Oil Set For Weekly Gain on China Trade Deal Hope
Crude oil prices were set for a weekly gain after a string of losses on the news of a trade war ceasefire between the U.S. and China, which sparked hopes the two would come to a mutually beneficial understanding that would end the tariff spat. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $64.64 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $61.72 per barrel, both up, albeit moderately, from the start of the week. According to Reuters, the weekly gain will be about 1%. The modesty of the weekly gain is likely related to a couple of solid bearish new developments on the geopolitical and the forecasting fronts. On the geopolitical front, reports emerged suggesting the U.S. and Iran were closer to a new nuclear deal than they had been for months. On the forecasting front, the International Energy Agency once again injected pessimism into oil markets predicting slower than previously expected oil demand growth—despite the anticipated end to the U.S.-Chinese trade war. Economic headwinds and record electric vehicle sales are set to materially slow down global oil demand growth for the rest of the year, the IEA said on Thursday. World oil demand rose by 990,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025. But the remainder of the year will see demand growth at just 650,000 bpd, the agency said in its closely-watched monthly Oil Market Report for May. The IEA has over the past few years built a reputation for pessimistic forecasts when it comes to oil demand—only to revise them when data from the physical market points in a different direction. In this case, we’ve seen a rebound in Chinese oil imports at the start of the second quarter of the year and a surge in Indian oil imports, which lifted them to an all-time high in March. In related recent news, Japanese refiners were scaling back their transition plans to refocus on oil.
Petronet LNG requests extra land for Dahej petrochemicals complex project
Petronet LNG Ltd, India’s largest gas importer, has requested additional land from the Gujarat government for a fabrication yard as part of its upcoming petrochemical project in Dahej. The company is investing ₹206.85 billion in the plant, construction of which is already underway. The project aims to meet the rising domestic demand for petrochemical products and enhance the company’s self-reliance in production. The plant will use imported ethane to produce key chemical components used in products such as plastics, detergents, and cosmetics. In addition, an estimated ₹50 billion in supplementary investment is planned in the vicinity of the plant. Fabrication yards are crucial for assembling infrastructure components for large industrial projects. The Prime Minister had laid the foundation stone for the petrochemicals complex of Petronet LNG, including ethane and propane handling facilities, in March last year. A senior state official stated that the project will convert propane into propylene through a Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH) unit, which will then be polymerized to produce polypropylene in a dedicated PP unit—supporting the goal of import substitution.
GAIL Plans 5-6 MTPA LNG Expansion by 2030
GAIL has announced ambitious plans to expand its LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) capacity by 5-6 MTPA under term deals by 2030. The company is also targeting the addition of around 255 new CNG stations over the next two years, signaling aggressive growth in the natural gas segment. The company is optimistic about the possibility of natural gas being brought under the GST regime soon, which could further support growth. Key Highlights of GAIL’s Expansion Plans: LNG Expansion: Targeting 5-6 MTPA more LNG by 2030. CNG Station Growth: Aiming for 255 new CNG stations in the next two years. Transmission Volume: Currently at 120-127 MSCMD, targeting 138-139 MSCMD in FY26. Natural Gas Under GST: GAIL expects positive regulatory changes soon.
Govt to hold pre-emption right over oil, gas in national emergency: Draft rules
The government will hold pre-emption rights over all oil and natural gas produced in the country in any event of national emergency, according to draft rules being framed under a revamped oilfields legislation. A pre-emption right (or preemptive right) is the legal right of a party – often a government or existing shareholder – to purchase or claim a product, asset, or resource before it is offered to others. The inclusion of such rights over crude oil – extracted from underground or beneath the seabed and refined into fuels like petrol and diesel – as well as natural gas, which is used for power generation, fertilizer production, CNG for vehicles, and piped cooking gas, is intended to help the government prioritize national interests and ensure public welfare during emergencies. The producer of oil and natural gas will be paid a “fair market price prevailing at the time of pre-emption”, the draft rules said. Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has invited comments on draft rules after Parliament earlier this year passed the Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Amendment Bill which replaced outdated provisions from the 1948 Act, to boost domestic production, attract investment, and support the country’s energy transition goals. “In the case of a national emergency in respect of petroleum products or mineral oil, Government of India shall, at all times, during such emergency, have the right of preemption of the mineral oils, refined petroleum or petroleum or mineral oil products produced from the crude oil or natural gas extracted from the leased area, or of the crude oil or natural gas where the lessee is permitted to sell, export or dispose of without it being refined within India,” the rules stated.
India takes green freight leap as LNG trucks hit Punes logistics corridor
A fleet of liquefied natural gas (LNG)-powered heavy-duty trucks was rolled out in Pune this week, marking a decisive shift toward low-emission transportation. The deployment, made possible through a strategic financial collaboration, represents one of the largest commercial transitions from diesel to alternative fuels in the country’s road freight ecosystem. With this, India’s green transport ambitions receive a real-world push, starting on the highways of Maharashtra. The rollout took place in Chakan, Pune a manufacturing and logistics hub underscoring the city’s growing importance in India’s clean mobility map. The new fleet forms part of a larger plan to put over 10,000 LNG and electric vehicles (EVs) on Indian roads in the coming years. The initiative aims to build an integrated network of 100 LNG refuelling stations and electric vehicle infrastructure nationwide. Such scale is expected to collectively reduce over one million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions annually roughly equivalent to taking more than 0.2 million petrol cars off the road each year. This transition comes at a critical time, as India’s transport sector is responsible for nearly 15% of its overall carbon emissions, according to estimates by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change. Despite efforts to electrify public transport and promote ethanol blending in fuels, the trucking industry has remained heavily reliant on diesel. By introducing high-performance LNG and EV trucks into the logistics mainstream, India is taking tangible steps towards bridging this clean-energy gap. The trucks, built for long-haul freight and industrial logistics, will serve sectors including e-commerce, metals, cement, oil and gas, and chemicals industries often criticised for their heavy carbon footprints. However, the vehicles’ rollout alone is not the story; it is the ecosystem being built around them. From investment backing by a leading non-banking financial company to the logistics operator’s plan for battery swapping and rapid charging stations, the scale and intent are noteworthy. By positioning these clean-energy trucks as viable and scalable, the project aims to overcome the cost and operational hurdles that have long plagued green logistics.
India ramps up security for petroleum refineries near western border
India has ramped up security and threat monitoring for Indian refineries and petroleum production facilities near the western border, people familiar with the matter said, citing preparations that include camouflaging exercises and activation of air defences. The heightened security covers installations that account for more than 38% of India’s total 257 million tonnes of annual refining capacity, located in the border states of Gujarat, Punjab, and Rajasthan “All security protocols are active, and both security agencies and refinery managements are prepared to thwart any attempt by hostile entities,” said a senior official who asked not to be named. Key petroleum installations under enhanced protection include Reliance Industries Ltd’s Jamnagar refineries, Nayara’s Vadinar refinery in Gujarat, HPCL Mittal Ltd’s Bathinda refinery in Punjab, and Vedanta Ltd’s Barmer oil fields in Rajasthan. India has capabilities to detect, intercept and destroy incoming ballistic missiles, ranking among the few nations with such capacities. “All air defence assets have been put at their highest levels,” said a second official, requesting anonymity.
U.S. Freeport LNG Export Plant Set to Resume Service After Outage
Freeport LNG in Texas is set to take more feedgas on Wednesday in a sign that the U.S. liquefied natural gas export plant is gradually resuming service after an outage on Tuesday, per LSEG gas flow data cited by Reuters. Freeport LNG, the company owning the plant, told the Texas environmental regulators on Tuesday that the interruption of power feed led to the shutdown of the three liquefaction trains at the export facility. Over the years, Freeport LNG has suffered more outages than other U.S. export facilities because it uses only electric motors for the liquefaction compressors, instead of gas turbines. GE, which has provided the motors, says that with 675 MW total electric power installed, Freeport LNG is the world’s largest all-electric LNG plant built to date. While all-electric driven liquefaction lowers emissions at the project, the plant is more susceptible to storms and other causes of power outages than other U.S. LNG export facilities. Freeport LNG has three operating liquefaction units, or trains, that have a combined baseload capacity of 1.98 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) and peak capacity of 2.14 Bcf/d. The facility shipped its first LNG cargo in September 2019, and it was the fifth U.S. LNG export terminal to come online in the Lower 48 states. Shutdowns at Freeport LNG shut in more than 10% of U.S. LNG export capacity, which drives European benchmark gas prices higher and U.S. domestic gas prices lower. That’s because with lower volumes of gas for export, more gas is available domestically in the United States. Early on Wednesday, benchmark U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub jumped by more than 5% to $3.640 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) as reports emerge that feedgas flows to Freeport LNG are recovering and as the early season heat is set to boost demand in the coming weeks.
India to save Rs 1.8 lakh cr on import bill on softening global oil prices
India, the world’s third largest oil importing and consuming nation, is likely to save as much as Rs 1.8 lakh crore on import of crude oil and LNG if the trend of softening international energy rates continues, Icra said Wednesday. India, which meets over 85 per cent of its crude oil needs through imports, spent USD 242.4 billion on buying crude from overseas in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025. With domestic production meeting roughly half of the demand, it also spent USD 15.2 billion on import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the fiscal. Oil prices in international markets fell to over four-year low of USD 60.23 per barrel earlier this week on fears of rising global supply at a time when demand outlook is uncertain. Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate crude, which fell to their lowest since February 2021, have since risen to USD 62.4 on signs of more Europe and China demand and less US output. Still the rates are USD 20 per barrel lower than March 2024 when petrol and diesel prices were cut by Rs 2 per litre each ahead of general elections. “Icra expects average crude prices for FY2026 (April 2025 to March 2026 fiscal year) to remain in the USD 60-70 per barrel range,” the rating agency said in a note. At these levels, earnings of upstream companies is estimated at Rs 25,000 crore for FY2026. Upstream companies are ones that produce crude oil. “However, there would be savings of Rs 1.8 lakh crore for crude imports and Rs 6,000 crore for LNG imports,” it said. For fuel retailers, the marketing margins on auto-fuels will remain healthy, while LPG under-recoveries are likely to reduce, Icra said. Uncertainty related to global tariffs and their impact on growth, coupled with an announcement by OPEC+ to steadily withdraw their production cuts, starting with 411,000 barrels per day addition from May 2025 and another 411,000 bpd from June 2025, have resulted in oil prices declining from about USD 77 a barrel as on March 31 to about USD 60-62. Stating that India meets a large portion of its domestic crude oil requirements through imports, Icra said in the scenario where crude remains in USD 60-70 a barrel range, the profit before tax for upstream players in FY2026 is expected to be lower by Rs 25,000 crore. In spite of this, Icra foresees the capex plans of domestic upstream players to remain intact. Marketing margins on auto fuels for oil marketing companies (OMCs) would remain above long term average of Rs 2.5-4 a litre and under recoveries on LPG are expected to reduce with decline in crude prices. While petrol and diesel prices are deregulated, the government controls cooking gas LPG prices. OMCs sell the fuel at way below cost and are compensated for the under-recovery by way of subsidy from the government. Lower LPG under-recovery and compensation by the government would support profitability of downstream companies, despite the increase in excise duty on auto fuels by Rs 2 a litre with effect from April 8, 2025. However, there would be inventory losses for refiners owing to the sharp decline in crude prices. Moreover, further hikes in excise duty can not be ruled out. Icra said the pricing for Administered Price Mechanism (APM) gas and LNG imported from Qatar are linked to crude oil prices. “Decline in crude prices will lead to a moderation in gas prices, which could translate to significant savings on term LNG imports. If crude oil prices sustain between USD 60-70 per barrel, Icra projects the savings in Qatar LNG imports at Rs 6,000 crore in FY2026 vis-a-vis FY2025,” the note added.
Iraq’s Oil Exports to India Topped $29 Billion in 2024
OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, exported crude oil and petroleum products worth $29.58 billion to India last year, trade data reported by Shafaq News showed on Tuesday. Iraq, which was India’s top crude oil supplier before 2022 and the flow of cheap Russian oil, unwanted or banned in the West, held in 2024 a market share of about 20% of all crude oil imports into India, the world’s third-largest crude importer. Total Iraqi crude and refined petroleum product exports to India were valued at $29.58 billion, of which $28.6 billion was crude oil, refined products and derivatives accounted for $1.77 billion of the trade, and petroleum coke, bitumen, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports were valued at $223.5 million, according to the trade data reported by Shafaq News. Over the past four years, Iraqi crude and product exports to India have grown by 15% each year. However, Iraq is now India’s second-biggest crude supplier, surpassed by Russia, whose cheap oil has gained a lot of market share in India after Russia diverted crude exports to China and India in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Western embargoes and sanctions on Russia’s oil exports and trade. The share of OPEC crude supply in India slumped to an all-time low of below 50% of India’s crude oil imports in the 2024-2025 fiscal year, as Russian oil flows continued to rise and dent the share of the Middle Eastern producers. Russia is an ally of OPEC in the OPEC+ agreements to “stabilize the market,” but it has been eating into the share of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and other major Middle Eastern OPEC producers in India. The price-sensitive Indian buyers have preferred cheap Russian crude supply, when available. India will continue to buy Russian oil if it is sold below the $60 per barrel price cap and delivered on non-sanctioned tankers and without any involvement of sanctioned companies or individuals, Indian officials said earlier this year after the U.S. sanctions in January created market chaos for several weeks before tanker supply chains adapted.
The Market Is Well Supplied – So Why Is Saudi Arabia Raising Oil Prices?
OPEC+ served two surprises to the oil trading world in a matter of weeks. First, it said it would bring back three times the amount of oil supply it planned to originally in May. Then, it said it would repeat the exercise in June. And then it emerged that Saudi Arabia is raising selling prices for Asia when it would have made more sense to cut them, on the face of it. OPEC+ is in the spotlight and it’s probably enjoying it as prices slide further down and U.S. shale drillers curb activity. OPEC+ said in April it would add 411,000 bpd to its collective output in May, throwing the oil market in disarray after curbing supply for months in a bid to prop up oil prices. The move was such a reversal of tactics that it was quite understandable that it took everyone by surprise. Prices fell. Speculation abounded, with analysts suggesting anything from Saudi Arabia doing Trump’s bidding to being so desperate they’d opted for flooding the market in the tried and tested method of dealing with competition in a rather final way. Officially, OPEC+ members that have been cutting their output said that the market fundamentals were healthy enough to absorb not one but two monthly boosts of 411,000 bpd each. Unofficially, the story is that the Saudis got fed up with the Iraqis and the Kazakhs who have been overproducing pretty much since the production cuts began. Kazakhstan really annoyed Riyadh, per that story, by not just overproducing but reaching record-high output levels earlier this year. Some cited data about Asian crude oil imports as evidence that OPEC+ is trying to pump up a narrative that does not reflect reality. The argument is that imports into the biggest demand region are weakening and global inventories are only slightly below the five-year average. So, we have a pretty well-supplied market, and OPEC+ is shooting itself in the leg with the output additions. Of course, there is also the oil demand outlook. The oil demand outlook is grim if one follows the International Energy Agency. But Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s leader, does not follow the International Energy Agency. In fact, Saudi Arabia has a serious issue with the IEA and its forecasts, which the Saudis have slammed as blatantly biased in favor of the energy transition. Right now, the demand outlook is widely believed to be grim because of Trump’s tariff offensive against the world of trade. This outlook was a big reason why traders started the selloff in oil that brought prices down and then extended it as OPEC+ surprised said market with its two consecutive decisions to add more to that well-supplied market than initially planned. And then the news came that Saudi Arabia is raising its official selling price for crude for Asian buyers. In other news, OPEC’s total for April was down by 200,000 bpd, and not just because of the sudden slump in Venezuelan production after Chevron was kicked out by Trump. The UAE and Saudi Arabia also cut —and the UAE was given the green light to actually raise production. While traders and analysts try to wrap their heads around the logic guiding OPEC+, oil prices have rebounded because lower prices always and invariably stimulate greater demand for an essential commodity such as crude oil. Brent is back above $60 per barrel, and WTI has recovered to $58. This, of course, does not mean prices can’t fall again and stay fallen for an extended period of time. Perhaps at some point, it would even become officially clear whether the Saudis are doing Trump’s bidding or simply looking after their own interests as they have done repeatedly over the years. In the meantime, OPEC’s competitors will be suffering. This might even be one big reason why the cartel is adding supply if history is any indication.