India can increase imports of shale gas, LNG, crude from US: Official
India’s exports to the US are rising, and it can increase imports of products like shale gas, LNG, and crude oil from America to diversify its import basket, as prices of these items are lower in the US, an official said. Teams of both countries will start next round of talks this week here on the proposed bilateral trade agreement. Though India is looking for a balanced and a mutually beneficial trade agreement with the US, “what we get as compared to other countries, will determine what we ultimately finalise in the deal,” the official said. Asked if some kind of interim trade deal can be agreed upon before July 9, the official said a lot of uncertainties are there at present because of developments like the Trump administration’s plan to further increase tariffs on steel and a stay on a court order against the US authorities’ decisions on tariffs. But within the constraints of uncertainties, India has to find pathways which are good for the country, the official said. “Exports are increasing… there are several things we can buy from the US… For example shale gas, LNG, crude oil. The more diversified our sources, the greater the benefit for us. Prices are also low in the US,” the official, who did not wish to be named, said. The official added that the US is a major trading partner of India, with a significant trade surplus in India’s favour. Moreover, a large number of jobs are linked to exports to the US. India has already reserved its right to impose retaliatory tariffs against US duties on steel and aluminium. It has also sought consultations under the WTO norms on US tariffs on auto components. Asked if India is considering to take similar measures in more products, the official said India will protect its interests. “We will see what is good for India… accordingly we will take decisions,” the official said, adding, “Today lot of uncertainties are there… because of that court order… we will discuss how to address these issues… lot of uncertainties are there”. In February, US President Donald J Trump and Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi announced plans to negotiate the first tranche or phase of a mutually beneficial, multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by fall (September-October) of 2025. It is aimed at more than doubling the bilateral trade to USD 500 billion by 2030 from the current level of USD 191 billion. The US remained India’s largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25, with bilateral trade valued at USD 131.84 billion. The US accounts for about 18 per cent of India’s total goods exports, 6.22 per cent in imports, and 10.73 per cent in the country’s total merchandise trade.
‘500% tariffs…’: US senator targets Russia’s oil trade partners; India also in crosshairs
Standing on Ukrainian soil, US Senator Richard Blumenthal called for a bold economic offensive against Russia — a 500% tariff on any nation that continues buying Russian oil, gasoline, or petrochemicals. The proposal, revealed during a press conference in Kyiv, aims to choke the Kremlin’s war chest and ratchet up pressure on global buyers like China and India It marks a sharp escalation in Washington’s legislative efforts to curb Moscow’s aggression, coming on the heels of a bipartisan sanctions bill introduced in April with Senator Lindsey Graham. The bill spearheaded by Senator Richard Blumenthal would impose 500% tariffs on all countries purchasing Russian oil, gasoline, or petrochemicals. “That means 500% tariffs on India and on China — which buys 70% of these goods — and on anyone else who continues these purchases,” Blumenthal said. These penalties would come into force if Russia refuses to enter good-faith peace talks with Ukraine or acts again to compromise Ukraine’s sovereignty post any agreement. The sweeping sanctions would also extend to imports from countries that continue buying Russian gas, uranium, and other critical commodities. The Senate could begin considering the bill as early as next week. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump stated the US is “very close to making a deal with India.” He also confirmed that representatives from Pakistan are scheduled to visit Washington next week. “Pakistan representatives are coming in next week. We’re very close to making a deal with India,” Trump said at Joint Base Andrews. Still, he cautioned that tensions between India and Pakistan could upend any potential agreement. “And I wouldn’t have any interest in making a deal with either if they were going to be at war with each other,” he warned.
Will India’s draft PNG regulations power or paralyze hydrocarbon E&P?
The energy sector as a whole, and Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production in particular, has always been a high priority item on the Government of India’s agenda. The fact that India still imports 90% of the crude it consumes brings the sector into sharp focus. The importance of Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production has only been emphasized further by the imbalance created by ballooning domestic demand juxtaposed against declining domestic production, and increasing geopolitical uncertainties. All Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production in India – whether by the State-Owned Enterprises or Foreign / Private Operators – is conducted and regulated by the provisions of the Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Act 1948 (“Act”) and the Petroleum and Natural Gas Rules, 1959 (“Rules”). The Act and the Rules have been amended from time to time, to reflect the changing realities of the Indian E&P sector, including the entry of private and foreign operators, the introduction of Coal Bed Methane, Shale Gas, Shale Oil, and other hydrocarbons, and the policy shift, first to the New Exploration Licensing Policy at the turn of the century, and more recently, to the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy, and in parallel, from a Nomination regime to Production Sharing Contracts regime to the Open Acreage Licensing based Revenue Sharing Contracts regime. Yet, it cannot be denied that the legislative framework for the industry was getting a bit long in the tooth. After all, the Act is almost seventy-seven years old and the Rules just eleven years younger. In the backdrop of the global, regional, and local developments in the energy sector over the past two decades, in an unambiguous declaration of its openness to ‘updating’ the legislative framework, the Government amended the Act w.e.f. 15 April 2025 to move away from a ‘Crude Oil’ and ‘Natural Gas’ centric regime to a wider ‘Mineral Oils’ regime that brings the wider array of hydrocarbon energy within its fold, with an eye on boosting domestic production of mineral oils. As a follow-up, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has recently published (for receiving feedback and suggestions ) the Draft Petroleum and Natural Gas Rules, 2025 (“Draft PNG Rules”), with which it intends to replace the Rules. While it is indeed heartening to note that rather than tweaking the Rules yet again to reflect the changed energy sector landscape, the Government has chosen to bring in a ground-up fresh set of Rules, in my view, there have been as many misses as hits in the Draft. Let’s look at the hits (and these are only illustrative) first – bearing in mind India’s energy security needs and the need to maximise production expeditiously and economically, the Draft Rules postulate, firstly, an authorization for production from all parts of a reservoir including those extending beyond the geographical boundary of the contract area – and for this purpose, wherever possible, for an extension of the lease area or the merger of lease areas, and, secondly, the extension of rights under existing leases and contracts to conduct all mineral oil operations across the spectrum of energy hydrocarbons. Another big positive is the clearest indication yet, of a desire to bring in transparency and reasonableness in administrative decision-making, by making it mandatory for the Government to provide reasons in writing if any application is being rejected or if any direction is issued to the llessee/contractor following good international petroleum industry practices, to do or abstain from doing certain acts. The Draft PNG Rules also bring greenhouse gas emissions into focus, with provisions being made for in-reservoir sequestration rather than atmospheric release. Another important feature is the proposal for the development of comprehensive or integrated energy projects that may potentially combine the generation of renewable energy with conventional energy exploration and production.
Area under oil, gas exploration in India has jumped 76 pc in last 10 years: Hardeep Puri
As much as 76 per cent of the total area in India’s sedimentary basin currently being explored for oil and gas has come under active exploration since 2014, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri has said. Addressing the CII annual business summit here, the minister said that in the last decade the Government has succeeded in increasing the explored area for oil and gas in India’s sedimentary basin from 6 per cent to 10 per cent which would soon reach 15 per cent. “We intend to increase India’s oil and gas exploration acreage to 1 million sq km by 2030,” he said. The minister further stated that India’s rapidly expanding energy economy was in a robust state under the leadership of PM Modi. He pointed out that energy security was now a strategic necessity for India in a volatile global energy landscape being shaped by geopolitical realignments, conflicts, and climate commitments. “The size and magnitude of India’s energy sector can be gauged by the fact that in 2024-25, India imported around 242.4 million tonnes of crude oil and spent $137 billion on the imports, while increasing the number of countries we import from, to 40 from 27 earlier,” Puri said. India has also been able to navigate the trilemma of energy availability, affordability and sustainability through the difficult times; and in doing so, while fuel prices around the world were skyrocketing, India was the only country where the prices actually came down and have remained there as a result of proactive measures implemented by PM Modi for the benefit of the citizens, he added. Puri further stated that with key reforms and fresh thrust to growth in the sector, India is now on the fast track of growth by expanding and strengthening the energy infrastructure and implementing innovative solutions to provide momentum to green energy transition. In this context, he mentioned that India’s ethanol blending initiative has also resulted in a significant jump. “We have increased the ethanol blending in petrol from 1.53 per cent in 2013-14 to around 20 per cent in April 2025, as we now look beyond,” he added.
Govt cuts APM gas price for first time in 2 years
For the first time in two years, the government has reduced the price of natural gas used for producing CNG for vehicles and cooking gas, reflecting a decline in benchmark rates. The price of natural gas from legacy fields allocated to state-owned ONGC without auction has been reduced from USD 6.75 to USD 6.41 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), according to a notification from the Oil Ministry’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). The reduction, which is the first since the government in April 2023 implemented a new formula to price such gas, will aid city gas retailers like Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Mahanagar Gas Ltd and Adani-Total Gas Ltd who had been reeling under cost pressures from rise in input cost. The price of natural gas from legacy fields allocated to state-owned ONGC without auction has been reduced from USD 6.75 to USD 6.41 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), according to a notification from the Oil Ministry’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). The reduction, which is the first since the government in April 2023 implemented a new formula to price such gas, will aid city gas retailers like Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Mahanagar Gas Ltd and Adani-Total Gas Ltd who had been reeling under cost pressures from rise in input cost.
Elon Musk Says Oil Is “Small-Time”
With six little words, Elon Musk has relegated the oil industry to a historical footnote. This, despite the oil industry underpinning the workings of the entire world. “Compared to solar, oil is small-time,” Musk posted on X, delivering a withering verdict on the fossil fuel era. No charts, no caveats. Just a blunt assertion that the sun—not crude oil—will define the future of global energy. From a man whose fortunes straddle both electricity and ambition, the message was clear: oil may have powered the past, but it won’t own what comes next. The statement from Musk, however, doesn’t mean that fossil fuels are irrelevant. Musk warned in 2022 that the world would need to continue extracting oil and gas lest civilization start to crumble. “Realistically, I think we need to use oil and gas in the short term because otherwise, civilization will crumble,” adding that the transition to sustainable energy would “take some decades to complete.” At the time, Musk implored those who would listen to extract more oil and gas—not less. He also cautioned against demonizing fossil fuels. Musk’s latest statement doesn’t necessarily run contrary to that, but it does shine a light on his view on sustainable energy—solar will be king someday—and despite oil’s current dominance, it is without long-term relevance. Still, for an industry that fuels 80% of global energy demand, the comment comes as a gut punch. Whether it proves visionary or premature will depend on how quickly the world can resolve solar’s storage and scalability challenges—two serious hurdles that solar critics have highlighted for years. But betting against Musk’s version of the future is a risky proposition. He’s not just talking up solar—he’s building the factories, the batteries, and the grid-scale operations needed to make it dominant. For oil, the warning is implicit: your reign isn’t over, but the countdown has started.
Qatar’s share in India’s LNG imports hits 3-year low as US gains ground
According to the GIIGNL’s 2025 report, India imported 27 million tonnes of LNG in 2024, marking a 23 per cent year-on-year growth, the second-largest global rebound The move by India to procure more liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from the US to compensate for trade imbalances is eating into the share of its top supplier, Qatar, which hit a three-year low in the 2024 calendar year (CY). The Arab country, which usually accounts for half of India’s LNG imports, saw its share dip below 50 per cent last year. GIIGNL, the international association of LNG importers, pointed out in its 2025 annual report that India recorded the second-largest rebound among LNG importers, with shipments hitting 27 million tonnes (mt) last year, an increase of 5 mt, or 23 per cent year over year. At the end of the 2024 CY, the US share grew to almost one-fifth of India’s cumulative inbound cargoes, more than doubling in a span of five years. It accounted for 19 per cent of the total imports in 2024′ Qatar remained India’s top LNG supplier but its share declined to 42 per cent, compared to 50 per cent in 2023 and 53 per cent in 2022. The UAE, which lost its spot as India’s second-largest LNG supplier to the US in 2023, cornered a little over one-tenth of the volumes procured by the world’s fourth-largest LNG importer last year.
The oil market has a bigger problem than a slowing China – India
India is the stuff of dreams for OPEC and Big Oil: a rapidly developing nation of nearly 1.5 billion people where petroleum consumption is still in its infancy. It’s the next China — so the theory goes. Perhaps one day, but in 2025 it’s still the stuff of dreams. For years, energy economists have talked about “structural tailwinds” — including benign demographics, a burgeoning middle class and accelerating urbanization and industrialization — that would propel Indian oil demand. Those phenomena turned China into the world’s engine of petroleum demand growth (along with everything else) for a quarter century. From 2000 to 2025, the Asian giant added an average of 485,000 barrels a day every year to global consumption. Now, the boom is ending. Weighed down by slower economic growth and the rapid uptake of electric cars, Chinese oil demand will expand by 135,000 barrels a day this year, according to the International Energy Agency. Except for the pandemic period, that would be the smallest annual increase since 2005. If the bulls were right, India would be taking over by now. But it isn’t: For the last three months, its oil demand growth has been contracting. As things stand, India consumption may increase by as little as 130,000 barrels a day this year, about half what many thought a year ago; if confirmed, that would be the smallest annual increase in a decade, excluding the pandemic period.
Rising power demand pushes India’s LNG terminal utilisation higher in 2024
India’s LNG imports rose by more than 19% to 26.15 mt in 2024 against 21.96 mt in 2023 A searing summer coupled with prolonged heat waves accelerated India’s power demand last year with the world’s third largest energy consumer enhancing gas-based electricity generation, leading to higher utilisation at LNG terminals compared to 2023 and 2022. Natural gas is converted into LNG for transporting it through gas tankers. Regasification is the process of converting it back into gas. Higher LNG imports lead to higher utilisation levels at LNG terminals. According to the International Gas Union’s (IGU) world LNG report 2025, India’s LNG imports rose by more than 19 per cent to 26.15 million tonnes (mt) in 2024 against 21.96 mt in 2023, a 4.19 mt Y-o-Y increase. India accounted for 6.36 per cent of the global LNG market last year. China (19.12 per cent share), Japan (16.47 per cent), South Korea (11.43 per cent) and France (4.39 per cent) are the other top four LNG importing countries. Demand rebounded in Asia with China and India posting strong Y-o-Y growth in spot LNG imports, driven by heat waves, infrastructure expansions, and greater reliance on gas-for-power, IGU pointed out. Higher Utilisation “Average regasification utilisation in India grew noticeably in 2024 from 49 per cent in the prior year (2023) to 59 per cent, as the market raised LNG buying to meet gas for power demand due to heat waves,” the report pointed out. Regasification utilisation in 2023 was flat at 49 per cent compared to the 2022 CY, IGU data show. On the back of its regasification capacity additions, India witnessed rapid growth in LNG imports during 2010-2020, making it one of the top importing markets. It rose to become the world’s fourth largest LNG importer in 2023, with 22 mt imports, replacing France. India has seven LNG terminals with a cumulative capacity of 44.5 mt per annum (mtpa) as of 2024 (CY), overtaking the US to become the world’s fifth largest market by regasification capacity. Three new terminals and four expansion projects are under construction in India, of which five are onshore and two are floating based. By 2026, these undertakings are projected to bring 27 mtpa of regasification capacity and 1.12 million cubic meters (mcm) of storage capacity online, it added. Uncertainties Sustained low prices associated with the arrival of the next wave of LNG capacity could spark a surge in LNG demand. However, the outlook is clouded by the risk of delays and cost overruns in new supply and expansion projects emanating from factors such as geopolitics, trade policy, inflation, and labour shortages, IGU pointed out. “In Asia, most of the demand risk lies in India’s and China’s energy mix and economic outlook. When prices were elevated in late 2024, the price arbitrage for US cargoes into Asia was firmly shut as China and India shunned significant spot procurement.
Oil Prices Under Pressure From the Prospect of Another OPEC+ Hike
Crude oil prices slid further today after a weak start to the week, following reports that OPEC+ was discussing a greater than originally planned production hike for July. These reports have been circulating for a few days now, fueling pessimism among traders and forecasters. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $64.60 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate was at $61.30, after last week both recouped some of their earlier losses on reports about a more or less imminent Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. “Crude oil edged lower as the market contemplated the outlook for rising OPEC supply,” ANZ analysts said earlier today in a note, as quoted by Reuters. On the other hand, ING analysts noted President Trump’s concession to the EU, which delayed the entry into effect of 50% tariffs to early July in case the two failed to seal a new trade deal. Also on the bullish side, President Trump threatened Russia with more sanctions after intensified strikes on Ukraine that followed a large-scale Ukrainian attack on Russian territory. As for OPEC+, the Dutch bank’s analysts have assumed that the group will indeed add another 411,000 barrels to its output in July, ensuring that the international oil market is well supplied during the second half of the year. Meanwhile, in an update on the ongoing attempt to negotiate a nuclear deal between the United States and Iran, the latter’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said that the country will be able to survive even if no deal is negotiated and sanctions remain in place. “It’s not like we will die of hunger if they refuse to negotiate with us or impose sanctions,” Pezeshkian said, as quoted by Iranian state media. “We will find a way to survive.” If the two do reach a deal, the U.S. will likely lift sanctions on Iran’s oil industry, which would boost international flows of Iranian crude, depressing prices.