OPEC Moves Up Meeting To Discuss Oil Production Quotas
The OPEC+ members currently participating in voluntary production cuts will meet this Saturday, May 3, instead of Monday, May 5, according to Kpler’s Amena Bakr on X. The call is set for noon Vienna time, with the agenda focused on “consensus building around maintaining the sped-up increment of 411K for June.” Brent crude had slipped nearly 1% by late Friday morning, trading at $61.56. It’s a price level not seen since early 2021—and one that puts most OPEC+ budgets underwater. For producers already grappling with restricted output, prices below $65 are a growing fiscal headache. The accelerated meeting follows mounting tensions within the group. Reports suggest Saudi Arabia is signaling it can live with lower prices—a not-so-subtle message to chronic overproducers like Iraq and Kazakhstan. The 411,000 bpd production increase originally floated as a wake-up call may now be cemented into policy, signaling a strategic shift in Riyadh’s approach. OPEC+ has pledged to offset 4.57 million bpd of overproduction by mid-2026. But enforcement remains patchy. Saturday’s call will test whether Riyadh and Moscow can still steer the ship—or whether quota politics are about to devolve into a full-blown battle for market share. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg survey released Thursday showed that OPEC’s actual output fell by 200,000 bpd in April, down to 27.24 million—contradicting the group’s planned increase. Market pessimism is already pricing in a production hike. But April’s figures are a reminder: announced increases don’t always materialize. Whether Saudi Arabia will keep absorbing the blow while others cheat—or start using price as a weapon to enforce discipline—won’t be decided in a Vienna video call. It’ll be decided at the wellhead.
LNG’s Next Big Threat Isn’t Demand—It’s U.S. Policy
Winter is over in the northern hemisphere, and demand for heating is in decline, to the likely chagrin of LNG exporters. Demand for the fuel in the key Asian and European markets has weakened this month as peak demand season eases—but the weakening is temporary. Europe imported a record 7.04 million tons of liquefied natural gas from its top supplier, the United States, last month, but this has dropped to 5.88 million tons this month, data from Kpler, cited by Reuters’ Clyde Russell has shown. This is still significantly higher than the EU’s average monthly imports of U.S. LNG for last year. Those stood at 3.76 million tons, meaning the 2025 average so far represents a hefty increase that President Trump might like. After all, U.S. LNG has come to account for 55% of Europe’s total LNG imports since the start of 2025. Europe has managed to reduce its overall gas imports over the first quarter through demand destruction, a climate think tank said in a new report earlier today. Per the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, total imports of gas, both pipeline and LNG, were at the same level as last year over the first three months of 2025. The makeup of these imports still featured a sizable contribution of Russian gas to the total import mix despite attempts by the EU to give up all Russian hydrocarbons. In Asia, meanwhile, China already made the news by suspending any and all LNG imports from the United States, which has had to look for other buyers in its second-biggest market after Europe. Fortunately for all involved, Asian countries are all big buyers of liquefied gas. Japan and South Korea are already major buyers of American liquefied gas and India may well join them as top buyer as it seeks to reduce and hopefully eliminate its trade surplus with the U.S. per President Trump’s plans. Indeed, Trump’s trade policies seem like a major tailwind for LNG demand on a global scale. But there may be a problem—stemming from other Trump policies. The warning came from the LNG industry earlier this month and concerned the introduction of restrictions on Chinese-built ships calling at U.S. ports in the form of port fees. Announced by Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the rules aimed to boost American shipbuilding but it stressed LNG exporters who currently have no alternative to Chinese-built tankers. “There are currently no US-built vessels capable of shipping LNG and no surplus capacity at US shipyards to build LNG carriers by the deadline of 2029,” the Financial Times reported, citing unnamed industry sources. This is problematic for exporters even with the federal government’s provision for a gradual phase-in of locally manufactured carriers. The Baltic and International Maritime Council, one of the largest shipping industry associations globally, also warned against the restrictions. In a letter, PIMCO said that “Charging fees on ships calling at US ports due to Chinese origin of the calling ships, Chinese domestication of the operator, the operator’s fleet’s percentage of Chinese origin ships and the operator’s order book’s percentage of Chinese contracts, will significantly increase the cost of seaborne transport to and from the United States of America – even if operators are pursuing avoidance strategies.” The situation with vessel availability is particularly tight in LNG due to the relatively fast surge in demand for the fuel, which shipbuilders are currently trying to catch up, which will take years. Demand for LNG tankers surged by 25% last year, industry data showed in January, with the bulk of the new orders going to South Korean and Chinese shipbuilders. Korean companies were in the lead, with 68 orders, and Chinese shipbuilders trailed them with 41 orders. Over the long term, then, U.S.LNG exporters could use South Korea-built vessels, but they need to ship their gas in the short term as well and this might become a problem unless the new port fee rule is tweaked to ensure the continued flow of U.S. LNG abroad. That’s an immediate concern because the current lull in shipments is a temporary occurrence. Soon enough, Europe will need to start refilling its storage caverns. With its plans to give up Russian gas entirely, it will need to step up U.S.LNG imports further, apparently regardless of cost, which will inevitably rise with the jump in demand. The good news for Europe—this time the price rise may be a little smaller thanks to the tariff war and China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. energy that saw it cut all imports of American liquefied gas. The bad news is that with every U.S. trade partner seeking more LNG imports to reduce its surplus with the world’s biggest market, the price can and likely will change soon enough and not in a favorable direction for the Europeans. For U.S. LNG exporters, however, it’s smooth sailing ahead—just as soon as the Trump administration takes care of that port fee problem.
Venezuela Desperate For China To Buy More Oil
Venezuela’s oil lifeline is unraveling—and it’s not just because of collapsing infrastructure or chronic mismanagement. It’s geopolitics, sanctions, and desperation, all swirling around Caracas as the U.S. slams the door shut. Last week, Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez showed up in Beijing with an urgent ask: Buy more oil. Fast. With President Trump booting Chevron and other foreign firms out of the country by May 27 and slapping 25% tariffs on anyone who dares to buy Venezuelan crude, Caracas is scrambling to secure its only remaining oil customer: China. But Beijing isn’t exactly offering a warm embrace. Chinese officials reportedly want even steeper discounts on Venezuelan barrels and are renegotiating contracts—because when you’re the only buyer left, why not squeeze? Meanwhile, the export picture is already deteriorating. Shipments dropped nearly 20% in April as PDVSA canceled Chevron’s cargo loadings early. “Zombie ships”—tankers disguised as legitimate vessels—are now sailing from Venezuela’s coast, trying to hide from global tracking systems. You don’t do that unless you’re desperate. China, Venezuela’s largest creditor by far, is still collecting loan repayments from Venezuela in oil. But even that stream is thinning. Production at Sinovensa—once the crown jewel joint venture between CNPC and PDVSA—has dropped to 103,000 bpd, down from 160,000 in 2015. Now Trump’s team is openly threatening “consequences” for any nation that continues buying Venezuelan crude, signaling secondary sanctions could hit China next. For an economy already teetering, the loss of its only significant oil customer could be catastrophic. Venezuela’s central bank reserves are drying up, the bolívar is collapsing again, and inflation is knocking. Rodríguez called her China tour “confidential” and “extremely happy.” Some instead call it a Hail Mary.
Qatar and Japan Discuss Major LNG Supply Deal
QatarEnergy is in talks with Japanese energy companies over a long-term supply deal for liquefied natural gas from the expanded North Field. According to an exclusive Reuters report that cited unnamed sources, the volume under discussion is a minimum of 3 million tons annually, to be split between several Japanese companies, which include heavyweights JERA and Mitsui & Co. Qatar is already the largest supplier of LNG to resource-scarce Japan. The deal, over the Reuters sources, would strengthen the Gulf state’s dominant position on the Japanese market at a time of intensifying competition between LNG producers. Qatar is investing billions in the expansion of its section of the world’s largest natural gas field. Plans were initially to boost LNG production twofold by 2030, from under 80 million tons annually. Then, last year, Qatar decided to go further and boost LNG capacity by as much as 85% by 2030. That would be equal to a total of 142 million tons of liquefied gas annually. Meanwhile, QatarEnergy is securing long-term demand for all that LNG. Last year, it signed a supply deal with Kuwait for another 3 million tons of LNG annually over a period of 15 years. Iraq is a potential buyer. But it is Asia that is the key market for LNG suppliers—except for the U.S., which ships LNG to Europe. And within Asia, Japan is a much sought after buyer because of its almost complete dependence on imports of energy. Last year, Japan’s total LNG imports reached 65.89 million tons. “Asia-Oceania currently accounts for more than half of our procurement sources. For supply stability, expanding options to regions like North America and the Middle East would be beneficial,” the head of JERA’s financial strategy and planning division said at a recent earnings call, as quoted by Reuters.
Bharat Petroleum eyes $20-30/ton gain from swap of Middle East LPG with cheaper US supplies
Indian fuel retailer Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd expects a net gain of $20 to $30 a metric ton on delivery of U.S. liquefied petroleum gas through swap deal with Middle Eastern suppliers, its head of finance said on Friday. BPCL, India’s second-biggest state refiner, is in talks with suppliers to swap contracted Middle Eastern cargo with U.S. supplies, Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta told analysts. A U.S.-China tariff war has widened the price gap between Middle Eastern and U.S. LPG and upended trade routes. China has imposed duties on goods from the U.S. in response to tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports from China. “We are approaching suppliers. We see little bit of opportunity in terms of U.S. LPG. We are expecting a net benefit of $20 to $30 per ton,” Gupta said. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co is also replacing some of the LPG it supplies India with cheaper U.S. cargo from June, Reuters reported. Cheaper U.S. LPG will help BPCL offset some of the 6.5 billion to 7 billion rupees ($77 million to $83 million) monthly revenue loss it suffers on the local sale of the cooking fuel at below market rates. Gupta said he hopes the federal government will introduce a quarterly compensate scheme for refiners that incur a revenue loss on LPG sales. India sources more than 80% of its LPG from the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait, under annual contracts. Gupta also said BPCL sees the share of Russian oil in crude processing at its three refineries rising to about 30% to 32% from 24% in January-March when U.S. sanctions disrupted supplies. He said BPCL is buying Russian crude at a discount of about $3 a barrel to Dubai benchmark. BPCL is looking to build a refinery of either 180,000 barrels per day or 240,000 bpd in southern Andhra Pradesh state within four years of a final investment decision, which Gupta said he expects by the end of 2025.
Petrol sales rise 4.6 per cent, diesel 4 per cent
Petrol sales grew 4.6% and diesel 4% in April over the same month last year, according to the provisional consumption data released by the oil ministry. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) sales expanded 3.2% and LPG 6.7%. The sales trend in April significantly varied from March when petrol sales had grown 5.7% year-on-year, diesel by 0.9%, ATF by 5.7% and LPG by 4.2%. Diesel’s 4% sales jump has come as a surprise as it recorded barely 2% growth in all of 2024-25. Similarly ATF sales growth at 3.2% is much lower than the average 8.9% growth seen in 2024-25. Diesel is the mainstay of India’s road transport and accounts for nearly 40% in volume terms of all petroleum products consumed in the country. Diesel growth has been slow for years due to increased popularity of vehicles powered by alternative fuels such as petrol, CNG and battery. ATF sales decline signals slowing air traffic.
IMF Slashes Growth Forecast for Middle East Exporters as Oil Prices Dip
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its economic growth forecast for the oil exporters in the Middle East to 2.3% from 4% expected in October, due to the slide in oil prices. “Across the region, rising trade tensions and policy uncertainty are adding to the impact of conflicts and extended oil production cuts to weaken growth prospects,” the IMF said on Thursday in its Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia. The IMF expects oil prices to decline in 2025 to $66.90 per barrel, nearly $6 below the October projection, “as the gradual phase-out of OPEC+ oil production cuts and strong supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries are expected to outpace subdued global oil demand growth amid expectations of weaker global economic prospects.” The oil market will be moderately oversupplied this year, the IMF said, noting that bearish trends are expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices this year. Oil demand globally is now set to be somewhat weaker than anticipated in October 2024, “mainly because of increased policy uncertainty and escalating trade tensions amid weak fundamentals,” the fund said. Across the Middle East, non-oil growth is also expected to be lower compared with the October projections because major oil exporters are likely to tweak investment spending plans due to the softer oil prices. “Elevated uncertainty about oil prices makes it even more important for MENA oil exporters to focus on preserving fiscal buffers while ensuring an equitable redistribution of their natural resource wealth across current and future generations,” the IMF said, commenting on the challenges for the Middle East’s oil exporters. The IMF also recommended that the petrostates develop and diversify non-oil revenue sources and eliminate energy subsidies where applicable. Last week, the IMF downgraded Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth forecast to 3.0% this year, lower than a previous forecast of 3.3% economic growth, following the 13% decline in oil prices over the past month.
Saudi Aramco likely to pick 20% each in new BPCL, ONGC refineries
Saudi Aramco is likely to acquire 20 per cent ownership in two new refineries planned by state-owned companies Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) and Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL). The move comes as Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, looks for a stable outlet for its crude in the world’s fastest-growing emerging market. Aramco is in separate talks to invest in BPCL’s planned refinery in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh and a proposed ONGC refinery in Gujarat. Both projects are expected to operate with a debt-equity ratio of 7:3. Each refinery will have the capacity to process 12 million tonnes of crude oil yearly. Aramco’s initial investment in both facilities could total around $2.8 billion. These investments could potentially increase to $5 billion in the future. While an agreement was signed between the two countries to establish refineries in India during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Riyadh on April 23, the specific arrangements are still being worked out.
India ready to collaborate openly to build inclusive global energy future: Hardeep Singh Puri
Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, Hardeep Singh Puri on Tuesday said India is ready to “collaborate openly” to build an inclusive global energy future. Speaking at a conference on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor here, Puri said IMEC represents India’s role as a global energy bridge. “India is ready to lead responsibly, collaborate openly and build sustainably as we build an inclusive global energy future,” he added. He said the IMEC is not just a transport corridor, but the initiative attempts a “rekindling” of the Golden Road, which was the primary travel corridor of the ancient world. India aims to integrate energy, trade and digital infrastructure while advancing clean energy solutions like undersea cables and hydrogen pipelines through the platform, the diplomat-turned-politician said. The country has diversified its energy sources and strengthened partnerships worldwide, even as it has been importing most of its crude oil, he said. The government is also boosting domestic energy production, promoting ethanol blending and leading in green hydrogen initiatives, the minister said. Puri said when he took charge of the ministry in 2021, India was consuming 5 million barrels of crude oil per day, which has risen to 5.5 million barrels, and added that the same is expected to reach 13.2 million barrels per day by 2050 as the economy grows. “India’s energy strategy reflects its economic ambition and imminent place in global leadership,” he said. Energy is not just an input for economic growth, it also reflects a nation’s confidence, ambition and long-term direction, he added.
Indian Oil agrees to five-year LNG deal with Trafigura, sources say
Indian Oil Corp , the country’s top refiner, has agreed to a five-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) import deal with trader Trafigura, with prices linked to the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark, three trade sources said on Wednesday. Trafigura will supply three to four LNG cargoes this year and six cargoes annually from next year, said one of the sources. No immediate comment was available from Trafigura and Indian Oil. India is looking to raise its imports of U.S. energy to fix its trade balance with the world’s top economy and traders are looking to reroute some of the LNG meant for China into India, one of the sources said. India is the world’s fourth-largest LNG importer, shipping in 26.58 million metric tons of the fuel last year, according to Kpler data. The U.S. is India’s second-biggest supplier but the two sides are looking to ramp up volumes for India’s energy-hungry economy, one of the fastest growing in the world. Reuters reported in March that India is considering a proposal to scrap import taxes on U.S. LNG to boost purchases and cut its trade surplus with Washington. LNG importer GAIL India had also recently issued a tender seeking a stake in an LNG project in the U.S., along with a 15-year import deal.