Russia Signals It Will Keep Sending Oil to Cuba Despite U.S. Pressure
Russia has been supplying crude oil to Cuba repeatedly over the past few years and supplies will continue, the Russian ambassador to Havana, Viktor Koronelli, told state news agency RIA today. The statement comes following the latest U.S. squeeze on Cuba, with President Trump threatening tariffs on countries that continue sending crude to the island nation, warning it had about two weeks’ worth of oil earlier this month. Trump is aiming for regime change in Cuba. Despite the threats, Mexico’s state oil company said this week it intended to uphold its contract with the government in Havanna and continue shipping oil there. That statement follows reports about Pemex canceling a planned oil cargo for Cuba at the end of January in response to Trump’s pressure campaign, with Reuters noting that the Mexican leadership was worried about getting punished by Washington if it kept shipping oil to Cuba. President Claudia Scheinbaum, however, said that Pemex’s decision to suspend that shipment was made on the grounds of price considerations and not under U.S. pressure. Mexico has been exporting oil to Cuba at a rate of between 17,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd as of 2024 and early 2025. The island’s biggest oil supplier, however, was Venezuela, until the U.S. removed President Nicolas Maduro and took over the country’s oil industry. Between January and September last year, Mexico shipped roughly 17,200 barrels per day of crude oil and 2,000 bpd of refined products to Cuba, according to Pemex filings. This may be modest by global standards, but it is what keeps Cuba’s power plants and transportation running. Commenting on the events in Venezuela with regard to Cuba, Russia’s Koronelli said that it may be too premature to talk about Cuba losing an ally, although he acknowledged that “relations in certain spheres had changed format.”
GAIL contests latest Petroleum & Natural Gas regulator’s tariff order
GAIL, the country’s largest gas transporter, has challenged the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board’s (PNGRB) latest tariff order, citing “apparent mistakes” by the regulator, its finance chief said. The PNGRB recently approved a tariff of ₹65.69 per mmBtu for GAIL’s integrated pipeline network, a 12% increase over last year’s ₹58.60 but well below the ₹78 per mmBtu sought by the company. GAIL has appealed the order, arguing that the regulator wrongly excluded future capital and operational expenditure while determining the tariff, Rakesh Jain, director (finance), told ET. While PNGRB accepted higher gas transmission volumes, it did not allow a proportionate increase in transmission losses, which weighed on the tariff, he said. Jain said the regulator erred in how it treated gains from pipeline capacity utilisation above 75%. Under the rules, such gains are to be shared equally between the operator and customers, but the PNGRB passed the entire benefit to customers, he said. “These, in our view, are apparent mistakes. So, we have filed an appeal with the PNGRB,” Jain said. A lower tariff approval could ultimately hurt consumers, he said. “It looks like a loss in the short term (for us), but we will get the money eventually. The customer will then have to pay much more.” GAIL is entitled to a 12% post-tax return on capital employed through tariffs, Jain said.
India Weighs Cheap Russian Oil Against Costly U.S. Trade Commitments
Russia’s flagship crude, Urals, is being offered in India at a widening discount to Brent, with the differential now at $11 per barrel and testing the appetite of Indian refiners amid the trade deal with the U.S. that calls for limited purchases of Russian oil. Sellers are offering Urals at an $11 per barrel discount this week, widened from about $9 a barrel ten days ago, anonymous traders involved in the offerings told Bloomberg on Wednesday. Typically, such steep discounts would have Indian refiners rushing to lock in purchases. However, the U.S.-India trade deal and lower tariffs for Indian products in the United States depend on India slashing imports of Russian crude oil. Refiners in India are reportedly waiting for government guidance on how to proceed, if at all, with Russian oil purchases. Following the trade deal announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, Indian refiners seek clarification about Russian oil imports from their government, with some pre-emptively halting purchases, sources with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg earlier this week. President Trump broke the news of a deal with India on Monday, saying the U.S. would reduce tariffs on Indian imports in exchange for a commitment on the part of New Delhi to stop buying crude oil from Russia and boost purchases of American oil instead, along with other goods and commodities. The deal would also grant Indian energy buyers access to Venezuelan crude and maybe even Iranian crude, as suggested by the U.S. President, providing alternatives to Russian crude. India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, dramatically raised its imports of cheap Russian crude following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. For nearly four years, India imported so much Russian crude that Russia became its single biggest oil supplier, accounting for about a third of all imported crude. But now refiners are temporarily halting Russian oil purchases and seeking clarification. Regardless of the cheap Russian crude currently on offer, India will have to take into account the U.S. deal and its implications.
Russia Shrugs Off India’s Oil Deal With Trump
Russia sees no danger for its oil exports from the trade deal that the U.S. president sealed with his Indian counterpart earlier this week. Per the deal, Washington will cut tariffs on Indian goods, and New Delhi will commit to expanding purchases of U.S. oil and gas. “We, along with all other international energy experts, are well aware that Russia is not the only supplier of oil and petroleum products to India. India has always purchased these products from other countries. Therefore, we see nothing new here,” Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, told the media, as quoted by The Hindu earlier today. “The American shale oil they export is light grades, similar to gas condensate. Russia, on the other hand, supplies relatively heavy, sulfur-rich Urals. This means India will need to blend U.S. crude with other grades, which incurs additional costs, meaning a simple substitution won’t be possible,” an energy expert from Russia’s National Energy Security Fund said. The news of the deal was taken by most observers to mean a further squeeze on Russian oil exports to India, although some analysts noted that India will be hard-pressed to reduce its intake of Russian crude, which accounts for about a third of total imports to date, up from a minuscule 2% before 2022. For nearly four years, India imported so much Russian crude that Russia became its single biggest oil supplier, accounting for about a third of all imported crude. However, Indian refiners have recently scaled down purchases of Russian crude following the U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. Indian refiners have halted imports from the now-sanctioned entities and turned to non-sanctioned Russian supply and alternative cargoes from the Middle East, the Americas, and, to a lesser extent, West Africa, depending on prices. The deal with Trump will open up access to Venezuelan and possibly even Iranian oil, analysts said, following the news, to reduce purchases from Russia.
IGX traded gas volume of 8.4 million mmbtu (212 mmscm), up by 50% MoM & 17% YoY
January’26, IGX achieved monthly trade gas volume of 8.4 million MMBtu (212 MMSCM), volume up by 50% MoM & 17% YoY basis, the rise in volume was primarily due to CGD demand & domestic HPHT gas trade volume. Around 16% of the traded volume was free-market gas, while 84% was domestic HPHT gas at the ceiling price (₹878 or $9.72/MMBtu). Nearly 8 MMSCM of domestic gas with pricing freedom was traded by producers at Bokaro (CBM), Jaya, KG Basin, and Hazira-ONGC delivery points. Indian Gas Exchange’s benchmark price index, GIXI®, for January 2026 was ₹962/$10.6 per MMBtu—down by 3% MoM & 21% YoY. Prices trended on a downward YoY basis, due to increased local supply. International prices trended upward MoM basis due to extended winters and geopolitical reason, with European and Asian spot gas benchmarks monthly average as follows: TTF at $13/MMBtu (up by 32% MoM, down by 19% YoY), WIM-Ex Dahej at $11.4/MMBtu (up by 8% MoM & down by 25% YoY), while US Henry Hub averaged at $4.1/MMBtu (down by 7% MoM, up by 10% YoY).
LPG support remains central to ministry spending
The Petroleum Ministry budget remains overwhelmingly subsidy-driven. A one-time grant of Rs 175 billion has been provided in 2026–27 to public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs) to compensate for under-recoveries on domestic LPG sales, following a Rs 125 billion provision in the revised estimates for 2025–26. In addition, total LPG subsidy outgo, including direct benefit transfer and connections to poor households, stands at Rs 110.845 billion in 2026–27. An extra Rs 10 billion is to be met from the Oil Industry Development Fund to finance LPG connections for poor households. Biofuels get a sharper push from a low base Biofuels emerge as one of the few areas seeing a meaningful increase in budgetary support. Allocations for the Pradhan Mantri JI-VAN Yojana, which supports advanced bioethanol projects, have been raised to Rs 1969 million in 2026–27 from Rs 379 million in the previous year’s revised estimates. Support for biomass collection has also been increased to Rs 1 billion from Rs 100 million, pointing to a renewed focus on feedstock availability for bioenergy programmes, albeit from a relatively small base.
Trump’s India pact to make big dent in Russian oil revenue
Russia faces a steep drop in oil income if U.S. President Donald Trump successfully pressures India to stop importing Russian crude, because losing its top purchaser of seaborne exports would force Moscow to slash prices to find other buyers, analysts and traders said. Trump on Monday cut U.S. tariffs on Indian goods in a trade deal he said also included provisions for India to halt oil imports from Russia, the world’s second-biggest oil exporter. The United States is putting pressure on Russia to agree a peace deal in Ukraine. Trump has over the past year already claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil. India never halted imports, however, citing its need for energy security and for cheap oil. The Kremlin says energy cooperation with India, its second largest oil buyer after China, is strong after Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the country in December 2025. But Indian refiners are taking a cautious approach to Russian oil purchases, which is already hurting Moscow’s income. Russian oil imports dropped 22% to 1.38 million barrels per day in December from November, their lowest since January 2023, reducing Russia’s share in Indian imports to 27.4% while OPEC’s share rose to 53.2%, according to Reuters’ calculations. That follows a peak in India’s Russian oil imports at around 2 million barrels per day in June 2025. “Any further reduction would already be meaningful, because there is only one relevant alternative buyer – China – which has also its limitations in taking in sanctioned crude,” said David Wech from Vortexa consultancy. The pressure on Russia is increasing as oil discounts widen and fewer buyers are willing to take the risk, Wech said. Prices for Russian oil have sunk to record lows, while Russia’s budget shows a deficit due to a shortfall in energy revenues, according to a government official.
The Russian niggle in the India-US trade deal amid the celebrations
India-US trade deal has been widely welcomed by markets and exporters, but one unresolved issue could yet test the durability of the deal, according to CreditSights, a Fitch company. India’s commitment to halt Russian oil purchases in return for sharply lower US tariffs carries economic and political risks that may surface once the initial euphoria fades. The India-US trade deal, announced by US President Donald Trump on Monday, will see Washington cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50%. In exchange, India has agreed to put zero tariff on US goods, lower trade barriers, halt purchases of Russian oil, and step up imports of oil and other goods from the US, and potentially Venezuela. India has confirmed the tariff reduction but has not commented publicly on the Russian oil aspect. However, Russia said it hasn’t received any communication from New Delhi indicating that India plans to stop buying Russian oil. Trump said India had committed to buying more than $500 billion worth of US energy, technology, agricultural and other products. A government official told Reuters on Tuesday that India has agreed to increase purchases of petroleum, defence goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals, telecom equipment and aircraft from the US. “Ceasing all Russian oil purchases and stepping up US/Venezuelan oil purchases will likely increase India’s oil import bill, given higher freight costs and sanctions on Russia (Russian oil typically trades $6-$10 per barrel lower than Brent); this could affect inflation and government oil subsidies, though we note that inflation remains well contained within the RBI’s 2%-6% tolerance band,” the Fitch company said.
US Crude Oil Inventories Take Big Hits In Storm Aftermath
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 11.1 million barrels in the week ending January 30. Crude oil inventories decreased by 247,000 barrels in the week prior. Inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) keep climbing week after week. The Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the SPR rose by 200,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels in the week ending January 30. This is 310.3 million barrels shy of maximum capacity. US production fell for the fourth week in a row during the week of January 23 to 13.696 million bpd, down from 13.732 million bpd in the week prior, according to the latest EIA data. This is 456,000 bpd more than this same time last year. At 3:54 pm ET, Brent crude was trading up on the day at $68.10 (+2.71%). Brent is now roughly $0.70 per barrel up from this time last week as tensions in the Middle East persist. WTI was also trading up on the day, by $1.89 (+3.04%) at $64.03. Gasoline inventories rose this week, gaining 4.7 million barrels in the week ending January 30. In the week prior, gasoline inventories fell by 415,000 barrels. As of last week, gasoline inventories were 5% above the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data. Distillate inventories fell in the reporting period by 4.8 million barrels, after gaining 2 million barrels in the week prior. Distillate inventories were 1% above the five-year average as of the week ending January 23, the latest EIA data shows. Cushing inventory—the inventory kept at the delivery hub for the WTI Crude futures contract—fell by 1.4 million barrels, after decreasing by 92,000 barrels in the prior week.
India to ramp up purchases of US oil, arms, aircraft; open some farm access
India has committed to purchasing petroleum, defence goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals, telecom products, and aircraft from the United States under a newly announced trade agreement, stated a report in Reuters, citing sources. The deal, following bilateral negotiations, is intended to address the US trade deficit with India and is expected to influence multiple sectors over the coming years, the report added. The official also noted that India has offered market access in some agricultural products, the report said, though details were not disclosed. US President Donald Trump confirmed the agreement, stating India agreed to “BUY AMERICAN at a much higher level” and could purchase up to $500 billion worth of US energy, coal, technology, agricultural, and other products. India has reduced tariffs on automobiles as part of the deal, responding to a key US request aimed at balancing bilateral trade. The Indian government official said these measures are part of broader efforts to address ongoing trade imbalances. Commerce ministry data showed India’s exports to the US rose 15.88 per cent year-on-year to $85.5 billion between January and November, while imports stood at $46.08 billion.