Gazprom’s gas exports rise 3.1 per cent in first half of Jan
Russian gas giant Gazprom said on Wednesday its natural gas exports outside the former Soviet Union rose by 3.1 percent year-on-year during Jan. 1-15 to 8.6 billion cubic metres (bcm). Its gas production for the period rose by 3.7 percent to 22.8 bcm.
Worries for LNG as prices slip amid record North Asia imports
The spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia has completely missed its usual winter peak, with much of the blame being laid at the door of milder-than-usual temperatures trimming demand. That sounds perfectly plausible, but doesn’t quite tally with the fact that delivered volumes into the major consuming region of Northeast Asia hit a record-high in December. A total of 20.25 million tonnes of the super-chilled fuel were delivered in December to the region, which includes the top three consumers of Japan, China and South Korea, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Refinitiv. This was up 12.4 percent from the same month in 2017, adding to a 14-percent gain in shipments in November, 2018, from the same month a year earlier. It was also the most on record, eclipsing the 19.46 million tonnes from January, 2018. China was the main driver of the jump in imports, with 6.42 million tonnes arriving in December, up 27 percent from the same month in 2017. Top consumer Japan saw imports weaken, dropping by 9 percent to 7.72 million tonnes in December, whilst No.3 South Korea recorded an 11-percent increase to 4.81 million tonnes. The shipping data does show that LNG demand was strong for the first part of the northern winter, but it doesn’t yet give a picture of how the rest of the cold season will play out. It’s here that the spot pricing comes into play, and this is pointing to a weak back-end of winter. The spot price for cargoes delivered to Asia was $8.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week ended Jan. 11. It has been trending down since a minor early winter peak of $10.90 per mmBtu in the week to Nov. 16, and is well below the summer-high of $11.60, reached in the week to June 15. The spot price is usually for deliveries of around four to eight weeks in advance, so the current price reflects cargoes that will arrive in February. It’s worth noting that the $10.90 reached in mid-November reflected cargoes delivered in December, when demand reached an all-time high in Northeast Asia. SUPPLY FACTORS The fact that even this strong demand couldn’t spark a sustained rally in prices shows that it’s more likely ample supply is playing a greater role than demand. This view is supported by spot prices for March delivery, at around $8.30 per mmBtu, being weaker than those for February. There is usually a sharp drop in spot LNG prices as winter ends and the market enters the lower-demand shoulder season of spring, and the strength of any summer recovery is largely dependent on how hot the weather is, as this drives power demand for air-conditioning. The fact that the winter rally in LNG prices didn’t materialise, even in the face of solid demand growth, raises the possibility of a weaker-than-usual first-half. The market narrative of LNG has swung in recent months from one of an expected oversupply on the back of a raft of new projects mainly in Australia and the United States, to a consensus that strong demand growth in Asia will lead to a deficit in coming years, unless new ventures are sanctioned. However, while this view may well be correct from a longer-term perspective, it doesn’t preclude the possibility of short- to medium-term periods where supply exceeds demand. This may be the situation for the next few months as the spot market struggles to absorb the extra supply from projects that came online in 2018. These include two Australian projects in Inpex’s 8.9 million tonnes per annum Icythys venture and Royal Dutch Shell’s Prelude floating plant, as well as Dominion’s Cove Point and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi projects in the United States. While the longer-term outlook for LNG demand growth appears to be rosy once again, the market may have little bouts of indigestion every now and again, as it has to absorb the lumpy nature of supply additions.
Oilfield auction deadline deferred for second time: DGH
The government has deferred for the second time the deadline for submission of bids in the auction of 25 oil and gas fields that hold resources worth an estimated Rs 1 lakh crore, upstream regulator DGH said. The second round of Discovered Small Fields (DSF) auction opened in August, and December 18 was the original deadline for submission of bids. This was deferred by a month to January 18 and now, it has again been deferred without intimating a new deadline. “The last date of bid submission for Discovered Small Field Round-II is extended. The revised date will be intimated later,” the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) said on its website. In 2016, the government brought in a new DSF policy wherein ‘idle’ small discovered fields of state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Ltd (OIL) were taken away from them and auctioned to private players on liberalised terms including marketing and pricing freedom and lower taxes. ONGC and OIL say they have not been able to develop the fields due to their small size, and the current capped prices are making their development unviable. Private companies will, however, get full pricing and marketing freedom. Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan had last month told Parliament that ONGC had spent Rs 12,826 crore and OIL another Rs 224.27 crore on the 115 oil and gas discoveries that were taken away from them by the government for auctioning to private companies under DSF bid rounds. Under the DSF bid round-I in 2017, 67 discoveries, mostly of ONGC, were auctioned, while in the second round, another 48 finds are being auctioned. ONGC and OIL are not compensated for the amount they had spent on discoveries of these oil and gas reserves. Unlike state-owned firms, the private players are allowed pricing and marketing freedom to make these discoveries viable. The two state-owned firms have previously stated that they could not produce from the discoveries as they are uneconomically at current cap prices. The 67 discoveries under the DSF bid round-I are estimated to have in place reserves of 86 million tonne of oil and gas equivalent. In DSF-II, the 48 discoveries of ONGC and OIL offered for bid are estimated to have in place reserves of 163.08 million tonne of oil and gas equivalent. When the DSF bid round-II was launched in August 2018, Pradhan had said the fields hold resources worth Rs 1 lakh crore. Some of these resources would translate into higher revenue for the government by way of increased royalty paid on production, taxes and profit petroleum. He had expected the government getting as much as Rs 45,000 crore in royalty, taxes and profit petroleum over the life of the fields. In DSF-II, 59 discoveries have been clubbed into 25 contract areas spread over 3,042 square km and eight sedimentary basins. The fields are being offered in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Kutch and Cambay shallow waters, Mumbai offshore, Assam and Tripura, Mahanadi shallow water, Andhra Pradesh onland and KG offshore. In the DSF round-I, Rs 34,600 crore of resources were bid out. A total of 134 bids were received for 34 blocks out of 46 on offer. The government is expecting a revenue of Rs 9,000 crore from the fields bid out in DSF-I, with first oil expected in 2020. DGH officials said the main features of DSF-II include a single licence for exploitation of both conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon, prior technical experience not a pre-qualification criterion, no upfront signature bonus and full pricing and marketing freedom. Royalty rates have been reduced to 7.5 per cent from 10 per cent for offshore blocks.
Petronas in talks to buy a majority stake in Amplus Energy
Malaysia’s state-owned oil and gas company, Petroliam Nasional Berhad, or Petronas, is in talks with New York-based I Squared Capital to buy a majority stake in Amplus Energy Solutions Pvt. Ltd, one of India’s largest rooftop solar power producers, in a potential deal worth about ₹27 billion, said two people aware of the development. Global oil giants are looking to diversify and invest in India’s emerging green economy as the conventional hydrocarbon space undergoes technological disruptions. Norway’s Statoil ASA, France’s Total SA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc have also shown interest in investing in Amplus that has set up 350 megawatts of capacity across India. Russia’s OAO Rosneft, the world’s largest publicly-traded oil firm, has also been exploring opportunities in India’s solar energy sector. “The talks are on for Petronas to acquire a majority stake in Amplus,” said the first person, requesting anonymity. Another person, who also did not want to be named, confirmed the development. In the renewable energy business, the biggest expense is the cost of capital. And, the financial heft of global oil majors may help India’s clean energy sector. Distributed renewable energy generation is attracting strong investor interest as the market has few developers with large portfolios. Warburg Pincus LLC, the New York-based private equity firm, in 2017 announced a $100 million investment in rooftop solar developer CleanMax Solar. Of India’s plan to add 100 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacity by 2022, it has targeted 40GW from rooftop projects. Founded in 2010, Amplus counts India Yamaha Motor Pvt. Ltd, Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd, Walmart India Pvt. Ltd, Hilton Hotels Corp. and Gurgaon-based Vatika Group among its clients, which are trying to cut their energy costs by harnessing the sun. “I regret to say that Amplus Energy Solutions does not comment on market speculations,” said an external spokesperson for Amplus in an emailed response to queries. I Squared Capital, an infrastructure-focused private equity firm, invested $150 million in the company in April 2015. Amplus has grown its portfolio through both greenfield projects and acquisitions. It acquired US solar power developer SunEdison’s rooftop solar power assets in India. While I Squared Capital holds over a 90% stake in Amplus, the balance is held by the management team led by Amplus founder, managing director and chief executive officer Sanjeev Aggarwal. Queries emailed to Gautam Bhandari, founder of I Squared Capital, managing director Andreas Moon and India head Harsh Agrawal on 11 January remained unanswered. India’s renewable energy space has been growing. The government says the country is ranked fifth globally in terms of installed renewable energy capacity. As of 31 October, India had an installed renewable energy capacity of 73.35GW. Also, 101.83 billion units of electricity were generated in 2017-18 from renewable energy sources. While the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has plans to bid 60GW capacity of solar energy and 20GW capacity of wind energy by March 2020, concerns that have marred the conventional power generation sector have now started emerging in the green energy space, with questions being raised about asset quality. A case in point is Moody’s Investors Service downgrading the rating outlook of Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd (Ireda) to negative from stable, on Tuesday. “The rating actions take into account the deterioration in Ireda’s financial performance, due to an increase in problem assets, as well as a significant decline in profitability, driven by certain changes in accounting norms,” Moody’s said in a statement. Moody’s downgrade is significant as Ireda is the nodal agency for the government’s ambitious clean energy initiatives such as the rooftop solar power programme and generation-based incentive scheme for wind and solar power projects, among others. Founded in 2012 by former Morgan Stanley executives, I Squared Capital focuses on energy, utilities and transport in North America, Europe and high-growth economies. In India, I Squared Capital has so far set up two platforms—Cube Highways, a roads and highways platform; and Amplus Energy Solutions, which builds rooftop solar projects. Mint had reported on 4 December about I Squared Capital creating a new renewable assets platform that will acquire and develop utility-scale projects.
HPCL unlikely to partner Total for LPG cavern in Mangalore
The planned LPG cavern in Mangalore will be the second such facility in India, after the HPCL-Total operated one in Vizag, and will cost ₹10 billion. State-run Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd (HPCL) may build its second liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cavern in Mangalore, Karnataka, said two company officials, requesting anonymity. HPCL is planning to build an underground LPG storage facility and had been in talks with France’s national oil company, Total SA, to partner it. Total SA is also HPCL’s partner in the first LPG cavern in Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh. “We are working on the plan for the LPG cavern. There is a possibility that we may be building it alone,” said a senior official from HPCL. The cavern will be the second such facility in India and will cost ₹10 billion. HPCL already has an LPG import facility in Mangalore. HPCL did not reply to an email query by Mint on Monday. The second HPCL official said that looking at the growing demand for LPG, a new cavern is a commercially viable option. The facility at Mangalore will be exclusively used by HPCL and may have a capacity of over 60,000 ton. “Our board has approved the project. We now need to begin the process of obtaining technical and environmental clearances.” HPCL and Total SA, through their joint venture South Asia LPG (SALPG), operate a 60,000 ton underground LPG storage facility in Visakhapatnam, which was commissioned in 2007 at an investment of ₹3.33 billion. On its website, HPCL said that its cavern at Visakhapatnam has been dug in rock to store LPG. The storage facility is made up of two caverns of 19 metres in height, 20 metres base width and 160 metres in length with inter-connections. Besides being safe from natural calamities and hazards such as sabotage and aerial bombings, the caverns are leak- and fire-proof. The second official quoted above added that HPCL may commence the project this calendar year and complete it within the next four years. HPCL is the second largest LPG marketer in India. Last fiscal year, the company had clocked LPG sales growth of 8.5%. It also maintained market leadership in the non-domestic bulk LPG segment with over 48% market share. According to sector analysts, the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana(PMUY) has increased demand for LPG in India. Last month, the government expanded the ambit of PMUY to all poor households and has a target of reaching out to 80 million families by 2020.
Reliance, Chevron and Total join London-based oil blockchain platform Vakt
Oil majors Chevron and Total, along with major Indian refiner Reliance Industries, have joined the blockchain-based platform Vakt, London-based Vakt said on Tuesday. Vakt, already in use by other major trading firms since the end of last year, is the first of many blockchain pilot schemes for commodities trading to go live. The firm was created in 2017 by a consortium that includes oil majors BP and Royal Dutch Shell, Norway’s Equinor, global energy trading firms Mercuria Energy Group and Koch Supply and Trading, as well as Gunvor Group. Its original shareholders began using the system in November, starting for North Sea crude oil trading. Banks ABN Amro, ING and Societe Generale are other shareholders. Blockchain, the platform behind cryptocurrency Bitcoin, is viewed by many as a solution to trade and settlement inefficiencies, as well as a way to improve transparency and reduce the risk of fraud. Vakt digitises and centralises what was previously a mountain of paperwork shared between all the parties involved in each deal. “Total has been supporting industry initiatives to digitise cargo post-trade processes for some time,” Total’s head of trading and shipping Thomas Waymel said in a statement. “We view them as a major step forward towards safer, faster and cheaper logistical operations. We are committed to contribute to the roll out to various markets of the VAKT blockchain platform.”
Cabinet approves Rs 22,594-crore Numaligarh refinery expansion project
The government on Wednesday approved a capacity expansion plan for Numaligarh refinery in Assam from the existing 3 million metric tonne per annum (MMTPA) to 9 MMTPA at an estimated cost of Rs 22,594 crore. The project is to be completed within a period of 48 months after the approval and receipt of statutory clearances, Union minister Piyush Goyal told reporters while briefing reporters here. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, gave its approval to the project for expansion of Numligarh Refinery Assam with capacity to be expanded from 3 MMTPA to 9 MMTPA. The expansion project involves setting up crude oil pipeline from Paradip to Numaligarh and product pipeline from Numaligarh to Siliguri at a cost of Rs 22,594 crore, he said.
China natural gas imports to rise 14% y-o-y to 143 bcm in 2019
* China’s natural gas imports are expected to rise 14 pct y/y to 143 bcm in 2019, said the think-tank at China’s largest energy producer, China National Petroleum Corp, on Wednesday * China’s apparent oil demand is expected to rise 6.9 pct y/y to 668 mln tonnes in 2019, CNPC said * China’s refinery throughput is forecast to rise 4.7 pct y/y to 634 mln tonnes in 2019, it said * China’s crude oil output is forecast at 189 mln tonnes in 2019, flat with 2018 * China’s net crude oil imports expected to rise 9.8 pct y/y to 694.3 mln tonnes in 2019 * China’s gasoline demand forecast to rise 3.6 pct y/y to 131.9 mln tonnes in 2019 * China’s diesel demand forecast to fall 1.1 pct y/y to 158 mln tonnes in 2019 * China’s kerosene demand to rise 9.5 pct y/y to 40.3 mln tonnes in 2019 * China’s total fuel demand to rise 1.9 pct y/y to 330.2 mln tonnes in 2019 * China’s total fuel exports forecast to rise 18.8 pct y/y to 48.6 mln tonnes in 2019 * China’s natural gas consumption to rise 11.4 pct y/y to 308 bcm in 2019 * China’s natural gas output expected to rise 8.6 pct y/y to 170.8 bcm in 2019
US oil output to rise to 12.9 million bpd in 2020
Crude oil output from the United States is expected to rise to a new record of more than 12 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and to climb to nearly 13 million bpd next year, the US Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday in its first 2020 forecast. US crude production is forecast to climb 1.14 million bpd to 12.07 million bpd in 2019 and an additional 790,000 bpd in 2020 to 12.86 million bpd, the statistics arm of the US Energy Department said in a monthly report. The United States has become the world’s largest crude producer, boosted by output from shale formations, with production of nearly 11 million barrels in 2018, which broke the country’s annual record set in 1970. “Steady growth from non-OPEC countries, including the United States, headlines the forecast for global crude oil production through 2020,” Linda Capuano, EIA administrator said in comments issued following the forecast. “We expect the United States to remain the world’s largest producer.” The forecast indicates that the US will become a net crude exporter in late 2020. US demand for diesel and other distillate fuels is expected to rise 20,000 bpd to 4.15 million bpd in 2019 and to rise to 4.19 million in 2020, the agency said. US gasoline demand in 2018 was seen at 9.29 million bpd, down from 9.31 million bpd previously. Gasoline demand is expected to rise to 9.35 million bpd in 2019 and to hold that level in 2020, the EIA said.
India to buy $5 billion oil, gas from US & spend $18 billion in defence
India has committed to purchase USD 5 billion worth of oilNSE -0.14 % and gas from the US per annum and USD 18 billion worth of defence equipment that are under implementation, a top Indian diplomat here said, highlighting the growing bilateral trade cooperation. The US export to India has gone up by at least 30 per cent, India’s Ambassador to the US Harsh Vardhan Shringla told the American business community, his first major public engagement Tuesday. In the last two years, the bilateral trade has increased from USD 119 billion to USD 140 billion, he said. At a reception hosted in his honour by the US-India Business Council (USIBC), Shringla said India has been sourcing and buying much more from the US than ever in the past. In the field of oil and gas alone, he said, India has committed to purchase USD 5 billion from the US every year. Commercial Indian airlines, Shringla said, have placed orders of 300 airplanes worth USD 40 billion. “We’re looking at importing products that we’ve never bought from the US before,” he said, adding that some of the consumer products from the US are increasing in demand in India. In the defense sector, India is looking at USD 18 billion worth of orders that are under implementation. Not only this, the large number of Indian students – numbering 227,000 currently – contribute USD 6.5 billion to the American academic sector, Shringla said, giving an example towards India’s contribution to the US economy. Addressing representatives from the American corporate sector, he said that the progress made by India and the US in the last few years has been unparalleled. “What amazes me is that in the last few years, the amount of progress that our relationship has made is unparalleled in many senses. The United States is India’s largest trading partner. We are among the top 10 trading partners in terms of sheer volume of business,” Shringla said. Referring to the pro-business initiatives of the Indian government, the Indian Ambassador urged the American corporate sector to take benefit of the new business-friendly atmosphere in India and invest in the country. In his remarks, the US Chambers of Commerce president Tom Donohue said there are many issues in common, many challenges that the two countries have to deal with collectively. “Our promise (is that) we will put all the attention and energy it takes to make this relationship successful,” Donohue said. The US-India relationship has gone from being a bilateral relationship to be both global and local, USIBC president Nisha Desai Biswal said, observing that the two countries have boundless opportunities in partnership. “We’re partnering across the Indo-Pacific. But we’re also deepening the ties between our cities and states. In fact, throughout the year, you will see more and more engagement between our states in our cities, more and more governors, mayors going to India, chief ministers and legislators coming here,” said Biswal, the former Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia. Noting that the US-India relationship is strong, Indian-American Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi said it transcends politics and is getting stronger.