Lenders make a beeline for IOC loan blockbuster
State-owned Indian Oil Corporation bumped up its latest five-year borrowing to $1.7 billion, its largest offshore loan on record, following an overwhelming response from lenders despite seemingly tight pricing. A total of 17 lenders joined mandated lead arrangers and bookrunners State Bank of India and Westpac on the deal, in a rare example of a widely syndicated loan for an Indian state-owned entity. The timing of IOC’s latest loan and the richer pricing it offered than that of its previous borrowing proved to be the big draws. “We didn’t have many other choices due to the lack of the deal flow at the end of last year and we would like to book some assets in the first half of this year to meet our target returns,” said a senior loan banker at a Taiwanese bank. For a loan that offered a top-level all-in pricing of 114bp based on an interest margin of 100bp over Libor and an average life of 4.75 years, the successful outcome is a feather in the cap for the borrower and the leads. “While the pricing is still tight, it’s more generous compared to IOC’s previous visit to the loan market in 2017,” said a loans banker at a top-tier Taiwanese bank. “Overall, we consider those state oil-and-gas companies from India as strong credits, and we’ve been lending to those assets in the past few years.” In December 2017, IOC had paid a top-level all-in of 91bp based on a margin of 70bp over Libor for a $300 million five-year borrowing (with the same average life of 4.75 years). That deal reset the benchmark for offshore loans from India’s energy sector at the lowest all-in pricing on record for that tenor since the 2008 global financial crisis. However, that loan attracted only four lenders other than original MLAB Bank of Nova Scotia, with Export Development of Canada taking up $165 million of the facility. Indian state-owned oil and gas companies have scaled back their offshore borrowings, including bilateral facilities, in recent years, from $7.28 billion in 2017 to $4.12 billion in 2017 and just $2.15 billion last year. However, in 2019, the tally could go higher again following the Reserve Bank of India’s relaxation of rules on external commercial borrowings (ECBs) for companies from that sector last October. Indian state-owned oil marketing companies can now raise up to $ 10 billion combined through ECBs for working capital purposes with minimum average maturities of three to five years without the need for regulatory approval. The RBI has also waived the individual limit of $ 750 million-equivalent per financial year and the mandatory hedging requirements. CONTRASTING FORTUNES IOC’s syndication success also stands in stark contrast to State Bank of India’s $500 million five-year loan, which closed in early February to a tepid response despite paying higher pricing. Only four banks joined SBI’s loan, which offered much richer top-level all-in pricing of 128bp based on a margin of 115bp over Libor and an average life of 4.625 years. Market participants attributed the lacklustre response on SBI’s loan to deal fatigue given how frequently India’s largest bank has borrowed in the offshore markets in the last few years. “There’s too much SBI paper in the market,” said a Singapore-based syndicated loans banker close to the deal. “But we are happy to close the deal with some banks as opposed to none.” Like IOC, SBI also had to pay up for its most recent borrowing. Last July, the Indian bank closed a US$750m three-year loan with the nine MLABs failing to bring in any lenders in general syndication. That deal had offered a top-level all-in pricing of 90bp based on a margin of 70bp over Libor and a 2.6-year remaining life.
India’s diesel demand to hit record highs in 2019 as country goes to polls
India’s diesel consumption may rise to a record this year on increasing infrastructure spending by the current government as it tries to hold off challengers in general elections that will be held over April and May. Surging diesel consumption in India, the world’s third-largest oil user, underscores the country’s importance as a driver of global oil demand. Amid increasing concerns that crude demand growth may slip in 2019 because of slowing economic growth, India’s burgeoning fuel consumption may help underpin oil and fuel prices. Analysts at Fitch Solutions and consultants Wood Mackenzie forecast India’s diesel demand to rise in 2019 by 5.7 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively, from 2018. The country consumed a record 6.9 million tonnes of diesel a month in 2018, or about 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd), data from the Ministry of Petroleum showed. “There is strong energy demand which is bound to happen because of different sectors… We are a diesel driven economy,” said Sanjiv Singh, chairman of Indian Oil Corp, the country’s top refiner.India’s diesel consumption may rise to a record this year on increasing infrastructure spending by the current government as it tries to hold off challengers in general elections that will be held over April and May. Surging diesel consumption in India, the world’s third-largest oil user, underscores the country’s importance as a driver of global oil demand. Amid increasing concerns that crude demand growth may slip in 2019 because of slowing economic growth, India’s burgeoning fuel consumption may help underpin oil and fuel prices. Analysts at Fitch Solutions and consultants Wood Mackenzie forecast India’s diesel demand to rise in 2019 by 5.7 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively, from 2018. The country consumed a record 6.9 million tonnes of diesel a month in 2018, or about 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd), data from the Ministry of Petroleum showed. “There is strong energy demand which is bound to happen because of different sectors… We are a diesel driven economy,” said Sanjiv Singh, chairman of Indian Oil Corp, the country’s top refiner. “The bottom-line remains that energy demand is bound to grow. We’re seeing GDP at more than 7 per cent, (and) … a lot of urbanization,” Singh added. India’s economy is expected to grow by 7.2 per cent in the 2018/2019 financial year, which runs from April to March, versus 6.7 per cent the previous year, according to government data. “Tied to a constructive GDP outlook – and alongside the country’s positive demographics, low vehicle penetration and loose monetary policy – is our forecast for rapid growth in vehicle sales, which again will be positive for diesel,” said Peter Lee, an analyst at Fitch Solutions, adding that diesel cars account for nearly a quarter of new vehicles in India. According to 2015 data, the latest available, from the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, India held 22 cars per 1,000 people versus 821 cars per 1,000 people in the United States. ELECTION BOOM Election rallies, the deployment of polling officers and security officers will add to the diesel demand boost from infrastructure projects that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party have planned ahead of the polls. The country’s interim budget unveiled earlier this month allocated 190 billion rupees ($2.67 billion) for building roads in the countryside, where two-thirds of Indians live. “Increased travel activity for campaigning and implementation of infrastructure projects ahead of the elections will bolster diesel demand in the first half of 2019,” said Aman Verma, a research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. During the last general elections in 2014, monthly diesel sales averaged 6.2 million tonnes during the polling months, 7 per cent higher than the monthly average sales that year. The implementation of a nationwide goods and services tax (GST) has also been beneficial for diesel demand. “The GST has led to the removal of interstate taxes. This is a structural shift, resulting in increased demand for heavy and medium-duty trucks to achieve economies of scale and operational efficiency,” Wood Mackenzie’s Verma said. Indian sales of commercial vehicles, which largely run on diesel, rose to a record last year, and Jan. 2019 sales climbed to 87,600, a record high for this time of the year, according to data on Refinitiv Eikon. India’s diesel expansion will likely continue despite rising air pollution concerns, especially in the capital of New Delhi. The country’s fuel standards have improved, removing much of the sulphur from the diesel pool. By April, the New Delhi capital region will adopt the so-called Bharat VI standard that is equal to the most stringent European standard, which the rest of the country will adopt next year. Diesel consumption also faces increasing competition from electric vehicles (EV). The Indian government has set a target of EVs making up 30 per cent of new car and motorcycle sales by 2030 from less than 1 per cent today. At the moment though EVs are not making much of an impact in India. Electric car sales actually declined by 40 per cent to a mere 1,200 units in financial year 2018 over financial year 2017, although electric two-wheeler sales rose 138 per cent to 54,800 units during the same period, according to Wood Mackenzie.
IGL selects Genesis Gas Solutions for prepaid metering system
Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) has selected Genesis Gas Solutions for the roll-out of its prepaid smart gas metering system. This is the first time that this technology is being deployed by any city gas distribution company in the country. The new smart metres supplied by Genesis Gas Solutions in partnership with Tata Communications’ LoRaWAN Internet of Things (IoT) network will enable customers to monitor their gas use more accurately in real-time against available credit and pave the way for greater operational efficiency for IGL. Tata Communications already has an established the IoT network in Delhi NCR, which has now been extended to Rewari. With low energy consumption of LoRaWAN, smart metres for gas usage can be installed independent from the main power source – with a battery life of up to 10 years. This has helped IGL overcome some of the key limitations of using existing post-paid technology solutions such as locked premises, estimated/wrong billing, reversal of bills and tampering of metres. As the first stage of deployment, 5,000 prepaid smart gas metres have been installed in Rewari. IGL’s Managing Director E.S. Ranganathan said: “By implementing this smart metering solution, we have been able to eliminate human errors caused by manual metre reading, optimise capacity planning and improve cash flows.” V S Shridhar, Senior Vice President and Head for IoT at Tata Communications, said technology advancements such as IoT are laying the foundation of Digital India and the future is smart. “Smart metering is gathering pace in the energy market, boosting efficiencies and enhancing customer experience.” Tata Communications is building the foundation for IoT in India with the world’s largest IoT network, spanning nearly 2,000 communities and touching over 400 million people. The company has rolled out the LoRaWAN network in 45 cities, with more cities planned for implementation over the next two years.
IGL adding record number of PNG users this fiscal
Indrapastha Gas Ltd is on track to add over 0.2 million new piped natural gas (PNG) connections this fiscal. This will be the highest number of piped gas connections disbursed by the gas retailer in a year. Rapid rise “We will be closing the current financial year with the highest ever number of new connections added in a year. This year there will be 0.210 million new connections. Till now nearly 0.178 million new connections have been disbursed and we are adding 900-1,000 connections every day,” Indraprastha Gas MD ES Ranganathan told BusinessLine. As of December 2018, IGL had 1.029 million residential consumers and 4,095 industrial or commercial customers, and the company reported a consumption of 403 million standard cubic meters of natural gas by its PNG consumers. Under IGL’s current sales volume mix, Compressed Natural Gas (for vehicles) accounts for 75 per cent of the total while commercial and industrial units command 11 per cent. Sales to other city gas distribution companies account for 8 per cent and residential consumers, just 6 per cent. But IGL has been assured allocation of domestic natural gas from the Centre to meet the entire needs of the CNG and PNG domestic segments. Attractive proposal The lower price of domestic gas makes the economics of switching to gas more attractive, driving growth in the domestic segments of CNG and PNG. On an average, domestically produced gas is sold at half the price of imported gas, or even lesser. IGL has also formed a long-term contract for regasified LNG to meet the piped natural gas (industrial and commercial) demand. It is also buying short-term gas from the open market. “On an average, every household consumes 0.34 kg of gas per day. The total incremental gas demand this year will be 60,000 cubic meters per day,” Ranganathan said.
China to produce 30 bcm of biogas, replace coal in rural regions
* China set a target to produce 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of biogas from agricultural waste and manure by 2030 and reduce coal consumption in rural regions by 50 million tonnes, the state planner said on its website on Friday * Efforts to produce biogas will help China meet its growing requirement for natural gas and cut the country’s demand for liquified natural gas imports, the state planner said
Even China may not be able to soak up all 2019’s new LNG: Russell
Not even China’s voracious appetite for liquefied natural gas may be enough to absorb the additional supplies hitting the market this year, with the price of the super-chilled fuel potentially a casualty. While China’s LNG imports got off to a rollicking start in 2019, it’s unlikely that will match the 41-percent growth experienced in 2018. Imports were 6.58 million tonnes in January, a record-high and up 27.8 percent from the same month in 2018, according to customs data released on Feb. 23. But the sharp rise in January imports is likely to unwind in coming months as much of the LNG is being used in coal-to-natural gas switching projects that run out of steam as the northern winter ends. Some 3 million Chinese homes were switching from coal heating to natural gas this winter, boosting demand for LNG. However, this demand drops sharply after the winter heating period ends on March 15. China will likely increase its LNG demand by about 8 million tonnes in 2019, Nicholas Browne, director of Asia gas and LNG at consultants Wood Mackenzie, told the LNGgc Asia conference in Singapore this week. While other analysts at the event were somewhat more optimistic about the prospect for increased demand from China, none were forecasting that the 15.7 million tonne jump seen in 2018 from 2017 would be repeated. The problem for the LNG market is that it’s likely that more than 30 million tonnes of additional LNG supply will be available in 2019. Poten & Partners head of business intelligence Jason Feer told the LNGgc Asia event that his company expected 33 million tonnes of new supply in 2019, but only 16 million tonnes of extra demand. Wood Mackenzie’s Browne said a total of about 70 million tonnes of new LNG would reach the market this year and next, driven by the full ramp-up of the last of the eight new Australian plants and by the start of new U.S. projects, including Kinder Morgan’s Elba Island and Sempra’s Cameron venture. LONG-TERM GOOD, SHORT-TERM BAD While the demand outlook over the next few years suggests that the new LNG supply will eventually be absorbed, the problem for the industry is 2019, and possibly part of 2020. While there is some potential for India and other emerging buyers in Asia to take more of the fuel, the outlook for traditional big buyers Japan and South Korea is more muted. Increasing nuclear generation in Japan is likely to result in lower LNG imports, although it will keep its status as the top buyer for several years yet. Energy policy in South Korea is now heavily tilted toward renewables, and the country has already lost second spot among LNG importers to a surging China. Overall, it seems unlikely that Asia will be able to absorb all the new LNG capacity coming to the market this year. It’s possible that demand could be boosted if prices weaken further, but there are also limitations to how much extra the major importers would want to buy, especially in the weak demand periods between the winter and summer peaks. The spot price of LNG in Asia has dropped to $6.20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the lowest in 17 months and down 47 percent from the 2018 peak of $11.60 in June. If low prices fail to spark a significant uptick in Asian demand, it makes it likely that cargoes will have to be diverted to Europe, especially those from major exporters Qatar and the United States. In Europe, LNG can displace Russian pipeline gas, if the price is right, and it may just be getting low enough. Russia’s Gazprom expects to receive the equivalent of about $6.40 per mmBtu for piped natural gas to Europe in 2019. This means that U.S. and Qatari producers are just as likely to ship to Europe as to Asia, especially if Gazprom chooses not to compete on price and rather gives up market share, most likely taking the view that the LNG oversupply is a temporary phenomenon.
Oman signs oil agreement with Occidental Oman for Block 72: Ministry twitter
Oman signed an exploration and production-sharing agreement with Occidental Oman, its oil and gas ministry said in tweet on Thursday. Block 72 occupies an area of 3,530 square km, the ministry said. In December, Oman signed two agreements giving Occidental Petroleum the rights to explore for oil and natural gas in concessions 51 and 65.
No gas? No votes. Subsidy cuts imperil Ukraine leader’s reelection bid
Ukrainian pensioner Nadiya Ignatiy says she has had the plum and cherry trees in her garden cut down for firewood since the government raised gas prices late last year. In next month’s election, she will vote against President Petro Poroshenko in favour of an opponent who has pledged to restore the gas subsidies that were scaled back to secure an international bailout. “We cleared the garden,” she said in her house in the village of Skryhalivka, 80 km (50 miles) southwest of Kiev. “Not just me, other people are doing it now… previously you could heat with gas but now it’s a problem.” Such frustrations could tip the balance in the March 31 election against Poroshenko, whose market-oriented reforms have helped stabilise a country battling Russian-backed separatism and encouraged Western investors wary of pervasive corruption. Poroshenko was elected in 2014 after protests ousted a Kremlin-friendly president and sent the government and the West on a collision course with Russia: Russia annexed Crimea and supported the overthrow of government rule in eastern Ukraine. An influential businessman who had made a fortune from confectionery, he pledged to take the ex-Soviet country out of Russia’s orbit and restore control over the east in a matter of weeks. The latter has not happened, but he has overseen an uneasy stalemate with separatist-held regions and ended a steep recession, with around 3.4 percent growth last year. Living standards, however, have continued to decline. The average monthly wage has dropped the equivalent of almost $80 since 2013 and Ukrainians need more than three times as many local hryvnia to buy a dollar as they did then. Inflation peaked at 43 percent in 2015 and the price of a cubic meter of gas is almost 12 times what it was in 2013. Since the revolution, “nothing has changed substantially for the better,” said Nadiya Yurchenko, 79, who hoped for a higher pension, heating allowance and better healthcare as well as peace with Russia when she voted for Poroshenko in 2014. Poroshenko won the first round outright in 2014, but many polls have shown the election frontrunner this time to be Yulia Tymoshenko, a former prime minister and fiery campaigner who compares the gas price rise to “genocide”. Another candidate who has surged in February is comic actor Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a political novice and largely an unknown quantity. “For the IMF and most of Ukraine’s western partners, Poroshenko is a lesser evil, he is an acceptable partner,” said analyst Volodymyr Fesenko. However, “with their requirement for raising the price of gas and utility tariffs, the IMF paradoxically ends up giving political help to those whom it fears”, he said. CORRUPTION ISSUE Subsidised gas for households is a source of corruption in Ukraine because businesses divert it for their own use to avoid paying market prices, draining money from the state budget. The IMF, which has lent $14.7 billion to Ukraine since April 2014, has made gradually bringing household tariffs in line with market prices a condition for more funding. When gas prices were hiked in November, Poroshenko said there had been no choice. “The government was caught between the bad and the very bad, between tariff increases and a blow to macroeconomic stability.” IMF country head Gosta Ljungman has said price controls were ineffective at providing social protection, and led to overconsumption and corruption, while liberalising the market meant richer households paid more, freeing cash for poorer ones. “The most optimal approach is to give markets the right to determine the price, and then to provide well-focused subsidies to those who need them most,” Ljungman told Ukrainian news site FinClub this month in comments his office referred Reuters to. Government officials were not immediately available to comment on why some of the poorest Ukrainian households were not getting help to adjust to the new prices. Price rises are among voters’ main concerns and gas prices came out top in an opinion poll by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology in October and early November, when Poroshenko slipped from second into third place behind Tymoshenko and Zelenskiy. Poroshenko moved back to second place after Ukraine’s Orthodox Church won independence from the Russian Church in January and the government plans pension increases on Friday that his opponents say are designed to bolster his ratings. But Fesenko said any gains may be offset by the arrival this month of the first higher gas bills and then those for other utilities. Tymoshenko and other candidates like Yuriy Boyko, a former energy minister popular mainly in Ukraine’s Russian-speaking east, have used rising prices to attack the president. Tempers flared at a lawmakers’ meeting on Monday when Tymoshenko accused Poroshenko and his associates of funnelling money gained from the price rises to offshore bank accounts, an allegation swiftly denied by the leader of Poroshenko’s faction. After a Feb. 16 meeting with Tymoshenko, IMF chief Christine Lagarde stressed the urgency for Ukraine to continue reforms and safeguard its return to economic stability. Tymoshenko says she wants to keep cooperation with the IMF but change the terms of the deal. She has also promised sharp hikes in salaries and pensions and to change central bank policy to provide cheap loans to small businesses. How she would act on those promises if she wins is unclear, but it is enough to make many investors uncomfortable. Poroshenko helped build foreign direct investment back up to $4.4 billion in 2016, but it fell to $1.87 billion in 2017 amid concern about Ukraine’s finances, far off the $5.46 billion under former president Victor Yanukovich. “The threat that cooperation with the IMF will be disrupted, and the threat that the country will again return to the prospect of default, is much higher if other candidates win,” said Serhiy Fursa, a Kiev-based investment banker at Dragon Capital. Shoring up state finances means little to voters left out of pocket. Liubov Spychak, 73-year pensioner from the town of Cherkasy, fought back tears as she described how expensive it had become to heat
Softer crude to pull petrochemical prices down in 2019: CRISIL
A slowdown in global demand is likely to keep crude oil prices under check in 2019 which, in turn, would hurt petrochemical prices, according to research and ratings agency CRISIL. “We expect the prices to range $63-$68 per barrel in 2019, considering the impact of any production cuts from the OPEC to arrest a further decline in crude oil prices, which are currently hovering at $60 per barrel. Naphtha prices are expected to decline at a similar pace as those of oil prices,” the agency said in a report. In 2018, crude oil prices increased 31 per cent to $71 per barrel, with naphtha prices increasing at a similar pace. The ongoing tensions in Libya, sanctions on Iran and falling output from Venezuela has resulted in a spike in crude oil prices. Petrochemical prices increased in 2018, too, because of a rise in feedstock prices but higher capacity addition put a brake on the pace of rise. Rising global supply is also exerting downward pressure on petrochemical prices, with demand momentum not keeping pace. “With softening crude oil prices, increasing global supply, lower forecasts for global economic growth, and US-China trade war, petrochemical prices could see some trouble ahead. This decline in product prices is also likely to have a direct impact on cracker margins and product spreads,” CRISIL said. Demand for petrochemicals is linked to the gross domestic product growth, as petrochemicals find application in most of the key end-user sectors, such as automobiles, consumer durables, construction and irrigation. With the International Monetary Fund cutting its forecasts for global economic growth in 2019 to 3.5 per cent, global demand for petrochemicals is likely to get impacted. For India, the volume growth of petrochemicals over the next two years is likely to remain healthy, growing 7-9 per cent. However, capacity addition in the global market, subsequent competition from imports, and lower crude oil prices restrict the ability of domestic players to keep product prices high. With cracker margins coming under pressure, profitability of players could shrink as compared to the strong margin growth in the past two years.
ONGC to pay over Rs 220 cr in arrears to Mumbai Port Trust on pipelines way leave fees
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd (ONGC), weighed down by the government-directed acquisition of HPCL in 2018, is piling up further agony after the rate regulator for major port trusts approved a proposal brought by the Mumbai Port Trust to levy special way leave fees on ONGC pipelines passing through port limits and rent for a land parcel, including arrears of over Rs 220 crore. The Tariff Authority for Major Ports (TAMP), the rate regulator for the 11 major port trusts, had separately ordered ONGC in October 2018 to pay arrears of Rs 173.69 crore to Mumbai Port Trust as wharfage compensation for transportation of crude oil and gas from the Mumbai High field to the Uran terminal through pipelines it had laid within the limits of the state-run port. ONGC laid the pipelines for crude oil and gas evacuation from Mumbai High to the Uran plant in 1978. About 19.5 km of these pipelines pass through the limits of Mumbai Port Trust. ONGC paid the special way leave fees and land rent to Mumbai Port Trust on 11 pipelines and one parcel of land at Jawahar Dweep till 2014, after which the payment was discontinued by the state-run oil explorer, citing the levy did not have the backing of TAMP. ONGC further said it would not make the payment till Mumbai Port Trust secured TAMP’s approval for the levy. ONGC also contended that the pipelines are laid under the seabed and far off from operational areas of the port, thereby not impacting other developmental activities of the port. Besides, Mumbai Port Trust was not rendering any service to the pipelines. Hence, ONGC was of the view that the “Mumbai Port Trust should not levy any way leave charges on ONGC”. “The way leave charge is a levy, levied for the use of the property of the port within the port limits. In the instant case, the way leave charge is for the pipelines of ONGC passing through the Mumbai Port Trust limits,” TAMP said in its order. Responding to ONGC’s grievance that it signed the agreement with Mumbai Port Trust under duress and without full consent, TAMP said that “ONGC was not obliged to accept such agreement if it did not want to”. “Having signed the agreement, the ONGC cannot, at this stage, argue that it signed the agreement under duress and without consent. Agreement has been made between both the parties who have intended to bind together to serve the interest of both the parties. When a binding agreement is not honoured by one party to the agreement by non-performance, there is breach of agreement. The other party is discharged from its obligation under the agreement and it is entitled to rescind the agreement, which would affect the oil industry. The Mumbai Port Trust, being a responsible public authority, has chosen not to rescind the agreement. The proposal of the Mumbai Port Trust for recovery of way leave charges and rent for the parcel of land at Jawahar Dweep leviable as per the agreement between ONGC and MBPT dated 28 January 2005 is approved with retrospective effect from 01 October 2009 to 30 September 2018, as proposed by Mumbai Port Trust,” TAMP wrote in a February 8 gazette notification. BusinessLine has reviewed a copy of the gazette notification. For cash-strapped Mumbai Port Trust, the TAMP orders on wharfage compensation, special way leave charges and land rent on ONGC pipelines means a bonanza of more than Rs 400 crore in arrears alone.