The evolving energy landscape in India: Opportunities for investments
India’s energy use will grow at a rapid pace to fuel economic development, urbanisation, and improved energy access . This provides a $750 billion investment opportunity for investors. The energy sector globally is going through a transition. Oil prices have rallied to a four-year-high, on the back of increasing demand and production cuts by both Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC members. Now it has reached a point where India and other oil importing countries are starting to feel the heat. The Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) estimates that even at an average crude price of $65 a barrel, India’s import bill could reach almost $110 billion in FY18-19, a jump of almost 25% over $88 billion in FY17-18. This would imply a significant deterioration in the current account deficit, increase in inflation and adverse effect on the overall growth prospects of the economy. India continues to be the fastest growing large economy in the world. The Jan-March quarter of 2018, saw a 7.7% GDP growth rate, with more than 7% growth in electricity consumption, and more than 5% growth in consumption of petroleum products. And this trend in energy consumption will continue in the medium- to long-term. International agencies including International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC and BP etc. are projecting India’s energy demand to grow in excess of 5% over the next two decades, fastest among major economies in the world. Interestingly, as the world transitions towards a low-carbon economy, the impact on ‘import dependent’ nations is likely to be more profound and rapid. India is heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports (83% for crude, 50% for LNG and 18% for coal, though coal imports have come down in the recent years). Falling prices of solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation costs, expectations of falling battery storage costs, and adoption of electric vehicles (EV) is going to transform the energy landscape in the coming two decades. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while elaborating on his vision for energy sector in India, alluded to the ‘seven horses of the chariot of the sun God,’ emphasising on the need for India to tap into all affordable and sustainable sources of energy. With overwhelming focus on solar, wind, biomass, diversifying supply reliance beyond the conventional coal, hydro-, nuclear-, and gas- based power generation would be a key imperative for future. India would need to explore all possible sources of energy for greater access, security, affordability and sustainability. Government initiatives over the last four years are a clear indication of the fact that India is gearing up to embrace this transition. It has accelerated the target for renewable energy capacity to reach 225 GW by 2022. The PM has set the target of reducing oil import by 10%, by 2022, through an increase in domestic exploration and production activities, and harnessing the potential of bio-fuels. There is considerable thrust on moving towards a gas-based economy and massive investments have been planned on developing pipeline infrastructure, LNG facilities, and expanding the City Gas Distribution (CGD) network, to support this move. In the wake of these developments, Deloitte came out with a thought paper on energy transitions and investment opportunities in the Indian energy sector, as a part of the IEF Summit in April 2018. Emerging trends reveal a plethora of investment opportunities across the value chain. While part of this investment would be towards capacity ramp-up and development of supporting infrastructure, a large share of it would also be attributed to systemic innovation and digital interventions across the value chain. In the power sector, electricity generation has shown considerable growth in the last few years, and India has successfully transitioned from an era of chronic power shortages, into a situation of over-capacity. This will lead to almost negligible or no investment in the conventional coal- based generation capacity in the next 5 to 7 years. The focus in generation segment will largely be on renewable energy, solar power in particular. Electricity distribution, however, remains an area where state utilities have considerable ground to cover, as the government is targeting universal access of 24*7 electricity to all Indian households, having reached all villages in April 2018. The government is therefore focusing on developing initiatives around smart grids, smart metering, and automation solutions for the utilities. Digital transformation of utilities to improve asset utilisation and reliability, is another area which is likely to see growth. Battery and storage solutions market could also see growth spurt in foreseeable future, and is garnering considerable investor interest. Overall, power and utilities, together with the renewable energy sector, could attract investments of over $425 billion. Oil & gas sector in India has also seen several transformational reforms in the last four years. Access to clean cooking fuel has expanded rapidly. Through PM UJJWALA Yojana, nearly 40 million households have been given free LPG gas connection and the government is targeting another 40 million through this scheme. Through HELP, the entire licensing regime in the upstream sector has been liberalised and through continuous rounds of bidding, India’s sedimentary basin will be fully covered from an exploration & production (E&P) standpoint. Over the last two decades, India has emerged as a refining hub in Asia, serving a massive domestic market for refined petroleum products and also catering to the exports market. Some of the key areas of focus in the downstream value chain include overall energy efficiency, upgrading refineries to produce BS-VI compliant fuels and so on. Petrochemicals also offer a great opportunity for the incumbents and is likely to grow at a CAGR of 10% over the next five years, to reach the $100 billion mark by 2022. Oil & gas segment could witness investments to the tune of $325 billion over the next decade. Overall, what comes out clearly is that India’s energy use will grow at a rapid pace to fuel economic development, urbanisation, improved energy access and improved manufacturing base. This provides a $750 billion investment opportunity for investors in the energy sector over the
5 oil PSUs sign JV pact for N-E Natural Gas Pipeline Grid
Five central oil PSUs – IOCL, ONGC, GAIL, OIL and NRL – today signed a joint venture agreement for executing the North-East Natural Gas Pipeline Grid as a step towards the Urja Ganga Gas Pipeline Project, a NRL statement said here. The JV company shall develop, build, operate and maintain the Natural Gas Pipeline Grid connecting Guwahati to the other major North-Eastern cities and major load centres such as Numaligarh Refinery and integrating it with gas producing fields, wherever feasible, in the region. The JV agreement was signed by IOCL Executive Director (Project) H K Singh, ONGC General Manager R Kaul, GAIL Chief General Manager (PD) D M Rao, OIL Chief General Manager (PL) B K Mishra and NRL Senior Chief General Manager (Corporate Affairs) A K Bhattacharya, the statement said. The Rs 6000 crore Grid’s estimated length would be around 1500 km, the statement said adding that the tentative time schedule for commissioning it would be four years, including one year for pre-project activities. The JV company will have equal equity contribution from all the partners. The project will connect the state capitals of all the eight North Eastern states – Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim and Tripura. The Gas Grid Project will connect all NE States to the National Gas Grid through Barauni-Guwahati Gas Pipeline being laid by GAIL. From Guwahati, the pipeline will extend to Numaligarh, Dimapur, Kohima and Imphal in one direction; Shillong, Silchar, Aizawl and Agartala in the second direction and to Itanagar in the third direction. Gangtok will be connected from Siliguri from the gas pipeline of GAIL coming from Barauni to Guwahati. Evgeny Svechnikov Womens Jersey
Spot LNG prices slide as demand retreats in Japan, China, South Korea
Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices softened for another week as the focus of purchasing activity switched to September, encountering weak demand, new supply and a falling yuan potentially sapping Chinese demand. Spot prices for September delivery in Asia were assessed at $9.50 per million British thermal units (Btu), down 50 cents from the previous week. Traders Vitol, Trafigura and Diamond Gas International offered five cargoes in total via the Platts Market on Close process but there were no takers even as offers on some of the cargoes slipped to around $9.05 per mmBtu, traders said. In the world’s three-biggest LNG importers Japan, China and South Korea demand weakened or was set to drop later in the year. Already, Japanese LNG imports in June fell to the lowest in more than two years as utilities switched on more nuclear reactors shut following the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. Japan has six reactors operating and three others have passed safety inspections and could be operating by October, allowing utilities to switch away from LNG. With temperatures in Japan set to fall back in line with average levels over the next week, demand for gas should also be tempered as cooling demand dips. Chinese demand could be reduced by the yuan’s sharp slide against the U.S. dollar to a one-year low as the trade dispute between Beijing and Washington unnerves markets, making U.S. dollar-denominated LNG more costly for Chinese buyers. The pace of spot purchasing has slackened in China although one deal was heard done this week at an estimated $9.50 per mmBtu, sources said. Two Arctic shipments from Russia’s Yamal project flowed to China as ice melt along the Northern Sea Route cleared a path, speeding up deliveries to the world’s second-biggest LNG consumer, potentially curbing China’s call on spot purchases for now. In South Korea, imports are set to ease from record levels racked up in the first half of the year, with appetite for the fuel from utilities seen fading as a raft of nuclear power stations come back online. With an average of only six reactors expected to be offline over the rest of the year, analysts say shipments of LNG into the world’s No.3 importer of the fuel are likely to decline. Restocking LNG inventory at South Korean terminals is already well under way ahead of winter, sources said. South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co sought a cargo for November delivery via tender on Friday. Russia’s Sakhalin II LNG project added to supply this week after offering a cargo loading on Sept. 5. In the Atlantic, Trinidad’s Point Fortin LNG Exports also offered a cargo loading at the end of August. Furthermore, new supplies are expected in September. Japan’s Inpex expects its Ichthys plant in Australia to start up in September, along with the second production train at Yamal in Russia, boosting shipments to world markets. European spot prices so far remain uncompetitive with Asia in drawing away Qatari cargoes, as storage inventories recover across the continent. Indian Oil Corp was seeking a cargo for late August delivery. Nick Vigil Womens Jersey
Indian Navy helps ONGC in stopping offshore gas leak at Bombay High
Around noon Indian Navy helicopter was deployed to fly with ONGC technician to fix the gas leakage on an unmanned ONGC platform at Bombay High on Sunday. The operation lasted almost 4-5 hours and the leakage was fixed and averted a major disaster. The Indian Navy received an alert from the ONGC about a gas leak reported onboard the offshore ONGC platform S1-6. “Since the ONGC field helicopters could not undertake the mission due to adverse weather conditions they asked for assistance,” said a spokesperson of the Indian Navy. The Indian Navy launched a Seaking 42C helicopter to transfer the ONGC technical team to the platform on 22 so that repairs could be undertaken. “The naval helicopter had to undertake this mission in challenging circumstances including strong and gusting winds of over 30 knots. Due to the small size of the helipad on the imperiled offshore platform, the repair team had to be winched down from the helicopter. The daring mission was carried out with skillful precision and helped to avert a potentially dangerous outcome,” said the official. Morgan Moses Authentic Jersey
Donald Trump Saudi oil Saudis pump more crude oil for Trump, then doubt if it’s needed
Under pressure from US President Donald Trump, Saudi Arabia has rushed to boost oil production — only to discover that global markets might not yet need it. The kingdom’s crude output surged the most in three years last month, as Trump demanded his ally’s help in cooling gasoline prices and filling in the supply gap that will be created by his sanctions on Iran. Yet the Saudis are struggling to sell as much extra oil as they’d hoped, and are privately fretting that they may have opened the taps too quickly, according to people briefed by Riyadh in the last few days. “Saudi Arabia and several other OPEC members have increased exports sharply ahead of sanctions on Iran, and the timing mismatch between these effects is pressuring oil prices,” said Martijn Rats, managing director at Morgan Stanley in London. A rare public statement from the Saudi Energy Ministry on Thursday could be taken as an illustration of their unease. It rejected as “without basis” any concerns that the kingdom was moving to oversupply world markets. Exports would be stable this month and fall in August, it said. Price Pressure The Saudis and their allies — which include several neighbors from the Gulf Cooperation Council and also non-OPEC producer Russia — promised at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ last meeting in late June to boost output by about 1 million barrels a day to offset disruptions in Venezuela and Libya, plus the looming losses in Iran. They were reacting to pressure from Trump, who was bashing the cartel on Twitter after London crude price hit a three-year high of more than $80 a barrel in May. Prices have since retreated to about $73 as Libya restored some halted output and the escalating U.S.-China trade war stoked fears about the strength of demand. “They’re pushing out a heck of a lot of crude right now, and they’re worried about the downward pressure on prices,” said Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA in New York. “The Saudis are trying to thread a needle right now, and the width of that needle is $70 to $80.” Oil rose in response to the ministry’s statement and Brent crude, the international benchmark, was 0.5 per cent higher at $72.92 a barrel in London as of 8:13 am on Friday. Saudi Arabia initially planned to reach record output of 10.8 million barrels a day this month, people briefed on production policy said late last month. That level was always dependent on the strength of domestic and international demand, so could end up ranging from 10.6 million to 11 million, they said. The kingdom told fellow producers on Wednesday that output in July will be in line with June’s level of just below 10.5 million barrels a day, people familiar with the matter said. Iran Sanctions The impact of US sanctions on Iran’s oil shipments, which remains highly uncertain, will play a big part in determining the final outcome. Since quitting the international nuclear agreement with Iran, the Trump administration has sent conflicting signals, indicating last month that it intended to choke off Iranian crude exports entirely. More recently, however, officials such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin have suggested a more flexible approach could be taken. Iranian exports are already starting to fall, with shipments to Europe slumping by about 50 per cent in June, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency. A more significant supply gap won’t emerge until sanctions enter full force in November, according to the people who spoke with the Saudis, who asked not to be identified as the talks were private. As a result, the kingdom seems to be having difficulty right now placing all the barrels it wanted to. The problem is being compounded by weak appetite for crude in Asia, where concerns are building about the strength of demand, consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. said. “This is a market where the increase in GCC and Russian supplies has come at a time when the refinery bid is lacking,” said Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects’ chief oil analyst. Uncertain Appetite Saudi crude exports fell by about 500,000 barrels a day to 6.7 million in the first half of July compared with the same period in June, tanker tracking by Bloomberg shows. According to the statement on Thursday from the Energy Ministry, which cited Saudi Arabia’s liaison to OPEC Adeeb Al-Aama, exports for this month as a whole will be in line with June’s levels, and will decline by 100,000 barrels a day in August. With so many factors shifting the balance between global supply and demand, the appetite for additional Saudi crude may change, especially as the extent of Iran’s losses becomes clearer. Market sentiment could flip again to focus on worries over whether the kingdom has enough idle production capacity to prevent a shortage emerging on the global market. “We have hardly started to see a reduction in flows from Iran,” said Societe Generale’s Wittner. “Though there’s a lot of crude coming out from Saudi Arabia now, spare capacity is really going to be the big issue going forward. And spare capacity is getting very tight very quickly.”
Centre clears LNG terminal, hazardous waste treatment plant for TN
Mega projects in Tamil Nadu – a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal at Ennore and an integrated common hazardous waste treatment storage and disposal facility in Gummidipoondi – have been cleared by the central government. Minutes of a meeting of the Union ministry of environment, forests and climate change’s expert appraisal committee (EAC) said the environment and coastal regulation zone (CRZ) clearance had been amended for setting up the LNG terminal. The terminal, first taken up by Indian Oil Corporation, is now being executed by Indian Oil LNG Private Limited and will each year handle 5 million tonnes of LNG per annum to be used as fuel for captive power plants, having gas engine generators. Giving a detailed presentation on the hazardous waste management facility at the SIPCOT industrial complex in Gummidipoondi, Tamil Nadu Waste Management Limited (TNWML) and its consultant Ramky Enviro Services Private Limited said industrial waste management association had been roped in to set up the facility. There was no need to hold a public hearing for the project as it was to come up on a 66-acre plot in the SIPCOT complex, it said. TNWML should allocate about 33% of land for greenbelt development, mandated in the ministry’s guidelines, and 9 crore for Environment Management Plan with a recurring cost of 1.50 crore every year. Jake Fisher Jersey
Is The LNG Floating Storage Boom Over?
The relatively young industry of projects using floating storage and regasification units (FSRU) has enjoyed boom years since 2015 as many new importers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) used these floating types of carriers that are cheaper than having to build an entire onshore LNG import terminal. But the golden years of the FSRU, the first of which was used in 2005, may be over, at least for now, because the voracious Chinese natural gas demand has upended the LNG market and made less urgent the need for FSRU projects in new and much smaller markets. The FSRU market is still set to grow, but at a slower pace than in the past two years, according to analysts. Before 2017, a rising trend among emerging markets to seek the cleaner-than-coal fuel raised the number of LNG importers around the world, and many of the newcomers to the LNG ‘buyers’ club’ used the FSRU option. At around US$300-400 million, FSRU projects cost half the price of an onshore terminal. FSRUs are also flexible because the vessel can be used elsewhere once it is not needed. But then came the winter of 2017-2018 and the massive Chinese switch from coal-fired to natural gas-fired energy and surging LNG demand in Asia’s biggest market. This resulted in China lapping up global excess LNG supply and making FSRU projects in other—smaller—countries less attractive. Related: Chinese Oil Demand Growth Could Slow Down Soon “In the last year or so, FSRUs have suffered a bit of a setback from the stellar growth they were previously enjoying,” Andrew Buckland, Wood Mackenzie’s global LNG trade and shipping principal analyst, told Reuters. “Some of that is down to conditions unique to particular proposed projects. But a lot of it is more to do with demand being stronger than expected in existing conventional markets,” Buckland says. The Chinese push to cut pollution and make millions of households switch to natural gas from coal for heating resulted in China becoming the world’s second-largest LNG importer in 2017, outpacing South Korea and second only to Japan, the U.S. EIA said in February. Chinese LNG imports surged 46 percent last year. Despite the fact that China increased its domestic production and pipeline imports last year, natural gas shortages in northern China led to record levels of LNG imports during the winter. Overall, natural gas imports accounted for 40 percent of China’s 2017 natural gas supply, and LNG made up more than half of those imports, the EIA said. China is now looking to double its LNG import terminals, and is also expanding its underground gas storage close to major demand centers and to natural gas pipelines. The change in the LNG demand market, especially in China, has led to slowdown of planned FSRU projects in countries like Chile or South Africa. “Prior to last winter, when it looked like there’d be excess LNG, creating new demand centers via FSRUs looked a more attractive strategy than it does now,” WoodMac’s Buckland told Reuters. “Which is not to say they won’t come back to that in the future,” he added. Major players in the FSRU market are looking to combine FSRU with other business models such as LNG-to-power, or “gas stations” for ships that use LNG as a fuel in north Europe. Related: Houston To Get Its Own Crude Oil Futures As U.S. Exports Rise “The old ‘FSRU only’ business model is becoming crowded with pressure on returns,” one of the leading companies in the sector, Golar, told investors last month, and said it would turn to LNG-to-power projects to boost returns. Still, FSRU technology will continue to unlock demand in new markets, especially in South and Southeast Asia, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s (BNEF) Global LNG Outlook 2018. South and Southeast Asia are expected to become the main drivers for the LNG imports in the world in 2022-2023, said Maggie Kuang, head of Asia-Pacific LNG analysis and lead author of the report. For the LNG market, global imports this year are expected to set a new record and grow by 7.2 percent, BNEF said. “A further surge in demand to 2030 will be driven by environmental measures in China, rising power generation in South and Southeast Asia, and a reduction in domestic gas production in Europe.” Leonard Fournette Jersey
Vopak inks deal with Engro to buy 29 per cent of Pakistan’s first LNG terminal
Global independent tank storage company Vopak said on Friday it has inked an agreement with Pakisan’s Engro Corp to buy a 29 per cent stake in Pakistan’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facility. Vopak will invest in Elengy Terminal Pakistan, whose subsidiary Engro Elengy Terminal Pte Ltd (EETPL) owns the LNG facility in the country’s Port Qasim, it said in a statement, without giving the investment amount. “This new step in our cooperation gives Vopak an excellent entry in the growing Pakistan LNG market,” Eelco Hoekstra, Chairman of the Executive Board and Chief Executive Officer of Vopak, said in a statement. “This fits very well our ambitions to grow and diversify our service offering in LNG.” The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter, Vopak said. Jefferies analysts said in a note that the acquisition will cost $38 million. The facility, which started operations in 2015, consists of an LNG jetty and a pipeline connected to a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) which has been chartered by EETPL for 15 years. The pipeline supplies gas directly to the grid of EETPL’s sole customer, state-owned Sui Southern Gas Company. The facility is adjacent to the Engro Vopak chemical storage terminal jointly owned by the two companies. Marquette King Womens Jersey
South Korea LNG imports set to ease from record levels as power firms guzzle less gas
South Korean imports of liquefied natural gas are set to ease from record levels racked up in the first-half of the year, with appetite for the fuel from utilities seen fading as a raft of nuclear power stations come back online. The country’s imports of the commodity jumped nearly 16 percent year-on-year to a record 22.7 million tonnes in the first six months of 2018, according to customs data in mid-July, boosted by demand from power firms as around half the nation’s 24 nuclear plants were shut for maintenance. But with an average of only six reactors expected to be offline over the rest of the year, analysts say shipments of LNG into the world’s No.3 importer of the fuel are likely to decline. “(LNG) demand in the second-half won’t be as strong as in the first-half because nuclear run rates will rise,” said Yang Ji-hae, an analyst at Samsung Securities. South Korea mainly consumes natural gas for heating and cooking, although it has been pushing to use the fuel more in power generation as it looks to switch away from coal and nuclear. Gas power generation made up 29.1 percent of the country’s overall electricity output in January-May, up from 20.4 percent last year, according to Reuters calculations based on data from Korea Electric Power Corp. That compares to the share of nuclear power at 20.8 percent, down from typical levels of around 30 percent. State-run Korea Gas Corp (KOGAS) sold 19.7 million tonnes of gas in the January-June period, up 18.5 percent from last year, data from the country’s sole wholesaler shows. For power generation, 8.7 million tonnes of gas were sold during that period, up almost 31 percent on-year. LOOKING TO WINTER Nicholas Browne, senior gas analyst at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said that full-year 2018 LNG imports were expected to be similar to last year, with South Korean buyers already storing gas ahead of winter. “They are … filling storage in the traditional shoulder months, even if current spot prices are relatively high at $10/mmBtu. It likely means that KOGAS anticipates prices will head higher in the winter,” Browne said. LNG spot prices have averaged $10.03 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) so far this July, up from $5.59 per mmBtu in the same month last year. South Korea imported 37.6 million tonnes of LNG in 2017, customs data showed. KOGAS brings in around 32 million tonnes of LNG a year, with the rest purchased by private gas companies and utilities. Yang at Samsung Securities said demand for gas from the power sector would drop in the second-half, although she added that gas would “benefit from the country’s energy policy in the mid-to-long term”. William Karlsson Womens Jersey
Japan’s LNG imports fall to lowest since May 2016 as nuclear units come online
Japanese imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in June fell to the lowest in more than two years as the country’s utilities switched on more nuclear reactors that had been shut in the wake of the Fukushima atomic disaster in 2011. Japan has six reactors operating and three others have passed safety inspections and could be operating by October, allowing utilities to switch away from LNG. Spot prices for the fuel rose to a three-and-a-half-year high in June. Japan, the world’s biggest importer of LNG, brought in 5.55 million tonnes of the fuel in June, down more than 10 percent from a year earlier, official data showed on Wednesday. That was the lowest monthly import number since May 2016. Imports of thermal coal also fell in June, down 18.3 percent from a year earlier, and the lowest since May 2017, the data showed. The Fukushima disaster in March 2011 sparked the country’s worst energy crisis in the post-war period, forcing it to import huge amounts of LNG and driving prices to record highs. They also turned to cheaper coal imports. All of the country’s reactors were eventually shut down to be relicensed under new safety rules after the disaster highlighted regulatory and operator failings. Nine out of 40 commercially operable units have been relicensed under the new rules. One of the three not operating has been shut down by a court order that expires in September, while the other two are under regular maintenance and refueling and due to start operating within weeks. Still, nuclear power remains unpopular in the country and many hurdles remain to get more units operating beyond the nine approved, analysts have said. Frank Clark Jersey