Indian billionaire seeks replacement for Russian oil – Bloomberg
The largest oil refinery owned by Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani has started looking for an alternative to Russian oil, Bloomberg reports The procurement policy of the Indian company Reliance Industries has come under scrutiny after the EU imposed new restrictions on diesel produced from Russian oil. According to traders, at the end of last week, Reliance purchased Murban oil from Abu Dhabi, a rare purchase for the company. Usually, the company buys cheaper grades, such as Russian Urals and heavy Middle Eastern grades. The purchase of Murban immediately after the sanctions package was introduced indicates a possible change in strategy. According to informed sources, Reliance has started looking for ways to diversify its purchases to reduce its dependence on Russia. So far, Russia remains the company’s largest oil supplier this year. How Reliance profited from war Reliance and other Indian refiners were among the biggest beneficiaries of Moscow’s war against Ukraine. Europe refused to buy Russian oil, which led to lower prices for its supply. Indian companies actively bought cheap oil and processed it into diesel fuel, which they then sold to European customers. According to Kpler, almost half of Reliance’s oil imports this year came from Russia. Exports to Europe and new risks About 20% of Reliance’s total production, including diesel, was exported to Europe. Now, the company is at the center of pressure from a new package of EU sanctions that will come into effect on January 21 next year. Although it is too early to talk about a sharp abandonment of Russian oil, traders note the first signs of a search for alternative suppliers in the Middle East. Reliance will have to find almost 600,000 barrels of oil per day from other suppliers. It is unclear to what extent this will be possible and at what price. India criticized the new EU sanctions. According to Foreign Minister Vikram Misri, a balance must be maintained when imposing secondary sanctions.
BP India Chief: India-UK free trade agreement to boost energy cooperation, investments
The long-coveted free trade agreement between India and the UK will pave the way for increased collaboration and investment in the energy sector, including in renewables, according to Kartikeya Dube, Head of Country and Chairman bp India. “The UK India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is a great step towards enhancing trade relationship between two partner nations,” he said, commenting on the historic signing of the pact. The world’s fifth and sixth largest economies on Thursday signed a landmark free trade agreement that will cut tariffs on goods from cosmetics and textiles to whisky and cars and allow more market access for businesses in the two nations. The deal, the UK’s biggest such agreement since Brexit and India’s first with a European economy, aims to expand the 42.6 billion pound trade by a further 25.5 billion pounds by 2040. The pact was signed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the UK. “This will only enhance easier trade of goods and services but will also enable a seamless flow of talent and expertise,” Dube said. “In the energy sector, this will encourage collaborations and investments including renewables.” Under the FTA, 99 per cent of Indian exports will face zero duties in the UK. In return, Britain’s exports to India will see a 90 per cent cut in duties, with most goods becoming fully tariff-free within a decade. While India has opened up its market to several categories of consumer goods, including chocolates, biscuits, meats and cosmetics, New Delhi will get to export textiles, footwear, sports goods and toys, among others, to the UK.
Russia Oil Trouble Hits: Shipowners And Oil Traders Avoiding Russia-Backed Nayara Energy In India; Impact After EU Sanctions
European Union’s latest round of sanctions on Russian oil have already begun to hit a refinery in India. Oil companies and vessel operators are distancing themselves from India’s Nayara Energy Ltd., following the European Union’s recent sanctions that specifically targeted the company. According to shipbrokers, vessel operators have become hesitant to engage with Nayara this week, whether for exporting refined products or importing crude oil. The Indian refinery has Rosneft PJSC as a significant shareholder, holding a 49.13% stake. Ship-tracking information from Bloomberg revealed that a vessel called the Talara reversed course and departed from Vadinar port on Sunday. According to shipbrokers, the vessel was scheduled to collect a fuel shipment, presumably diesel, from Nayara. However, the scheduled collection was cancelled in response to Friday’s sanctions, leaving the cargo unloaded.
India’s gas supply dries up amidst price swings
India’s gas-fired power sector is facing a severe decline, with its share in the country’s electricity mix falling to just 2% from 13% more than a decade ago largely due to volatile global prices and limited production, according to analysts. Thirty-one gas power plants that accounted for 32% of the nation’s total gas-based generation capacity have failed to produce electricity this fiscal year and are now considered stranded assets, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis “High and unstable liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices make it less appealing for Indian industries, especially for fertiliser production, which uses the most energy in India,” Purva Jain, an energy specialist for gas and international advocacy at IEEFA, told Asian Power. Gas-fired power is losing out to more competitive renewable energy sources, she pointed out. She noted that while the government provides significant subsidies to the fertiliser sector to mask the real cost of gas, this came at a heavy fiscal cost. “Whilst this helps consumers, it cost the government a huge $30 billion in 2023 after gas prices jumped in 2022.” Despite government intervention, high LNG prices continue to limit gas competitiveness. Jain noted that even at a delivered LNG price of $8 per million British Thermal Units (MMBtu), the cost of electricity from gas rises to ₹17 per unit—compared with ₹5–₹6 for coal and ₹6 for solar-plus-storage. “India’s fuel prices must fall to $5 to $5.7 per MMBtu for gas-fired power plants to compete with coal and renewables,” she added. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a 60% increase in gas use by India’s power sector by 2030, targeting a 15% share in the country’s total energy mix. “With an existing LNG import capacity of close to 50 million tonnes per annum and more under construction, India will have the import infrastructure to support this,” Paul Everingham, CEO at the Asia Natural Gas and Energy Association, said in an emailed reply to questions. But distribution networks behind the import terminals must be expanded, he added. Jain said most LNG import terminals are underused, with six out of seven operating below 50% capacity last fiscal year. Regulatory reforms are now being proposed to address these infrastructure bottlenecks and improve gas market planning, she added. Everingham expects global LNG supply to grow significantly, with new volume from the US, Australia, and Qatar. These will have “a positive impact on the affordability of LNG for nations like India, particularly if long-term supply contracts can be implemented,” he added.
U.S. Majors Cash In as Permian Dominance Widens the Oil Gap
Upstream oil and gas—industry-speak for the exploration and production end of the business—has always been a game of geology, timing, and money. Right now, U.S. oil majors are holding the better hand in the world of E&P. And the reason is simple: they’ve got the Permian, and Europe doesn’t. According to Wood Mackenzie, crude and condensate production across the U.S. Lower 48 has hit an all-time high of 11.3 million barrels per day, but is on the cusp of peaking. They forecast output will start a slow decline by year-end, dropping by 500,000 bpd by 2027. But for ExxonMobil and Chevron, who dominate the Permian Basin, the story is different. Their growth runway is intact—and profitable. This divergence in fortune comes just as global demand projections are muddying the waters. OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook sees global oil demand hitting 123 million bpd by 2050, requiring $18.2 trillion in new oil and gas investment. The IEA, by contrast, insists demand will peak before 2030. But regardless of who’s right, no one’s arguing that Permian oil is uncompetitive. With oil major breakevens below $45, according to WoodMac, along with WTI and ultra-low carbon intensity, the Permian is the upstream gift that keeps on giving. WoodMac expects ExxonMobil’s Permian output to rise 55% to 2.3 million boe/d by decade’s end, holding steady through 2040. Chevron is expected to churn out a 25% increase, to 1.2 million boe/d by 2030. In both cases, the Permian will supply nearly a third of total output—onshore, low-cost, and infrastructure-rich. It’s not just scale—it’s resilience. Even as the broader U.S. rig count drops (down 7 last week alone, to 544), these majors are using AI and advanced analytics to keep well costs low and recovery factors trending up. Goldman Sachs recently declared the U.S. shale boom years officially over. But that misses the nuance. Yes, the easy growth is gone. But for majors with prime Tier 1 acreage and deep capital pools, this isn’t the end—it’s the monetization phase. The focus now is on harvesting cash, not chasing barrels. What makes the Permian such a strategic fortress isn’t just its size—it’s the rare combination of geology, infrastructure, and optionality. With thousands of drilled-but-uncompleted wells, ample takeaway capacity, and unmatched midstream connectivity, operators can toggle activity up or down faster than anywhere else on earth. That responsiveness gives U.S. majors a tactical edge in volatile markets. And as capital discipline replaces boom-era exuberance, it’s the companies with scale and flexibility that will win. The Permian isn’t just a resource—it’s a lever for navigating the next two decades of uncertainty, and Exxon and Chevron are the only ones strong enough to pull it with confidence. European majors—BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Equinor—face a different calculus. Shell sold its Permian assets in 2021. BP and Shell have largely flat production outlooks, Woodmac says, hamstrung by underwhelming exploration and a delayed strategic pivot back toward upstream. By contrast, TotalEnergies and Equinor are actively building their U.S. Lower 48 positions, especially in gas, complementing their LNG portfolios. TotalEnergies has stitched together a respectable gas footprint in the U.S. through recent M&A. BP’s Lower 48 output is around 440,000 boe/d, about one-fifth of its global total. But they’re still playing catch-up in the Permian oil race, and entry now comes at a premium—if you can find an entry point at all. As WoodMac notes, post-consolidation, high-quality opportunities are scarce. That’s what makes the U.S. majors’ position so strategic. The Permian offers flexibility, scale, and adaptability in a way no international play open to IOCs can match. And as gas demand rises to fuel AI-driven electricity needs and LNG export growth, the associated gas volumes from the Permian are another tailwind—especially given their near-zero breakeven costs. For the EuroMajors, the challenge now is clear: make the most of what’s left on the table. That means doubling down on exploration, being opportunistic with M&A, and rethinking upstream as a long-term value driver—not just a bridge to renewables. TotalEnergies and Eni have made headway here, with exploration-led growth and diversified portfolios. Shell and BP? They’re late to the pivot and low on leverage. In the race to stay relevant in a stronger-for-longer oil world, unless Europe’s biggest players get bolder, the gap between US majors and Europe’s is only going to widen.
New EU Russia curbs may bolster Indian oil refiners’ reliance on traders
Indian private refiners that have leveraged cheap Russian crude to boost margins will be forced to find workarounds and rely more on traders to find new markets for their products after the latest round of European Union sanctions, traders and industry sources said. Russia is India’s top oil supplier, and refiners such as Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy have benefited in recent years from pressure on Russian crude prices from sanctions linked to its invasion of Ukraine. Many have then exported refined products to buyers in Europe. However in its 18th package of sanctions against Russia, approved on Friday, the European bloc banned imports of refined petroleum products made from Russian crude coming from third countries, excluding a handful of Western nations.
India’s decision to raise oil import from the US is more political than commercial
President Trump’s trade and tariff tantrums seem to be strongly working on India. The country’s crude oil imports from the United States surged by 51 percent during the first half of the current year ignoring the very high cost of import, including shipping, and travel time from the US ports. The political undercurrents, involving India’s ongoing trade negotiations with the US, are believed to be significantly responsible for the strategic shift despite a high time and cost burden. India, the world’s third largest consumer of petroleum, is the second largest importer of crude oil. The country is almost 90 percent import dependent on petroleum oil. The import focus has lately shifted substantially from traditional suppliers in West Asia to Russia and the US for price and diplomatic reasons. Thanks to the low price of crude oil from the Western sanctions-hit Russia, the latter has emerged as the single largest oil supplier to India since the middle of last year. China is also a major importer of Russian oil. Since the middle of last year, India has been playing hide-and-seek with China to become the largest buyer of Russian oil. Presently, India is using a new much-shorter sea route – the Eastern Maritime Corridor – significantly boosting commodity trade between the two countries, especially crude oil shipments. The Russian Urals crude oil price is $2.00 per barrel below the $60 per barrel limit imposed by Western nations amid weak Brent prices. The price of US Brent oil is around $69 per barrel. The new eastern route from Vladivostok to Chennai is translating into savings on two counts: shipment times between the two countries and thereby transportation costs. Earlier this year, India was under big trade pressure from the US to take steps towards making Washington “a leading supplier of oil and gas to India”, which could help the US bridge the trade deficit with India. US President Donald Trump asked India to step up oil imports from his country after his last meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington. Trump added that the US will “hopefully,” be India’s top oil and gas supplier. It sounded rather ominous or more like a warning as in 2024-25, India’s trade surplus with the US reached a record level of $41.18 billion, the largest from any country, from the $35.32 billion surplus it logged in the previous fiscal. India’s exports to the US grew by 11.6 percent to $86.51 billion. Its imports from the US increased by 7.44 percent to $45.33 billion. The most shocking part is: India’s one-sided foreign trade with China is leading to increasingly large trade deficits with that country. Trump is believed to have been intrigued by the fact that while India is focussed to benefit more from the US trade, its trade deficit with China reached an all-time high at $99.2 billion in 2024-25 and, at the same time, India’s sheepish reaction to China’s growing import restrictions from India. The country’s exports to China contracted by 14.5 percent to only $14.25 billion, compared to $16.66 billion in the previous fiscal. Now, Trump is ready to enforce a new trade deal to balance the US-India trade. This explains India’s sudden spike in crude oil imports from the US, this year. The country’s oil imports from the US jumped as much as over 270 percent year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, underscoring Delhi’s strategy of enhancing American imports amid prolonging trade pact negotiations. India is also importing more high-cost oil from distant Brazil purely for diplomatic reasons. The reason being advanced by India in support of its oil import decision to purchase substantially more from the US – also partly from Brazil – is that the country is diversifying its sources of crude oil in a volatile geopolitical and geo-economic environment. It may be noted that Brazil’s President Lula de Silva called Prime Minister Narendra Modi to convey condolences at the loss of lives in the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22. At President Lula’s instance, the 17th BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro condemned the Pahalgam terror attack among others and strongly supported India’s inclusion as a permanent member in the UN Security Council
Oil sans Russia
India’s confidence in navigating a potential cut-off in Russian oil supplies due to looming secondary sanctions reflects not only geopolitical pragmatism but also the hard lessons of energy security learned over decades. At a time when Western powers are tightening the screws on Moscow, India’s Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has projected a calm assurance that the country can weather disruptions – an assertion that deserves closer inspection. To begin with, India’s heavy reliance on Russian crude, which currently accounts for about 35 per cent of its oil imports, is a relatively recent development catalyzed by post-Ukraine war discounts and flexible payment terms. It is not built on deep strategic alignment but rather short-term economic advantage. That distinction matters when evaluating India’s ability and willingness to pivot away from Moscow if the cost of association becomes too high. Mr. Puri’s statement that India now sources oil from around 40 countries – up from 27 ~ indicates a proactive diversification strategy already in motion. Emerging suppliers like Guyana, and consistent players such as Brazil and Canada, expand India’s import cushion. The plan to intensify domestic exploration and production further enhances its capacity to offset disruptions, though in the short term this remains a modest component of total supply. India’s private refiners have also proven nimble in optimising their sourcing strategies to global price signals, making the import ecosystem more adaptive than a centrally regulated system. India’s diplomatic posture – emphasising “prevailing global circumstances” and warning against “double standards” ~ is a subtle reminder to the West that energy needs in the Global South cannot be viewed through the same normative lens as transatlantic sanctions regimes. India’s refusal to be boxed into one camp or the other is not an act of defiance but a strategic assertion of autonomy. India’s energy calculus also considers long-term consumption trends. With demand projected to rise steadily for the next two decades, building flexible, multi-origin supply chains is not just a crisis response ~ it’s a structural necessity. This balancing act is not without precedent. During the Cold War, India skillfully maneuvered between superpowers to secure economic and defence interests. Today, with energy being the lifeline of its $3.7 trillion economy and aspirations for high growth, the stakes are even higher. It is also significant that the fallback plan, as articulated by Indian Oil Corporation’s chairman, is a return to pre-Ukraine supply patterns ~ when Russian oil constituted less than 2 per cent of imports.
Trump tariffs push Asia toward American LNG at the cost of climate goals
Asian countries are offering to buy more US liquefied natural gas in negotiations with the Trump administration as a way to alleviate tensions over U.S. trade deficits and forestall higher tariffs. Analysts warn that strategy could undermine those countries’ long-term climate ambitions and energy security. Buying more US LNG has topped the list of concessions Asian countries have offered in talks with Washington over President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on foreign goods. Vietnam’s Prime Minister underlined the need to buy more of the super-chilled fuel in a government meeting, and the government signed a deal in May with an American company to develop a gas import hub. JERA, Japan’s largest power generator, signed new 20-year contracts last month to purchase up to 5.5 million metric tons of U.S. gas annually starting around 2030. US efforts to sell more LNG to Asia predate the Trump administration, but they’ve gained momentum with his intense push to win trade deals. Liquefied natural gas, or LNG, is natural gas cooled to a liquid form for easy storage and transport that is used as a fuel for transport, residential cooking and heating and industrial processes. Trump discussed cooperation on a $44 billion Alaska LNG project with South Korea, prompting a visit by officials to the site in June. The US president has promoted the project as a way to supply gas from Alaska’s vast North Slope to a liquefication plant at Nikiski in south-central Alaska, with an eye largely on exports to Asian countries while bypassing the Panama Canal Thailand has offered to commit to a long-term deal for American fuel and shown interest in the same Alaska project to build a nearly 810-mile (1,300-kilometer) pipeline that would funnel gas from The Philippines is also considering importing gas from Alaska while India is mulling a plan to scrap import taxes on US energy shipments to help narrow its trade surplus with Washington. “Trump has put pressure on a seeming plethora of Asian trading partners to buy more U.S. LNG,” said Tim Daiss, at the APAC Energy Consultancy, pointing out that Japan had agreed to buy more despite being so “awash in the fuel” that it was being forced to cancel projects and contracts to offload the excess to Asia’s growing economies. “Not good for Southeast Asia’s sustainability goals,” he said.
Russia Sanctions: EU Restrictions On Russian Oil Could Hit India’s $15 Billion Fuel Exports; ‘Will Have To Walk A Fine Line…
Russian oil sanctions by the European Union could dent India’s $15 billion fuel exports, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has warned. The EU’s 27 member states have introduced their 18th sanctions package against Russia, primarily targeting the oil and energy sector revenues. From an Indian standpoint, the biggest takeaway is that these new sanctions also apply to imports of petroleum products refined from Russian crude oil in any third nation. India imports crude oil from Russia in a big way and then exports it globally. “Although India continues to engage in legitimate trade with Russia, the political optics of such transactions are shifting in Western capitals. As energy ties deepen, India will have to walk a fine line between economic pragmatism and geopolitical pressure,” Srivastava said. Nayara Energy and Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) are expected to encounter challenges due to the European Union’s latest sanctions against Russian oil. The EU has lowered the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $47.6 per barrel and introduced restrictions on vessels transporting Russian oil. These measures will become effective September 3.