Oil demand to touch new high in FY27 on rising use of key fuels
India’s consumption of refined petroleum fuels and products is expected to hit another fresh high in the upcoming financial year — 2026-27 (FY27) — on the back of steady growth in energy use across various sectors of the economy, as per latest government estimates. According to projections by the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG), the country’s consumption of petroleum products — seen a proxy for crude oil demand — in FY27 is seen rising 2.8% over the revised estimate for FY26 to 250.8 million tonnes. The consumption growth is expected to be led by fuels and products like petrol, aviation turbine fuel (ATF), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), diesel, and naphtha. India’s petroleum consumption has been rising to reach a new high with each passing year, with the exception of two years when demand was hit because of the COVID pandemic. The revised estimate for the current fiscal — 244 million tonnes — is slated to be the highest-ever petroleum product consumption level so far, but will likely be topped in the next financial year.
Venezuela Oil Revenue Projected to Hit $5 Billion Under U.S. Control
Venezuela’s oil sales, under the control of the United States for five weeks now, are set to bring $5 billion over the next few months, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told NBC News in an interview. “Sales today are over a billion dollars, and in fact, we have sort of short-term agreements over the next few months that will bring in another $5 billion,” Secretary Wright said in the interview during a historic visit to Venezuela to meet with the interim President Delcy Rodríguez. The United States has already transferred $500 million in proceeds from sales of Venezuelan crude oil to Caracas, following the deal agreed by the two governments in January. All the money from the oil sales, handled by top commodity traders Vitol and Trafigura, goes back to Venezuela from a U.S. Treasury-controlled account, Secretary Chris told NBC News. There is a lot of work to be done and massive investments need to flow for Venezuela to restore its oil industry, “But it’s on the road to becoming investable,” Secretary Wright told NBC News. At last month’s White House meeting of U.S. President Trump with oil executives, ExxonMobil’s CEO Darren Woods said that “If we look at the legal and commercial constructs—frameworks—in place today in Venezuela, today it’s uninvestable.” During the visit to Venezuela, Secretary Chris said earlier this week that Venezuela’s crude oil production could surge as soon as this year. “This year, we can drive a dramatic increase in Venezuelan oil production, in Venezuelan natural gas production and Venezuelan electricity production,” the U.S. official said. Commenting on a recent change in Venezuela’s oil law, Wright said that it was “a meaningful step in the right direction”, as quoted by AP, but “probably not far and clear enough to encourage the kind of large capital flows.”
Oil Prices Tumble Toward Second Consecutive Weekly Loss
Crude oil prices began trade with a decline today, set for the second consecutive weekly loss as fears of a U.S.-Iran escalation faded. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $67.36 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $62.66 per barrel, both essentially unchanged on Monday but down from higher levels seen earlier in the week. “Signs the U.S. is seeking more time to reach a nuclear deal with Iran, reducing the near-term geopolitical risk premium,” have pressured prices, according to IG analyst Tony Sycamore, as quoted by Reuters. ING commodity analysts, meanwhile, pointed to data released this week by OPEC and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, noting that the market had largely ignored the EIA data, which showed an increase in both oil inventories and in production, at 8.53 million barrels and 498,000 barrels daily, respectively. OPEC, on the other hand, had a bullish report for oil traders, keeping its demand growth projections unchanged at 1.38 million barrels daily for this year and 1.34 million barrels daily for 2027. OPEC production, however, fell by 439,000 barrels daily last month, mostly resulting from disruptions in Kazakhstan. The latest monthly oil report of the International Energy Agency, however, prompted a 3% decline in oil prices on Thursday. The IEA revised down its demand growth predictions to 850,000 barrels daily, after last month it made an upward revision to that prediction, to 930,000 barrels daily. The IEA also confirmed its estimate that the oil market will be in a surplus in 2026, with supply set to rise by 2.4 million bpd in 2026, to 108.6 million bpd. Growth will be roughly evenly split between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ producers, the agency said. Last month, however, global oil supply plunged by 1.2 million bpd to 106.6 million bpd, as severe winter weather disrupted North American operations, in addition to the Kazakhstan decline.
U.S. Energy Secretary Says Venezuela Could See Surge in Oil Output
Venezuela’s crude oil production could increase dramatically as soon as this year, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said during his visit in the South American country. “This year, we can drive a dramatic increase in Venezuelan oil production, in Venezuelan natural gas production and Venezuelan electricity production,” Wright said, as quoted by Reuters, following a meeting with interim president Delcy Rodriguez. Currently, Venezuela produces around 1 million barrels of oil daily and has been having chronic problems with electricity supply. Higher oil, gas, and electricity production should lead to more job creation, higher wages, and better quality of life for Venezuelans, the U.S. Energy Secretary also said. Wright also addressed the oil business of Chinese companies in Venezuela, saying if that business was legitimate, the United States was fine with it but Washington would seek to avoid “damaging” deals between Chinese companies and Venezuela. “China does a lot of deals in countries where they are not mutually beneficial, Wright said. “They have been quite damaging to nations in South America, Africa and around the world. So I think with U.S. help and with U.S. partnership we want to stop those kind of deals.” Commenting on a recent change in Venezuela’s oil law, Wright said that it was “a meaningful step in the right direction”, as quoted by AP, but “probably not far and clear enough to encourage the kind of large capital flows.” Per the new law, private companies “will assume full management of the activities at its own expense, account, and risk, after demonstrating its financial and technical capacity through a business plan” that will be subject to approval by the Venezuelan oil ministry. The ownership of the resources to be developed by private companies, however, will remain with the Venezuelan state. The new law also caps royalty rates at 30% but allows the government to set individual royalty rates for projects based on factors such as investment needs and competitiveness.
Europe Gets Rare LNG Cargo from China Amid Gas Crunch
A tanker carrying liquefied gas is sailing to Europe from China in a rare move that was last made four years ago. The Seapeak Glasgow loaded the liquefied gas at the Zhejiang Ningbo terminal, Bloomberg reported, citing tanker-tracking data, and is signaling Europe as its next destination. European LNG imports are running at record highs amid a seasonal peak in demand. Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that U.S. and Russian liquefied gas together accounted for over 80% of Europe’s seaborne gas imports. The U.S. share of that was 55% and Russian LNG accounted for mover 25%. That latter LNG will disappear from next year as the EU approved a complete ban on Russian gas imports earlier this year. As things stand now, the European Union is the largest buyer of Russian liquefied gas, absorbing half of the country’s total LNG output. Despite record LNG imports, European countries are digging deeper into their gas storage, with EU-wide levels at just 35.62% full as of February 10th. In France, the level of gas in storage was even lower, at 26.09%, and in Germany it was 25.60%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. China, meanwhile, has been filling its own gas storage, with demand for LNG weakening throughout 25, except the final two months of the year when seasonal demand caused a spike in imports. Thanks to ample supply, China is in a position to resell LNG, including to a destination as distant as Europe. Europe is expected to import a record-high volume of liquefied natural gas this year as stronger demand for replenishing storage sites, the phase-out of Russian supply, and continued pipeline exports to Ukraine will drive increased demand, the International Energy Agency said earlier this year. Meanwhile, two gas storage sites in Germany are about to be shut down, as their operators told the German government they are no longer profitable.
Russia to Send Oil to Crisis-Stricken Cuba
Russia plans to send soon oil and oil products to Cuba as part of humanitarian aid, the Russian embassy in Cuba told Russian media on Thursday. Cuba’s worsening economic and humanitarian situation has gone from bad to worse in recent weeks as the U.S., which now controls Venezuela’s oil sales, is banning shipments to Cuba. U.S. President Donald Trump in late January signed an Executive Order declaring a national emergency and establishing a process to impose tariffs on goods from countries that sell or otherwise provide oil to Cuba. This is to protect U.S. national security and foreign policy from the Cuban regime’s malign actions and policies, according to the Executive Order. The Executive Order “imposes a new tariff system that allows the United States to impose additional tariffs on imports from any country that directly or indirectly provides oil to Cuba.” Russia is unfazed and doesn’t want to cut ties with Cuba, a friendly country according to Moscow’s classification. Venezuela was also among these, until U.S. forces captured Nicolas Maduro in early January and took control over the country’s oil sales. “In the near future, it is planned to deliver oil and oil products to Cuba as humanitarian aid,” the Russian embassy in Cuba told Russia’s daily Izvestia. At the same time, the Russian ministry of economic development has recommended that Russians refrain from traveling to Cuba amid the “fuel emergency” in the Caribbean country. Earlier this week, Canadian airlines suspended flights to Cuba as the island nation faces depletion in jet fuel stocks amid the U.S. energy squeeze aimed at prompting regime change. Cuba did not receive any oil imports from anywhere in January, Bloomberg has reported citing Kpler data. Cuba’s biggest oil suppliers have traditionally been Venezuela and Mexico, with Venezuela the biggest, but after the effective U.S. takeover of Venezuela’s oil industry those supplies dried up. Now, after Trump put pressure on Mexico to stop shipping fuel to the heavily sanctioned island, Cuba has no immediate alternatives although Russia has signaled it planned to continue supplying fuel there.
India’s petroleum and liquid fuel consumption to hit 5.92 mbpd in 2026 compared to 5.66 mbpd last year
The US Energy Information Administration of EIA has stated in a latest monthly update that it expects India will increase its liquid fuels consumption by around 0.3 million b/d in next two years. It sees India’s consumption at 5.92 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2026 and at 6.26 mbpd in 2027. This shows an impressive rise compared to 5.66 mbpd in 2025. Indias liquid fuel output is seen at 1.01 mbpd in 2025 and is expected to rise to 1.06 mbpd this year and to 1.09 mbpd next year.
Saudi Arabia’s Aramco Begins Production At $100B Jafurah Gas Project
Saudi Aramco has begun production of light oil (condensate) from its $100 billion Jafurah unconventional gas project, after the company completed Phase 1 construction of the 450-MMcf/D-capacity gas plant. This marks the first export of liquids from the massive field, which is primarily designed to produce natural gas. Initial cargoes were sold to Asian buyers for delivery in late February or early March 2026. Aramco will initially sell 4 to 6 cargoes per month, with each cargo consisting of approximately 500,000 barrels. Condensate is a high-value, light oil produced alongside natural gas. Aramco is expected to ramp up production at Jafurah to 2 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas by 2030. The Jafurah unconventional gas project is the largest liquid-rich shale gas play in the Middle East, holding 229 trillion scf of raw gas and 75 billion STB of condensate. The project is a key element of Saudi Arabia’s growth strategy, aimed at meeting rapidly growing domestic energy demand, shifting away from burning oil for electricity and driving industrial growth. By reducing domestic crude consumption for power, the Kingdom intends to free up this oil for export. The project also supports Saudi Arabia’s net-zero 2060 targets by replacing more carbon-intensive fuels with natural gas. The giant project involves advanced hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, with a total investment value estimated to reach over $100 billion. In August 2025, a consortium led by BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) signed a 20-year, $11 billion lease-and-lease-back deal with Aramco for the Jafurah gas field. Jafurah Midstream Gas Company (JMGC), newly established subsidiary, will hold the rights, with 51% owned by Aramco and 49% by the GIP-led consortium, which includes Hassana Investment Company and The Arab Energy Fund. The deal also aligns with Aramco’s objective to increase overall gas production capacity by 60% by 2030. The Jafurah project also supports the country’s Vision 2030’s goal to shift away from oil dependency. The project is expected to contribute $20 billion annually to the Kingdom’s GDP and create significant local job opportunities.
Sanctions hit India’s leading petroleum company Nayara Energy faces fresh risks as India-US deal may tighten curbs on Russian oil
Roseneft-backed Nayara Energy remains highly exposed if the India-US deal translates into stricter enforcement of tariffs or penalties for buying Russian oil as the refinery has limited diversification options available amid existing EU sanctions. The company which has ramped up its crude processing to nearly 90-100 percent of capacity as of October 2025 against only 70-80 percent of capacity utilisation after the EU sanctioned the 20-million tonne refinery denting its exports to European Union countries in July last year, once again finds itself in a distinct position. Analysts note that the refinery was running at 104 percent of capacity before the EU sanctions. “The refinery is already subject to EU and UK sanctions, which significantly restrict its access to non-sanctioned and ‘clean’ crude barrels, as well as related shipping, insurance, and financing services. As a result, Russian crude remains the most viable, and in many cases the only consistently accessible feedstock, that allows the refinery to operate at economic run rates,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modeling at Kpler. As part of its measures against Moscow, the EU has imposed sanctions on Nayara’s Vadinar refinery, owned by Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy and tightened the oil price cap. Post these sanctions, Nayara cannot export fuel such as petrol and diesel to European countries. Last year, the US also sanctioned major Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil. Given these constraints, Nayara is likely to continue processing Russian barrels as a complete halt would materially impair refinery operations unless sanctions relief or alternative commercial channels emerge, Ritolia said. The sanctions have impacted Nayara’s exports while leading Middle East suppliers including Saudi Arabia and Iraq have stopped their crude sale to the company.
India’s petroleum and liquid fuel consumption to hit 5.92 mbpd in 2026 compared to 5.66 mbpd last year
The US Energy Information Administration of EIA has stated in a latest monthly update that it expects India will increase its liquid fuels consumption by around 0.3 million b/d in next two years. It sees India’s consumption at 5.92 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2026 and at 6.26 mbpd in 2027. This shows an impressive rise compared to 5.66 mbpd in 2025. Indias liquid fuel output is seen at 1.01 mbpd in 2025 and is expected to rise to 1.06 mbpd this year and to 1.09 mbpd next year.