Oil Prices Down Nearly 2% on Demand, Iran, Tariffs
Oil prices were trading down 2% intraday, driven by ongoing demand fears combined with perceived progress on Iran nuclear talks and tariff whiplash, which continues to unsettle markets. On Monday, April 28, at 2:57 p.m. ET, Brent crude was paring its 2% daily losses slightly, trading down 1.60% at $65.80, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading down 1.59% at $62.02. Oil prices are responding most heavily to the impact of the trade war on demand. On Monday, Beijing lashed out at Washington’s negotiating tactics, with Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, saying: “They make up bargaining chips out of thin air, bully and go back on their words.” The Chinese official was responding to Trump’s statement earlier in the day that the U.S. would not lower tariffs on China unless Beijing offered up “something substantial”. Last week, Rystad Energy told clients that if we get into a situation where we have a real and sustained trade war, it could cut China’s oil demand growth in half, which would lead to a massive dive in oil prices, Forbes reported. With respect to Iran, an unnamed senior U.S. official reportedly told Reuters that “further progress” had been made during talks with Iran over the weekend, which Washington hopes will lead to assurances from Tehran that the country’s nuclear program will not be weaponized. Those assurances, in turn, could lead to an easing or reversal of sanctions, stoking fears that Iranian oil could flood the market. Last Friday, Trump said he thought the talks would be successful, but Israel is attempting to throw a spanner in the works, with Netanyahu demanding that no relief be given to Iran unless all of its nuclear infrastructure is removed, in entirety. Israel is not satisfied with an Iran that will not weaponize its nuclear capabilities; instead, it wants an Iran stripped of the ability to even develop ballistic missiles, Al Jazeera reported. Trump insisted on Friday that regardless of Israel’s warring actions, the U.S. was not getting “dragged in”.
Biogas sector gets ₹2 billion investment commitments
The biogas sector has received investment commitments of more than ₹2 billion at renewable energy exhibition RenewX 2025, industry body Indian Biogas Association (IBA) said on Sunday. The three-day expo was held at the Chennai Trade Centre, Nandambakkam from April 23 to 25. The event, organised by Informa Markets, saw investment commitments of ₹2 billion through various MoUs (memorandum of understandings) in the biogas industry, IBA sid in a statement. RenewX brought together stakeholders from across the bioenergy, solar, wind, energy storage, and management sectors, offering a platform for strategic collaborations and progressive discussions. With a focus on bioenergy innovations, sustainable partnerships, and policy dialogue, the bioenergy sector attracted strong interest from industry, professionals, investors, and policymakers, the statement said.
GreenLine launches LNG truck fleet for Bekaert’s logistics
GreenLine Mobility Solutions Ltd has launched a fleet of LNG-powered trucks for Bekaert to help decarbonise road logistics. This partnership aligns with India’s vision for a gas-based economy and is part of both companies’ commitments to reduce carbon emissions. The new LNG-powered trucks, deployed at Bekaert’s Ranjangaon Plant, are part of a pilot phase designed to significantly cut the carbon footprint of Bekaert’s logistics operations. Each truck is expected to cut up to 24 tonnes of CO₂ annually, bringing Bekaert closer to its goal of becoming carbon net-zero by 2050 and achieving 65 per cent sustainable sales. GreenLine’s LNG truck fleet has already driven over 40 million kilometres, avoiding more than 10,000 tonnes of CO₂ emissions. The company plans to expand its fleet to over 10,000 LNG and EV trucks and set up a nationwide network of LNG refuelling stations, EV hubs, and battery swapping facilities, aiming to cut 1 million tonnes of CO₂ annually.
Demand-supply imbalances, weakness in transportation fuel cracks impacted O2C segment: Mukesh Ambani
Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance posting a 2% YoY rise in profit saw its oil-to-chemicals segment results were impacted due to significant weakness in transportation fuel cracks, the company said. “Significant demand-supply imbalances in downstream chemicals markets have led to multi-year low margins,” said Mukesh Ambani. Oil-to-chemical business, which houses the company’s twin refineries at Jamnagar in Gujarat and petrochemical plants, saw EBITDA fall 10 per cent to Rs 15,080 crore in Q4 and 12 per cent in the full fiscal. It made good the fall in cracks or margins by placing more fuel in the domestic market. In the fuel retail business, Jio-bp – its joint venture with BP of the UK – saw diesel and petrol sales rise by 24.4 per cent and 25.4 per cent respectively in the quarter, the statement said. Lower gas output from KG-D6 fields led to an 8.6 per cent fall in the pre-tax profit of its oil and gas business to Rs 5,123 crore in Q4. “The average KGD6 production for the 4Q is 26.73 million standard cubic metres per day of gas and 19,000 barrels a day of oil,” it said. Commenting on the results, Reliance chairman and managing director Mukesh D Ambani said FY2025 has been a challenging year for the global business environment, with weak macro-economic conditions and a shifting geo-political landscape. “Our focus on operational discipline, customer-centric innovation and fulfilling India’s growth requirements has helped Reliance deliver a steady financial performance during the year,” he said. The O2C business posted a resilient performance despite considerable volatility in energy markets. Significant demand-supply imbalances in downstream chemicals markets have led to multi-year low margins. “Our business teams ensured optimization of integrated operations and feedstock costs to enhance margin capture across value chains,” he said. Reliance Industries Ltd on Friday reported a 2.4 per cent rise in its March quarter net profit, as its retail business rebounded and oil business defied global downtrend. Consolidated net profit of Rs 19,407 crore, or Rs 14.34 per share, in January-March – the fourth quarter of April 2024 to March 2025 fiscal (FY25) – was compared to Rs 18,951 crore, or Rs 14 a share, in the same period a year back, according to a stock exchange filing by the company. Profit was also up sequentially from Rs 18,540 crore in the October-December quarter. The company’s revenue from operations rose to Rs 2.6 lakh crore from Rs 2.4 lakh crore recorded in January-March 2024.
Three more Russian insurers seek India’s approval to provide cover for oil tankers, sources say
Three more Russian insurers, including a subsidiary of top lender Sberbank, have asked India for approval to provide marine insurance for oil shipments sent to Indian ports, two sources with knowledge of the matter said, as Moscow looks to maintain deliveries despite Western sanctions. India has already approved five insurers from Russia, which has no insurance firms in the International Group of P&I Clubs, which provides liability cover for personal injury or environmental clean-up claims for the majority of the world’s tankers. The move comes as growing scrutiny of Russia’s oil supply chain by Washington and the European Union, including compliance with a price cap set by G7 for the use of Western ships and insurance, makes it increasingly difficult for Moscow to export its oil. Russia is the top oil supplier to India for a third straight year in 2024-25 as New Delhi benefited on cheap supply after Western nations imposed sanctions on Moscow and curtailed their energy purchases in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India’s shipping ministry is evaluating the plea from Sberbank Insurance, Ugoria Insurance Group and ASTK Insurance Company to offer protection and indemnity (P&I) coverage for ships, the sources said.
India cuts LNG buying as other fuels become more attractive
Buyers including Gail India Ltd. and Indian Oil Corp. canceled LNG purchase tenders due to high prices, according to people with knowledge of the matter who didn’t wish to be named due to the sensitivity of the trade. India’s LNG imports this month are estimated to average 1.9 million tons, down 5% from the same month last year and the lowest monthly volume since December 2023, according to data analytics firm Kpler. Prices of LNG have been elevated due to a series of recent outages at export plants in Malaysia to Australia. That’s in spite of fears that the global trade war will cut gas demand. Any reduction in Indian purchases will help to free up supply for rival buyers in Asia and Europe. Spot prices have been trading between $11 to $12 per million British thermal units over the last few weeks, while naphtha rates in India are closer to $8 to $9 per million Btu thanks to a slump in crude. That’s pushing refiners, which account for 12% of India’s LNG consumption, to switch to naphtha, which is currently readily available due to shutdowns at petrochemical plants like Haldia Petrochemicals and Gail’s Uttar Pradesh facility, the people said. Industries such as ceramic tile-makers have also shifted to cheaper propane, while local, less expensive gas is available on the market due to a shutdown at Reliance Industries Ltd.’s Jamnagar refinery and maintenance at some fertilizer plants, they said. Still, India’s LNG demand could suddenly recover if hotter summer weather from next month prompts the government to mandate higher gas-fired power generation, the people added. Much of India’s gas power capacity is currently offline due to high LNG prices.
India Considers Allowing Foreign Investment in Nuclear Plants
As India looks to boost its nuclear power generation, the government is considering allowing foreign companies to own up to a 49% stake in Indian nuclear power plants, government sources told Reuters on Friday. Even if India passes amendments in its nuclear foreign investment laws to allow up to 49% foreign stakes, any foreign investment will likely still need prior government approval, according to Reuters’ sources. Currently, India has 8 gigawatts (GW) of operating nuclear capacity, operated by the state-owned Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL). In February, the federal budget outlined plans for a significant push toward nuclear energy as part of India’s long-term energy transition strategy. The government now targets the country to have 100 GW of nuclear power generation capacity installed by 2047, “positioning nuclear energy as a major pillar in India’s energy mix,” the cabinet said. India’s government could also accelerate the construction of nuclear power plants by attracting foreign firms if it changes the liability laws. India plans to remove an unlimited liability clause in its nuclear energy laws in a bid to attract foreign firms, especially U.S. companies, to its nuclear energy sector. The Indian Department of Atomic Energy has prepared a bill that would remove a clause in the Civil Nuclear Liability Damage Act of 2010 that exposes suppliers to unlimited liability if accidents occur, government sources told Reuters earlier this month. India’s largest power utility, NTPC, plans to invest over the next two decades $62 billion in building 30 GW of nuclear generation capacity, sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters earlier this year. NTPC is also reportedly looking to hire consultants for feasibility studies for small modular reactors that could potentially replace some of the utility’s old coal-fired power plants. NTPC has issued India’s first such exploratory tender for SMRs, which are considered to be the future of nuclear power.
U.S. Shale M&A Hits the Brakes as Oil Slides and Tariffs Bite
Mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. shale industry got off to a strong start this year. Oil was trading at pretty reasonable prices—unless you’re OPEC—there was a pro-oil president in the White House, and the outlook was bright. For a while. Then, prices took a dive, markets panicked about tariffs, and everyone started predicting economic catastrophe. The outlook is no longer so bright. The first quarter of 2025 saw shale oil and gas deals worth a total of $17 billion, Enverus reported this week. This made the quarter the second-best after the first quarter of 2018, the analytics firm said, noting, however, that about half of that total deal value came from two deals involving Diamondback Energy worth over $4 billion each. One of the deals was an acquisition of Permian-focused producer Double Eagle IV, which cost Diamondback some $4.08 billion, and the other was a dropdown of mineral and royalty rights to subsidiary Viper Energy, worth $4.26 billion. Outside Diamondback’s activity, however, deals began to get sparse as the M&A wave that rose in late 2023 began to ebb away with asking prices too high and the assets on offer of lower quality. “Upstream deal markets are heading into the most challenging conditions we have seen since the first half of 2020. High asset prices and limited opportunities are colliding with weakening crude,” Enverus’ principal analyst Andrew Dittmar said. “Potential sellers are acutely aware of the scarcity of high-quality shale inventory, creating a reluctance to unload their assets at a discount. Buyers, on the other hand, were already stretched by M&A valuations and can’t afford to continue to pay recent prices now that oil prices are lower. The standoff between those two groups around fair asset pricing is set to sink M&A activity.” In fairness, the deal wave could not continue forever, not after two robust years. In 2023, M&A activity in the U.S. oil and gas space surged by 57% from the previous year. The total value of deals that closed that year hit an all-time high of $155 billion, helped by a couple of megadeals of over $50 billion. The next year was robust, too, with close to $150 billion in deals. Last year, however, the focus of dealmakers began to shift from the Permian to other parts of the shale patch in what may have well been an early sign of the pending slowdown. It could be argued that this slowdown would have happened even without the price rout and the tariff war. The supply of high-quality, low-cost acreage was simply going to run out sooner or later—and with the level of activity in 2023 and 2024, that was bound to be sooner. Trends in oil prices and Trump trade policies simply sped up a process that was already underway. Indeed, Enverus noted in its M&A report that lower oil prices discourage dealmaking in the industry. The firm said that “Going back to the start of 2014, oil prices have fallen by more than 5% quarter-over-quarter 17 times. In 11 of the quarters with materially lower crude prices, deal activity fell compared to the prior three months with an average decline in transacted deal value of 30%.” In other words, what’s happening in the shale patch is completely normal, and there is even bonus good news: companies are better positioned to withstand the price rout, according to Enverus, thanks to their new priority of capital discipline and debt level control. “Companies have kept debt levels in check, been conservative about growing production and made judicious use of hedges,” the analytics provider said. It cautioned, however, that this will only spare sector players pain if the rout does not last too long. If the tariff war and the low oil prices extend into 2026, they will start causing pain. Somewhat ironically, such a hypothetical development would revive dealmaking as companies seek to consolidate to survive as they tend to do in times of trouble. “If oil prices struggle into 2026, public E&Ps are likely to start taking more drastic actions including cutting capital spending, selling assets or even considering mergers with another company,” Enverus’ Dittmar commented. The jury’s still out on how long the tariff war or the oil price depression will continue. For now, the situation with tariffs on China does not look particularly promising, as China said it would only engage in negotiations after the U.S. lifts the tariffs already imposed on its exports. The U.S. does not seem to be willing to do that for now, which has resulted in a sort of tariff stalemate. Meanwhile, oil prices remain rather depressed, although they have recouped some of the losses suffered earlier this month amid the sharp revisions in demand outlooks because of the tariffs. This week, the benchmarks are set for another loss after Reuters reported that OPEC+ may be considering another solid production ramp-up in June as it continues to look for a way to make quota laggards pay for overproducing. For now, the environment remains discouraging for a rebound in M&A activity.
Oil Prices Tick Higher Despite Tariff Talks Confusion
Crude oil prices started trading this week with a gain despite mixed signals from Washington regarding tariff negotiations with China. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $67.03 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $63.22 per barrel, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday he was not involved in any talks with Chinese officials. The statement followed claims by President Trump that there were ongoing tariff talks with the Chinese side and that he had spoken with China’s President Xi Jinping. Bessent said he had spoken with Chinese officials at the recent gathering of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank but not about tariffs. “I had interaction with my Chinese counterpart, but it was more on the traditional things like financial stability, global economic early warnings,” Bessent said. The Chinese side has denied that there were any talks underway. Even so, prices are trending higher. Part of the reason seems to be the absence of any significant news, at least according to one trading platform chief. “Absence of news is pushing oil prices modestly higher as traders are positioned short ahead of potential increased OPEC+ supply from the May 5 meeting and a significant production boost in the USA,” Moomoo Australia’s Michael McCarthy told Reuters. Meanwhile, the Trump administration appears not to be in a rush to close any trade deals with those eager for them. Reuters reported that no deals at all were signed during last week’s IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, which saw world leaders gather in one place to discuss trade. This suggests extended tariff uncertainty, which means extended oil price uncertainty. The physical market, however, is showing some bullish signs, according to ING, which last week noted that “signs of tightness in the prompt physical market should continue to support the oil market. This tightness can be seen in the strengthening of timespreads.”
India can save over ₹9170 billion on its oil import bill by shifting to electric mobility
A complete shift from older fossil fuel-propelled vehicles to electric vehicles in 44 cities with a population of at least 1 million could help India save $106.6 billion on its oil import bill, which translates to ₹9170 billion in Indian currency at the current exchange rate. With this move, India could avoid 11.5 tonnes of PM2.5 emissions every day by 2035 and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 61 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. The study by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) also claimed that this move would save more than 51 billion litres of petrol and diesel. The study stated that the number of older vehicles in these 44 cities across India could grow from 4.9 million in 2024 to 7.5 million by 2030. The transport sector in India accounts for up to 24 per cent and 37 per cent in the winter season, to the ambient PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations of different Indian cities, respectively, according to TERI. Older vehicles are a major contributor to the air pollution in India’s big cities. The study found that older diesel buses emit the most pollutants into the environment among all vehicle types. The study points out that age restrictions on buses alone could help reduce 50 per cent of PM2.5 and 80 per cent of nitrogen oxide emissions by 2030. TERI has proposed a staggered plan to phase out about 11.4 million vehicles between 2030 and 2035 and recommended either replacing all these with electric vehicles or adopting a combination of electric and CNG vehicles. The study pointed out that a complete shift to electric vehicles could avoid 11.5 tonnes of PM2.5 emissions every day by 2035 and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 61 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.