Goldman Sachs Doubles Down on Bearish Oil Outlook Despite Rising Demand
Goldman Sachs analysts issued yet another update to their oil price forecast, reiterating expectations of weaker prices this year and next, on the back of substantial growth in non-OPEC supply—excluding U.S. shale. In a note, the analysts said “oil production growth from non-OPEC ex Russia ex shale top projects will likely accelerate to 1MB/d over the next two years”, adding that natural gas liquids production was also set for a rise over the period, thanks to the launch of new projects in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The exclusion of U.S. shale from the prediction for non-OPEC output growth is quite significant, seeing as non-OPEC production forecasts normally focus on U.S. shale. Yet with prices depressed, producers in the shale patch have begun to retrench, and production growth is already slowing down. Indeed, Goldman’s analysts said that if prices remained subdued over the next two years, the peak in U.S. shale production growth could come earlier than previously expected. There is, however, a possibility that Goldman Sachs analysts are overestimating the supply situation: UBS said in an update that global visible oil inventories over the first quarter pointed to a tightly balanced market – not the substantial surplus Goldman and others have assumed, Kpler’s Amena Bakr wrote on X earlier today. The Swiss bank said it expected revisions in both supply and demand projections on the basis of the new data. Goldman has a 2025 price forecast of $60 per barrel for Brent crude and $56 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate. Goldman’s analysts expect the benchmarks to fall further next year, to $56 for Brent crude and $52 for WTI. The forecast has not been revised upwards despite a revision in demand projections, with the bank now expecting stronger demand growth this year, at 600,000 barrels daily, and 400,000 barrels daily in 2026.
GAIL issues swap tender for two LNG cargoes, sources say
GAIL (India) Ltd has issued a swap tender, offering two U.S.-loaded liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in exchange for two deliveries to India, two industry sources said
India Fears Oil Spill as Cargo Ship Sinks in Arabian Sea
Indian authorities and coast guard were mobilized on Monday to contain an oil spill after a cargo ship sank off India’s West coast this weekend, leaking marine fuel and fuel from containers. Liberia-flagged container vessel MSC ELSA 3 sent a distress signal to authorities on Saturday, May 24, the Indian Coast Guard said. The vessel departed from the port of Vizhinjam Port on May 23, bound for Kochi with ETA on May 24. However, following the distress signal, the vessel capsized and sank in the early hours of May 25, reportedly due to flooding in one of the holds, the coast guard said on Sunday. All 24 crew were rescued safely. The vessel was carrying 640 containers, including 13 containing hazardous cargo and 12 with calcium carbide. Additionally, the ship had 84.44 metric tons of diesel and 367.1 metric tons of furnace oil in its tanks. The Indian Coast Guard has activated a comprehensive Pollution Response preparedness and is working in close coordination with the administration of the Indian state of Kerala to address all possible scenarios. Coast Guard aircraft equipped with advanced oil spill mapping technology are conducting aerial assessment of the affected area. On Sunday, the state government of Kerala issued an alert to all Kerala coastal areas to warn of an oil spill. “Besides the oil in the fallen containers, marine fuel used in the ship has also leaked,” the Chief Minister’s Office said in a statement carried by The Indian Express. “As the oil slick can reach anywhere along the Kerala coast, an alert has been sounded across the coastal belt. The containers are drifting in the sea at a speed of 3 km per hour,” the Kerala state authorities added. The state government has banned fishing in an area of 20 nautical miles away from the ship that sunk.
Aramco Considers Asset Sales to Raise Cash
Saudi Aramco is reportedly exploring asset sales as a means of increasing the availability of funds to fuel its international expansion and existing operations, according to unnamed sources who spoke to Reuters. The sources told the publication that the Saudi state major had asked investment banks to come up with ideas on how best to make its assets generate some cash. Another two sources told Reuters the asset sales could help Aramco in its efforts to boost the efficiency of its operations and reduce costs. Aramco on Tuesday reported a drop in 2024 profits and guided for a 30% lower total dividend for this year, which would further strain the finances of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. In March, Aramco, which is the world’s single biggest crude producer and exporter, reported a net profit of $106.2 billion for 2024, down from $121.3 billion for 2023 as average oil prices fell last year compared to 2023 levels and as Saudi Arabia continues to curb production as part of the OPEC+ agreement. For the fourth quarter, Aramco’s board declared a base dividend of $21.1 billion, up by 4.2% year-over-year. However, the so-called performance-linked dividend was slashed to just $200 million for Q4, in a sign that low oil prices are starting to bite. Aramco is the biggest contributor to Saudi Arabia’s budget revenues and a vital source of funding for government projects. Because the Saudi government is quite ambitious with such projects, the budget breakeven price of oil has gone up to over $90 per barrel—even though Aramco has some of the lowest production costs in the world at its conventional oilfie.ds Because of this high breakeven, Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit hit $15.6 billion in the first quarter of this year—more than half of what the finance ministry has forecast for the full year.
Oil Prices Rise as Trump Extends EU Tariff Deadline
Crude oil prices began trade with a gain this week following the news that President Donald Trump had extended the deadline for a trade deal with the European Union to early July. The extension was granted to Brussels after Commission president Ursula con der Leyen said the EU needed more time to draft a deal and after Trump said he’d slap 50% tariffs on EU imports beginning next month because the EU deal was so slow in coming. “A nice push higher in crude oil and U.S. equity futures this morning after U.S. President Trump extended the deadline,” IG analyst Tony Sycamore told Reuters. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $64.96 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $61.68, both up from Friday, after posting yet another weekly loss last week on the prospect of a nuclear deal between the United States and Iran, and more production from OPEC+. The second factor, by the way, is keeping a lid on prices, countering bullish developments such as the tariff delay for the European Union. There have been reports that OPEC+ will add another 411,000 barrels daily to its combined output in July after agreeing to add the same amount in June. Due to the perception of an oversupplied market, this prospect is having an extended negative effect on prices. Meanwhile, the latest round of talks between the United States and Iran regarding the latter’s nuclear program ended on Friday in Rome with what media perceived as limited progress. Both sides are sticking to their conditions but both appear to be open to further negotiations. “We have just completed one of the most professional rounds of talks … We firmly stated Iran’s position … The fact that we are now on a reasonable path, in my view, is itself a sign of progress,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told media as quoted by Reuters. “The talks continue to be constructive – we made further progress, but there is still work to be done,” a U.S. official whom Reuters did not name said. This suggests that it may still be a while until Iranian crude returns to global markets without restrictions, so the next oil price slump is not yet around the corner.
Saudi Aramco eyes asset sales for expansion amid lower oil prices: Report
Saudi state oil giant Aramco is exploring potential asset sales to free up funds, two people with knowledge of the matter said, as it pursues an international expansion and weathers lower crude prices. Aramco is the world’s largest oil-producing company and the main source of Saudi state revenue. The firm will slash dividend payouts by nearly a third this year as lower oil prices hit its income. The company has asked investment bankers to pitch ideas for how to raise funds from its assets, the people said. They declined to say which assets could be sold or name the banks involved. Aramco is looking to improve efficiency and cut costs, according to two other people with knowledge of the matter, and an option under consideration would be asset sales, one of them said. The four sources declined to be named because they are not authorised to speak to media. Aramco is the engine of the Saudi economy and its sprawling business includes units for aviation, construction and sports.
China’s Oil Demand to Peak Within 5 Years as India’s Continues to Climb
China’s decades-long reign as the world’s top oil demand driver is nearing its end, according to new research published by Moody’s Investors Service demonstrating that China’s crude demand is expected to peak within the next 3–5 years, while India will continue to hold the lead in global oil demand growth through at least 2030. Moody’s attributes China’s demand plateau to slowing economic growth, a shrinking population, a plateau in vehicle ownership, and a rapid shift toward EVs and energy diversification. In contrast, India is poised for 3–5% annual oil demand growth this decade, underpinned by rising per capita consumption, population growth, and rapid infrastructure expansion. “India will remain the primary source of incremental global oil demand through 2030,” Moody’s analysts noted, adding that the country’s oil import dependence will increase as domestic production remains subdued. According to India’s Ministry of Petroleum, crude consumption is already tracking 4.3% higher year-over-year in Q1 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects India’s oil demand will rise from 5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 to over 6.5 million bpd by 2030. Meanwhile, signs of a peak in Chinese demand have been mounting. Earlier this year, OilPrice.com reported that Chinese refiners were already scaling back crude imports—down nearly 600,000 bpd from last year—amid weak industrial activity and record EV adoption. This eastward demand shift has major implications for long-term pricing, global refining strategy, and upstream investment. For exporters such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, India is now the market to watch. For oil markets, the era of “China-as-demand-engine” is rapidly fading, with India more than ready to hold tight to its status as lead driver of oil demand growth.
Asian Buyers Increase Purchases of Murban Oil
A substantial drop in the spot market price for Emirati crude has triggered a demand surge from Asia, Reuters reported today, citing data for a record trade of 10 million barrels of Murban crude on an S&P Global Platts market-of-close basis this month. “Asian markets have been oversupplied with light grades for most of this cycle, driven by outages at Japanese refiners, increased UAE availability this cycle following the accelerated OPEC+ unwind, and planned maintenance at Saudi Arabia’s Petro Rabigh refinery,” Energy Aspects analyst Richard Jones told Reuters. Yet demand for Murban has done well as its premium on the spot market has dropped to the lowest in six months. The grade represents some 66% of Adnoc’s total oil production and has a lead role in price setting in the Middle East. According to Reuters, Murban affects the pricing of 14 million barrels of oil exports to Asia daily. The Emirati oil major expects production of the grade to top 1.7 million barrels daily in June, July and August, which means more downward pressure on its price and likely drive stronger demand from Asian buyers. One unnamed Reuters source said output of the key grade could top 2 million barrels daily in July. Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that a couple of Chinese independent refiners had bought two Murban cargos in a sign of a shift from Iranian crude to alternatives amid the U.S. sanction squeeze on one of China’s top discount oil suppliers. The price of the Emirati crude was $5 above the ICE Brent contract for August, the report noted. In March and April, the U.S. sanctioned two small independent Chinese refiners for purchasing and transporting Iranian oil, as part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran to force it to negotiations over its nuclear program.
India poised to end China’s dominance era in oil demand: Moody’s
After more than a decade of dominance by China, the global oil and gas spotlight is shifting, and it’s India that’s now centre stage. According to a latest Moody’s report, India is poised to overtake China as the biggest driver of global oil and gas demand growth over the next decade. The shift marks a dramatic rebalancing, powered by India’s accelerating industrialisation, massive infrastructure push, and a growing middle class with increasing mobility needs. But, on the other side of the story is a slowing Chinese economy and a rapid rise in electric vehicle adoption, both of which are cooling the country’s once-insatiable thirst for fuel. “Demand will grow faster in India than in China over the next decade, as China’s economic growth slows and penetration of new energy vehicles accelerates. Crude consumption in China will peak in the next 3-5 years, while in India we expect annual growth of 3%-5% in the same period,” the Moody’s report read. India’s economic engine shows no signs of slowing. Real GDP growth is projected at 6.3% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, putting the country firmly at the top of the G-20 growth charts, highlighted Moody’s report. This robust expansion, combined with rising demand for transportation fuel and stepped-up investments by state-run oil marketing companies in refining capacity, is expected to keep oil demand climbing sharply. It’s not just oil. Gas, too, is becoming a bigger piece of India’s energy puzzle. The government plans to increase natural gas’s share in the energy mix from around 6% today to 15% by 2030. Demand is being driven by fast-growing sectors like fertilisers, petrochemicals, and city gas networks. Annual growth is projected between 4% and 7% through the end of the decade. Yet challenges such as affordability and patchy infrastructure remain barriers to faster adoption.
Blue Energy Motors Crosses 50 Million Km With LNG Trucks, Cuts 14,000 Tonnes Of CO2 Emissions
Blue Energy Motors, a pioneer in green-energy heavy-duty trucks, has surpassed 50 million km on the Indian highways saving 14,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions since the deployment of its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)-powered green trucks. This achievement is equivalent to the annual carbon absorption of over 5,60,000 trees. The transport sector, particularly commercial vehicles, accounts for a disproportionate share of carbon emissions. According to the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, commercial vehicles contribute nearly 40 per cent of CO2 emissions in road transport while comprising only 4 per cent of the total vehicle fleet. These figures highlight the urgent need for sustainable alternatives like LNG and EV, which have emerged as game-changers in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Commenting on the achievement, Anirudh Bhuwalka, CEO of Blue Energy Motors, said “At Blue Energy Motors, we are not only redefining freight mobility with alternate fuel solutions but also building a comprehensive ecosystem of sustainable commercial vehicles for the future. We remain steadfast in our vision of a cleaner, greener tomorrow leading the shift toward sustainable mobility in India and beyond.” LNG-powered trucks offer a cleaner and more sustainable alternative to diesel vehicles, cutting CO2 emissions by up to 30 per cent while significantly reducing particulate matter and nitrogen oxides. When deployed in suitable long-haul applications, these benefits amplify, making LNG technology a cornerstone of India’s green logistics transition. Blue Energy Motors’ trucks are already facilitating a shift toward cleaner logistics, helping fleet owners reduce emissions and operational costs.