Russia faces a steep drop in oil income if U.S. President Donald Trump successfully pressures India to stop importing Russian crude, because losing its top purchaser of seaborne exports would force Moscow to slash prices to find other buyers, analysts and traders said.
Trump on Monday cut U.S. tariffs on Indian goods in a trade deal he said also included provisions for India to halt oil imports from Russia, the world’s second-biggest oil exporter. The United States is putting pressure on Russia to agree a peace deal in Ukraine.
Trump has over the past year already claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil.
India never halted imports, however, citing its need for energy security and for cheap oil. The Kremlin says energy cooperation with India, its second largest oil buyer after China, is strong after Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the country in December 2025.
But Indian refiners are taking a cautious approach to Russian oil purchases, which is already hurting Moscow’s income.
Russian oil imports dropped 22% to 1.38 million barrels per day in December from November, their lowest since January 2023, reducing Russia’s share in Indian imports to 27.4% while OPEC’s share rose to 53.2%, according to Reuters’ calculations.
That follows a peak in India’s Russian oil imports at around 2 million barrels per day in June 2025.
“Any further reduction would already be meaningful, because there is only one relevant alternative buyer – China – which has also its limitations in taking in sanctioned crude,” said David Wech from Vortexa consultancy.
The pressure on Russia is increasing as oil discounts widen and fewer buyers are willing to take the risk, Wech said.
Prices for Russian oil have sunk to record lows, while Russia’s budget shows a deficit due to a shortfall in energy revenues, according to a government official.