U.S. Energy Secretary Says Venezuela Could See Surge in Oil Output
Venezuela’s crude oil production could increase dramatically as soon as this year, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said during his visit in the South American country. “This year, we can drive a dramatic increase in Venezuelan oil production, in Venezuelan natural gas production and Venezuelan electricity production,” Wright said, as quoted by Reuters, following a meeting with interim president Delcy Rodriguez. Currently, Venezuela produces around 1 million barrels of oil daily and has been having chronic problems with electricity supply. Higher oil, gas, and electricity production should lead to more job creation, higher wages, and better quality of life for Venezuelans, the U.S. Energy Secretary also said. Wright also addressed the oil business of Chinese companies in Venezuela, saying if that business was legitimate, the United States was fine with it but Washington would seek to avoid “damaging” deals between Chinese companies and Venezuela. “China does a lot of deals in countries where they are not mutually beneficial, Wright said. “They have been quite damaging to nations in South America, Africa and around the world. So I think with U.S. help and with U.S. partnership we want to stop those kind of deals.” Commenting on a recent change in Venezuela’s oil law, Wright said that it was “a meaningful step in the right direction”, as quoted by AP, but “probably not far and clear enough to encourage the kind of large capital flows.” Per the new law, private companies “will assume full management of the activities at its own expense, account, and risk, after demonstrating its financial and technical capacity through a business plan” that will be subject to approval by the Venezuelan oil ministry. The ownership of the resources to be developed by private companies, however, will remain with the Venezuelan state. The new law also caps royalty rates at 30% but allows the government to set individual royalty rates for projects based on factors such as investment needs and competitiveness.
Europe Gets Rare LNG Cargo from China Amid Gas Crunch
A tanker carrying liquefied gas is sailing to Europe from China in a rare move that was last made four years ago. The Seapeak Glasgow loaded the liquefied gas at the Zhejiang Ningbo terminal, Bloomberg reported, citing tanker-tracking data, and is signaling Europe as its next destination. European LNG imports are running at record highs amid a seasonal peak in demand. Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that U.S. and Russian liquefied gas together accounted for over 80% of Europe’s seaborne gas imports. The U.S. share of that was 55% and Russian LNG accounted for mover 25%. That latter LNG will disappear from next year as the EU approved a complete ban on Russian gas imports earlier this year. As things stand now, the European Union is the largest buyer of Russian liquefied gas, absorbing half of the country’s total LNG output. Despite record LNG imports, European countries are digging deeper into their gas storage, with EU-wide levels at just 35.62% full as of February 10th. In France, the level of gas in storage was even lower, at 26.09%, and in Germany it was 25.60%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. China, meanwhile, has been filling its own gas storage, with demand for LNG weakening throughout 25, except the final two months of the year when seasonal demand caused a spike in imports. Thanks to ample supply, China is in a position to resell LNG, including to a destination as distant as Europe. Europe is expected to import a record-high volume of liquefied natural gas this year as stronger demand for replenishing storage sites, the phase-out of Russian supply, and continued pipeline exports to Ukraine will drive increased demand, the International Energy Agency said earlier this year. Meanwhile, two gas storage sites in Germany are about to be shut down, as their operators told the German government they are no longer profitable.
Russia to Send Oil to Crisis-Stricken Cuba
Russia plans to send soon oil and oil products to Cuba as part of humanitarian aid, the Russian embassy in Cuba told Russian media on Thursday. Cuba’s worsening economic and humanitarian situation has gone from bad to worse in recent weeks as the U.S., which now controls Venezuela’s oil sales, is banning shipments to Cuba. U.S. President Donald Trump in late January signed an Executive Order declaring a national emergency and establishing a process to impose tariffs on goods from countries that sell or otherwise provide oil to Cuba. This is to protect U.S. national security and foreign policy from the Cuban regime’s malign actions and policies, according to the Executive Order. The Executive Order “imposes a new tariff system that allows the United States to impose additional tariffs on imports from any country that directly or indirectly provides oil to Cuba.” Russia is unfazed and doesn’t want to cut ties with Cuba, a friendly country according to Moscow’s classification. Venezuela was also among these, until U.S. forces captured Nicolas Maduro in early January and took control over the country’s oil sales. “In the near future, it is planned to deliver oil and oil products to Cuba as humanitarian aid,” the Russian embassy in Cuba told Russia’s daily Izvestia. At the same time, the Russian ministry of economic development has recommended that Russians refrain from traveling to Cuba amid the “fuel emergency” in the Caribbean country. Earlier this week, Canadian airlines suspended flights to Cuba as the island nation faces depletion in jet fuel stocks amid the U.S. energy squeeze aimed at prompting regime change. Cuba did not receive any oil imports from anywhere in January, Bloomberg has reported citing Kpler data. Cuba’s biggest oil suppliers have traditionally been Venezuela and Mexico, with Venezuela the biggest, but after the effective U.S. takeover of Venezuela’s oil industry those supplies dried up. Now, after Trump put pressure on Mexico to stop shipping fuel to the heavily sanctioned island, Cuba has no immediate alternatives although Russia has signaled it planned to continue supplying fuel there.
India’s petroleum and liquid fuel consumption to hit 5.92 mbpd in 2026 compared to 5.66 mbpd last year
The US Energy Information Administration of EIA has stated in a latest monthly update that it expects India will increase its liquid fuels consumption by around 0.3 million b/d in next two years. It sees India’s consumption at 5.92 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2026 and at 6.26 mbpd in 2027. This shows an impressive rise compared to 5.66 mbpd in 2025. Indias liquid fuel output is seen at 1.01 mbpd in 2025 and is expected to rise to 1.06 mbpd this year and to 1.09 mbpd next year.
Saudi Arabia’s Aramco Begins Production At $100B Jafurah Gas Project
Saudi Aramco has begun production of light oil (condensate) from its $100 billion Jafurah unconventional gas project, after the company completed Phase 1 construction of the 450-MMcf/D-capacity gas plant. This marks the first export of liquids from the massive field, which is primarily designed to produce natural gas. Initial cargoes were sold to Asian buyers for delivery in late February or early March 2026. Aramco will initially sell 4 to 6 cargoes per month, with each cargo consisting of approximately 500,000 barrels. Condensate is a high-value, light oil produced alongside natural gas. Aramco is expected to ramp up production at Jafurah to 2 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas by 2030. The Jafurah unconventional gas project is the largest liquid-rich shale gas play in the Middle East, holding 229 trillion scf of raw gas and 75 billion STB of condensate. The project is a key element of Saudi Arabia’s growth strategy, aimed at meeting rapidly growing domestic energy demand, shifting away from burning oil for electricity and driving industrial growth. By reducing domestic crude consumption for power, the Kingdom intends to free up this oil for export. The project also supports Saudi Arabia’s net-zero 2060 targets by replacing more carbon-intensive fuels with natural gas. The giant project involves advanced hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, with a total investment value estimated to reach over $100 billion. In August 2025, a consortium led by BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) signed a 20-year, $11 billion lease-and-lease-back deal with Aramco for the Jafurah gas field. Jafurah Midstream Gas Company (JMGC), newly established subsidiary, will hold the rights, with 51% owned by Aramco and 49% by the GIP-led consortium, which includes Hassana Investment Company and The Arab Energy Fund. The deal also aligns with Aramco’s objective to increase overall gas production capacity by 60% by 2030. The Jafurah project also supports the country’s Vision 2030’s goal to shift away from oil dependency. The project is expected to contribute $20 billion annually to the Kingdom’s GDP and create significant local job opportunities.
Sanctions hit India’s leading petroleum company Nayara Energy faces fresh risks as India-US deal may tighten curbs on Russian oil
Roseneft-backed Nayara Energy remains highly exposed if the India-US deal translates into stricter enforcement of tariffs or penalties for buying Russian oil as the refinery has limited diversification options available amid existing EU sanctions. The company which has ramped up its crude processing to nearly 90-100 percent of capacity as of October 2025 against only 70-80 percent of capacity utilisation after the EU sanctioned the 20-million tonne refinery denting its exports to European Union countries in July last year, once again finds itself in a distinct position. Analysts note that the refinery was running at 104 percent of capacity before the EU sanctions. “The refinery is already subject to EU and UK sanctions, which significantly restrict its access to non-sanctioned and ‘clean’ crude barrels, as well as related shipping, insurance, and financing services. As a result, Russian crude remains the most viable, and in many cases the only consistently accessible feedstock, that allows the refinery to operate at economic run rates,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modeling at Kpler. As part of its measures against Moscow, the EU has imposed sanctions on Nayara’s Vadinar refinery, owned by Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy and tightened the oil price cap. Post these sanctions, Nayara cannot export fuel such as petrol and diesel to European countries. Last year, the US also sanctioned major Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil. Given these constraints, Nayara is likely to continue processing Russian barrels as a complete halt would materially impair refinery operations unless sanctions relief or alternative commercial channels emerge, Ritolia said. The sanctions have impacted Nayara’s exports while leading Middle East suppliers including Saudi Arabia and Iraq have stopped their crude sale to the company.
India’s petroleum and liquid fuel consumption to hit 5.92 mbpd in 2026 compared to 5.66 mbpd last year
The US Energy Information Administration of EIA has stated in a latest monthly update that it expects India will increase its liquid fuels consumption by around 0.3 million b/d in next two years. It sees India’s consumption at 5.92 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2026 and at 6.26 mbpd in 2027. This shows an impressive rise compared to 5.66 mbpd in 2025. Indias liquid fuel output is seen at 1.01 mbpd in 2025 and is expected to rise to 1.06 mbpd this year and to 1.09 mbpd next year.
Oil Prices Rise as U.S.-Iran Tensions Simmer
Oil prices rose by 1% early on Wednesday as the U.S.-Iran tensions continue to rise and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump. In morning trade in Europe on Wednesday, the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was up by 1.39% to $64.85 per barrel. The front-month futures traded at $64.85. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, traded very close to the $70 per barrel mark, as it was up 1.29% on the day to $69.69. This week, the U.S.-Iran tensions and negotiations have been in the spotlight, with the oil market assessing the chances of a deal. Israel’s Netanyahu said before departing for Washington, D.C., “I will present to the president our outlook regarding the principles of these negotiations.” Israel is expected to ask President Trump to seek a deal that would put an end to Iranian uranium enrichment, and limit its support for Hamas and Hezbollah. “The Prime Minister believes that any negotiations must include limiting ballistic missiles and ending support for the Iranian axis,” Netanyahu’s office said ahead of his trip to the U.S. President Trump has warned the U.S. could send a second aircraft carrier to the region if the talks fail. The ongoing tensions have supported oil prices this week, although they wobbled in Tuesday trade after the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States increased by a whopping 13.4 million barrels in the week ending February 6. The estimated increased more than offset the prior week’s draw of 11.1 million barrels. Reports that the U.S. was considering seizing sanctioned tankers carrying Iranian oil have also pushed prices higher. But such an action with Iran “would be escalatory and would likely see the market needing to price in an even larger risk premium than it already is, given the potential for Iranian retaliation,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a Wednesday note.
China’s Clean Energy Boom Still Rests on Coal, Oil, and Gas
Over the past decade, China’s renewable energy and related clean technologies have emerged as the fastest-growing sectors of the economy, significantly outpacing the overall economy. Last year, China’s clean energy investments hit a record 7.2 trillion yuan ($1 trillion), with the sector accounting for over 11% of GDP and growing three times faster than the overall economy. Indeed, China’s “new three” namely solar, batteries, and electric vehicles contributed over 90% of the rise in the country’s overall investments. China continues to be particularly dominant in solar and wind energy technologies, with the nation installing 315 GW of solar and 119 GW of wind, exceeding the rest of the world combined. Still, fossil fuels remain critical to China’s energy security and industrial base, providing over 80% of primary energy and over 60% of electricity production. Coal is the ornerstone of China’s energy sector, providing over 50% of electricity generation and roughly 60-70% of total primary energy consumption. China consumes over 4 billion tons of coal annually, accounting for more than 50% of the entire world’s coal consumption. In 2023, data indicated that China’s coal consumption continued to rise, with imports reaching a record 474 million tons. This makes China the world’s largest coal consumer and importer. Despite massive investments in renewables, coal continues to play an outsized role in fueling the economy, ensuring energy security and powers industrial sectors like steel, with new coal-fired power projects continuing to be built at a rapid clip. Construction of new coal-powered plants hit a 10-year high in 2024, with the country initiating development of 94.5 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-power capacity and also resumed building of 3.3 GW that was previously suspended. The heavy reliance on coal has led to significant air pollution and carbon emissions, despite China’s President Xi Jinping pledging to “strictly control” coal expansion and “phase down” consumption. And oil, too, remains critical to China’s energy security and industrial growth, representing roughly one-fifth of its energy mix and powering transport and petrochemical sectors. China consumes approximately 16.3 to 16.4 million barrels per day (b/d) of oil, making it the world’s second-largest consumer. As of 2024, the country imported roughly 11.1 million b/d of crude oil to meet this demand, representing about 74% of its consumption. Projections for 2025 suggest total oil demand averaged around 16.74 million b/d. Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq are China’s key suppliers of crude, with imports from Russia exceeding 2 million barrels per day (bpd), representing roughly 20% or more of China’s total imports. Around 900,000 bpd of Russian oil is delivered via pipeline, with the rest coming by sea, often using a “shadow fleet” to bypass Western sanctions. Not surprisingly, China is also aggressively expanding domestic oil production, with output reaching a record high of 4.3 million b/d in 2025 from 3.8 million b/d in 2020, thanks to intensified exploration, particularly in offshore and unconventional reserves. Offshore oil production is a major driver of China’s domestic oil production, accounting for over 60% of new output for five consecutive years in large part due to increased investment by state-owned companies, including CNOOC, CNPC, Sinopec. The push is part of the 2019-2025 “Seven-Year Action Plan” which focused on increasing upstream, domestic production to ensure energy security, even with the parallel push for green energy and electric vehicles. However, the high cost of extracting from mature fields means domestic output cannot keep pace with demand, leaving a large gap that must be filled by imports. Meanwhile, natural gas acts as a critical “bridge fuel” in China’s energy transition, helping to reduce reliance on coal, improve air quality and balance intermittent renewable energy. As the world’s third-largest consumer of natural gas, China is growing its natural gas usage for industrial, residential, and power generation, with projections indicating that gas will play a major role in achieving carbon neutrality. China’s natural gas consumption hit ~428 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2024, marking a steady increase from 330 bcm in 2020. China relies on a mix of domestic production and imports, with demand driven largely by the industrial and city-gas sector. China’s imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports are projected to rebound in the current year, with projections of up to a 10% Y/Y increase to nearly 76 million metric tons, following a ~10% decline in 2025 due to high domestic production and weaker demand. China is the world’s largest importer of LNG, with Australia, Qatar, and Russia supplying the bulk of imports. China also imports large amounts of gas via pipeline, primarily from Russia and Turkmenistan via the Power of Siberia (Russia) and the Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline. That said, China is poised to maintain its dominance in the global clean energy sector not only due to heavy investments and technological leadership but also due to its rare earths hegemony. China maintains a commanding, near-monopolistic hold on the global rare earth elements (REEs) supply chain, controlling approximately 60-70% of mining and over 90% of processing and refining. Neodymium and dysprosium are essential for high-strength permanent magnets in electric motors, significantly increasing power density and efficiency. Permanent magnets (using neodymium, dysprosium, and praseodymium) are used in wind turbines to improve performance, particularly for offshore, direct-drive turbines that require no gearbox. While not used directly in PV modules, REEs like yttrium, lanthanum, and cerium are used in specialized solar inverters, sensors and converter components.
India’s petroleum reserves can last 74 days in case of global turbulence: Oil Minister Puri
India’s strategic petroleum reserve can last 74 days to meet the demand arising out of any global turbulence, Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri informed the Rajya Sabha on Monday. Replying to supplementaries during Question Hour, the minister said for any country like India, which is growing at a phenomenal pace, there must be a very viable and secure reserve, so that it is not in a vulnerable situation in the case of global turbulence. He said India has several refineries both in the West coast as well as the East. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), today we are the world’s third largest consumer of crude oil. We have the world’s fourth largest refining capacity – currently around 260 million metric tonne per annum going on to 320 million metric tonne per annum. And, we are also the world’s fifth largest exporter of petroleum products.