US Crude Oil Inventories Take Big Hits In Storm Aftermath
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 11.1 million barrels in the week ending January 30. Crude oil inventories decreased by 247,000 barrels in the week prior. Inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) keep climbing week after week. The Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the SPR rose by 200,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels in the week ending January 30. This is 310.3 million barrels shy of maximum capacity. US production fell for the fourth week in a row during the week of January 23 to 13.696 million bpd, down from 13.732 million bpd in the week prior, according to the latest EIA data. This is 456,000 bpd more than this same time last year. At 3:54 pm ET, Brent crude was trading up on the day at $68.10 (+2.71%). Brent is now roughly $0.70 per barrel up from this time last week as tensions in the Middle East persist. WTI was also trading up on the day, by $1.89 (+3.04%) at $64.03. Gasoline inventories rose this week, gaining 4.7 million barrels in the week ending January 30. In the week prior, gasoline inventories fell by 415,000 barrels. As of last week, gasoline inventories were 5% above the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data. Distillate inventories fell in the reporting period by 4.8 million barrels, after gaining 2 million barrels in the week prior. Distillate inventories were 1% above the five-year average as of the week ending January 23, the latest EIA data shows. Cushing inventory—the inventory kept at the delivery hub for the WTI Crude futures contract—fell by 1.4 million barrels, after decreasing by 92,000 barrels in the prior week.
India to ramp up purchases of US oil, arms, aircraft; open some farm access
India has committed to purchasing petroleum, defence goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals, telecom products, and aircraft from the United States under a newly announced trade agreement, stated a report in Reuters, citing sources. The deal, following bilateral negotiations, is intended to address the US trade deficit with India and is expected to influence multiple sectors over the coming years, the report added. The official also noted that India has offered market access in some agricultural products, the report said, though details were not disclosed. US President Donald Trump confirmed the agreement, stating India agreed to “BUY AMERICAN at a much higher level” and could purchase up to $500 billion worth of US energy, coal, technology, agricultural, and other products. India has reduced tariffs on automobiles as part of the deal, responding to a key US request aimed at balancing bilateral trade. The Indian government official said these measures are part of broader efforts to address ongoing trade imbalances. Commerce ministry data showed India’s exports to the US rose 15.88 per cent year-on-year to $85.5 billion between January and November, while imports stood at $46.08 billion.
India’s crude import cost slips below $60 a barrel
India’s average crude oil import cost fell below $60 a barrel on Monday, among the lowest it has been in five years despite global geopolitical upheavals and sanctions against three major crude oil suppliers—Iran, Russia and Venezuela. The daily average price of various crude grades (popularly known as Indian basket) dipped to $59.29 a barrel on January 5. The last time, the daily average price of Indian basket stood below $60 was on February 5, 2021 (at $59.34). The Indian basket of crude oil represents a cocktail of sour grade and sweet grade of crude oil processed in Indian refineries. The research report prepared by the State Bank of India (SBI) said on Monday that crude oil prices would “soften significantly in 2026” to touch $50 per barrel by June 2026. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast a fall in oil prices to $55 a barrel in 2026. “We forecast the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and remain near that price for the rest of next year,” EIA’s short-term energy outlook said in its report published on December 9, 2025. Falling oil prices are good for India, which imports more than 88% crude oil it processes.
Indian refiners need wind-down period for Russian oil halt, sources say
Indian refiners will need a wind-down period to complete Russian oil deals before imports .from that country can be halted, and they have so far not been ordered by the government. Indian companies have already booked cargoes loading in February and arriving in March , so a wind-down period would be needed to fulfil existing commitments, the sources say .
Qatar’s Al-Kaabi Warns AI Power Demand Could Spark LNG Shortage by 2030
Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi on Monday warned that rising power demand from artificial intelligence could wipe out the global LNG surplus and push markets into deficit by around 2030, despite more than 100 million tonnes per year of new LNG capacity scheduled to come online this decade, Reuters reported. Al-Kaabi said AI-driven data centers are emerging as a material source of gas demand as governments and technology companies accelerate investment in large-scale computing infrastructure. Unlike traditional industrial loads, data centers require continuous power, increasing reliance on gas-fired generation in regions where renewables cannot yet provide consistent baseload supply. His comments come as Qatar advances a major expansion of its North Field LNG project, which will raise national capacity from about 77 million tonnes per year to roughly 126 million tonnes by the early 2030s. The expansion was designed to meet steady demand growth from Asia and Europe, rather than a sharp rise in electricity consumption linked to AI. LNG markets have spent the past two years focused on oversupply risks, with new export projects in the United States, Qatar, and Africa expected to add more than 100 million tonnes per year of capacity by the end of the decade. That outlook has weighed on prices and made buyers cautious about locking in long-term contracts. Industry forecasts have still pointed to underlying growth. Shell has said global LNG demand is likely to rise by around 3% per year, driven by coal-to-gas switching in Asia and Europe’s efforts to replace Russian pipeline supplies. Al-Kaabi’s warning suggests AI-related power demand could add a new layer of consumption that was not fully reflected in earlier projections. Gas-fired generation remains one of the fastest options for meeting large, reliable power needs, particularly in countries competing to host data centers and AI infrastructure. If that build-out accelerates, LNG demand could rise in markets that had been expected to plateau later this decade. Al-Kaabi said the risk is not immediate but lies in the second half of the decade. If AI demand expands alongside delays to new LNG projects or geopolitical disruptions, spare capacity could narrow quickly, tightening the market sooner than anticipated.
Energy Minister says India wants crude LNG & petroleum from Canada
After returning from trade talks in India, Energy Minister Tim Hodgson confirmed the Indian government wants to buy Canadian crude and liquefied natural gas and “would love to be able to get it off our West Coast,” but offered no plans to expand infrastructure. “India has the largest refining industry in the world today, and they are actively taking Canadian crude off the Gulf Coast, because that’s where they can get it in meaningful amounts today,” Hodgson told reporters during a virtual press conference .
Shell Sees LNG Sector Growing by 3% Per Year
The global LNG market is expanding by 3% every year, growing at a faster pace than the overall natural gas market, Wael Sawan, chief executive officer of the world’s top LNG trader, Shell, said at an LNG conference in Doha, Qatar. Both supply and demand of LNG have surged in recent years, and a new supply wave is coming by the end of this decade. The supply surge is set to begin as soon as this year, analysts and forecasters say. New LNG export projects coming online and ramp-ups of recently commissioned facilities are expected to drive a 10% jump in global LNG supply this year, as the market shifts from tightness to abundance. The supply growth, mostly from the top two exporters, the United States and Qatar, is set to depress Asian spot LNG prices and Europe’s benchmark gas prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF). While lower prices would weigh on the profit margins of the U.S. exporters, they would incentivize additional demand, especially in Asia, where buyers have become more price sensitive to LNG imports, according to the analysts. The Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage 3 projects will continue ramping up to full operations, while Golden Pass LNG is expected to begin operations by mid-2026, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last month. Supply is set to grow beyond 2026, too, with the completion of Qatar’s mega expansion LNG projects by 2028. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global supply growth to accelerate in 2026 to more than 7%, its fastest pace since 2019. The supply wave is set to reduce price pressures and incentivize additional demand in price-sensitive consumers, especially in the fast-growing energy markets in Asia, according to the agency. This year’s jump in supply, mostly from North America, is expected to reduce market pressures at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the IEA said.
U.S.-India Trade Deal Puts Oil and Russian Crude at the Core
President Donald Trump said on Monday that the United States and India have reached an agreement on a trade framework that cuts U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and commits New Delhi to expand purchases of U.S. oil and gas, pushing energy supply to the center of talks that have unfolded largely in public. Trump’s comments outlined a deal that lowers U.S. tariffs on Indian imports to 18% and removes an additional duty tied to India’s Russian oil buying. In return, he said Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to sharply reduce purchases of Russian crude and shift toward U.S. supply, alongside broader commitments to buy American energy, technology, and agricultural products. Indian officials have not yet confirmed the details or timelines. The focus on oil reflects India’s role as one of the largest buyers of Russian crude since 2022, a trade that has reshaped tanker flows and underpinned refinery margins. Washington has increasingly treated that relationship as a political issue rather than a purely commercial one, using trade pressure to push New Delhi toward alternative sourcing. Trump also said India would be allowed to buy oil from Venezuela, presenting it as a substitute for Russian and Iranian barrels. The remark suggested potential flexibility on sanctions enforcement, though no formal policy change has been announced. Venezuela remains under U.S. sanctions, with oil exports governed by limited licenses, and it remains unclear whether any India-specific authorization has been granted or whether the comment reflected negotiating posture. The timing is notable. India’s crude imports are running near record levels, with January volumes set to be the highest on record as refiners respond to strong domestic demand and export fuel, according to Oilprice.com. Russian grades continue to dominate incremental supply because of price, while U.S. crude has struggled to compete without discounts or logistical incentives. Liquefied natural gas is also included in the trade framework. India remains short of natural gas and exposed to volatile spot LNG prices as it continues to seek lower-cost, long-term supply contracts. U.S. exporters see India’s growing power demand as a potential outlet, but pricing terms have yet to be agreed.
India’s Russian Oil Dilemma Threatens to Shake Global Markets
The immediate suspension of crude oil imports from Russia on the part of India would present a major disruption for global oil markets, Moody’s warned today, following the announcement of a trade deal between New Delhi and Washington. “Even though India has reduced its purchase of crude oil from Russia in recent months, it is unlikely to cease all purchases immediately which could be disruptive to India’s economic growth,” the ratings agency said in a note, as quoted by the Economic Times. President Donald Trump broke the news of a deal with India on Monday, saying the U.S. would reduce tariffs on Indian imports in exchange for a commitment on the part of New Delhi to stop buying crude oil from Russia and boost purchases of American oil instead, along with other goods and commodities. The deal would also grant Indian energy buyers access to Venezuelan crude and maybe even Iranian crude, as suggested by the U.S. president, providing alternatives to Russian crude, which turned the country into India’s single biggest supplier of the commodity over the past four years. Since U.S. sanctions on the two biggest Russian companies shipping crude abroad came into effect last November, however, Indian refiners have been reducing their intake and looking for alternatives. This month, India is on track to import record-high volumes of crude oil and condensate as refiners boost non-Russian purchases further to replace barrels lost to U.S. sanctions, energy flow tracking firm Vortexa said in a report last week. India’s crude and condensate imports will likely hit 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) this month—a new record, as deliveries of cargoes laden with non-Russian oil surged. The jump in non-Russian crude imports is set to more than offset the decline in India’s imports of Russian crude, according to Vortexa.
India Pours Over $10 Billion Into Rare Earths to Cut China Dependence
India’s Finance Ministry has unveiled a budget proposal for the current financial year that will boost domestic rare earths mining and the clean energy sector as part of a broader effort to break global supply chain monopolies–particularly China’s dominance–and achieve strategic self-reliance in critical minerals. In the Union Budget 2026-27 presented over the weekend, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiled a strategic initiative to establish dedicated rare earth corridors across four mineral-rich coastal states of Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. These corridors will act as integrated zones connecting mines, processing units, research labs, and factories to streamline the movement and production of rare earth elements (REEs). The initiative builds on the ?7,280 crore scheme ($800 million) approved in late 2025 to promote the manufacturing of Sintered Rare Earth Permanent Magnets (REPM). This scheme targets an annual production capacity of 6,000 metric tonnes. India plans to leverage its substantial reserves (estimated at 8.52 million tonnes) of REEs found in monazite-rich beach sands along its coasts. The budget will also extend tax incentives, including full exemptions, for critical mineral processing. REEs are essential for high-tech industries including electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, semiconductors, defense electronics and smartphones. In Kerala alone, the corridor is expected to attract ?42,000 crore ($4.6 billion) in investments and generate approximately 50,000 jobs. The REPM scheme spans seven years, including a two-year gestation period for setting up facilities and five years for sales-linked incentives. Up to five beneficiaries will be selected through a global competitive bidding process to ensure high-tech standards and competitiveness. “By identifying, exploring, and processing rare earth minerals domestically, India aims to reduce its dependence on external sources,” Civil Aviation Minister Ram Mohan Naidu said. Beyond minerals, the Indian government has announced a massive, multi-pronged push to develop the renewable energy sector, with total allocations and targeted investments exceeding ?87,000 crore ($9.6 billion) across different initiatives, including power generation and nuclear energy. The Ministry of New & Renewable Energy (MNRE) budgetary allocation was ?32,914.7 crore ($3.7 billion) representing a nearly 30% increase from the revised estimates of the previous year.PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana received an allocation of ?22,000 crore ($2.4 billion) to accelerate household residential solar adoption while PM-KUSUM (Agri-Solar) was raised to ?5,000 crore ($550 million). PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana is a flagship scheme launched by the Government of India on February 13, 2024, designed to provide up to 300 units of free electricity every month to 10 million households. The scheme encourages the installation of rooftop solar (RTS) systems in the residential sector. The project has a total financial outlay of Rs. 75,021 crore ($8.2 billion), and aims to reduce carbon emissions by 720 million tonnes over 25 years. Meanwhile, India’s PM-KUSUM (Pradhan Mantri Kisan Urja Suraksha evam Utthan Mahabhiyan) is a central government scheme launched in 2019 to promote solar energy in agriculture. It provides up to 60% subsidies for farmers to install solar pumps, solarize existing grid-connected pumps, and set up solar power plants on barren land, aims to enhance income, reduce diesel usage and ensure energy security. The budget has also proposed a new dedicated plan for Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage (CCUS), with ?20,000 crore ($2.2 billion) proposed over the next five years to support industrial decarbonization in sectors like power, steel and cement, supporting the country’s net-zero 2070 goal. Further, the Union Budget 2026-27 reinforces a major push for nuclear energy as a clean baseload power source, aiming for 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047. Key highlights include a ?24,124 crore ($2.7 billion) allocation for the Department of Atomic Energy; an allocation for R&D projects at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) was nearly doubled to ?1,800 crore ($198 million) as well as significant tax concessions to boost infrastructure. The budget supports the Nuclear Energy Mission, focused on the research and development (R&D) of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and “Bharat Small Reactors” (BSRs), with a target to operationalize at least five indigenously developed SMRs by 2033. The existing basic customs duty (BCD) exemption on imports of goods required for nuclear power projects has been extended until 2035. This exemption was expanded to cover all nuclear power plants, regardless of their capacity, to encourage faster development. As part of the strategy, the government is also exploring the use of retired coal plant sites for new nuclear reactors. The Indian government intends to use these measures to increase nuclear capacity to 22 GW by 2032, 47 GW by 2037, 67 GW by 2042, and finally 100 GW by 2047. India and Russia maintain a strategic civil nuclear partnership centered on the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant (KKNPP) in Tamil Nadu, where Russia is building six 1000 MW reactors and supplying required nuclear fuel. With units 1 and 2 operational, Russia remains India’s primary supplier of nuclear fuel.