US Emerging as a LNG Powerhouse
Last month month, ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum announced that they will proceed with construction of the >$10 billion Golden Pass liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility on the Texas Gulf Coast. This project would export up to 2.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of LNG, and is just one of more than 50 LNG export projects to be approved by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). According to the DOE, since the startup of Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG export terminal in February 2016, about 2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of domestically-produced LNG have been exported to 34 different countries. Cheniere Energy was the first major LNG exporter, but they were joined last year by Dominion Energy, which opened its Cove Point LNG export terminal. This is just the tip of the iceberg, however, as the LNG export market is projected to surge over the next three decades. You can thank the shale boom for that. The Shale Boom Upended Energy Markets LNG export growth is the latest example of how the U.S. shale boom has disrupted global oil and gas markets. Advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling turned an expected natural gas deficit into a huge surplus. Following years of stagnant production, U.S. natural gas grew 50% from 2005 to 2015 to reach 72 Bcf/d. In the process, the U.S. became the world’s largest natural gas producer, with 20 percent of the global production share. This surge of production kept U.S. natural gas prices in check. Natural gas spot prices that had regularly spiked above $10/MMBtu fell below that level in 2008, and since 2010 have only been above $5/MMBtu during brief cold weather events. Natural gas demand has kept pace. Natural gas exports to Mexico have now exceeded 5 Bcf/d, equal to about 7 percent of U.S. daily production. Consumption by the electric power sector increased by nearly 50 percent from 2005 to 2016, reaching 27 Bcf/d. Industrial demand has also increased by 30 percent as some manufacturing relocated to the U.S. to take advantage of low gas prices. The Coming LNG Export Flood But the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is betting that the next big surge of demand is going to come from LNG exports. In its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2019 with projections to 2050, the EIA projects that U.S. LNG exports will quintuple from an average of 2.8 Bcf/d in 2018 to 14 Bcf/d by 2050. The EIA projects a 5.1 percent annual growth rate in LNG exports from 2018 to 2050. If that outlook is correct, in 2050 LNG exports would consume an estimated 12 percent of U.S. natural gas production, which itself is forecast to rise by nearly another 50 percent between now and 2050. The global LNG trade is currently dominated by Qatar and Australia. In recent years, Qatar has been comfortably in first place, exporting about 10 Bcf/d. But the EIA projections would put U.S. exports about 40 percent ahead of Qatar’s current export level. Can Production Keep Pace? To date, most of the U.S. natural gas production growth has been in the Appalachia Region. Appalachia production has exploded from below 2 Bcf/d in 2009 to more than 30 Bcf/d in 2018. The EIA forecasts that the Appalachia will continue to produce 52 percent of cumulative production of U.S. shale gas through 2050. But the associated natural gas (co-produced with oil) in the Permian Basin is also soaring. Natural gas production in the Permian Basin has reached 13 Bcf/d, the same level as the Appalachia Region in 2013. Permian gas production has doubled in just over two years and is now second only to the Appalachia Region. Further, Permian Basin gas production should continue to grow along with the region’s oil. A new assessment by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that there are 281 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, technically recoverable natural gas in the Permian. That’s enough gas for 58 years of Permian production at 2018 rates, which should help feed the monster LNG demand growth that is forecast in coming decades. Conclusions The implication of this surge in LNG trade will be to make natural gas a more globally traded commodity, which should decrease some of the natural gas price disparity seen around the world. U.S. natural gas prices should increase, while those in Asia and Europe should decline. The beneficiaries will be U.S. natural gas producers and LNG exporters, global natural gas consumers, and the environment — as natural gas displaces coal in many Asian markets.
LNG supply glut, price slump should raise questions over future projects
The slump in the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia to its lowest in three years should give pause for thought to the slew of companies planning new ventures to produce the super-chilled fuel. But it probably won’t. The spot price for LNG delivered to Northeast Asia dropped to $4.65 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week to March 21, the lowest since May 2016. It’s been an unusual northern winter for LNG, with the price peaking at $10.90 per mmBtu in November and steadily sliding since then. The more normal seasonal pattern is for spot LNG prices to peak around January before slipping in the shoulder season of spring, with the seasonal winter climb starting sometime in the third quarter. The fact that LNG prices have performed poorly over winter is more a reflection of excess supply, rather than weak demand, with Refinitiv vessel-tracking and port data confirming that consumption has been quite robust. LNG deliveries in Northeast Asia, which includes top three importers Japan, China and South Korea, were about 73.3 million tonnes for the four months from November to February. The previous winter, imports for those months totalled 70.3 million tonnes, meaning that LNG demand in the top-consuming region was actually 4.3 percent higher in the winter period of 2018-19 than the same period in 2017-18. The issue for LNG is supply, with the last of the eight major Australian projects built over the past decade coming on stream, and more volume becoming available from the United States. It’s a problem that is likely to get worse rather than better for the rest of 2019, with capacity additions likely to swamp demand growth, at least in Asia. About 70 million tonnes of new LNG capacity will reach the market this year and next, Wood Mackenzie analyst Nicholas Browne told the LNGgc Asia conference in Singapore last month. While estimates of the likely increase in demand vary, none are as high as 70 million tonnes over the next two years, with a figure around half that viewed as more likely. This means that either LNG producers will have to cut back on output, or the price will have to be low enough for the fuel to replace pipeline natural gas in markets such as Europe. ARE NEW PROJECTS STILL VIABLE? The current supply glut and price weakness may also cast a shadow over the next wave of LNG projects, with the frontrunners expected to start taking final investment decisions (FIDs) this year. It’s easy to dismiss the price slump as merely seasonal, and point to expectations of strong demand growth in China and other parts of Asia in coming years. The more optimistic versions of these forecasts see world LNG demand at least doubling in the next decade from the 321 million tonnes shipped in 2018. Much of this demand growth is focused on Asia, with India, Pakistan and various Southeast Asian countries playing the major role alongside China. LNG Canada, a 10 million tonne per annum project led by Royal Dutch Shell, has already taken its FID, becoming the first cab off the rank in the new wave, with first output expected in 2024. There are 14 more U.S. and Canadian ventures slated to take FID this year or next, and they will be joined by projects in Mozambique, Russia, Qatar and possibly Australia. The traditional model of approving multi-billion dollar projects only when offtake agreements for most of the production are finalised is also being upended, with several ventures planning on going ahead on the basis that the spot market for LNG will grow and be deep and liquid enough to absorb all the planned output. This may be somewhat optimistic as this view relies heavily on all the emerging consumers of LNG actually building the import and re-gasification capacity, and the downstream facilities to consume the natural gas. It is worth noting that the outlook for Japan, the world’s top buyer, is for demand to drift lower in coming years. It’s also expected that China’s rapid growth of recent years will start to temper, especially given the likely completion of a natural gas pipeline from Russia in the next couple of years. South Korea, which ranks behind Japan and China, is also uncertain for LNG demand in the future, given the country is now emphasising renewable energy for its future needs. The risk for LNG producers is that if all, or even a majority, of the planned projects take FID this year or next, is that a tsunami of supply will arrive at more or less the same time, and it will be enough to swamp even the most optimistic demand growth scenarios.
Exxon may decide on FEED for Russian Far East LNG project in 2019
Exxon Mobil’s Russian unit may take a decision this year on the Front End Engineering Design (FEED) for its Far East Liquefied Natural Gas project with Rosneft, Alexander Popov, vice president at Exxon Neftegaz, said on Wednesday. The company is continuing to hold talks on gas supplies from the Sakhalin 1 oil and gas project to Sakhalin 2, a project which needs gas in order to expand its LNG production, Popov said at an LNG conference organised by Vostock Capital.
Qatar to launch largest energy bank with $10 billion
Qatar will launch the world’s largest energy bank with a capital of $10 billion in 2019, an official of the new bank said. The move comes in the context of a fast-growing energy sector in Qatar, which plans to expand the capacity of annual production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to 110 million tonnes by 2024, reported Xinhua news agency. Mohamed al-Marri, Chairman of the new bank’s media committee, told an Islamic finance conference in Doha on Tuesday that operations would begin in the fourth quarter, according to a statement. “The bank is going to be the largest Islamic energy-focused lender in the world and will target the private sector and government’s energy projects home and abroad,” Marri said. The bank would focus on financing oil, gas, petrochemicals, and renewable energy projects, he added.
GAIL (India) Limited to Equip its Gas Turbines with Siemens Remote Diagnostic Services
Siemens will install state-of-the-art Remote Diagnostic Services (RDS) for GAIL covering gas turbines installed across Hazira-Vijaipur-Jagdishpur (HVJ) pipeline and Vijaipur C2/C3 Plant. The scope includes supply of RDS hardware, site installation and commissioning, including three years’ remote Operational Service Desk (OSD) and Help-desk services. The 24/7, year-around accessible OSD will be equipped with machine learning tools and manned by technical experts to provide faster, higher quality troubleshooting and guidance for problem resolution. GAIL is India’s largest state-owned gas transmission and distribution company and plays a pivotal role in meeting the energy needs of the country. Reliable and efficient operations, specially of critical assets, are key to a profitable and sustainable business for gas transmission utilities. Siemens has an experience of monitoring over a thousand oil & gas and industrial rotating equipment across 80 countries through Remote Diagnostic Services. This partnership will enhance availability, reliability, and efficiency. Siemens’ RDS solution combines asset data with OEM industry expertise to deliver information that allows faster and accurate predictive analysis for effective decisions. This enables improved operational planning to increase availability, mitigate risks, and optimize operational costs. It comprises a suite of tools and processes that enables Siemens to remotely access and review real-time operational and diagnostics data from installed equipment, detect early changes in operational condition through data analysis, and provide recommendations.
Indian-Omani group strikes $3.85 bln deal to build Sri Lanka oil refinery
India’s Accord Group and Oman’s Ministry of Oil and Gas have signed a $3.85 billion deal to build an oil refinery in Sri Lanka, the biggest single pledge of foreign direct investment ever made in the country. Sri Lankan officials said the 200,000 barrel-per-day refinery will be built on 585 acres near the site of the new Hambantota international port and a related industrial zone on the nation’s southern coast. The refinery, construction of which is expected to begin on March 24 and be completed in 44 months, is expected to produce 9 million metric tonnes of refined products a year for export from the Hambantota port, which serves the busiest East-West shipping route. Privately owned Accord Group will control 70 percent of the joint venture and the Sultanate of Oman’s Ministry of Oil and Gas the rest. Accord’s ownership comes through a Singapore investment vehicle which is 90-percent owned by its Silver Park International Pvt Ltd operation. The deal represents a challenge to China, which had been on track to be the dominant foreign investor on the island. China Merchants Port Holdings, China Harbour Engineering Corp and other Chinese companies are investors in the port and industrial zone. China’s separate $1.4 billion financing of facilities on reclaimed land near the nation’s main Colombo port is currently the island’s biggest single foreign direct investment. New Delhi has been concerned about China muscling into Sri Lanka and other countries in the region where India is the traditional power. India fears Sri Lanka, just off its southern coast, could become a Chinese military outpost. Tensions between India and China are creating political turmoil in Sri Lanka. A bust-up between President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe over how far to accommodate Indian interests led to months of political chaos late last year. The refinery will be Chennai-based Accord’s first foray into oil refining. Its current interests include power generation, brewing and healthcare. The joint venture plans to invest $1.89 billion in share capital and $1.96 billion via loans, the project document seen by Reuters showed. “With this refinery, our exports will grow by $7 billion per year,” Nalin Bandara Jayamaha, Sri Lanka’s deputy minister of development strategies and international trade, told reporters at a news conference in Colombo. The industrial zone at Hambantota has been delayed by a land acquisition process which has been hit by protests by local residents. Mangala Yapa, an advisor to Sri Lanka’s development strategies ministry, said 200 acres to house the venture’s oil tanks were already available and another 385 acres are being acquired, while an environmental impact assessment is underway. “We are doing a site-specific EIA (environmental impact assessment). Since already there are oil tanks in Hambantota, we do not see any issues,” Yapa said. An official at Singapore-based Silver Park International Pte Ltd confirmed the refinery investment, but declined to comment further. The company has been registered in Singapore since June 2017. The Omani government entity was not immediately available for comment.
Now petrol pumps want an exemption on code of conduct
Public-sector oil marketing companies, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), have approached the petroleum ministry to seek an exemption from the election commission for going ahead with the allotment of at least 31,800 petrol pumps. The companies had opened bids for at least 78,493 petrol stations across the country, and advertisements for the same were issued in November. But only just over 31,000 could be finalised before the Election Commission announced the schedule for the general elections, thus triggering the model code of conduct. The Business Standard reports that the oil companies are seeking an exemption so that the bids that were finalised before the model code of conduct came into force can be processed. “OMCs are of the view that as the decision on clearing 31,800 outlets were taken prior to the elections and since it was a business decision by the companies, the election commission is unlikely to have an objection on it. The three companies put together had got over 400,000 applications for the total 74,608 or 95% of the areas that were on offer,” the report quotes an unnamed source as saying. The central government has no direct role in issuing bids for petrol pumps. But it does control the oil companies that issue the bid. Hence, early reports said the oil ministry officials and company executives wanted to play it safe and not go ahead with the process. But that has now changed. It is not that oil marketing companies have been unbiased on election campaigning. As reported in the March 13 newsletter, hoardings at petrol pumps have been a source of controversy for years. This year too, many petrol pumps have huge billboards advertising various government schemes, in violation of the model code of conduct. A consortium representing dealers had alleged last year that they had received “verbal advisory” from oil companies to put up posters of PM Modi at their retail outlets ahead of 2019 elections.
China plans national oil and gas pipeline company
* A top-level communist party body meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping approved guidelines on oil and gas pipeline operation mechanism reform on Tuesday, state television reported * China will form a state-controlled oil and gas pipeline company with diverse investors, it said * The national company, a highly anticipated reform announced by China’s state planner earlier this month, was put in place to guarantee secure and stable supplies of oil and gas, the state media said * Creating a central oil and gas operator will help China’s state-owned energy companies separate the cost of pipeline transportation from the sale of oil and gas.
India’s fuel demand rises 3.8 per cent in February
India’s fuel demand rose 3.8 per cent in February as free cooking gas connections spurred LPG consumption while petrol and diesel use continued to rise. Fuel consumption in February totalled 17.41 million tonnes as compared to 16.77 million tonnes in the same month last year, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the Oil Ministry showed. Consumption rose for the third month in a row as ensuing general elections are likely to spike demand further. With retail prices moderating, petrol consumption soared 8 per cent to 2.25 million tonnes while the government push to give every household a cooking gas connection led to LPG demand spiking by 14.2 per cent to 2.2 million tonnes. Diesel, the most consumed fuel in the country, saw consumption rise by 2.7 per cent to 6.7 million tonnes. Hectic campaigning is likely as India goes to poll over the next two months, which will boost the use of transportation fuel as political parties traverse the country courting voters. General elections will be held in seven phases starting on April 11. During February, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) sales were up 10.5 per cent to 6,80,000 tonnes. With the government pushing for use of cleaner liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as cooking fuel by giving free connections to poor women, kerosene usage dropped 12 per cent to 272,000 tonnes in February when compared to the year-ago period. Naphtha sales were up by a steep 25.2 per cent at 1.28 million tonnes as power demand soared, while consumption of petroleum coke dropped 15.3 per cent to 1.58 million tonnes.
Oil consumption jumps for third month ahead of elections
Oil consumption in India continued to gather strength in February as increased demand for transportation and cooking fuel ahead of federal elections outweighed an economic slowdown. India’s total usage of oil products increased 3.8 percent to 17.4 million tonnes in February from a year ago, according to the oil ministry’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell. Key Insights India’s oil demand in January grew at the fastest pace in six months after declining for three months in the second half of last year. Hectic campaigning during the world’s biggest election, set to kick off next month, will boost the use of transportation fuel as political parties traverse the country courting voters. Demand for liquefied petroleum gas is also surging, with state refiners seeking to import cargoes of the cooking fuel as the government tries to keep voter morale high by ensuring rural households are well supplied. Yet, headwinds remain. With oil prices rising again and economic activity remaining soft, demand growth may moderate in the coming months, Jefferies India analysts including Somshankar Sinha said in a Feb. 19 note. India’s economy slowed in the last quarter on weaker domestic demand and a global slowdown. Animal spirits in the South Asian country had a tame start in 2019 amid a pullback in exports and weak business activity. Domestic car sales declined in February as sentiment remained subdued across urban and rural markets. Get More Consumption of diesel, which accounts for about 40 percent of the South Asian nation’s oil usage, increased 2.7 percent to 6.72 million tonnes last month. Gasoline consumption expanded 8 percent to 2.26 million tonnes. LPG usage jumped 14 percent to 2.22 million tonnes. Petroleum coke consumption fell 15 percent to 1.58 million tonnes.