Oil prices fall as US, Iran agree to talks, easing conflict concerns
Oil prices fell on Thursday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, easing concerns of a potential military conflict between them that could disrupt supply from the key Middle East-producing region. Brent crude futures fell $1, or 1.4%, to $68.47 per barrel at 0152 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 91 cents, or also 1.4%, to trade at $64.23. Oil prices surged about 3% on Wednesday after a media report suggested the planned talks between the United States and Iran on Friday could collapse. However, later in the day officials from both sides said talks would go ahead on Friday though the topics up for discussion have not been settled. Tony Sycamore, market analyst with IG, pointed to the uncertainty around the talks as the reason for the swings, noting the price surge on fears of their collapse but they were easing as “these fears have since moderated on reports that the nuclear talks are back on.” Iran is open to discussing its nuclear programme, including uranium enrichment, with Western countries, while the U.S. also wants to include Iran’s ballistic missiles, its support for armed proxy groups around the Middle East and its treatment of its own people. Despite the talks, there are concerns U.S. President Donald Trump will still carry out his threats to strike Iran, the fourth-largest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, potentially risking a wider confrontation in the oil-rich region. In addition to the possible disruption of Iranian production in the event of a conflict, there are concerns exports from other Gulf producers could be affected. About a fifth of the world’s total oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz which lies between Oman and Iran. Other OPEC members, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq, export most of their crude via the strait, as well as Iran itself. While the planned talks are reducing the recent risk premium in prices, the market was supported on Wednesday by data showing declines in oil inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude producer and consumer. U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories fell while gasoline inventories rose in the week ended January 30 as a winter storm gripped large swathes of the country, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.
India open to Venezuela oil imports subject to commercial viability: MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal
India remains open to exploring crude oil supplies from Venezuela and other sources, depending on commercial viability, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said on Thursday, outlining New Delhi’s position on energy security amid global supply uncertainties. “There is a history of engagement with Venezuela. We have a long-standing energy partnership with them, and we remain open to exploring options of availability of crude oil from Venezuela and other places, depending on its commercial viability,” Randhir Jaiswal said at a press conference.Responding to a query on India’s oil imports from Venezuela, MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said Venezuela has been a long-standing energy partner for India, both in trade and investment. U.S. President Donald Trump last week agreed to reduce tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% as part of a broader trade deal and claimed Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured him that the South Asian nation will stop buying Russian oil. Trump also said India will buy more oil from the U.S. and ‘potentially Venezuela’. Modi, however, did not comment on India’s plan to halt Russian oil imports in his message welcoming the trade deal. Jaiswal said ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion Indians is the “supreme priority” of the government. “As far as Venezuela is concerned, it has been a long-standing partner for us in the area of energy, both on the trade side and also on the investment side,” Jaiswal said during a media briefing. He noted that India had been importing crude oil from Venezuela until 2019–20, after which purchases were halted. “We were importing energy or crude oil from Venezuela till 2019–20 and thereafter, we had to stop,” he said. According to the MEA, India resumed buying oil from Venezuela in 2023–24, but those imports were again halted following the reimposition of sanctions. Jaiswal also highlighted the presence of Indian public sector undertakings (PSUs) in the South American nation. “Indian PSUs have established partnerships with the National Oil Company of Venezuela, PDVSA, and our PSUs have maintained a presence in the country since 2008,” he said. Emphasising India’s broader approach to securing energy supplies, the MEA spokesperson said the country remains pragmatic in its sourcing strategy. “Consistent with our approach to energy security, India remains open to exploring the commercial merits of any crude supply options,” Jaiswal said. India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer, had twice in the past halted imports from Venezuela under pressure from sanctions in 2019-20 and 2023-24.
Russia Signals It Will Keep Sending Oil to Cuba Despite U.S. Pressure
Russia has been supplying crude oil to Cuba repeatedly over the past few years and supplies will continue, the Russian ambassador to Havana, Viktor Koronelli, told state news agency RIA today. The statement comes following the latest U.S. squeeze on Cuba, with President Trump threatening tariffs on countries that continue sending crude to the island nation, warning it had about two weeks’ worth of oil earlier this month. Trump is aiming for regime change in Cuba. Despite the threats, Mexico’s state oil company said this week it intended to uphold its contract with the government in Havanna and continue shipping oil there. That statement follows reports about Pemex canceling a planned oil cargo for Cuba at the end of January in response to Trump’s pressure campaign, with Reuters noting that the Mexican leadership was worried about getting punished by Washington if it kept shipping oil to Cuba. President Claudia Scheinbaum, however, said that Pemex’s decision to suspend that shipment was made on the grounds of price considerations and not under U.S. pressure. Mexico has been exporting oil to Cuba at a rate of between 17,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd as of 2024 and early 2025. The island’s biggest oil supplier, however, was Venezuela, until the U.S. removed President Nicolas Maduro and took over the country’s oil industry. Between January and September last year, Mexico shipped roughly 17,200 barrels per day of crude oil and 2,000 bpd of refined products to Cuba, according to Pemex filings. This may be modest by global standards, but it is what keeps Cuba’s power plants and transportation running. Commenting on the events in Venezuela with regard to Cuba, Russia’s Koronelli said that it may be too premature to talk about Cuba losing an ally, although he acknowledged that “relations in certain spheres had changed format.”
GAIL contests latest Petroleum & Natural Gas regulator’s tariff order
GAIL, the country’s largest gas transporter, has challenged the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board’s (PNGRB) latest tariff order, citing “apparent mistakes” by the regulator, its finance chief said. The PNGRB recently approved a tariff of ₹65.69 per mmBtu for GAIL’s integrated pipeline network, a 12% increase over last year’s ₹58.60 but well below the ₹78 per mmBtu sought by the company. GAIL has appealed the order, arguing that the regulator wrongly excluded future capital and operational expenditure while determining the tariff, Rakesh Jain, director (finance), told ET. While PNGRB accepted higher gas transmission volumes, it did not allow a proportionate increase in transmission losses, which weighed on the tariff, he said. Jain said the regulator erred in how it treated gains from pipeline capacity utilisation above 75%. Under the rules, such gains are to be shared equally between the operator and customers, but the PNGRB passed the entire benefit to customers, he said. “These, in our view, are apparent mistakes. So, we have filed an appeal with the PNGRB,” Jain said. A lower tariff approval could ultimately hurt consumers, he said. “It looks like a loss in the short term (for us), but we will get the money eventually. The customer will then have to pay much more.” GAIL is entitled to a 12% post-tax return on capital employed through tariffs, Jain said.
India Weighs Cheap Russian Oil Against Costly U.S. Trade Commitments
Russia’s flagship crude, Urals, is being offered in India at a widening discount to Brent, with the differential now at $11 per barrel and testing the appetite of Indian refiners amid the trade deal with the U.S. that calls for limited purchases of Russian oil. Sellers are offering Urals at an $11 per barrel discount this week, widened from about $9 a barrel ten days ago, anonymous traders involved in the offerings told Bloomberg on Wednesday. Typically, such steep discounts would have Indian refiners rushing to lock in purchases. However, the U.S.-India trade deal and lower tariffs for Indian products in the United States depend on India slashing imports of Russian crude oil. Refiners in India are reportedly waiting for government guidance on how to proceed, if at all, with Russian oil purchases. Following the trade deal announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, Indian refiners seek clarification about Russian oil imports from their government, with some pre-emptively halting purchases, sources with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg earlier this week. President Trump broke the news of a deal with India on Monday, saying the U.S. would reduce tariffs on Indian imports in exchange for a commitment on the part of New Delhi to stop buying crude oil from Russia and boost purchases of American oil instead, along with other goods and commodities. The deal would also grant Indian energy buyers access to Venezuelan crude and maybe even Iranian crude, as suggested by the U.S. President, providing alternatives to Russian crude. India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, dramatically raised its imports of cheap Russian crude following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. For nearly four years, India imported so much Russian crude that Russia became its single biggest oil supplier, accounting for about a third of all imported crude. But now refiners are temporarily halting Russian oil purchases and seeking clarification. Regardless of the cheap Russian crude currently on offer, India will have to take into account the U.S. deal and its implications.
Russia Shrugs Off India’s Oil Deal With Trump
Russia sees no danger for its oil exports from the trade deal that the U.S. president sealed with his Indian counterpart earlier this week. Per the deal, Washington will cut tariffs on Indian goods, and New Delhi will commit to expanding purchases of U.S. oil and gas. “We, along with all other international energy experts, are well aware that Russia is not the only supplier of oil and petroleum products to India. India has always purchased these products from other countries. Therefore, we see nothing new here,” Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, told the media, as quoted by The Hindu earlier today. “The American shale oil they export is light grades, similar to gas condensate. Russia, on the other hand, supplies relatively heavy, sulfur-rich Urals. This means India will need to blend U.S. crude with other grades, which incurs additional costs, meaning a simple substitution won’t be possible,” an energy expert from Russia’s National Energy Security Fund said. The news of the deal was taken by most observers to mean a further squeeze on Russian oil exports to India, although some analysts noted that India will be hard-pressed to reduce its intake of Russian crude, which accounts for about a third of total imports to date, up from a minuscule 2% before 2022. For nearly four years, India imported so much Russian crude that Russia became its single biggest oil supplier, accounting for about a third of all imported crude. However, Indian refiners have recently scaled down purchases of Russian crude following the U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. Indian refiners have halted imports from the now-sanctioned entities and turned to non-sanctioned Russian supply and alternative cargoes from the Middle East, the Americas, and, to a lesser extent, West Africa, depending on prices. The deal with Trump will open up access to Venezuelan and possibly even Iranian oil, analysts said, following the news, to reduce purchases from Russia.
IGX traded gas volume of 8.4 million mmbtu (212 mmscm), up by 50% MoM & 17% YoY
January’26, IGX achieved monthly trade gas volume of 8.4 million MMBtu (212 MMSCM), volume up by 50% MoM & 17% YoY basis, the rise in volume was primarily due to CGD demand & domestic HPHT gas trade volume. Around 16% of the traded volume was free-market gas, while 84% was domestic HPHT gas at the ceiling price (₹878 or $9.72/MMBtu). Nearly 8 MMSCM of domestic gas with pricing freedom was traded by producers at Bokaro (CBM), Jaya, KG Basin, and Hazira-ONGC delivery points. Indian Gas Exchange’s benchmark price index, GIXI®, for January 2026 was ₹962/$10.6 per MMBtu—down by 3% MoM & 21% YoY. Prices trended on a downward YoY basis, due to increased local supply. International prices trended upward MoM basis due to extended winters and geopolitical reason, with European and Asian spot gas benchmarks monthly average as follows: TTF at $13/MMBtu (up by 32% MoM, down by 19% YoY), WIM-Ex Dahej at $11.4/MMBtu (up by 8% MoM & down by 25% YoY), while US Henry Hub averaged at $4.1/MMBtu (down by 7% MoM, up by 10% YoY).
LPG support remains central to ministry spending
The Petroleum Ministry budget remains overwhelmingly subsidy-driven. A one-time grant of Rs 175 billion has been provided in 2026–27 to public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs) to compensate for under-recoveries on domestic LPG sales, following a Rs 125 billion provision in the revised estimates for 2025–26. In addition, total LPG subsidy outgo, including direct benefit transfer and connections to poor households, stands at Rs 110.845 billion in 2026–27. An extra Rs 10 billion is to be met from the Oil Industry Development Fund to finance LPG connections for poor households. Biofuels get a sharper push from a low base Biofuels emerge as one of the few areas seeing a meaningful increase in budgetary support. Allocations for the Pradhan Mantri JI-VAN Yojana, which supports advanced bioethanol projects, have been raised to Rs 1969 million in 2026–27 from Rs 379 million in the previous year’s revised estimates. Support for biomass collection has also been increased to Rs 1 billion from Rs 100 million, pointing to a renewed focus on feedstock availability for bioenergy programmes, albeit from a relatively small base.
Trump’s India pact to make big dent in Russian oil revenue
Russia faces a steep drop in oil income if U.S. President Donald Trump successfully pressures India to stop importing Russian crude, because losing its top purchaser of seaborne exports would force Moscow to slash prices to find other buyers, analysts and traders said. Trump on Monday cut U.S. tariffs on Indian goods in a trade deal he said also included provisions for India to halt oil imports from Russia, the world’s second-biggest oil exporter. The United States is putting pressure on Russia to agree a peace deal in Ukraine. Trump has over the past year already claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil. India never halted imports, however, citing its need for energy security and for cheap oil. The Kremlin says energy cooperation with India, its second largest oil buyer after China, is strong after Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the country in December 2025. But Indian refiners are taking a cautious approach to Russian oil purchases, which is already hurting Moscow’s income. Russian oil imports dropped 22% to 1.38 million barrels per day in December from November, their lowest since January 2023, reducing Russia’s share in Indian imports to 27.4% while OPEC’s share rose to 53.2%, according to Reuters’ calculations. That follows a peak in India’s Russian oil imports at around 2 million barrels per day in June 2025. “Any further reduction would already be meaningful, because there is only one relevant alternative buyer – China – which has also its limitations in taking in sanctioned crude,” said David Wech from Vortexa consultancy. The pressure on Russia is increasing as oil discounts widen and fewer buyers are willing to take the risk, Wech said. Prices for Russian oil have sunk to record lows, while Russia’s budget shows a deficit due to a shortfall in energy revenues, according to a government official.