India achieves historic milestone in renewable energy sector, adds 25 GW of capacity in FY 25
The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) achieved historic milestone in the renewable energy sector for the financial year 2024-25. The country has added an unprecedented 25 GW of renewable energy capacity, marking an increase of nearly 35% over the previous year’s addition of 18.57 GW. India’s solar power sector led the renewable energy growth, with capacity additions soaring from 15 GW in FY24 to nearly 21 GW in FY25, a remarkable 38% increase. The country also achieved the significant milestone of surpassing 100 GW of installed solar capacity this year.
GAIL opens fresh round of inviting proposals for equity investment in start-ups
Continuing its commitment to support innovative Start-Ups, GAIL (India) Limited on Tuesday launched the 10th round of its initiative ‘GAIL Pankh’ through which interested Start-Ups can apply for equity investment from the Maharatna PSU. They can apply through the link ‘GAIL Pankh’ on GAIL website https://gailonline.com. The 10th round will remain open from April 1, 2025 till May 31, 2025. Start-Ups operating in focus areas which mainly include Natural Gas, Petrochemicals, Energy, Project management, E-commerce, Fintech, IoT and Data mining, Environment, Health, Social, Security and Safety, may apply for funding. GAIL has a corpus of Rs 5 billion for its Start-Up initiative.
Saudi Arabia Faces Oil Price Dilemma
As Saudi Arabia pushes ahead with its ambitious Vision 2030 plan to build huge futuristic cities and resorts, the world’s top crude oil exporter will need to borrow more money on the debt markets as oil prices continue to linger at levels of about $20 per barrel lower than the Saudi fiscal breakeven oil price. The Kingdom, the leader and main architect of the OPEC+ production cuts, is starting to ease a small part of these cuts on April 1, per the group’s latest plan to add 138,000 barrels per day (bpd) to supply this month. Rising OPEC+ output this year could weigh down on oil prices, which have been hovering in the low $70s per barrel in recent weeks. That’s well below the $91 per barrel that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) thinks is the oil price needed to balance Saudi Arabia’s budget. With many uncertainties about global trade and economic and oil demand growth, the Kingdom may have to endure a prolonged period of lower-than-breakeven prices and raise its public debt. Borrowing will have to increase to cover planned expenditures, or spending on some mega projects and Vision 2030 programs could be delayed or reduced, analysts say. Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s main cash cow, oil giant Aramco, has just slashed its dividend, which further dents income for the Kingdom, the company’s main shareholder. Another Deficit In its 2025 Budget Statement, Saudi Arabia expects total expenditures of $342 billion (1.285 trillion Saudi riyals) as it continues to invest in projects to diversify the economy away from oil revenues, which account for about 61% of total Saudi government revenue. Revenues are projected to be lower than expenditures, at $316 billion (1.184 trillion riyals). These estimates indicate a deficit of $27 billion (101 billion riyals), which represents about 2.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). “The Government will continue funding and supporting the implementation of programs, initiatives, and economic transformation projects in line with Saudi Vision 2030, while maintaining spending efficiency and fiscal sustainability over the medium- and long-term,” the Ministry of Finance said in November. To fill in the deficit gap, Saudi Arabia will issue more debt this year, aiming “to take advantage of available market opportunities to implement alternative government fiscal operations that enhance economic growth, such as spending that is directed towards strategies, mega projects, and Saudi Vision 2030 programs.” Public debt is expected to rise to 29.9% of GDP by the end of 2025, up from 29.3% of GDP in 2024. Saudi Arabia will continue to borrow on the debt markets and explore other financing options this year as it has estimated its funding needs for 2025 are $37 billion (139 billion riyals) to cover the deficit and repay maturing debts. Lower Dividends from Aramco The funding needs are likely to be higher than these estimates from January, considering that Saudi Aramco said in early March that its dividend would be 30% lower this year. Aramco said that it expects total dividends of $85.4 billion to be declared in 2025. This is nearly 30% lower compared to last year’s $124 billion in dividends, which included about $43.1 billion in performance-linked dividends. The lower dividends for 2025 will cut revenues for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which is the biggest shareholder of Aramco via a direct stake of almost 81.5% and an indirect interest via the sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), which has 16% of Aramco. As the deficit widens with the slashed Aramco dividend, Saudi authorities have the flexibility to recalibrate investments, Fitch Ratings said last month. Fitch expects the Saudi government to cut capex and associated current spending this year. “Regular project recalibration has recently resulted in a scaling back and resequencing of certain projects, for example,” the credit rating agency noted. “This flexibility could ease the effect on Saudi Arabia’s public finances if oil prices are lower than we expect, though in Fitch’s view, lower investment spending could also have an impact on efforts to diversify the economy away from oil.” Ironically, the Saudi efforts to diversify the oil-reliant economy need a sustained period of healthy oil demand and relatively high oil prices. This year, the uncertainties about oil markets and oil prices are even higher than usual, with a new U.S. Administration seeking American dominance with tariffs on the biggest trade partners and upending foreign diplomacy. Tariffs could weigh on economies, including the U.S. and Chinese economies. If these slow down, demand for oil will slow, too, and oil prices will decline. So will Saudi Arabia’s oil revenues. The OPEC+ group’s production increase and expectations of weaker demand growth due to the U.S. tariff policies and the potential economic slowdown will cap oil price rises this year, the monthly Reuters poll showed on Monday. At around $70 oil, the short-term remedies for Saudi Arabia are to raise borrowing to finance the mega projects or delay some of these investments.
Sanctioned Russian Arctic LNG Plant Flares Gas After Long Lull
Russia’s Arctic liquefied natural gas plant appears to have flared fuel last week, satellite images show, a move that could indicate the restart of a sanctioned export facility that has effectively been shuttered since last October. Snapshots taken by the European Sentinel 2 satellite show the Arctic LNG 2 facility flaring gas on March 30. An earlier picture captured on March 22 did not show a flame or any indication of activity.
Trump’s Russian oil threat pushes India to seek alternatives
Indian refiners have rushed back to the market to seek crude supply after President Donald Trump’s threat of more penalties against Russia raised concerns over potential disruptions to oil flows. State-owned Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. are seeking additional supplies for May arrival from regions such as the Middle East, North Sea and Mediterranean, said people familiar with the matter. The trading cycle for barrels delivered next month is typically concluded in early March. On Sunday, Trump raised the prospect of so-called secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if President Vladimir Putin refused a ceasefire with Ukraine. The comments drove benchmark futures higher, with West Texas Intermediate surging 3.1% on Monday, the biggest gain in almost 11 weeks. The Indian refiners are seeking non-Russian supplies from the spot market to reduce their reliance on the OPEC+ member following Trump’s threat, said traders who received the tender notifications, asking not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly.
MoPNG sets April gas price at $7.26/mmBtu; deepwater cap till Sept $10.04
The ministry of petroleum and natural gas has notified the price of domestic natural gas for the period from April 1 to April 30, 2025, as $7.26 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on a Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis. The Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), in a notification dated March 31, 2025, said, “In accordance with MoPNG’s Notification No.L-12015/1/2022-GP-I dated 7 April 2023, the price of domestic natural gas for the period 1st April 2025 to 30th April 2025 is notified as US$ 7.26 /MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis.” It further stated that for gas produced by Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Ltd (OIL) from their nomination fields, the price shall be subject to a ceiling of $6.75/mmBtu on GCV basis for the same period, in accordance with Para 4 of the notification dated 7 April 2023. In a separate notification issued on the same date, the ministry also announced the ceiling price for gas produced from difficult fields such as deepwater, ultra deepwater, and high-pressure-high-temperature (HPHT) areas. The price ceiling for such gas has been set at $10.04/mmBtu for the period from April 1 to September 30, 2025.
Kazakhstan Is Taking Big Hits As Trump and Putin Feud
Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration has attempted to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, offering a glimmer of hope that the 3-year war could soon come to an end. The U.S. has held separate meetings with Russian and Ukrainian delegations in a bid to reach a lasting deal, but one particular OPEC member is finding itself in the crosshairs of the conflict despite the ongoing peace negotiations. A week ago, Kavkazskaya oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region, part of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), was damaged after drone attacks, with Russia pointing fingers at Ukraine. Back in February, Russia reported that CPC delivery capacity was cut by 40% after an attack by Ukrainian drones. According to the CPC, last year, Kavkazskaya delivered at least 130,000 tons of oil per month and 1.51 million tons for the whole year. The CPC pipeline is the main export route for Kazakhstan, and supplies ~1% of the world’s oil. CPC’s main shareholders include Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX), Shell Plc. (NYSE:SHEL) and Eni S.p.A. (NYSE:E). According to Kazakh journalist Oleg Chervinsky, the CPC was included in Trump’s ceasefire moratorium on strikes from both Russia and Ukraine, suggesting the latest drone attack violation of those terms. However, AP News has pointed to the ambiguity in the moratorium, with Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of non-compliance. Both sides agreed to a limited, 30-day ceasefire, with Russian President Vladimir Putin imposing conditions that essentially meant a Ukrainian surrender. “They sat for 12 hours and seemed to have agreed on a joint statement,” Russia’s deputy chairman of defense committee, Vladimir Chizhov, told Rossiya 24. “However this was not adopted due to Ukraine’s position,” he said. However, it appears that the blame is now on Russia, with Trump reportedly “very angry” with Russian President Vladimir Putin for attacking the credibility of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s credibility. Trump has even threatened to slap 50% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil. “You could say that I was very angry, pissed off, when… Putin started getting into Zelensky’s credibility, because that’s not going in the right location,” Trump said. “New leadership means you’re not gonna have a deal for a long time,” he added. That marks a 180-degree turnaround in Trump’s tone towards the two leaders, after last month he called Zelenskiy a “dictator” and claimed he “started” the war with Russia The continuing attacks on Kazakhstan’s energy infrastructure can have dire ramifications for the country. According to oil and gas analyst Olzhas Baidildinov, last year, the CPC distributed $1.3 billion in dividends in 2024, with approximately $85 million channeled into the state budget while KazMunayGas, Kazakhstan’s national oil company, received ~$250 million. The attacks come at a time when Kazakhstan has been ramping up oil production in a bid to cut its budget deficit. Last month, Kazakhstan’s crude oil and gas condensate–a type of light oil- output hit a record high of 2.12 million barrels per day, good for a large 13% increase from January volumes. Excluding gas condensate, the country’s production increased 15.5% m-o-m to 1.83 million bpd. Kazakhstan’s surge in output was chalked up to increased production at the giant Tengiz oilfield, operated by Tengizchevroil, led by Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX). The U.S. oil and gas giant has embarked on a $48 billion expansion of Tengiz. Previously, Reuters reported that Kazakhstan could dramatically reduce its more than 80% share of oil flows via Russia by sharply increasing crude oil exports out of Turkey’s port of Ceyhan. According to Kazakhstan Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev, the country could ramp up exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to 20 million metric tons a year from the current 1.5 million. However, it’s not clear how Kazakhstan intends to comply with OPEC+ quotas, with its current output significantly above its quota of 1.468 million bpd. Last year, Russia, Kazakhstan and Iraq submitted their compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat, with over-produced volumes expected to be fully compensated through September 2025. Kazakhstan is expected to ‘pay back’ a cumulative 620 kb/d, Russia 480 kb/d and Iraq 1,184 kb/d. Luckily, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that supply surpluses the market feared for much of last year have yet to materialize, with the outlook for Q2 and Q3 suggesting that no surplus is imminent. StanChart has forecast that global demand will exceed supply by 0.9 mb/d in Q2 and by 0.5 mb/d in Q3 while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) sees excess demand at 0.1 mb/d in Q2 and a balanced market in Q3.
Indian Refiners Seek Alternatives to Russian Crude After Trump Tariff Threat
Indian oil refiners have started looking for alternative supplies of crude after President Trump threatened secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports if Moscow refuses to sign a ceasefire deal for the Ukraine. Bloomberg reported that companies such as Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. were looking for oil cargoes from the Middle East, the North Sea, and the Mediterranean for May delivery in anticipation of tariff action. President Trump threatened a 25% tariff on all Russian oil, saying “If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” in an interview for NBC. “That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil,” Trump elaborated. The mechanism would be the same as the one Trump applied to Venezuela, slapping a 25% tariff on all imports from countries that continue buying crude from the South American nation. Such a tariff would be a considerable problem for India, whose dependence on imported crude hit an all-time high in the latest fiscal year. India imported 88.2% of the crude it consumed in the April 2024-February 2025 period, according to oil ministry data released at the end of last month. This is up from 87.7% for the previous fiscal year. Due to this dependence, India is particularly price-sensitive, which is why it stepped up its purchases of Russian oil following the barrage of Western sanctions directed at Russia’s energy industry. Russia is currently India’s biggest single oil supplier.
‘Pissed with Putin,’ Donald Trump threatens tariffs on Russian oil exports; India, China in crossfire
President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a second wave of sanctions on Russian oil exports, which could have profound implications for countries like India and China, which have grown reliant on Russian oil since the onset of the Ukraine war. Trump’s comments, made during a phone interview with NBC News, suggest that the US President would consider “secondary tariffs” on Russian oil and its buyers if a ceasefire with Ukraine can’t be reached “I was pissed off about it. But if a deal isn’t made, and if I think it was Russia’s fault, I’m going to put secondary sanctions on Russia,” Trump told NBC, saying he meant “all oil coming out of Russia.” He said he plans to speak to Putin this week. According to Bloomberg, the US President expressed his frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putinduring the call, particularly after the Russian leader suggested ways to install new leadership in Ukraine.
Regulator proposes tweak in pipeline tariffs; CNG and piped gas to be charged lowest rate
In a significant change to regulations, oil and gas regulator PNGRB has proposed a new policy of how tariffs for pipelines carrying gas to users will be determined, and proposed charging city gas entities selling CNG and piped cooking gas to households at the lowest rates. The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has floated a public consultation document for changing the zonal tariffs levied on pipelines that carry natural gas from fields producing it or from import ports, to users such as power plants that make electricity from it, or fertiliser units that manufacture urea from it, or city gas entities that turn it into CNG for sale to automobiles and pipe it to household kitchens for cooking purposes. “In yet another far-reaching reform for bringing investments and to increase the gas consumption especially in CNG and domestic piped natural gas (one used in household kitchens for cooking) in the country, PNGRB has brought a proposal for reducing the price of piped natural gas used by domestic consumers and in transport,” the regulator said. A public consultation document (PCD) has been webhosted for seeking comments from stakeholders on various aspects of tariff regulations like reducing the unified tariff zones to two from three, levying zone one unified tariff to all the CNG and piped natural gas (PNG)-domestic customers, it said.