The Top 5 Oil Exploration Prospects of 2025
The global oil industry saw approximately 120 oil and gas discoveries in 2024, the overwhelming majority of which were small incremental reserve additions. This stands in contrast with the previous years when the 2022 discovery of Venus in Namibia, followed by the 2023 Mopane find in the same country, instilled hope in the global upstream community that multi-billion-barrel discoveries are still possible. Last year, it was only Kuwait’s al-Nokhatha that fit that description, and it could very well happen that the largest 2025 find would once again take place in Kuwait’s offshore. Now let’s look at the hottest exploration prospects of this year, potentially opening previously untapped frontier areas or simply adding a new twist to already producing basins. Jazza (Kuwait) Kuwait’s exploration efforts have been on fire lately. As of this writing, Kuwait does not operate any offshore fields in its territorial waters and has a 50% stake in the Khafji field located in the Neutral Zone. That said, the past two years have seen a string of offshore drilling successes from Kuwait, first with the play-opening discovery of al-Nokhatha (believed to contain some 2 billion barrels of oil) that was subsequently backed up by the al-Julaia find (reserves assessed around 0.8 billion barrels). With Kuwait’s national oil company KOC already dreaming big about bringing the Middle Eastern nation’s production capacity to 4 million b/d, an almost 1.5 million b/d increase compared to current OPEC+-capped output figures, the Jazza prospect could become the crown jewel of recent exploration efforts. The Jazza-1 wildcat is spudded to the southwest of al-Nokhatha, in relative proximity to the disputed Durra gas field, suggesting that a dry well would be very unlikely. Korikori (Suriname) US oil major Chevron will be looking forward to a series of high-impact decisions this year. The Chevron-Exxon arbitration regarding Hess’ Guyanese assets will foreshadow its expansion into South America’s new frontiers, whilst its Korikori-1 exploration well could boost that portfolio with a new entry point, Suriname. Suriname’s shallow water remains a terra incognita for oil drillers as the first reflex of oil companies was to appraise the blocks immediately bordering Guyana’s Stabroek license. Following a set of discoveries and even a final investment decision on the 200,000 b/d Gran Morgu project (combining the Sapakara and Krabdagu finds), the time has come for oil firms to look towards shallow water plays. Chevron is set to drill Korikori in Q4 2025, suggesting we will only hear about its commercial qualities by early next year. Elektra (Cyprus) Chevron’s much-awaited approval for the $4 billion Aphrodite gas field in offshore Cyprus happens at the right time for other drillers in the Eastern Mediterranean. Suddenly, the option of exporting natural gas to Egypt is a workable scenario that avoids the pitfalls of building costly floating liquefaction terminals. Against this background, ExxonMobil is preparing to drill its Elektra exploration well, potentially the biggest natural gas find of this year with the US major setting estimated pre-drill volumes at 1.7-1.8 bboe. Electra is in the immediate vicinity of Egypt’s Zohr, meaning ample hydrocarbon plays are almost guaranteed, even if their subsequent recoverability might be limited by water influx and reservoir pressure issues. The increasing sophistication of subsea infrastructure would also allow ExxonMobil to tie in any potential Elektra gas production into the existing evacuation system. The Valaris DS-9 drillship started drilling in late January, with results expected towards the end of Q1 2025. Area C (Libya) Exploration efforts in Libya have been wrapped in a mystery over the past decade, with European majors Repsol, Eni and TotalEnergies making a gradual comeback to the North African country last year. Whilst most of those upstream activities were taking place in well-established basins such as the coastal Ghadames or Murzuq further inland, Eni is poised to test Libya’s deepwater offshore, for the first time ever. Together with project partner BP, the Matsola-1 well (to be drilled in Q4 2025) could confirm that the onshore Sirte Basin extends into the seas as well. The Libyan Civil War derailed many highly promising offshore projects, including Hess Corp’s 2009 Arous al Bahar gas discovery that was poised to become a frontier-opening gas project. Eni’s drilling is in the immediate vicinity of Hess’ discovery and could well kickstart further appraisal works in the Gulf of Sirte. Libya’s offshore projects have been immune to the country’s notorious power struggles (it’s quite difficult to blockade an offshore platform), with the two main producing fields – Bouri and al-Jurf – remaining operational all throughout the bloody 2011-2020 period. DWOB (South Africa) TotalEnergies’ Venus discovery became the largest oil and gas discovery of 2022 and kickstarted a Namibian oil rush in 2023-2024 as everyone wanted to make sure they don’t miss out on the latest exploration frontier. Despite Shell writing down some Namibian discoveries as sub-commercial, the drilling frenzy in Namibian waters is far from over. The same TotalEnergies is now aiming to develop South Africa’s Deep Water Orange Basin (DWOB) block that abuts its Namibian projects across the Orange Basin, hoping that the prolific oil resources of Venus extend southwards. DWOB is relatively far away from the shore, some 200 km or 125 miles, in water depths that mostly range between 1,500 m and 3,000 m. Namibia’s offshore discoveries contained a lot of natural gas – one of the main reasons why Venus will not see commissioning until at least 2029 is the difficulty of marketing the gas – and DWOB would most probably have the same problem. That said, some estimates put the total recoverable resource at 1 boe, which would be a welcome boost to Total’s African portfolio. With the spudding expected to start only in late 2025, we would not see the results of DWOB drilling before 2026. THE ONES THAT DIDN’T MAKE IT Whilst Jazza or Korikori could still become the largest oil discovery of 2025, several hydrocarbon prospects are already out of the game, either hitting sub-commercial volumes of oil or not finding any resource at all. A lot of
Shell forecasts global LNG demand to increase by 60% by 2040
Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is projected to rise by approximately 60% by 2040, primarily fuelled by economic expansion in Asia, according to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2025 report. The report highlights the increasing demand for natural gas as the world transitions to cleaner energy sources. The impact of AI and efforts to reduce emissions in heavy industries and transportation will also contribute to the demand, the report stated. Industry forecasts predict LNG demand will reach between 630 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) and 718mtpa by 2040. This projection surpasses last year’s forecast, which estimated global LNG demand in 2040 to be between 625mtpa and 685mtpa. Shell senior vice-president for LNG marketing and trading Tom Summers said: “Upgraded forecasts show that the world will need more gas for power generation, heating and cooling, industry and transport to meet development and decarbonisation goals. “LNG will continue to be a fuel of choice because it is a reliable, flexible and adaptable way to meet growing global energy demand.” China, the leading LNG importer, and India are expanding LNG import capacity and related infrastructure to accommodate the growing demand, Shell noted. LNG demand in Asia grew in the first half of 2024, as China capitalised on lower prices, importing 79 million tonnes (mt) during the year. India also bought record amounts to meet higher power demand caused by hotter weather in early summer, with its imports rising by 20% to 27mt compared with 2023. Shell has indicated that, in response to the increasing demand, particularly in Asia, more than 170mt of additional LNG supply is projected to be available by 2030.
India looking at increasing ethanol blending with petrol to over 20%: Hardeep Singh Puri
India is looking at increasing its target to blend ethanol with petrol to more than 20% and has formed a committee under the NITI Aayog to look into it, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep S. Puri said on Wednesday (February 26, 2025). Addressing the Advantage Assam 2.0 business summit, he said 19.6% blending has already been achieved. “We will be looking at more than 20% blending of biofuel. Already a NITI Aayog group has been set up and they are looking into it,” he said. Mr. Puri said that all the fossil fuel production companies will achieve net zero by 2045, even though India has developmental challenges.
TAPI Pipeline to Remain Failure Without India and Pakistan’s Participation
During a cabinet meeting on February 7, President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov urged Turkmen officials to accelerate the construction of the $10 billion Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline. While highlighting Turkmenistan’s energy policy for 2025, Berdimuhamedov stressed the need to modernize the energy sector on a priority basis to enhance the country’s oil and gas production capacity. When emphasizing reliable gas supplies to domestic and international markets, he urged for fast-track construction of the much-delayed TAPI pipeline (Afghanistan International, February 8; News Central Asia, February 10). The TAPI pipeline is a strategic energy transportation project, opening the Galkynysh gas field in Turkmenistan to the energy-starved markets of India and Pakistan (see EDM, June 6, 2023; News AZ, September 12, 2024). The TAPI pipeline is projected to transport 33 billion cubic meters (BCM) of natural gas each year from Turkmenistan’s gas field to the Indian city of Fazilka near the Pakistan border via Afghanistan and Pakistan through the construction of an approximately 1,800-kilometer (1,120-mile) long pipeline (Business Turkmenistan, August 23, 2022; Interfax, January 14). The preliminary cost of the pipeline is estimated at $10 billion (Interfax, January 14). The project was launched in 2018, but the construction work could not proceed due to security concerns in Afghanistan (Pakistan Today, January 18, 2022). The state-owned Turkmengaz, a Turkmen energy company, has already completed a 214-kilometer (133-mile) section of the pipeline in Turkmenistan. In the TAPI project, Turkmengaz holds an 85 percent stake (Interfax, January 14). Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan hold the remaining stakes with 5 percent of shares each (News AZ, September 12, 2024). In September 2024, Ashgabat and Kabul officially resumed work on the Afghanistan section of the TAPI gas pipeline project (Turkmen Portal, September 11, 2024). India has already raised concerns about this pipeline project on different grounds. In 2018, India objected to the price of natural gas and sought renegotiation (Economic Times India Times, August 22, 2018). India contended that the 2013 gas sale purchase agreement benchmarked the price of exported Turkmen gas at 55 percent of the prevailing crude oil price (Economic Times India Times, August 22, 2018). Moreover, transit fees and transportation charges would further increase the price of gas imported to India through the TAPI pipeline to over $10.5 per British thermal unit (mmBtu), which at the time was more than double the average rate of natural gas prices in India (Economic Times India Times, August 22, 2018). India also expressed dissatisfaction with the logistical and security challenges the project could face in constructing the pipeline through volatile areas in Afghanistan and Pakistan (South Asian Voices, November 6, 2024). New Delhi is also worried about becoming dependent on its arch-rival Pakistan for its gas supply. India considers that the pipeline would grant Pakistan leverage in the case of a future bilateral conflict, allowing Pakistan to potentially halt India’s gas supply (Economic Times India Times, September 17, 2024). New Delhi has not completely withdrawn from the project but has not firmly committed to joining it. India’s concerns make its participation in the TAPI pipeline uncertain, and due to this response, Pakistan is also losing interest in the project. Officials in Islamabad consider the TAPI pipeline project unsustainable for Pakistan without India’s participation. Pakistan would have to pay a transit fee of $500 million annually, not including a gas price of $7.5 per MMBtu (The News, November 6, 2024). The project would only be economical for Pakistan if India committed to paying a transit fee of $700–800 million per year to Pakistan. With India’s participation, Pakistan could save $200–300 million per year just in transit fees. India’s withdrawal from the project and Pakistan’s subsequent departure would mean an end to this pipeline, meaning Turkmenistan’s ambition and 30-year-long plans to export its gas to India and Pakistan’s major energy-starved markets would fail.
Oil India Limited CMD highlights bamboo-based 2G ethanol plant
At the Advantage Assam 2.0 Summit on Tuesday, Dr Ranjit Rath, Chairman & Managing Director (CMD) of Oil India Limited (OIL), underscored the company’s pioneering efforts in the energy sector, particularly the establishment of a bamboo feedstock-based second-generation (2G) ethanol plant at Numaligarh Refinery Limited(NRL). This initiative, he emphasized, aligns with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision for import substitution and self-reliance in energy production. He stated, “This is one of the path-breaking initiatives under which we are doing this. If you recall, the Prime Minister’s clarion call for import substitution, and so bamboo feedstock-based 2G ethanol plant; this will be one of its kind in the whole world. And given that we have a lot of bamboo as a grass.”
Natural Gas is Still a Dirty Word, But It’s Here to Stay: WoodMac
Natural gas will play a critical role in the global energy transition, serving as a bridge fuel between coal and renewables, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie. Despite concerns over emissions and affordability, gas is expected to remain a key part of the energy mix for decades, particularly in power generation, industrial processes, and transport. According to WoodMac, natural gas demand has surged 80% over the last 25 years, now accounting for nearly a quarter of global energy consumption. While electrification and renewables are expanding, they alone won’t be enough to meet rising global energy demand, especially in Asia and Europe. Gas provides flexibility, reliability, and a lower-carbon alternative to coal, which still powers 30% of the world’s energy needs. In Southeast Asia, countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines are expected to add up to 180 GW of new gas-fired power by 2050 to support economic growth. In China and India, natural gas demand is projected to rise 95 bcm by 2050, offering a practical path to reducing coal dependency. However, high LNG prices remain a key barrier to further adoption. Without a carbon price of $100/tonne, coal could remain the more attractive option for many Asian markets. Beyond power generation, natural gas is also enabling low-carbon technologies, including carbon capture and storage (CCS) and blue hydrogen. While green hydrogen remains too expensive for large-scale deployment, blue hydrogen—produced from natural gas with CCS—will help drive early adoption. WoodMac forecasts 40 Mt of blue hydrogen capacity by 2050. However, the report warns that gas is still a “dirty” word in climate discussions due to methane emissions and its fossil fuel status. Addressing LNG supply chain emissions and scaling up low-carbon alternatives like biomethane and e-methane will be critical to securing its long-term role. WoodMac argues that governments must balance net-zero goals with energy security, ensuring that gas remains a viable option if renewables and emerging technologies fail to scale fast enough. With the next wave of LNG supply expected in 2026, market dynamics could shift, making gas more affordable and reinforcing its position as an essential transition fuel.
India has lowest petroleum prices in the world, says Union Minister
Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri asserted that petroleum prices in India were the lowest in the world. The petroleum prices had come down in ‘absolute and real terms’ in the country, he said. The Minister was in the city to address a meeting on Budget with intellectuals and businessmen, on Friday. Addressing a press conference, Mr. Puri said that more oil was coming from the U.S., Brazil, Guyana, Suriname and Canada in the western hemisphere, while hinting at a price drop. ‘‘There is no shortage of oil. The number of India’s oil suppliers has already gone up from 27 to 40. And if more oil comes in, this is something that we welcome. Hopefully, the prices will come down,’‘ he said. The Minister, however, was quick to add that the government did not benefit from petroleum. The government, instead, had to give ₹220 billion to the oil companies. ‘‘In fact, petroleum prices have come down during the last three years. While a negative growth of -0.67% was witnessed with regard to petrol price, the diesel price increased marginally by 1.15%,’‘ he said. Referring to the Indian economy, the Union Minister said that India was part of the “Fragile Five” (a group of countries that were considered to be overly reliant on foreign investment for economic growth) when Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister in 2014. ‘‘The Indian economy developed significantly under his rule. It was the 10th largest economy then. India’s place improved and the country made strident steps since then: from 10th largest economy to the fifth largest and to the fourth largest. India will soon achieve a 4-trillion dollar economy,’‘ he said, adding, by 2027 India would become the third largest economy.
Good if we get Russian crude, but no major concern if we don’t: BPCL Director (Refineries) Sanjay Khanna
Fuel retailer Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) does not expect any disruption in supply of Russian crude to have significantly impact its profitability or crude supply security since discounts on Russian crude have shrunk considerably and there are numerous oil supply sources available, according to BPCL’s director (refineries) SANJAY KHANNA. As for its planned greenfield coastal refinery project in Andhra Pradesh, BPCL is open to taking on international oil majors as partners. A decision on this front is expected only when there is a “certain level of clarity” about this project. In an interview with SUKALP SHARMA, Khanna talks about oil imports and energy security, BPCL’s expansion plans, decarbonisation, and its energy transition and evolution path.
Oil Prices Inch Higher on Caspian Supply Disruption and Cold Weather in the U.S.
Crude oil prices rose today following a drone attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and cold weather in the United States, both disruptive to production. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $75.90 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $71.91 per barrel. A statement by the Russian government said that flows along the Caspian Pipeline Consortium infrastructure had dropped by between 30% and 40% on Tuesday following the terrorist attack that involved seven unmanned aerial vehicles, per a statement by the CPC. Reuters said the attack was carried out by Ukrainian forces. In U.S. news, North Dakota’s Pipeline Authority has warned the state’s crude oil and gas production rate could suffer a decline of between 120,000 bpd and 150,000 bpd because of frigid weather. North Dakota is the third-largest oil-producing state in the country. Additional fuel for oil prices came from Riyadh, where top Russian and U.S. diplomats met to discuss bilateral ties and their restoration, causing anxiety in Europe about the possibility of a deal on the Ukraine war that would not reckon with European Union desires and preferences. Counterpressure on prices came from statements from U.S. officials suggesting that sanctions on Russia could be lifted soon, which would make exports much easier, boosting global oil availability. The deal is not done, however, and the U.S. and Russia will meet again before there is clarity on any issue discussed. Further counterpressure came with the news that oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region could be restarted as soon as next month, after a prolonged pause amid disputes between Iraq and Turkey, to where the oil flows, and between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan autonomous government on the issue of oil revenue sharing. Like the U.S.-Russia deal on Ukraine, the restart is not certain.
Iranian Oil Exports to China Rebound
Iranian crude oil flows to China have rebounded this month after a U.S. crackdown on shipments launched in late 2024 decimated them in January. In a last-minute push to sanction Iran, the Biden admin blacklisted a number of tankers, trading entities, and shipping companies as participants in sanctioned oil trade. The February average of Iranian oil exports to its biggest buyer is set to average 1.74 million barrels daily, according to preliminary data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg. The figure is an 86% increase from January flows. The boost in shipments was enabled by the opening of new receiving terminals and more ship-to-ship transfers, the Bloomberg report noted. The Trump administration has threatened to return to the maximum pressure approach of Trump’s first term in a bid to force Iran to give u developing a nuclear weapon. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the target is to squeeze Iranian oil exports to a tenth of their current levels. Kpler said in a recent analysis that the return to a maximum pressure campaign against Iran on the part of Washington was likely to weaken oil exports to China, at least for a while. “Some buyers, particularly larger Chinese privately owned refiners, are likely to steer clear of such dealings as a precaution in the near term,” due to higher prices resulting from workarounds to avoid U.S. sanctions, Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi wrote. China’s private oil refiners, the so-called teapots, are key buyers of Iran’s sanctioned crude, and the two sides have established a trade relationship favorable for both. Iran gets to sell its crude that nearly everyone else shuns, while China’s independent refiners, the so-called teapots, get cheap oil. However, the tougher U.S. squeeze on Iran’s oil industry will inevitably lift prices, which would affect buying decisions, as noted by Kpler.