled back, boosting uncertainty. The news that OPEC+ had decided to go ahead with its April wind-down of production cuts also continued to weigh on prices, after plunging them lower earlier this week. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $70.87 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $67.75 per barrel, both down from opening. The “OPEC+ decision to start increasing production again is a materially bearish development, loosening markets at a time that U.S. macro data are starting to soften,” Citi analysts said in a note quoted by Reuters. OPEC+ will boost combined production by some 138,000 bpd from April—a small portion of its total cuts that are close to a million barrels daily. Also weighing on prices is sentiment among traders, who suspect the tariff war President Trump started against the largest trade partners of the U.S. could extend in time. “Canada is bunkering down for a fight,” a regional executive at UBS told Bloomberg. “The real risk is this thing gets drawn out,” Wayne Gordon, regional chief investment officer at the bank said. The Trump administration imposed a 25% import levy on all Mexican imports, beginning Tuesday, along with a 25% tariff on all Canadian imports excluding energy, which got a discount of 15% for a 10% tariff rate. Canada retaliated quickly enough. The retaliation began with 25% on $107 billion worth of American goods – starting with tariffs on $20.8 billion worth of goods immediately, and tariffs on the remaining $6.6 billion on American products in 21 days’ time, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday. “Our tariffs will remain in place until the U.S. trade action is withdrawn, and should U.S. tariffs not cease, we are in active and ongoing discussions with provinces and territories to pursue several non-tariff measures,” Trudeau also said. GasBuddy reported later in the day that it expects prices at the pump to rise as a result of the tariff exchange.