India to lead global oil demand: S&P Global
Even as long-term global oil demand is projected to decline due to alternative energy adoption and efficiency gains, India is expected to lead the global oil demand growth, as per S&P Global Commodity Insights. The growth in demand will, however, increase the country’s import dependency, reinforcing the need for a diversified crude sourcing strategy amid inadequate domestic supplies. US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on all trading partners have introduced significant economic uncertainty, potentially reducing global GDP growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025, the agency said. This, S&P forecasts, could cut oil demand growth from 1.2 million barrels per day to 0.8 million b/d in 2025, with the possibility of zero or negative growth in the second half of the year. “Demand from China and the US, is expected to be most affected, particularly for refined products like diesel and jet fuel. Meanwhile, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised output by 411,000 b/d for May–July 2025, triggering a 20% drop in Brent prices,” said Premasish Das, Executive Director for Oil Markets Research and Analysis, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “The increase, driven by frustration among compliant producers, may be offset if overproducers like Iraq, Russia, and Kazakhstan reduce their output,” he added. S&P now forecasts an average Brent price of $68/barrel for 2025, up from $63/barrel earlier, but expects a decline below $60/bbl by year-end due to strong supply growth. Geopolitics is now central to trade forecasts and corporate strategy, noted Rahul Kapoor, Vice President and Global Head of Shipping Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Petrol sales rise 6.4% in June; diesel up 1.2%
Petrol sales increased 6.4% year-on-year in June, while diesel sales went up 1.2%, according to provisional data provided by the petroleum and natural gas ministry. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) sales increased 3.6% year-on-year in June. The consumption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), used primarily for cooking, surged 10.2%. For the April-June quarter, petrol sales registered 6.9% growth, while diesel sales went up 2.5%. Jet fuel consumption increased 3.9%, and cooking gas saw a 10.1% surge during the quarter. Summer holidays supported petrol sales, while diesel demand appears to have been affected by the early onset of monsoon. ATF sales have slowed this financial year after increasing nearly 9% in 2024-25. Diesel accounts for nearly 40% of the total refined products consumed in the country. The fuel’s sales are influenced by economic activity, rainfall and the adoption of alternative energy sources.
Crude oil prices back at $67/barrel, likely to remain stable: Minister Puri
Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri on Tuesday said crude oil prices are back at USD 67 per barrel and are likely to remain around that level. Speaking at the 77th Foundation Day of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI), Puri also said India increased biofuel blending and is sourcing crude oil from 40 countries as against 27 earlier. He said when the tensions were at their peak in the Gulf region recently, many tried to be alarmist about the crude oil prices moving northwards. “I said nothing will happen. Oil prices sahi rahenge (will remain stable). Don’t worry. And the price of oil is back to USD 67 a barrel. Why do I say that? …there is enough oil available in the world,” the minister said. Moreover, Puri added India has diversified its crude oil sourcing. “We used to buy oil from 27 countries, we are buying it from 40 countries,” he said. The minister also spoke in detail about the achievements made by the country in bio-fuel blending, and meeting targets ahead of schedule. “We are the second-highest biofuel blending nation in the world. And today, when I look at it, any day you could raise it from 20 per cent to 25 per cent and 30 per cent. You have to just do your consultation and take what is along,” he said. Puri further said green hydrogen is the fuel of the future. In his address, the minister also listed the achievements of the Modi government during the past 11 years. He said the ministry’s flagship Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, has delivered over 16.5 crore LPG connections since 2014, empowering women, reducing indoor air pollution, and promoting public health. The growing market capitalisation of Oil & Gas PSUs-nearly doubling to Rs 8.79 lakh crore since 2014-reflects the sector’s robust performance and the trust of investors, he said. He further said that in the past 11 years, India has risen from the eleventh to the fourth largest economy in the world. He said India’s GDP has more than doubled-from USD 2.1 trillion in 2014 to USD 4.3 trillion in 2025. “We have recently overtaken Japan and are poised to become the third-largest economy by 2030, overtaking Germany,” the minister said while highlighting the country’s resilience during global headwinds and the critical role played by bold policy reforms, extensive social welfare schemes, and sound financial management. The Minister called on chartered accountants to embrace artificial intelligence and advanced analytics, automating routine tasks to focus on strategic advisory roles and harnessing data-driven insights for more effective decision-making. “Embracing AI is no longer optional-it is essential for staying competitive and innovative in today’s evolving financial world,” he said. Puri urged the ICAI community to uphold transparency, efficiency, and accountability as India marches towards a developed nation by 2047. Speaking at the occasion, ICAI President Charanjot Singh Nanda said that from 1700 members to over 4 lakh members spanning across 47 countries, the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India has grown a long way in the last 77 years. “As a trusted partner in nation building ICAI has always supported the Government initiatives contributing to India’s journey towards becoming a Viksit Bharat. Our profession is evolving rapidly, with AI, blockchain, and big data, the tools may change, but our values must remain constant,” Nanda said.
India plans new strategic oil reserve to enhance energy security
India is exploring building three new strategic oil reserves to boost its emergency stockpile and strengthen energy security, the head of the company in charge of strategic reserves said on Wednesday. India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer, imports more than 80% of its oil needs and is constantly diversifying its crude sources to mitigate the impact of geopolitical crises on its oil procurement. State-run engineering consultancy Engineers India Ltd is doing feasibility studies to build the new reserves, Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserve Ltd’s CEO L R Jain told Reuters. “In case of exigencies, we will be better prepared,” he said. India currently has strategic petroleum reserves at three locations – Mangalore, Padur and Vizag – in southern India to store up to 5.33 million tons of crude that could be tapped in the case of supply disruptions. It plans to create a new 5.2 million-5.3 million ton reserve at salt caverns at Bikaner in the desert state of Rajasthan, and a 1.75-million ton facility at Mangalore in southern Karnataka state, he said. It will also create a reserve in Bina, central Madhya Pradesh state, with capacity yet to be decided, he said. After feasibility studies, the projects will require approval from the federal cabinet. They will come in addition to a new 2.5 million-ton strategic petroleum reserve at Padur and a 4 million-ton facility at Chandikhol in eastern Odisha state that have already been approved. India has over the years overhauled its policy on strategic petroleum reserves to allow private participation and commercialisation, mirroring the model adopted by countries such as Japan and South Korea which allow private lessees, mostly oil majors, to trade the crude. “We are looking for 90 days of reserves,” Jain said. “And Indian fuel demand is also rising, so we need additional storage.” Expanding oil storage capacity would also help India join the International Energy Agency, which requires its members to hold a minimum of 90 days of oil consumption. India’s storage capacity, including that held by companies and in transit, is currently sufficient to meet its fuel demand for 75 days.
China Continues to Buy a Lot of Iranian Crude Oil
Chinese refiners continue to buy high volumes of crude oil from Iran, with first-half imports at the major port clusters estimated at nearly 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), according to oil flow tracking data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg. Ports near industrial clusters Qingdao, Dalian, and Zhoushan are importing crude from Iran in several legs from the Persian Gulf via Malaysia with ship-to-ship (STS) transfers using shadow fleet vessels and tankers blacklisted by the United States. Officially, China’s customs data show there haven’t been any crude imports from Iran since 2022. Unofficially, China buys nearly 90% of all of Iran’s crude exports in multiple-stage journeys and transfers from one tanker to another. Last month alone, ports near Qingdao welcomed a total of 15.5 million barrels of Iranian crude, according to Kpler’s data. These barrels were worth nearly $1 billion in revenue for Iran at current prices for its discounted crude, Bloomberg has estimated. China hiked its imports of crude oil from Iran in June, as Iran accelerated loadings in May and independent Chinese refiners bought more discounted Iranian barrels. Amid overall high imports in recent weeks, thanks to the lower oil prices in April and May when cargoes were bought, China significantly boosted its imports of crude from Iran this month, according to data from tanker-tracking firms cited by Reuters. The high volumes of Iranian oil going into China is due to multi-year high Iranian crude oil loadings in May and Chinese independent refiners, the so-called teapots, bringing in more supply of the cheaper Iranian crude to fill inventories for the peak summer demand season. Analysts expect Chinese oil imports from Iran to remain at high levels in the coming weeks amid signals from the U.S. Administration that it would be more lenient toward China buying Iran’s oil. Following the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the US, also.
ONGC in talks with Saudi Arabia on new refinery
India’s state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is reportedly in talks with Saudi Arabia to develop a greenfield refinery in Gujarat, the home state of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The proposed coastal refinery will be set up in Jamnagar district through a joint venture company, an unnamed government official told moneycontrol.com, an Indian financial portal.
Commercial LPG cylinder price cut by Rs 58.50 from today, ATF price hiked
Oil marketing companies have cut the price of 19 kg commercial LPG gas cylinders by Rs 58.50, effective 1 July. In Delhi, this brings the new price down to Rs 1,665 per cylinder. Meanwhile, price of jet fuel (ATF) was sharply increased by 7.5 per cent after three rounds of price cuts. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices have been raised by Rs 6,271.5 per kilolitre, or 7.5%, reaching Rs 89,344.05 per kilolitre in the national capital, which is home to one of the busiest airports in India, according to state-owned fuel retailers. This price hike comes as a significant reversal, accounting for half of the total reductions made over the past three months. The last reduction was on June 1, when prices fell by Rs 2,414.25 per kilolitre (2.82%), bringing the rate down to Rs 83,072.55 per kilolitre. Earlier, there were additional cuts of 4.4% (Rs 3,954.38 per kilolitre) on May 1 and a notable 6.15% (Rs 5,870.54 per kilolitre) on April 1. The recent increase in ATF prices aligns with a rise in international oil prices following Israel’s recent military actions against Iran. This escalation in fuel costs is expected to add financial strain on commercial airlines, which allocate nearly 40% of their operating expenses to fuel.
APM gas price hits ceiling of $6.75 per mmBtu
he price of natural gas used for producing CNG for vehicles and cooking gas was raised 5 per cent for July, following a surge in oil prices triggered by Israel’s military strike on Iran. As part of the monthly revision, the price of natural gas from legacy fields operated by state-owned companies was increased to USD 6.75 per million British thermal units, up from USD 6.41, according to a notification from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the Oil Ministry. USD 6.75 per mmBtu is the ceiling price for gas from legacy fields, known as APM gas, which accounts for roughly half the input used in producing CNG. It is also utilised in power generation, fertiliser production, and piped directly to households for cooking A higher input gas price would squeeze margins of city gas retailers. City gas retailers may choose to hike CNG prices if the increase pinches them. APM gas price is revised on the first of every month, set at 10 per cent of the average import price of crude oil in the preceding month. But this price is subject to a floor or minimum rate and a ceiling or maximum rate. The ceiling price for 2025-26 is USD 6.75.
MNRE revises norms for biomass programme
In a bid to strengthen India’s clean energy transition and promote the efficient use of biomass and biowaste resources, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has issued revised guidelines under Phase-I of the National Bioenergy Programme, applicable for FY 2021–22 to 2025–26. The updated framework is designed to simplify procedures, promote ease of doing business, and encourage faster adoption of biomass and waste-to-energy technologies across the country. The revised guidelines cover both the Biomass Programme and the Waste-to-Energy Programme, introducing major reforms aimed at reducing administrative burden, enhancing operational flexibility, and aligning financial assistance with plant performance. Key Revisions in Biomass Programme One of the most significant reforms under the revised Biomass Programme is the simplification of documentation and approval procedures, particularly benefiting micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Key changes include: Reduced documentation for briquette and pellet manufacturers by eliminating requirements for multiple clearances. Flexible sale arrangements: The previous mandate for a two-year briquette/pellet sale contract has been replaced with a general sale agreement, giving project developers more flexibility to respond to market dynamics. IoT-based digital monitoringintroduced as a cost-effective alternative to expensive SCADA systems, enabling easier compliance, particularly for smaller units. Improved stubble management: The guidelines support India’s goal to reduce air pollution from stubble burning, especially in northern states.
Russia’s Rosneft Oil Company in early talks with Reliance to sell stake in India unit
Russian oil giant PJSC Rosneft Oil Company is in early talks with Reliance Industries for sale of its 49.13 per cent stake in Nayara Energy, which operates a 20-million tonnes-a-year oil refinery and 6,750 petrol pumps in India, sources said. Reliance has held preliminary talks for acquisition of Nayara, which will help it overtake state-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) to become India’s No.1 oil refiner as well as give a meaningful presence in the fuel marketing space. But the talks are at preliminary stage and there is no guarantee that they may lead to a definite deal as valuation remains a sticky ground, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. Top Rosneft officials have visited India at least thrice in the last one year, including visits to Ahmedabad and Mumbai, for talks with potential investors