Goldman warns oil below $40 is possible in ‘extreme’ scenario
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. — fresh from cutting oil forecasts twice in a week — said Brent has the outside potential to fall below $40 a barrel under “extreme” outcomes as the trade war flares and supplies rise. “In a more extreme and less likely scenario with both a global GDP slowdown and a full unwind of OPEC+ cuts, which would discipline non-OPEC supply, we estimate that Brent would fall just under $40 a barrel in late 2026,” analysts including Yulia Grigsby said in an April 7 note. That view does not represent the bank’s current base-case outlook, which has Brent at $55 next December. The global oil market has been rocked in recent sessions as the Trump administration’s escalation of the trade war, plus pushback from some other economies including China, raised recessionary risks and headwinds for energy consumption. At the same time, OPEC+ has pivoted, adding more barrels back than had been expected after a long period of supply restraint. Against that backdrop, banks including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale SA have cut base-case oil-price forecasts, as well as exploring less likely bearish and bullish outcomes, as is common in commodity forecasting to scope out a range of scenarios under different conditions. Assuming a “typical” US recession, plus baseline expectations for supply, Brent was seen at $58 a barrel this December, and $50 in the same month next year, the Goldman analysts said in the note, titled “How Low Could Oil Prices Go?” Brent was last at $65.05 a barrel, after hitting a four-year low on Monday.
Why is Modi govt increasing petrol, diesel excise duties even when global oil prices are decreasing?
The government on Monday hiked excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 2 per litre. At a time when global crude prices are on a steady decline, the hike signals a fresh focus on ramping up govt revenues for possible capital expenditure after tax relief given in the Union Budget 2025. It may be noted here that the added cost won’t have to be borne by the ‘aam aadmi’. But they are set to pay Rs 50 per LPG cylinder more, starting tomorrow. Interestingly, fall in global crude prices has not yet translated into a fuel price relief for Indians, yet. However, Oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri hinted at a ‘wait and watch’ approach with respect to a cut in petrol and diesel prices. “Today I can tell you seriously. If the audience asks when will fuel prices come down further, I would say if this trend (low crude prices) continues, there is reasonable expectation (of a fuel price cut),” Puri said. In February, Nirmala Sitharaman had slashed personal income tax for the middle class, leaving a dent in the Centre’s direct tax revenue estimates. The Modi government also scrapped windfall taxes, giving major relief to oil companies like Reliance Industries, Nayera etc. As for the latest excise hike, Puri said the extra Rs 2 duty will add to the general kitty, and it will be utilized for reimbursing the LPG losses of the same (oil marketing) company. History is testament to the fact that the Modi government has, never in the 11 years of their rule, passed the benefit of low global oil prices, even when crude oil prices had fallen below zero in 2020, for the first time in history. A look back at the excise duty trajectory Between November 2014 and January 2016, the government had raised excise duty on petrol and diesel nine times, capitalising on a global crude oil crash. In that 15-month period, excise duty on petrol rose by Rs 11.77 per litre, while that on diesel jumped by Rs 13.47 per litre. This helped excise collections surge from Rs 99,000 crore in FY15 to a whopping Rs 2.42 lakh crore by FY17. Since then, fuel tax policy has swung with the tide of global crude prices. The Centre slashed excise by Rs 2 in October 2017 and again by Rs 1.50 in 2018. But in July 2019, it was back up by Rs 2 per litre. In March 2020, the government hiked excise duty by Rs 3 per litre on both petrol and diesel, and in a dramatic step, raised it again by Rs 13 and Rs 16 per litre respectively by May 2020. However, much of that was rolled back over the next two years as global crude prices surged to record highs, pushing petrol rates in Delhi to Rs 105.41 per litre and diesel to Rs 96.67 at their peak. Notably, just before the 2024 general election announcement, the Centre had trimmed fuel prices by Rs 2 per litre as a populist relief measure.
LPG price raised by Rs 50 per cylinder
The price of LPG cylinders has been increased by Rs 50 per 14.2kg cylinder for both subsidised and non-subsidised consumers with effect from April 8, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri announced on Monday. The price increase applies to both Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) beneficiaries as well as other consumers. “For PMUY beneficiaries, the price will rise from Rs 500 to Rs 550 per cylinder. For other consumers, it will increase from Rs803 to Rs 853,” the minister said.
India hikes excise duty on petrol and diesel
The excise duty on petrol and diesel was increased by ₹2 per litre each, effective April 8, 2025. The new rates are ₹13 per litre for petrol and ₹10 per litre for diesel, up from ₹11 and ₹8 per litre, respectively, according to the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas website. No, the retail prices of petrol and diesel are not expected to rise immediately, as the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has stated that public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs) will absorb the hike, offsetting it against a potential reduction in retail prices due to lower international oil prices, as reported by CNBC-TV18. In fact, Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri even said that retail fuel relief is likely if international crude oil prices drop below $65 per barrel. Who receives the revenue from this excise duty hike? The revenue from the excise duty hike goes to the central government and is collected by the Department of Revenue under the Ministry of Finance. It contributes to the national exchequer, funding various public expenditures such as infrastructure, healthcare, and subsidies.
Goldman Sachs Slashes Oil Price Forecast to Below $60 in 2026
Higher risks of recessions and higher-than-expected OPEC+ production prompted Goldman Sachs to slash again its oil price forecasts for 2026, days after it had already cut its price outlook in the wake of the U.S. tariffs announcement last week. Goldman Sachs’s analysts issued a new note dated April 6, in which they slashed their 2026 oil price forecasts by $4 per barrel—to $58 for Brent Crude prices and to $55 for the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude. On Friday, Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecast for 2025 by 5.5% for Brent crude and by 4.3% for West Texas Intermediate, citing the OPEC+ decision to boost production in May and the tariff barrage that President Trump unleashed. The bank also revised down its 2026 Brent crude forecast by 9% to $62 per barrel and its 2026 WTI forecast by 6.3% to $59 per barrel. Two days later, Goldman Sachs slashed the forecasts again and now expects Brent Crude to average below $60 per barrel next year, at $58, amid recession risks, slowing demand, and more supply from the OPEC+ producers. The investment bank had previously forecasted oil demand growth at 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year. Now it sees the growth at half this figure, at 300,000 bpd. There is a chance of oil prices rising from current levels—if the U.S. backs down from the tariffs, according to the bank. “Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses,” Goldman’s analysts wrote in the April 6 note carried by Reuters. Goldman Sachs last week raised the recession odds to 45% over the next 12 months, up from a 35% chance of a recession estimated previously. Goldman’s analysts cited “a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed.”
Good news ahead? Petrol, Diesel & LPG price cut coming soon?
Amid rising geopolitical tension and the sanction on various Oil Producing Companies (OPCs), India has diversified its petroleum import basket and is procuring crude from countries located at various geographical locations. The move will not only ensure security of crude supplies but also mitigate the risk of dependence on crude oil from single region. Is the Modi government considering a proposal to reduce the prices of petroleum products? This question has gained significance after a Lok Sabha MP raised concerns about the continuous rise in petroleum prices across the country. The MP sought details on the reasons behind the price surge and the measures being taken to stabilize fuel costs. He also asked about any new initiatives to curb the rising prices of petrol and diesel, especially in light of global sanctions imposed on several oil-producing companies (OPCs). Additionally, the MP inquired whether any high-level review has been conducted on the fluctuations in prices of petrol, diesel, crude oil, and domestic LPG . Responding to this, Suresh Gopi, Minister of State (MoS), Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas said that the prices of petrol and diesel are market determined and Public Sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) take appropriate decision on pricing of petrol and diesel. He added that the government took several steps to insulate common citizens from high international prices, which included diversifying the crude import basket, invoking the provisions of Universal Service Obligation to ensure availability of petrol & diesel in domestic market, increasing the blending of ethanol in petrol, etc.
Oil Price Rout Extends on Recession Fears
The price slump in crude oil that began last week has extended into this one as market players’ fears about a global recession deepen. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at just below $64 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $60.54 per barrel, both down by over 2% from Friday’s close. Last week, crude oil prices took a 7% dive after China announced retaliatory tariffs for U.S. imports, matching the U.S. rate of 34% on top of existing levies. The move was universally seen as bearish for crude oil, hence the effect on prices. “The primary driver of the decline is concern that tariffs will weaken the global economy,” Rakuten Securities analyst Satoru Yoshida told Reuters. “Additionally, a planned production increase by OPEC+ is also contributing to the selling pressure,” Yoshida also said. ING commodity analysts noted the OPEC+ decision on output as a major factor for recent oil price developments, attributing said decision to three reasons: one, U.S. sanction action against Venezuela and Iran; U.S. pressure on Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices; and a desire to punish overproducers such as Iraq and Kazakhstan. The Dutch bank followed Goldman Sachs in revising its oil price for the year, now expecting Brent crude to average $72 per barrel in 2025, versus $74 per barrel earlier, ING’s head of commodity strategy Warren Patterson said in a note today. “For now, our balance continues to show a modest deficit over 2Q25 and 3Q25, supporting our view that prices over this period should move modestly higher from current levels. However, this can change quickly, depending on OPEC+ policy and demand developments,” Patterson wrote. Rakuten Securities’ Yoshida, on the other hand, predicts WTI could drop to as little as $50 per barrel if the stock market panic extends in time. Goldman Sachs slashed its oil price forecast on Friday, now expecting Brent crude to average $69 per barrel in 2025 and WTI to average $66 per barrel.
GreenLine to raise $275 mn equity to fund green fuel, EV truck push
GreenLine Mobility Solutions, a logistics firm backed by the Essar Group, is raising $275 million in equity from a group of investors, including Nikhil Kamath, co-founder of online stock-trading platform Zerodha, at an undisclosed valuation. The Mumbai-based firm, which currently operates a fleet of 650 LNG trucks in India, aims to scale up to 10,000 heavy-duty vehicles over the next few years, powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG) and electricity. The $1 billion fresh investment reflects GreenLine’s ambition to offer greener logistics alternatives to Indian firms. “This investment in decarbonising road logistics aligns with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s e-drive initiative,” said Anshuman Ruia, a director of Essar, adding “India’s vision for a low-carbon future is taking shape, and GreenLine is proud to be at the forefront.”
Oil Drops, Markets Rattle as Trump Unleashes Tariffs
Oil prices slipped on Wednesday afternoon after initially climbing more than $1 as markets digested a sweeping new round of global tariffs announced by an aggrieved U.S. President Donald Trump from the Rose Garden. The announcement rattled equity markets and fueled uncertainty across commodities, despite initial gains. Both Brent and WTI crude futures lost ground on Wednesday afternoon, reversing gains made after Trump revealed that a minimum 10% tariff would be imposed on all countries exporting goods to the United States. Additionally, 60 countries with the largest trade imbalances — including China, the European Union, and Vietnam — now face even steeper levies. China, for example, will see its total tariff level soar to 54%, according to the White House. Despite the broad reach of the new tariffs, the energy sector was largely spared. A White House official confirmed that imports of oil, gas, and refined products are exempt from the measures. Canada — a key U.S. trade partner — was formally exempted from Wednesday’s reciprocal tariff action. However, the White House noted that non-compliant CUSMA (Canada–U.S.–Mexico Agreement) goods would still be subject to a 25% tariff, and non-compliant CUSMA energy and potash exports would face a 10% duty. While oil markets digested the news with a slight downward turn, broader equity markets saw a sharper reaction. S&P 500 futures dropped 3.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures tumbled 4.2%, falling below their March 13 intraday lows to levels not seen since last September. Still, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking on Bloomberg TV, attempted to calm jittery investors, calling the move “the certainty on tariffs markets have long craved.” Bessent urged investors to “embrace the clarity” brought by the administration’s trade position. For now, while energy markets appear buffered by the exemption, traders remain cautious amid fears that retaliatory measures and a potential global trade slowdown could ultimately weigh on crude demand.
Canada Plots Energy Escape Route from Trump’s America
The leaders of Canada’s two biggest political parties are promising expansion and modernization of energy infrastructure to reduce dependence on the United States for energy exports amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff and sovereignty threats. Mark Carney, the Prime Minister who replaced Justin Trudeau and is leading the Liberal Party ahead of the April 28 federal election, says that Canada’s principal investment imperatives include “expanding and modernizing our energy infrastructure so that we are less dependent both on foreign suppliers and the United States as our main customer.” The leader of the main opposition Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, vowed this week that if the Conservatives came to power after a 10-year Liberal rule, he would create a ‘Canada First’ National Energy Corridor to rapidly approve and build the infrastructure Canada needs to end its energy dependence on America, “so we can stand up to Trump from a position of strength.” The Liberals, who were trailing Conservatives for years under former PM Trudeau, are now ahead in the opinion polls and widening the lead over Conservatives as the new Liberal leader Carney is seen as more capable than Poilievre of standing up to President Trump’s threats. If the six-point lead of the Liberals holds until Election Day, Carney could be able to form Canada’s first majority government in a decade. Conservative leader Poilievre, however, is more vocal than Carney in Canada’s need to cut its overall trade and energy export dependence on the United States. Poilievre announced on Monday that he would create a ‘Canada First’ National Energy Corridor to fast-track approvals for transmission lines, railways, pipelines, and other critical infrastructure across Canada in a pre-approved transport corridor entirely within Canada, transporting Canadian resources within Canada and to the world while bypassing the United States. The corridor “will bring billions of dollars of new investment into Canada’s economy, create powerful paycheques for Canadian workers, and restore our economic independence,” the Conservative Party said. Poilievre’s plan is that all levels of government “will provide legally binding commitments to approve projects,” which would end the “endless regulatory limbo” for investors. “In 2024, Canada exported 98% of its crude oil to the United States. This leaves us too dependent on the Americans,” said Poilievre. “Our Canada First National Energy Corridor will get us out from under America’s thumb and enable us to build the infrastructure we need to sell our natural resources to new markets, bring home jobs and dollars, and make us sovereign and self-reliant to stand up to Trump from a position of strength.” The U.S. tariff threat was a wake-up call for Canadian policymakers that the federal and provincial governments may have too hastily scrapped over the past decade Alberta-to-coast pipeline projects that could have diversified Canada’s oil and gas exports. Last month, the chief executives of some of the largest Canadian energy companies called on Canada’s main political parties to declare a Canadian energy crisis and key projects in the “national interest,” which would speed up reforms, planning, and construction of new oil and gas pipelines and LNG terminals. The open letter from 14 CEOs representing the four largest pipeline companies and 10 largest oil and natural gas companies recommends five key steps to build new energy infrastructure—simplify regulation, commit to firm deadlines for project approvals, grow production, attract investments, and encourage Indigenous co-investment opportunities. On Tuesday, Poilievre committed to meeting all of the policy recommendations from Canada’s energy sector to end dependence on the U.S. market and unleash Canada’s economy. Poilievre challenged Carney to do the same and to repudiate his commitment to “keep it in the ground”. “Canada’s energy sector, the experts on energy growth, have told us what we need to do. Today, I am committing to meeting all of their urgent recommendations,” Poilievre said. Carney, for his part, announced last week a plan to diversify Canadian trade by improving Canada’s trade-enabling infrastructure. A Mark Carney-led Liberal government will inject US$3.5 billion (C$5 billion) into a new Trade Diversification Corridor Fund to accelerate projects at ports, railroads, inland terminals, airports, and highways.