StanChart Cuts 2025 Oil Price Forecast By $16/bbl Amid Trump’s Tariffs
Previously, we reported that commodity analysts at Standard Chartered were bullish on oil prices in the current year, thanks to strong oil fundamentals, including declining U.S. supply growth and OPEC+ supply discipline. StanChart reported that non-OPEC+ supply growth fell sharply from 2.46 mb/d in 2023 to 0.79 mb/d in 2024, in large part due to a reduction in U.S. total liquids growth, which fell from 1.605 mb/d in 2023 to 734 kb/d in 2024. StanChart predicted this trend will continue over the next two years, with U.S. liquids growth clocking in at just 367 kb/d in 2025 and 151 kb/d in 2026. In contrast, a December survey by Haynes Boone LLC revealed that Wall Street is largely bearish, predicting that oil prices will fall below $60 a barrel by the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s term. Well, it appears that the bears can now take their victory lap, with even perma-bulls like StanChart throwing in the towel. StanChart has conceded there’s little hope for oil bulls, and has cut its 2025 forecast by $16 per barrel (bbl) to $61/bbl and its 2026 forecast by $7/bbl to USD 78/bbl. StanChart contends that the Trump administration will have a hard time convincing the markets that its tariff-based policies are not recessionary, with gloom already spreading in the markets after Washington released a worrying economic report on Wednesday. The U.S. economy shrank -0.3% in the first quarter, marking the first contraction in three years as companies went on a buying spree of foreign goods before Trump’s 90-day pause on final tariffs comes to an end. Thankfully, financial markets avoided going into a meltdown after that report, with the U.S. labor markets remaining relatively healthy. The U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April, slightly lower than 185,000 added in March, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2%. StanChart is also pessimistic about the prospects of some OPEC+ members meeting their output commitments. To wit, the commodity analysts have noted that Kazakhstan has so far been unable to deliver any compensation as earlier agreed. Kazakhstan’s crude output has lately surged, hitting a record high of 2.12 million b/d in February, good for a large 13% increase from January volumes and well above the country’s OPEC+ quota of 1.468 million bpd. Saudi Arabia is mad at quota violators such as Kazakhstan and Iraq for repeatedly exceeding their set targets, and is ready to open the taps. Whereas the current Brent price is more than $30/bbl below the $96.20/bbl that Saudi Arabia requires to balance its books, OPEC’s largest producer has ample alternative funding options it can rely on to weather low oil prices, including issuing sovereign debt or tapping foreign exchange reserves. The experts have also pointed out that Saudi Arabia can take advantage of the low tariff rates on GCC nations by the Trump administration by becoming a regional manufacturing powerhouse. Trump slapped all six GCC nations with 10% tariffs. “As tariffs rise in certain countries, we are likely to see a growing shift of business to the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council], whether through nearshoring or friendshoring,” Adel Hamaizia, a Gulf expert at the Harvard Belfer Center Middle East Initiative, told Middle East Eye. “Saudi Arabia should be sending their trade representatives to the Trump administration right now, asking, ‘What was China providing you. Tell us what it is and we will make it in Saudi Arabia and provide a great trade deal’,” Ellen Wald, founder of the energy consulting firm, Transversal Consulting, told MEE. Manufacturing is a big part of MBS’ Vision 2030. Unlike Europe, Saudi Arabia has ready access to lots of cheap energy, minimal regulations and plenty of open spaces. Further, Saudi Arabia has laid out plans to accelerate its $2.5 trillion mining programs in a bid to diversify its economy and lower its reliance on oil. Mining will play a key role in Riyadh’s strategy to reduce oil dependency, with Saudi Arabia looking to exploit its significant reserves of copper, bauxite, phosphate and gold. Last year, the country’s mining minister, Bandar Al-Khorayef, announced that the Kingdom’s reserve potential had grown to $2.5 trillion, a big 90% jump from the $1.3 trillion forecasted eight years ago. Saudi Arabia has a goal for the mining sector to contribute $75 billion to the country’s economy by 2035, up rom $17 billion currently.
Indian Refiner BPCL Looks to Source Cheaper U.S. LPG in Swap Deal
Indian state-held refiner and fuel retailer Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) is in discussions with suppliers to swap a Middle East cargo with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) with cheaper supply from the United States, the refiner’s head of finance, Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta, said on Friday. “We are approaching suppliers. We see little bit of opportunity in terms of U.S. LPG. We are expecting a net benefit of $20 to $30 per ton,” Reuters quoted Gupta as telling analysts today. The U.S.-China trade war has widened the discount of U.S. LPG to Middle Eastern supply as trade routes to Asia have been upended. Currently, India receives over 80% of its LPG supply via annual contracts with Middle Eastern exporters including top OPEC producers Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, as well as Qatar. Increased supply of U.S. petroleum and other energy products to India could dovetail with the Indian government’s goal of boosting energy imports from the United States pending tariff and trade talks. India is ramping up purchases and imports of crude oil from the United States ahead of crucial talks on the U.S. tariffs this month. As many as 11.2 million barrels of U.S. crude are on route to arrive in India in June, per data from analytics firm Kpler cited by Bloomberg. This would be the highest U.S. crude volume arriving in India since August 2024. India’s state-owned refining giants are leading the higher purchases of U.S. crude, as India hopes to have tariffs lowered if it buys more American energy products. State Indian refiners, including BPCL and Indian Oil Corporation, have bought at tenders this month at least 6 million barrels of crude from the U.S. due to arrive in India in June, Bloomberg calculations showed. Most Asian countries are racing to pledge increased imports of U.S. energy to avoid the high tariffs slapped on them in early April. Delegations from many Asian countries are heading to Washington D.C. these days to discuss the U.S. tariffs, which are the highest for economies in Asia and Southeast Asia.
BPCL refineries utilise 115 pc capacity at record 40.5 mn tonnes in FY25: Hardeep Puri
Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Hardeep Singh Puri, on Friday lauded the performance of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), as the government-owned oil major has achieved its highest-ever refinery throughput of 40.5 million metric tonnes with 115 per cent capacity utilisation and made a net profit of Rs 132.75 billion for 2024-25. The minister held a meeting with BPCL chairman and managing director Sanjay Khanna to review the performance of the Maharatna oil PSU. Khanna holds the additional charge as CMD of the company. “During 2024-25, the company has achieved highest ever market sales of 52.4 MMT beating earlier record of 51.0 MMT, highest ever refinery throughput 40.5 MMT with 115 per cent capacity utilisation, Highest capex of Rs 170 billion, outstanding gross refining margin 6.82 $/bbl and Rs 132.75 billion profit after tax,” the minister posted on X. He further stated that BPCL has commissioned a 5 MW GH2 at Bina refinery in just 15 months, setting a benchmark for rapid and cost-effective execution. This initiative forms a core part of BPCL’s strategy to achieve Net Zero for Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 2040 to contribute towards India’s green energy transition.
Trump & Tariffs: India’s crude oil purchases from the US to surge in April-June
India and the US deliberate on the fine print of a bilateral trade deal, the world’s third largest crude oil importer is expected to buy more than 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) from the US during April-June 2025—a record high. This is in line with India’s stated position to enhance annual energy imports from the US to $25 billion from $15 billion currently. Both crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchases from the US are already at a record high in 2024 calendar year (CY). According to global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler, India’s crude oil imports from the US rose 17 per cent m-o-m and 68 per cent y-o-y to roughly 337 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) last month—an eight-month high—provisionally. April is the third consecutive month with in-bound shipments clocking higher volumes. As per Kpler data, India is likely to import around 1,007 kb/d of crude oil from the US during April to June this CY, which is higher by 29 per cent y-o-y and more than double the imports during Q2 2023. The US EIA data also points to a similar dynamic. India imported around 942 kb/d during April-June 2024, which is 43 per cent higher than Q2 2023 and 35 per cent higher than Q2 2022. Imports during Q2 2024 are the highest on record, barring the Covid-impacted Q2 2021 when cargoes touched 1,355 kb/d as prices hit rock bottom. Trade & Geopolitics Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, told businessline: “US crude imports by Indian refiners—particularly public sector entities—are shaped by a mix of geopolitical considerations and trade diversification efforts. While diplomatic balancing may justify one or two cargoes, refinery economics ultimately drive sustained buying. Currently, discounted WTI prices are being used to stimulate Asian demand amid weakening Chinese appetite.” US EIA in its December 2024 Short Term Energy Outlook, said that India emerged as the leading source of growth in global oil consumption in 2024 and 2025, overtaking China this year. This is important considering China’s oil consumption outpaced India’s almost every year from 1998 through 2023. Ritolia explained that the exemption on crude oil and natural gas from tariffs, offers a strategic avenue to increase US energy imports without incurring additional tariff costs. “Data indicates a significant uptick in US crude oil imports by India. In April 2025, imports reached around 337 kb/d. State-run refiners, including Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum, have been at the forefront of this increase, accounting for over 70 per cent of the imports. This shift underscores a strategic pivot towards US energy sources, aligning with broader trade objectives,” he said. Crude from the US offers a viable option, providing high-quality, light-sweet grades that are well-suited for India’s refining capacities. “Additionally, increased US imports help mitigate over-reliance on Middle Eastern suppliers, enhancing energy security. Also, Nigeria and Angola may see their volumes to India fall as US supply gains ground. Strategic preference for light sweet grades amid reduced arbitrage from West Africa,” he added.
Indian refiners target cheaper US LPG imports with help from China tariffs
Chinese import tariffs have unwittingly come to India’s assistance to help boost imports of US liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at rates cheaper than what it pays for supplies from West Asia, according to industry sources and shipping data. After stepping up crude imports and tying up US liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, Indian state-run oil companies are evaluating options for LPG imports from the US in July, directly under term contract arrangements — when they begin talks to secure shipments of the cooking fuel for 2026, top refining sources told Business Standard. Talks are also on to secure cheap US LPG in the immediate term in exchange for contracted West Asian supplies. India is a $12 billion LPG market, equivalent to a third of its trade surplus with the US for 2024. India’s LPG market is dominated by supplies from United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. The advent of US LPG will enhance India’s security of supply for a sensitive fuel, used in kitchens across the nation, an official said. India imported around 20.8 million tonnes of LPG, around 66 per cent of its needs, in 2024-25, according to oil ministry data. The US share was negligible. “Cheap US LPG is flooding the market,” an official from a state refiner said, adding that with the right discounts US suppliers could capture a large portion of the Indian LPG market, just as discounted Russian oil gobbled up 40 per cent of India’s crude oil import business after the war in Ukraine and accompanying sanctions, the official said. It depends on how long the Chinese import tariffs last, another official said. The availability of US LPG was driven by the steep 145 per cent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration last month on most Chinese imports, leading to China retaliating with a 125 per cent charge on US purchases.
OPEC Moves Up Meeting To Discuss Oil Production Quotas
The OPEC+ members currently participating in voluntary production cuts will meet this Saturday, May 3, instead of Monday, May 5, according to Kpler’s Amena Bakr on X. The call is set for noon Vienna time, with the agenda focused on “consensus building around maintaining the sped-up increment of 411K for June.” Brent crude had slipped nearly 1% by late Friday morning, trading at $61.56. It’s a price level not seen since early 2021—and one that puts most OPEC+ budgets underwater. For producers already grappling with restricted output, prices below $65 are a growing fiscal headache. The accelerated meeting follows mounting tensions within the group. Reports suggest Saudi Arabia is signaling it can live with lower prices—a not-so-subtle message to chronic overproducers like Iraq and Kazakhstan. The 411,000 bpd production increase originally floated as a wake-up call may now be cemented into policy, signaling a strategic shift in Riyadh’s approach. OPEC+ has pledged to offset 4.57 million bpd of overproduction by mid-2026. But enforcement remains patchy. Saturday’s call will test whether Riyadh and Moscow can still steer the ship—or whether quota politics are about to devolve into a full-blown battle for market share. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg survey released Thursday showed that OPEC’s actual output fell by 200,000 bpd in April, down to 27.24 million—contradicting the group’s planned increase. Market pessimism is already pricing in a production hike. But April’s figures are a reminder: announced increases don’t always materialize. Whether Saudi Arabia will keep absorbing the blow while others cheat—or start using price as a weapon to enforce discipline—won’t be decided in a Vienna video call. It’ll be decided at the wellhead.
LNG’s Next Big Threat Isn’t Demand—It’s U.S. Policy
Winter is over in the northern hemisphere, and demand for heating is in decline, to the likely chagrin of LNG exporters. Demand for the fuel in the key Asian and European markets has weakened this month as peak demand season eases—but the weakening is temporary. Europe imported a record 7.04 million tons of liquefied natural gas from its top supplier, the United States, last month, but this has dropped to 5.88 million tons this month, data from Kpler, cited by Reuters’ Clyde Russell has shown. This is still significantly higher than the EU’s average monthly imports of U.S. LNG for last year. Those stood at 3.76 million tons, meaning the 2025 average so far represents a hefty increase that President Trump might like. After all, U.S. LNG has come to account for 55% of Europe’s total LNG imports since the start of 2025. Europe has managed to reduce its overall gas imports over the first quarter through demand destruction, a climate think tank said in a new report earlier today. Per the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, total imports of gas, both pipeline and LNG, were at the same level as last year over the first three months of 2025. The makeup of these imports still featured a sizable contribution of Russian gas to the total import mix despite attempts by the EU to give up all Russian hydrocarbons. In Asia, meanwhile, China already made the news by suspending any and all LNG imports from the United States, which has had to look for other buyers in its second-biggest market after Europe. Fortunately for all involved, Asian countries are all big buyers of liquefied gas. Japan and South Korea are already major buyers of American liquefied gas and India may well join them as top buyer as it seeks to reduce and hopefully eliminate its trade surplus with the U.S. per President Trump’s plans. Indeed, Trump’s trade policies seem like a major tailwind for LNG demand on a global scale. But there may be a problem—stemming from other Trump policies. The warning came from the LNG industry earlier this month and concerned the introduction of restrictions on Chinese-built ships calling at U.S. ports in the form of port fees. Announced by Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the rules aimed to boost American shipbuilding but it stressed LNG exporters who currently have no alternative to Chinese-built tankers. “There are currently no US-built vessels capable of shipping LNG and no surplus capacity at US shipyards to build LNG carriers by the deadline of 2029,” the Financial Times reported, citing unnamed industry sources. This is problematic for exporters even with the federal government’s provision for a gradual phase-in of locally manufactured carriers. The Baltic and International Maritime Council, one of the largest shipping industry associations globally, also warned against the restrictions. In a letter, PIMCO said that “Charging fees on ships calling at US ports due to Chinese origin of the calling ships, Chinese domestication of the operator, the operator’s fleet’s percentage of Chinese origin ships and the operator’s order book’s percentage of Chinese contracts, will significantly increase the cost of seaborne transport to and from the United States of America – even if operators are pursuing avoidance strategies.” The situation with vessel availability is particularly tight in LNG due to the relatively fast surge in demand for the fuel, which shipbuilders are currently trying to catch up, which will take years. Demand for LNG tankers surged by 25% last year, industry data showed in January, with the bulk of the new orders going to South Korean and Chinese shipbuilders. Korean companies were in the lead, with 68 orders, and Chinese shipbuilders trailed them with 41 orders. Over the long term, then, U.S.LNG exporters could use South Korea-built vessels, but they need to ship their gas in the short term as well and this might become a problem unless the new port fee rule is tweaked to ensure the continued flow of U.S. LNG abroad. That’s an immediate concern because the current lull in shipments is a temporary occurrence. Soon enough, Europe will need to start refilling its storage caverns. With its plans to give up Russian gas entirely, it will need to step up U.S.LNG imports further, apparently regardless of cost, which will inevitably rise with the jump in demand. The good news for Europe—this time the price rise may be a little smaller thanks to the tariff war and China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. energy that saw it cut all imports of American liquefied gas. The bad news is that with every U.S. trade partner seeking more LNG imports to reduce its surplus with the world’s biggest market, the price can and likely will change soon enough and not in a favorable direction for the Europeans. For U.S. LNG exporters, however, it’s smooth sailing ahead—just as soon as the Trump administration takes care of that port fee problem.
Venezuela Desperate For China To Buy More Oil
Venezuela’s oil lifeline is unraveling—and it’s not just because of collapsing infrastructure or chronic mismanagement. It’s geopolitics, sanctions, and desperation, all swirling around Caracas as the U.S. slams the door shut. Last week, Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez showed up in Beijing with an urgent ask: Buy more oil. Fast. With President Trump booting Chevron and other foreign firms out of the country by May 27 and slapping 25% tariffs on anyone who dares to buy Venezuelan crude, Caracas is scrambling to secure its only remaining oil customer: China. But Beijing isn’t exactly offering a warm embrace. Chinese officials reportedly want even steeper discounts on Venezuelan barrels and are renegotiating contracts—because when you’re the only buyer left, why not squeeze? Meanwhile, the export picture is already deteriorating. Shipments dropped nearly 20% in April as PDVSA canceled Chevron’s cargo loadings early. “Zombie ships”—tankers disguised as legitimate vessels—are now sailing from Venezuela’s coast, trying to hide from global tracking systems. You don’t do that unless you’re desperate. China, Venezuela’s largest creditor by far, is still collecting loan repayments from Venezuela in oil. But even that stream is thinning. Production at Sinovensa—once the crown jewel joint venture between CNPC and PDVSA—has dropped to 103,000 bpd, down from 160,000 in 2015. Now Trump’s team is openly threatening “consequences” for any nation that continues buying Venezuelan crude, signaling secondary sanctions could hit China next. For an economy already teetering, the loss of its only significant oil customer could be catastrophic. Venezuela’s central bank reserves are drying up, the bolívar is collapsing again, and inflation is knocking. Rodríguez called her China tour “confidential” and “extremely happy.” Some instead call it a Hail Mary.
Qatar and Japan Discuss Major LNG Supply Deal
QatarEnergy is in talks with Japanese energy companies over a long-term supply deal for liquefied natural gas from the expanded North Field. According to an exclusive Reuters report that cited unnamed sources, the volume under discussion is a minimum of 3 million tons annually, to be split between several Japanese companies, which include heavyweights JERA and Mitsui & Co. Qatar is already the largest supplier of LNG to resource-scarce Japan. The deal, over the Reuters sources, would strengthen the Gulf state’s dominant position on the Japanese market at a time of intensifying competition between LNG producers. Qatar is investing billions in the expansion of its section of the world’s largest natural gas field. Plans were initially to boost LNG production twofold by 2030, from under 80 million tons annually. Then, last year, Qatar decided to go further and boost LNG capacity by as much as 85% by 2030. That would be equal to a total of 142 million tons of liquefied gas annually. Meanwhile, QatarEnergy is securing long-term demand for all that LNG. Last year, it signed a supply deal with Kuwait for another 3 million tons of LNG annually over a period of 15 years. Iraq is a potential buyer. But it is Asia that is the key market for LNG suppliers—except for the U.S., which ships LNG to Europe. And within Asia, Japan is a much sought after buyer because of its almost complete dependence on imports of energy. Last year, Japan’s total LNG imports reached 65.89 million tons. “Asia-Oceania currently accounts for more than half of our procurement sources. For supply stability, expanding options to regions like North America and the Middle East would be beneficial,” the head of JERA’s financial strategy and planning division said at a recent earnings call, as quoted by Reuters.
Bharat Petroleum eyes $20-30/ton gain from swap of Middle East LPG with cheaper US supplies
Indian fuel retailer Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd expects a net gain of $20 to $30 a metric ton on delivery of U.S. liquefied petroleum gas through swap deal with Middle Eastern suppliers, its head of finance said on Friday. BPCL, India’s second-biggest state refiner, is in talks with suppliers to swap contracted Middle Eastern cargo with U.S. supplies, Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta told analysts. A U.S.-China tariff war has widened the price gap between Middle Eastern and U.S. LPG and upended trade routes. China has imposed duties on goods from the U.S. in response to tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports from China. “We are approaching suppliers. We see little bit of opportunity in terms of U.S. LPG. We are expecting a net benefit of $20 to $30 per ton,” Gupta said. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co is also replacing some of the LPG it supplies India with cheaper U.S. cargo from June, Reuters reported. Cheaper U.S. LPG will help BPCL offset some of the 6.5 billion to 7 billion rupees ($77 million to $83 million) monthly revenue loss it suffers on the local sale of the cooking fuel at below market rates. Gupta said he hopes the federal government will introduce a quarterly compensate scheme for refiners that incur a revenue loss on LPG sales. India sources more than 80% of its LPG from the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait, under annual contracts. Gupta also said BPCL sees the share of Russian oil in crude processing at its three refineries rising to about 30% to 32% from 24% in January-March when U.S. sanctions disrupted supplies. He said BPCL is buying Russian crude at a discount of about $3 a barrel to Dubai benchmark. BPCL is looking to build a refinery of either 180,000 barrels per day or 240,000 bpd in southern Andhra Pradesh state within four years of a final investment decision, which Gupta said he expects by the end of 2025.