ONGC’s hi-tech pipeline to prevent oil theft, leakages in Ahmedabad
The Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), which for years has been suffering heavy financial losses due to theft from its crude oil pipeline, has gone hi-tech to prevent pilferage as well as leakages. ONGC has laid a new pipeline from its desalter at Nawagam in Ahmedabad district for transporting crude oil produced in its Ahmedabad and Mehsana assets to Indian Oil’s Koyali Refinery in Vadodara. “The 80-km pipeline has been laid at a cost of Rs1970 million. It is equipped with LDS (Leak Detection System) and PIDS (Pipeline Intrusion Detection System) technologies with fibre optic cables. The two systems would not only help in accurately identifying the spot of leakages, but also in detecting any intrusion activity taking place on the pipeline route,” Debasis Basu, asset manager of ONGC’s Ahmedabad Asset, told DNA. While the new oil pipeline was commissioned in January, officials said that the LDS and PIDS too are in advanced stages of completion, and are likely to be put to use by July. Basu said that they are also looking at ways to tackle theft from its producing as well as non-producing wells. ONGC said in a statement that it has adopted PIDS for the first time in its history. While exact numbers related to the financial loss to the energy behemoth due to leakages and pilferage are not available, it is pegged at several millions in a year. A number of cases of oil theft from its pipeline have been reported with the police. According to officials, the earlier pipeline was laid in the year 1990. However, being in operation for more than a quarter of a century, it was leaking frequently and had become a major source of loss of production. Additionally, there were frequent shutdowns, besides environmental degradation, loss of crop for farmers, and was also a potential safety hazard. Basu said that laying of the Nawagam-Koyali pipeline was a major challenge as its route ran through three river crossings, and had to be completed using the Horizontal Directional Drilling. The pipeline also crossed five railway crossings, two national highway crossings, besides numerous roads and canal crossings, he added. PROGRESS REPORT While new oil pipeline was commissioned in January, officials said the LDS and PIDS too are in advanced stages of completion, and are likely to be put to use by July. Matt Skura Womens Jersey
ONGC, OIL face risk of fuel subsidy sharing: Moody’s
State-run exploration and production companies Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd (ONGC) and Oil India Limited (OIL) face the increasing risk that the government of India will once again require them to share in the country’s fuel-subsidy burden, said Moody’s Investors Service in a note released on Tuesday. “Because of the government’s widening fiscal deficit, ONGC and OIL could be asked to bear part of the Indian government’s fuel subsidy for oil, if prices stay above $60 per barrel for the fiscal year ending March 2019,” said Vikas Halan, a Moody’s senior vice president. The two companies have since 2015 not contributed to fuel subsidies. They had, however, in previous years paid for more than 40% of the country’s annual subsidy bill. “The net impact of the subsidy sharing will be manageable for ONGC and OIL, even if the two companies are required to bear the entire shortfall between budgeted and actual amounts for the fiscal year ending March 2019,” added Halan. Moody’s added that if ONGC and OIL are obligated to contribute the entire subsidised amount exceeding the government’s budgeted figure for the fiscal year ending March 2019, such a requirement would constrain their net realised prices to $52-$56 per barrel. This is only marginally lower than or equal to the $56 for fiscal 2018. Moody’s estimates that fuel subsidies could total Rs340-530 billion in fiscal 2019, the highest since fiscal 2015, assuming Brent crude oil prices average $60-$80 per barrel. The government has budgeted for Rs250 billion of fuel subsidies in fiscal 2019, leaving a shortfall of Rs90-280 billion. This could be met by ONGC and OIL entirely, or in part, if the government increases the budget allocation for these subsidies. According to Moody’s, the oil marketing companies—Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd—have been asked to share less than 1% of the total fuel subsidies since fiscal 2012 and it is unlikely that the proportion will rise. The rating agency says that the government is unlikely to reverse fuel pricing deregulation because it remains committed to reforms. However, it could intervene to address record high prices of petrol and diesel by reducing the excise duty on these products, especially if oil prices stay high. These taxes make up more than 20% of the retail selling prices and were increased in 2016 when oil prices fell. Most petroleum products are sold at market-linked prices in India, except liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene. Malcolm Smith Womens Jersey
Analysis: India could provide Iranian crude with stable outlet at least in near term
Indian refiners could offer Iran some respite at least for the next few quarters as the South Asian crude oil importers are keen to adhere to their term supply contract obligations with the Persian Gulf producer, undeterred by Washington’s efforts to restrain Tehran’s oil sales. The US’ re-imposition of sanctions on Iran has exerted little impact on the trade flows between India and the OPEC producer so far. India’s state-run Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd., for one, is set to receive its regular monthly term crude oil cargo from National Iranian Oil Company in the coming days. BPCL’s 190,000 b/d Kochi refinery on the west coast of India will receive 130,000 mt of its monthly term Iranian crude oil for May, trade sources with knowledge of the matter told S&P Global Platts last week. Indian state-run refiners typically source their crude oil requirements through term contracts with a host of suppliers, including Iran. BPCL currently holds a term contract with NIOC to buy 1 million mt for its Kochi refinery over April 2018-March 2019. In April, the refinery received two cargoes totaling 260,000 mt of Iranian crude oil. The impact of US sanctions could be felt after six months, but “not immediately,” a New Delhi-based trade source said. India’s flagship state-run refiner Indian Oil Corp. also holds a term contract with Iran to receive 180,000 b/d in the current fiscal year ending March 2019. IOC is keen to maintain its trade relationship with NIOC as “Iran offers a longer credit period than the usual 30 days offered by other oil exporting nations,” a company official said. India, Asia’s second biggest energy consumer, had received regular supply of crude oil from Iran during the previous international sanctions against its unclear nuclear program. Among the top 10 suppliers to India, Iran occupied the third spot with around 18.4 million mt of crude oil imported during the first 10 months of the fiscal year over 2017-2018 — from April 2017 to January 2018 — according to the Indian oil ministry’s provisional data. MIXED RESPONSE IN ASIA India’s stable imports from Iran comes in stark contrast to other major Iranian crude oil buyers in Northeast Asia, with South Korea already well on its way to limit its crude intake from the OPEC producer. Latest trade data from Seoul showed that South Korea’s crude oil imports from Iran fell 24.9% year on year in April to 9.09 million barrels, marking the sixth straight month of declines since November last year, when imports fell 26.8% year on year to 10.37 million barrels. On the contrary, India’s crude oil imports from Iran are forecast to increase by around 31% year on year to 500,000 b/d in fiscal 2018-2019, as both the countries pledged for enhanced engagement in the oil and gas sector. In April, India offered a fresh $4 billion development plan for the Farzad B gas field to Iranian oil minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh during the latter’s visit to the South Asian nation. India’s oil ministry officials said it is still early to assess what would be the fallout of US President Donald Trump’s move to restore sanctions on Iran, and its implications on India’s next term contracts with NIOC. “As a crude buyer, we have all options open that include imports from the US. But the main determinant will be a competitive price,” a senior official with an Indian state-run refiner said. Earlier this month, NIOC had raised the June OSP for Iranian Heavy crude bound for Asia by 85 cents/b from May, to a discount of 65 cents/b to the average of Platts Oman/Dubai crude assessments in June. The latest monthly price tag puts the Iranian grade’s OSP differential 60 cents/b cheaper than its rival Saudi Arabia’s crude. Saudi Aramco has set the June OSP for Arab Medium grade bound for Asia at Platts Oman/Dubai average minus 5 cents/b. Marreese Speights Jersey
ONGC, OIL face risk of fuel subsidy sharing: Moody’s
State-run exploration and production companies Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd (ONGC) and Oil India Limited (OIL) face the increasing risk that the government of India will once again require them to share in the country’s fuel-subsidy burden, said Moody’s Investors Service in a note released on Tuesday. “Because of the government’s widening fiscal deficit, ONGC and OIL could be asked to bear part of the Indian government’s fuel subsidy for oil, if prices stay above $60 per barrel for the fiscal year ending March 2019,” said Vikas Halan, a Moody’s senior vice president. The two companies have since 2015 not contributed to fuel subsidies. They had, however, in previous years paid for more than 40% of the country’s annual subsidy bill. “The net impact of the subsidy sharing will be manageable for ONGC and OIL, even if the two companies are required to bear the entire shortfall between budgeted and actual amounts for the fiscal year ending March 2019,” added Halan. Moody’s added that if ONGC and OIL are obligated to contribute the entire subsidised amount exceeding the government’s budgeted figure for the fiscal year ending March 2019, such a requirement would constrain their net realised prices to $52-$56 per barrel. This is only marginally lower than or equal to the $56 for fiscal 2018. Moody’s estimates that fuel subsidies could total Rs340-530 billion in fiscal 2019, the highest since fiscal 2015, assuming Brent crude oil prices average $60-$80 per barrel. The government has budgeted for Rs250 billion of fuel subsidies in fiscal 2019, leaving a shortfall of Rs90-280 billion. This could be met by ONGC and OIL entirely, or in part, if the government increases the budget allocation for these subsidies. According to Moody’s, the oil marketing companies—Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd—have been asked to share less than 1% of the total fuel subsidies since fiscal 2012 and it is unlikely that the proportion will rise. The rating agency says that the government is unlikely to reverse fuel pricing deregulation because it remains committed to reforms. However, it could intervene to address record high prices of petrol and diesel by reducing the excise duty on these products, especially if oil prices stay high. These taxes make up more than 20% of the retail selling prices and were increased in 2016 when oil prices fell. Most petroleum products are sold at market-linked prices in India, except liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene. Alexander Nylander Authentic Jersey
Australia’s Santos gets sweetened $10.8 bln bid from Harbour Energy
U.S.-based Harbour Energy raised its bid for Australia’s Santos Ltd to $10.8 billion on Monday, hiking its offer for a fifth time in nine months after a steep rise in oil prices and potentially deterring any rival bids. Shares in the oil and gas producer rose on the back of the sweetened bid but remain below the offer price amid uncertainty over whether the government will approve what would be the biggest takeover of an Australian resources company. “You’ve got to think the new bump is going to make it more likely the board will approve it…But there are risks,” said Andy Forster, senior investment officer at Argo Investments, a top 10 shareholder in Santos. Analysts have said the government might raise concerns that a takeover could dent gas supply on Australia’s east coast and could even raise questions about foreign companies not paying enough tax in Australia. A successful bid would give Harbour access to a recently revived company with a low cost of gas production and stakes in liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Asia-Pacific, where demand is soaring. Harbour’s latest offer, raised twice over the past five days, is equivalent to A$6.95 a share at an exchange rate of 75 U.S. cents to 1 Australian dollar and is at an 11-percent premium to the last close of Santos shares on Friday. “The new higher bids underline Harbour’s desire to receive the board recommended it needs and in our view staves off any ambitions from an interloper,” Royal Bank of Canada analysts said in a note on Monday. Argo’s Forster said the prospect of receiving a special dividend with Australian tax credits attached as part of the bid was attractive. The special dividend would take the total bid value for local investors to around A$7.15 a share. The latest proposal, up 4.6 percent from an earlier offer, is conditional on Santos increasing its hedging of oil-linked production in 2018 and changing its hedges for 2019, Santos said in a statement. Harbour said the offer price would be increased slightly to a U.S. dollar amount equivalent to A$7.00 per share if Santos agreed to hedge 30 percent of oil-linked production in 2020, too. The requirement for Adelaide-based Santos to step up hedging on its oil-linked contracts is tied to securing funding for the deal, as Harbour will be taking on a lot of debt for the acquisition on top of Santos’ net debt, expected to be around $2 billion by the end of 2018. Hedging would lock in today’s higher oil prices and ensure cash flows needed to pay down debt. Harbour wants Santos to line up the hedges as the Australian company can do it more cheaply than Harbour can, which then gives Harbour the ability to make a higher offer, a person close to the transaction said. Oil prices have risen about 17 percent since Santos received Harbour’s $4.98 per share offer in April. Independent directors of Santos will consider the revised Harbour proposal, the company said. Marcus Cooper Authentic Jersey
BP back on its feet but CEO senses no respite
After the near collapse of his company following the 2010 Gulf of Mexico disaster and a three-year slump in oil prices, BP Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley is hardly relaxed. “It doesn’t feel like we are in a serene time for any energy company,” Dudley told Reuters in an interview. BP is stronger today than at any other time since the 2010 Deepwater Horizon rig accident. With oil prices at their highest since late 2014 and BP shares back to levels not seen in more than 8 years, it is once again in a position to contemplate boosting dividends and acquiring, Dudley said. Sitting in his office in BP’s central London headquarters in St James Square, Dudley, 62, said he intends to carry on leading the company into 2020 and navigate it through a phase of expansion and new uncertainty following a tumultuous eight years at the helm. The oil and gas sector is looking to retain its relevance as economies battle climate change by weaning themselves from their dependence on fossil fuels, a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. For BP, it is a two-speed race. The 110-year old company is undergoing its fastest growth in recent history with new oil and gas fields from Egypt and Oman to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, riding a tide of higher oil prices following the 2014 downturn. It is gradually paying off more than $65 billion in penalties and clean-up costs for the Deepwater Horizon accident which left 10 employees dead. Regarding the danger of the company going bankrupt at the time, Dudley said: “The worst moment was when I heard that our debt was untradable back in the summer of 2010… To me that was a moment of the unthinkable was possible.” Dudley says he no longer sees BP as an acquisition target after facing years of speculation it could be bought out. The company is focused on increasing production and cash flow while reducing its large debt pile, after which it will consider boosting shareholder returns such as dividends although “we’re not at that point yet”, Dudley said. Longer-term challenges also loom. Investors are increasingly pressing energy companies to find ways to adapt to the energy transition, and Dudley is looking to strike a balance between reducing a large carbon footprint while securing revenue. “This is the great dual challenge that the industry and BP faces: how to supply the world’s energy on multiple fronts of growing population and doing it with less emissions,” said Dudley, who was appointed to the helm of BP months after the April 2010 spill. BP, like rivals such as Royal Dutch Shell, is betting on natural gas, the least polluting hydrocarbon, to sustain an expected surge in demand for electricity as economies grow and transportation is electrified. Gas is also playing a key role as a back-up to renewable energy such as wind and solar in power generation. To that end, BP is expanding its gas production through new projects in Oman, Egypt and Trinidad and Tobago. Gas already accounts for over 55 percent of its production. “I am optimistic about the climate change if you can combine renewables wind and solar and natural gas. To me that’s part of the big answer,” Dudley said in an interview with Reuters. In the early 2000s BP introduced the slogan “Beyond Petroleum” and adopted a sunburst logo after launching an $8 billion expansion into renewables. The company was forced to write off its solar business 10 years later, but still retains a large U.S. onshore wind business and biofuels plants. Now, Dudley is taking a cautious approach, investing in smaller start-up companies in renewables, clean fuels and battery charging docks. “We have to go slow and pick the right low carbon fuels,” he said. BP “will be a broad-based company that supplies all forms of energy that are needed that can be done economically.” The company will invest $500 million per year in low-carbon energy and technology in the coming years out of a total spending of $15 to $17 billion, a range which Dudley said the company could stay within. “If a shareholder or someone else came to BP tomorrow and said here is $10 billion to invest in low carbon energies for us, we would not know how to do that yet.” BP is also expanding its vast global network of petrol stations and investing in convenience stores and charging spots, hoping to retain its dominant brand as electric vehicles become more popular. “I’m not worried about BP in this area. The most strategic thing we can do is to get our balance sheet strong so that when we have the firepower we can do anything in these areas.” LESSONS BP expects demand for oil to peak in the late 2030s, after which it will plateau and gradually decline. For BP, whose roots go back to 1908 with the discovery of Iran’s first oil field, the days of the black gold are far from dead. While oil prices in recent weeks have hit their highest levels since late 2014 at $80 a barrel, BP are working on an assumption that prices will remain at a range of $50-$65 per barrel due to surging U.S. shale output and OPEC’s ability to crank up output. Mega projects involving complex, multi-billion facilities such as huge offshore platforms that came to symbolise the technological prowess of the world’s top oil companies are most likely a thing of the past, Dudley said. Instead, BP is opting for phased developments that require less capital and less time to construct, which make them easier to control at a time of uncertainty over oil prices. “Many of the companies in the industry are remembering the lesson learnt during the $100 oil era (which) is take it in phases,” Dudley said. BP is applying this approach in many of its main production hubs such as Egypt and Gulf of Mexico, where it can continue raising production into the early 2020s, Dudley
IOC teams up with MCPI to set up Rs 10 billion polyester unit in Odisha
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is teaming up with Chatterjee group arm, MCPI to set up a Rs 10 billion polyester staple fibre (PSF) unit in Odisha. This is part of an overall investment drive taken up by the state government to attract big ticket investment in downstream units across industries in the state. The unit is scheduled to come up on 200 acres at Dhamnagar in the state’s Bhadrak district. It will source raw material from Haldia in West Bengal and have a 108 kta (kilo tonnes per annum) PSF capacity. It will also produce 180 kta of drawn texture yarn (DTY) and 36 kta of full drawn yarn (FDY) mainly used as technical textiles, which find wide use in industrial textile and in the garments trade. This is the second such downstream petrochem facility in the state, where IOC is also setting up a plastic park at Paradip close to its refinery. “We are reaching out to potential investors in West Bengal and across the country, offering them an opportunity to set up downstream units in these industrial parks,” Odisha’s principal secretary (industries department) Sanjeev Chopra said. The state government officials who are on a roadshow in the city, said they received good response from prospective investors. A similar roadshow is being planned to be held in Mumbai next month. Odisha, which is among the few states that allow private investors to set up industrial parks, has decided to provide all necessary infrastructure be it road, water and electricity connection right up to the gates. It is also providing 50 per cent subsidy on the infrastructure inside the park. Odisha officials also met Engineering Exports promotion Council (EEPC) officials and some 20-odd representatives of forging and casting units based in Howrah to attract them in setting up units in the state. As part of Odisha’s Vision Document 2030, the target is to achieve 50 per cent value addition of primary metal produced within the state from the current level of 10 per cent, Chopra said. “While metal majors like Hindalco, National Aluminium (Nalco), Jindal Stainless, JSPL, Tata Steel or Vedanta have a manufacturing presence in our state, we have till now not had much success with downstream units in metal based industries. We have now decided to address this issue and are aiming at a raising the level of conversion of this primary metal into value added products within the state,” Chopra said. In step, the state has initiated talks with the likes of Tata Steel to set up an industrial park at Kalinganagar. While Tata Steel will provide raw material and hand hold smaller units that choose to set up base in the industrial park. Vedanta is looking at a similar facility at Jharsuguda he added while Nalco which is setting up an aluminium park and Angul has already received proposals worth Rs 12-13 billion. Austin Czarnik Authentic Jersey
Reintroduce Administered Prices on Petro Products: CPI
The National Secretariat of the Communist Party of India today demanded reintroduction of administered price mechanism on petroleum products. In a statement here, S Sudhakar Reddy, General Secretary, said the prices of petrol and diesel since May 14, 2018 have been on the rise and will continue unabated unless the government reintroduces the administered price mechanism that was prevalent in our country for decades. In a country like ours, committed constitutionally to the welfare of the people, leaving everything concerning the daily life of the common people to the whims and fancies of market forces tantamount to sheer negligence of people’s problems and total surrender to the corporate houses. Half the price of oil is only tax. After Modi took over as prime minister, taxes are increased nine times on oil prices. The statement said that reports already warn of an impending increase of Rs 4 per litre in petrol and diesel prices, alleging that the Modi government was only waiting for the Karnataka polls to be over. Since May 14, petrol price has risen by 69 paisa a litre that took rate in Delhi to Rs 75.32, the highest in almost five years. Diesel prices have gone up by 86 paisa a litre, that took the rate to their highest ever of Rs 66.79 a litre in Delhi. OMCs returned to daily price revision from May 14. CPI demands withdrawal of all the increased tax from 2014, so that the people can afford the fuel that is essential. The party urges upon all the party units, sympathizers, supporters and friends of the party to come out on streets demanding reintroduction of administered price mechanism on all petro products and reduction of additionally levied taxes, the statement added. (NSS). Josh Wilson Authentic Jersey
PetroChina cuts gas supplies to major users to prevent shortages
PetroChina, the country’s top gas producer, has curbed supplies of the fuel to some industrial users in northern and western regions, in the first sign of emerging tightness only two months after China experienced one of its worst winter gas crunches. To prevent another around of winter shortages, state-run PetroChina started from early May limiting gas supplies and hiking prices for major customers, including city gas distributors and inland gas liquefaction plants in some western provinces, four sources briefed on the matter said. They declined to be identified as they are not authorised to speak to the media. “Suppliers are managing the increases in demand, so that they won’t be caught up in a serious supply crunch later in the year,” said Chen Zhu, managing director of consultancy SIA Energy. China’s natural gas consumption rose almost 14 percent in the first four months of the year to 71.1 million tonnes, according to Reuters calculations based on official data. That led to a surge in spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in recent weeks and has lifted prices to a two-month high of $8.7 per million British thermal unit . The expansion in demand, driven by an extension of Beijing’s gasification drive and an improving economy, exceeds a 10-percent annual growth forecast by state energy giant CNPC early this year. PetroChina did not respond to a Reuters request for comment. The firm raised feed prices to 1.78 yuan ($0.2795) per cubic metre up from 1.68 yuan per cubic metre for big users in the western part of Inner Mongolia from May 11, a document reviewed by Reuters showed. It also halved the gas feed to Erdos Hong Ji Yi Tai Energy Co Ltd, a gas liquefaction plant based in Inner Mongolia, starting this week, an official from the plant said. “We were caught by surprise,” the official said. “This is the first time PetroChina has reduced our supplies ahead of summer. The price hike once again will dampen our margin.” He requested anonymity because he is not allowed to speak with media. Wang Haohao, an analyst with Zibo Longzhong Information Group, said the price hike and supply curb will likely hit all LNG plants in the Inner Mongolia region and neighbouring Shaanxi province. China operates more than 100 small inland LNG plants that source gas from state producers PetroChina and Sinopec and supply super-chilled fuel to steel mills, glass makers and residential compounds, users that are not covered by the pipeline grid. SUPPLY CAPS In another sign of supply curbs, PetroChina wanted to cap volumes supplied this year to the Inner Mongolia regional government at 2016 consumption levels, a government official told Reuters. “The negotiation reached a deadlock as we asked for more supplies for this year,” said the official. “The company is only willing to offer us the same amount they supplied in 2016, which is not enough. We cannot accept it” The official said a sweeping campaign to switch industries and household from coal to gas has led to a surge in the region’s demand for the fuel. In a broader attempt to avoid a winter squeeze, the state planner has asked national gas producers to sign annual supply contracts with major users by the end of April. State producers, however, are suffering ongoing losses in their import business of long-term oil-indexed LNG contracts as global oil hit multi-year highs of $80, while China’s domestic benchmark city-gate gas prices remained unchanged since last August, said SIA’s Chen. In debut trading at Chongqing Oil and Gas Exchange, PetroChina sold about 35 million cubic metres of piped gas at 0.155 yuan per cubic metre over government-set city-gate rates, or about a 10-percent premium, reflecting a tight market in a traditionally low season. Joonas Korpisalo Womens Jersey
Rise in crude prices poses risk to India’s current account deficit: Goldman Sachs
Crude oil prices may rise further in the coming months, following which India’s current account deficit will be around 2.4 per cent in 2018-19, says a Goldman Sachs report. According to the global financial services major, the rise in international crude prices poses risks to India’s current account deficit. “Our commodities team expects oil prices to continue to rise over the course of this summer, before moderating slightly at the end of the year. We recently increased our 2018-19 current account deficit (CAD)forecast to 2.4 per cent of GDP (from 2.1 per cent of GDP earlier),” Goldman Sachs said in a research note. CAD widened to 2 per cent or $13.5 billion in the October-December quarter of 2017, up from 1.4 per cent, or $8 billion, in the corresponding period a year ago. Globally, brent broke through the $80 a barrel mark yesterday for the first time since November 2014. “The recent spike in oil prices following the withdrawal of the US from the Iran nuclear deal poses additional upside risks to our headline inflation forecast. We estimate that a 10 per cent increase in crude oil prices leads headline inflation to rise by 10 basis points,” the report noted. Goldman Sachs forecasts 2018-19 headline CPI inflation to average 5.3 per cent. On RBI’s policy stance, the report said, a more hawkish stance by the central bank is likely following a weaker currency (the rupee has depreciated by 6.6 per cent against the US dollar year-to-date) and concerns over a rising current account and fiscal deficit. The Reserve Bank will announce its second bi-monthly monetary policy on June 6. “We expect RBI to keep policy rates on hold at its meeting on June 4-6, but shift to a hawkish tone,” it noted. The first bi-monthly monetary policy meeting of 2018-19 was held on April 4-5 and the panel had decided to maintain status quo on the interest rate citing inflationary concerns.