UAE loses out as India opts for cheaper Russian naphtha
The UAE, led by Abu Dhabi, has lost its position as India’s biggest supplier of the refined crude oil product naphtha as discounted Russian cargoes flood the market. Naphtha has many uses including as a precursor to gasoline and other liquid fuels, and as solvents or diluents for paints and the rubber industry. India is Asia’s seventh biggest importer of naphtha, having imported 3 million tonnes in the previous 12 months. According to ship-tracking data from OilX and Kpler, the UAE’s share of India’s naphtha imports – primarily supplied by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) – has dropped to just over 20 percent from close to 40 percent a year ago. By contrast, Russia’s share of India’s naphtha imports has grown by 15 percentage points to more than 50 percent now, the data show.
Trump: 25% Tariff On Anyone Who Buys Venezuelan Oil & Gas
U.S. President Donald Trump has announced that any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25% secondary tariff on trades with the United States, Reuters reported on Monday, with Trump claiming that Venezuela has sent “tens of thousands” of people to the U.S. who have a “very violent nature. Earlier this month, Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) received a 30-day notice from the Trump administration to wrap up its operations in Venezuela. The deadline, set for April 3, provides the company only 30 days instead of the normal six-month wind-down period. Since 2022, Chevron has been allowed to operate in Venezuela as an exception to U.S. sanctions, exporting crude to the United States. According to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other foreign-policy hawks, Chevron has been providing a financial lifeline for Maduro’s regime to enrich itself and suppress civil rights. Venezuela produced about 20% of Venezuela’s oil in 2024, close to Maduro’s goal of 1 million barrels per day. Chevron is the only major oil producer with a waiver to operate in Venezuela despite Washington’s sanctions against President Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Last year, the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) eased some sanctions on Venezuela but retained sanctions on PdVSA. OFAC has issued a new license allowing certain transactions related to the export or re-export of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to Venezuela until July 8, 2025. However, transactions with Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A., the Venezuelan state-owned oil and natural gas company in which PdVSA has a 50 percent or greater interest, remain prohibited under the sanctions imposed by various executive orders. Venezuela’s crude oil production has declined sharply from 3.2 million b/d in 2000 to 735,000 b/d in September 2023 mainly due to sanctions and poor maintenance; in contrast, Argentina’s crude output has been increasing with Argentine President Javier Milei vowing to shake up the system.
Indian Refineries Slashing Spot Tenders as Russian Oil Flows Back
Indian refiners will issue fewer tenders for the purchase of crude oil on the spot market in the coming month as Russian supplies bounce back, Reuters has reported. Previously, Bharat Petroleum CFO revealed that middlemen who supply Russian oil stopped offering cargoes following U.S. sanctions imposed by the Biden administration targeted Russian producers, tankers and insurers. The sanctions targeted Surgutneftgas and Gazprom Neft, two Russian oil firms that handle 25% of Russian oil exports. The two companies shipped an average of 970,000 bbls a day in 2024. Bharat Petroleum and other Indian state refiners buy Russian oil in the spot market, mainly from traders. Freight rates to ship Russian Urals from Baltic ports to India jumped 20% in February to $7 million to $8 million per voyage after the Biden administration imposed harsher sanctions on Russian crude. Russia’s provisional February loading plan for western ports was revised up by 19% to 1.9 million barrels per day, Reuters calculations showed. Russian refineries are processing more crude oil in the hope of boosting fuel exports after the Biden administration imposed fresh sanctions on Russian crude. Last month, India pledged India to boost oil and gas imports from the U.S. in an effort to reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries. India made the promise after Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the country and met U.S. President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, India’s oil demand growth is estimated to have exceeded China’s for the first time in 2024, and is expected to do so again in 2025. According to Kang Wu, global head of macro and oil demand research at SPGCI, India’s oil demand in the current year grew by 180,000 barrels per day, surpassing China’s growth at 148,000 bpd. India’s oil demand is expected to increase by 3.2% Y/Y in 2025 compared to a 1.7% clip by China.
India Set to Tap Vast Oil Reserves With Multi-Billion Dollar Investments
Amid concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s hard-hitting tariff policy, diversified Indian financial services company Motilal Oswal has suggested that India could strengthen its domestic industries and ramp up local production. Trump has a history of imposing heavy tariffs on India, including 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imposed in 2018. The tariffs had an inimical effect on India’s trade with the U.S., with steel exports plunging 46% one year after the tariffs were announced. Meanwhile, India’s heavy reliance on oil imports leads to huge capital outflows and a weaker rupee. India imports 87% of its oil, mainly from Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the U.S. India spent $132.4 billion on crude oil imports in the 12 months up to mid-2024, a 16% Y/Y drop thanks to lower oil prices. Luckily, India is well endowed with substantial oil reserves. Last year, S&P Global Commodity Insights reported that four largely unexplored sedimentary basins in India could hold up to 22 billion barrels of oil. In effect, lesser-known Category-II and III basins namely Mahanadi, Andaman Sea, Bengal, and Kerala-Konkan contain more oil than the Permian Basin which has already produced 14 billion of its 34 billion barrels of recoverable oil reserves. Rahul Chauhan, an upstream analyst at Commodity Insights, has emphasized the potential of India’s unexplored Oil & Gas sector, “ONGC and Oil India hold acreages in the Andaman waters under the Open Acreage Licensing Program (OALP) and have planned a few significant projects. However, India still awaits the entry of an international oil company with deepwater and ultra-deepwater exploration expertise to participate in current and upcoming OALP bidding rounds and explore these frontier regions,” he has declared. Currently, only 10% of India’s 3.36 million sq km wide sedimentary basin is under exploration. However, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri says that figure will jump to 16% in 2024 following the award of blocks under the Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP) rounds. So far, OALP has resulted in the award of 144 blocks covering about 244,007 sq km. Under OALP, India allows upstream exploration companies to carve out areas for oil and gas exploration and put in an expression of interest for any area throughout the year. The interests are accumulated thrice a year following which they are put on auction. According to Puri, India’s Exploration and Production (E&P) activities in the oil and gas sector offer investment opportunities worth $100 billion by 2030. ndia boasts significant discoveries in the Krishna-Godavari, Barmer, and Assam basins, but exploration in other areas has been slower to develop. Of India’s 3.14 million square kilometers of sedimentary basins, 1.3 million sq km are in deep waters. India had its first foray into deepwater exploration in the Bay of Bengal in 2024 in the Krishna-Godavari Basin, courtesy of India’s state run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC). ONGC said it was planning to spend over $10 billion developing multiple deepwater projects in its KG-DWN-98/2 block in that basin. Meanwhile, state-owned upstream company Oil India Ltd is looking to start exploration activities in Nagaland “We have a total of 30 blocks under the OALP. We have already drilled all wells under the awarded OALP blocks, except in Nagaland. We are pursuing the ministry and they have set up a high power committee involving OIL, ONGC, government officials, to discuss the issue with the Government of Nagaland and resume exploration,” the official said. Unlike Pakistan, India is likely to have little trouble attracting the oil and gas majors. Indeed, British energy giant BP Plc (NYSE:BP) has been hunting for more opportunities in the country. BP has forged a joint venture with Indian multinational conglomerate Reliance Industries to operate 1,900 fuel retail stations across India and produces oil and gas from a deepwater block in the Krishna-Godavari basin. The JV has teamed up with ONGC to bid for exploration rights for an offshore block in India. Analysts have predicted that India is set to become the key driver of global oil demand growth, overtaking China. “China’s role as a global oil demand growth engine is fading fast,” Emma Richards, senior analyst at London-based Fitch Solutions Ltd, told The Times of India. According to the analyst, over the next decade, China’s share of emerging market oil demand growth will decline from nearly 50% to just 15% while India’s share will double to 24%. A rapidly growing population, which has likely surpassed China’s, is expected to be the main driver of consumption trends in India. Meanwhile, the country’s transition from traditional gasoline and diesel-fueled transport is expected to lag other regions, in sharp contrast to China’s skyrocketing adoption of electric vehicles and clean energy in general.