Trump is pushing India to buy more American gas – could Russia’s be the better choice?
As New Delhi seeks to diversify its LNG supply, both Moscow and Washington are courting the country to secure major deals. One of the outcomes of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Washington this week is an expansion of energy cooperation with the US under the India-US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership. In a joint statement, Modi and President Donald Trump reaffirmed their resolve to strengthen bilateral energy trade, positioning the US as a key supplier of crude oil, petroleum products, and LNG to India. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi unveiled his vision for a gas-based economy in 2016, it wasn’t just an economic shift but strategic maneuver aimed at reducing pollution, diversifying energy sources, and securing long-term energy stability while preserving strategic autonomy. As 2025 unfolds, India stands at a critical juncture as the global energy landscape is becoming increasingly complex. The United States is ramping up its natural gas exports, potentially adopting a more aggressive energy policy following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Meanwhile, Russia, a long-standing oil supplier to India, continues to face US-led sanctions, complicating the energy trade. India aims to increase natural gas’s share in its energy mix from the current 6.2% to 15% by 2030. This ambitious target is driven by the need to reduce carbon emissions and diversify its primary energy sources. The International Energy Agency forecasts that India’s natural gas consumption will rise by nearly 60%, reaching 103 billion cubic meters annually by 2030. With LNG imports currently meeting around 50% of its gas demand, India faces a significant vulnerability in its energy security. By 2030, India’s LNG imports are projected to double to approximately 65 bcm annually, making it the fourth-largest LNG importer globally. This heavy reliance exposes the country to price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical risks. LNG competition The renewed engagement between Washington and New Delhi could open avenues for India securing long-term LNG contracts, deepening technology collaborations, and attracting investments in oil and gas infrastructure. The evolving US-India energy equation not only enhances India’s energy security but also aligns with New Delhi’s ambition to transition toward a gas-based economy, balancing economic competitiveness with strategic autonomy.
India launches biggest oil and gas bidding round under OALP at Energy Summit
Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri on Tuesday, February 11, launched the 10th round of bidding for oil and gas assets under the Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP) at the India Energy Summit 2025. This round marks the largest bidding exercise in terms of acreage offered under the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy (HELP) regime. A total of 25 blocks, spanning approximately 1,91,986.21 square kilometres across 13 sedimentary basins, have been opened for bidding. Notably, 16 of these blocks, covering 97,919.6 square kilometres—about 51% of the total area—were previously designated as ‘No-Go’ zones, areas where exploration was restricted in the past. The bid round primarily focuses on offshore assets, with 19 of the 25 blocks located offshore, covering 1,75,115 square kilometres. Of these, 13 are situated in deep-water and ultra-deep-water regions, accounting for 1,33,724 square kilometres. The remaining blocks include six on land, six in shallow water, one in deep water, and 12 in ultra-deep water. Based on geological potential, the blocks are categorised into Category-I (9 blocks), Category-II (11 blocks), and Category-III (5 blocks).
India To Launch Oil And Gas Licensing Rounds
India is set to launch new rounds for oil and gas block licensing this week, Oil Minister Hardeep S. Puri announced on Monday. Puri also indicated that energy supply issues are expected to be a key topic during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming meeting with US President Trump later this week. Given India’s increasing demand for crude oil and natural gas, discussions may focus on securing long-term energy partnerships and exploring new avenues for collaboration between the two nations. “I will be surprised if sourcing of energy will not figure during the discussion,” Puri said. The United States has emerged as a major supplier of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to India in recent years, and any agreements or commitments made during the talks could have wider implications for global energy markets.
India importing crude from 40 countries; Argentina is new supplier: Hardeep Puri
Petroleum minister Hardeep Puri on Monday said that India is open to importing crude oil from all possible sources to meets its demand. Addressing a press conference a day ahead of the India Energy Week 2025, the Union minister recalled how India diversified its crude imports from 27 countries to 40 countries. Argentina is the new addition, he told reporters. “From 27 suppliers, we have now 40 suppliers. We added another Argentina the other day. So we’ve got imports from 40 countries,” he said. The imports from those suppliers though vary based on price advantage or in some instance because of proximity advantage. US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq are among the big suppliers of crude to India. “It’s a very dynamic situation, but we are open to imports from all sources,” he added. India depends on imports for over 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement. Various steps have been taken by the government to increase the production of domestic crude oil and bring down imports. The government is promoting usage of natural gas as fuel/feedstock across the country towards increasing the share of natural gas in economy and moving towards gas based economy, promotion of renewable and alternate fuels like ethanol, second generation ethanol, compressed bio gas and biodiesel.
Oil Prices Remain Under Pressure From Trade War Fears
Crude oil prices were set to end the week with a third consecutive decline as worry about the effect of Trump’s tariffs and China’s retaliation to them dragged benchmarks down. At the time of writing, oil was slightly up from Thursday, with Brent crude at $74.69 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $70.92 per barrel, but both were lower than they were on Monday, by over 2%. The slide in prices followed the introduction of a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports into the United States, which prompted China to respond in kind, slapping a 10% import duty on U.S. crude and a 15% tariff on liquefied natural gas. A Thursday announcement by the Department of Treasury that it would sanction several people and vessels carrying Iranian crude oil abroad somewhat limited the downward pressure on oil prices but the impact of the move is yet to manifest in full. “Oil prices saw some stability return this morning following a volatile session overnight, as traders react to news of U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude exports to China,” IG analyst Yeap Jun Rong told Reuters. “Nevertheless, (today’s) oil gains are limited, reflecting persistent concerns over supply and demand headwinds, including the potential for increased production from OPEC+ and the US, as well as tariff risks weighing on global oil demand,” he added. ING commodity analysts, meanwhile, revised their general expectations about oil prices in 2025 this week, noting that “The supply risks facing the market due to sanctions mean that the floor for oil prices is probably a little higher than we had expected coming into this year. However, much will depend on how trade relations progress. A tougher stance from the US on trade will be a concern for global growth.” BMI analysts pointed out the prospect of a full-blown trade war as a source of price pressure on oil as such a development could weaken demand for the commodity.
ADNOC and India: strengthening energy ties for a sustainable future
As we gather for the Third Edition of India Energy Week in New Delhi, we stand at the crossroads of a new era of human progress and global prosperity that will be shaped by three megatrends: the rise of emerging economies, the transformation of global energy systems and the rapid growth of AI. Among the drivers of these megatrends is the world’s population which is expected to increase to 9.7 billion by 2050 from the current 8 billion, a rise that will increase demand for energy. Meeting this demand will require a diversity of energy options and the transformation of current energy systems. With its broad portfolio across the energy spectrum – spanning renewables, nuclear, hydrogen and hydrocarbons – the UAE has been at the forefront of this energy transformation. At ADNOC, we are embracing these megatrends to future-proof our business, drive decarbonisation and deliver long-term sustainable value and growth. In collaboration with long-standing partners, such as India, we are expanding access to energy to meet rising demand, empower lives and enable a more secure and sustainable energy future. Underscoring the deep-rooted, longstanding strategic and historic relationship between the UAE and India is the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), under which bilateral trade has flourished across multiple sectors, including energy. As a testament to this relationship, ADNOC has established several strategic partnerships with Indian companies across the energy value chain including with Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), ONGC Videsh, GAIL and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited. We have also welcomed Indian companies as partners in Abu Dhabi’s oil and gas concessions, providing a path to securing long-term energy supplies for India. Today, India is ADNOC’s second largest market for crude oil. Our partnership with India is not just about supply—it is about co-creating long-term energy solutions. In a world where a billion people still lack access to energy, we need all energy solutions to meet demand and we need everyone who can provide solutions to work closely together. This is the thinking behind XRG, ADNOC’s $80+ billion international energy investment company. With an initial focus on international gas, global chemicals, and low carbon energies, XRG is set to lead transformative investments in global energy systems and solutions to meet the increase in energy demand. AI is also proving to be an important tool in accelerating the journey to transform energy systems. To this end, ADNOC has integrated AI across our value chain to enhance efficiencies and unlock greater value from our assets and resources. For example, together with AIQ, we recently completed the trial phase of ENERGYai, the world’s first-of-its-kind agentic AI solution tailored for the energy sector. The solution, which uses AI agents and combines large language model technology with proprietary data, successfully demonstrated significant improvements to seismic interpretation, reservoir performance and monitoring. As one of the fastest growing world economic powers and largest energy consumers, India plays a crucial role in the global energy transformation. On our part, ADNOC continues to engage with our Indian partners to explore new ways to enhance energy security, expand access to cleaner energy, and drive innovation in emerging technologies. We see significant potential to strengthen collaboration in line with India’s ambitions for economic growth and energy security.
Trump’s tariffs and Russian oil woes deepen crisis for Indian OMCs
India’s state-owned oil-marketing companies (OMCs) are staring down an abyss in 2025 on the heels of a disappointing annual budget for oil and gas for 2025-26 and from the volatility in oil and gas markets caused by the Trump administration’s disruptive energy tariff policies. These developments come amid discounted Russian oil flows, a mainstay of gross refining margins for Indian refiners, slowing to a trickle in the face of the latest US sanctions and expensive alternative supplies. US President Donald Trump initially threatened tariffs as high as 60 per cent on China and 25 per cent on Mexico and Canada, subsequently reducing rates to 10 per cent for Chinese imports and for energy imports from Canada and Mexico. The changes were effective from Tuesday but have been delayed by at least a month for its North American trading partners.
Aramco raises prices as demand from Asia grows
Saudi Aramco, the world’s leading oil exporter, has sharply increased crude prices for March shipments to buyers in Asia. Demand from China and India is rising as US sanctions disrupt Russian supply. Aramco raised the official selling price for flagship Arab Light crude by $2.40 to $3.90 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai benchmark average, Saudi Aramco said in a statement on Wednesday. The oil exporter steeply increased crude prices for March shipments across all other regions as well. Aramco raised March prices for buyers in northwest Europe and the Mediterranean by $3.20 a barrel for all crude grades, and raised the OSPs for grades it sells to the United States by 10-30 cents a barrel. The hike in Arab Light price for Asia was broadly in line with expectations with the $2-$2.50 increase forecast in a Reuters survey of three of four Asian refining sources. On January 10, the administration of former US president Joe Biden imposed fresh sanctionson Russian producers, tankers and insurers, further tightening global oil supply from the world’s second-largest producer and limiting vessel availability. In response, Chinese and Indian refiners scrambled to secure alternative cargoes, driving spot premiums for Oman and Dubai crude to their highest levels since November 2022. Opec+, which accounts for nearly half of global oil production, decided in early December to delay the start of planned output increases by three months, pushing them to April. The group also extended the full unwinding of its production cuts by a year, now set to conclude at the end of 2026.
China’s Energy Tariffs Shake Up Global Oil and LNG
China’s retaliatory tariffs on imports of U.S. crude oil, LNG, and coal will have a limited effect on Chinese purchases as Beijing’s oil and gas imports from the United States were modest, at best, even before the renewed trade war. However, the Chinese tariffs on U.S. energy, expected to take effect on February 10, have the potential to disrupt global commodity trade flows with impacts on other regional markets and on energy prices, analysts say. On the day on which the U.S. blanket tariff of 10% on all Chinese imports took effect, China responded with several measured retaliatory tariffs, including a 15% levy on LNG and 10% on crude oil imports from the United States. Considering the small volumes of U.S. oil and LNG ending up in China in recent months, the tariffs will not hurt either the U.S. or China too much in the near term, according to analysts. But the reluctance of Chinese importers to buy the more expensive American crude with the tariff is set to tighten the lighter sweeter crude markets as Beijing will seek alternatives to the U.S. crude and source more barrels from West Africa, for example. With the tariffs, China effectively killed U.S.-Chinese energy trade in the near term, Reuters columnist Clyde Russell notes. The impact on China is likely to be limited, as U.S. crude has most recently accounted for less than 2% of Chinese imports, while U.S. LNG has represented no more than 12% of all LNG imports into China in recent months, according to Kpler data quoted by Russell. In 2024, U.S. crude accounted for 1.7% of total Chinese crude imports, per Chinese customs data. That’s down from a 2.5% share in 2023. China could replace the U.S. volumes without much effort. But the recent crackdown on Russian oil trade and the expected “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran from President Trump could mean that China will have to tap more crude from the Middle East and West Africa, tightening the availability of these grades and driving up prices and shipping costs. The changes in the global LNG trade flows are expected to be bigger. China has long-term agreements with U.S. LNG exporters for deliveries beginning next year or in 2027. So far it has purchased a lot of American cargoes on the spot market. With a 15% tariff, the economics of buying spot LNG volumes just isn’t there—unless Chinese buyers take advantage of the flexible destination clause for U.S. LNG deals. Unlike Qatar, for example, U.S. LNG exporters allow reselling of cargoes as they are not bound by destination. Chinese LNG buyers are already sounding out other buyers in Asia and Europe about swapping U.S. cargoes for supply from elsewhere, anonymous traders told Bloomberg this week. However, in the medium and long term, if trade disputes continue and escalate, Chinese importers are unlikely to commit to long-term supply from new U.S. LNG export facilities, analysts say. This would be bad news for U.S. LNG developers who rely on capacity booked under long-term agreements before making final investment decisions on new export projects. “These tariffs on U.S. LNG directly undermine the Trump administration’s efforts to expand American energy exports and strengthen our geopolitical influence,” Charlie Riedl, Executive Director of the Center for LNG, a trade group representing many U.S. LNG exporters and developers, told Reuters. All of the above expectations could be swept aside if the trade war escalates and Trump pursues tariffs on Mexico and Canada, after the one-month pause, or on the European Union, which appears to be next on his list to address the U.S. trade deficit with tariffs. An escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest economies, could slow global growth and weigh on demand for commodities, including in the world’s biggest crude oil and LNG importer, China.
India’s natural gas production to peak in 2025, decline thereafter: Wood Mackenzie
India’s natural gas production is expected to peak in the current calendar year, after which it is likely to decline at a rate of 3.6 per cent annually until 2030, Wood Mackenzie said in a report. Besides, falling production amidst rising demand for the commodity—considered the best transition fuel—is expected to push up imports. India is likely to become the world’s third largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), after China and Japan, by 2032, with inbound cargoes accounting for 75 per cent of its gas consumption. “We expect Indian domestic gas production to increase by 4.5 per cent and peak in 2025, then decline by an average 3.6 per cent annually over the next five years, due to structural declines in mature fields and delays in development of new projects,” the consultancy said. Falling production After 2030, production is expected to see a 9 per cent annual decline through 2040, driven by the exhaustion of mature fields and slower-than-expected discoveries, Wood Mackenzie said. “The narrative could change, however, if the Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Amendment Bill introduced in August 2024 is implemented effectively,” it added. Read: Natural gas: Key support ahead The bill aims to increase investment in oil and gas exploration and production. Key ultra-deepwater discoveries, such as UD-1 in the eastern offshore basin, could transform India’s gas landscape in the future, contingent on favourable policies, faster project execution and advanced exploration techniques. Exploration and production blocks‒OALP-VIII and OALP-IX‒were tendered in recent licensing rounds, but the participation of private players and international oil companies was muted, it pointed out. Rising imports India’s LNG imports totalled 26 million tonnes per annum (mpta) in 2024, accounting for more than half of the country’s gas consumption. “We expect LNG demand to continue to grow in the coming years, exceeding 37 mtpa by 2030 and 88 mtpa by 2050, as India’s demand for gas rises while its domestic production shrinks. By 2032 already, LNG should account for around two-thirds of India’s gas consumption and will become the third largest importer of LNG after China and Japan,” Wood Mac said. LNG consumption saw a whopping 11.5 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2022 to 2024, thanks to lower prices, a rise in industrial demand, subsidies for the Fertiliser sector and changes to pipeline tariff mechanism. Industrial gas demand, primarily from the fertiliser and refinery sectors, alone posted a 9 per cent CAGR in 2022-24. Greater gas availability for new industrial units and the potential expansion of refineries and petrochemical plants will boost Indian industrial gas demand to around 63 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2040, it projected.