OPEC+ To Consider Oil Output Hike By 137,000 bpd For April
OPEC+ is likely to consider increasing oil output by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for April 2026, ending a three-month pause in hikes as they prepare for peak summer demand and navigate market share strategies, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday ahead of a scheduled cartel meeting on March 1. The group had previously implemented 137,000 bpd hikes in late 2025 before pausing increases for the first quarter of 2026 in a bid to avoid creating a supply surplus. Unwinding previous output cuts will allow key members such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE to claw back some market share at a time when oil prices are supported by ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices have been surging in response to growing U.S.-Iran tensions, with Brent crude jumping to a seven-month high above $71 per barrel. Fears of military action and potential supply disruptions have triggered volatility despite broader, ongoing concerns about a global oil surplus. The tensions have added a $3–$4 per barrel risk premium to U.S. crude prices; however, analysts have warned that oil prices could move higher if conflicts move from rhetoric to action. Analysts from Barclays see prices jumping to the $80 per barrel range in a scenario where the U.S. targets military or government leadership but avoids strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure. Rystad Energy sees a temporary spike of $10 to $15 per barrel in a wider but not catastrophic conflict if an attack is short-lived and does not cause major supply interruptions. Barclays, however, has predicted that strikes targeting Iranian production fields or export terminals could drive prices towards $100 per barrel. Last year, JPMorgan predicted an oil price spike to $130 in a “worst-case scenario” if Iran blockades vital chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is considered the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, with ~20-30% of global seaborne oil passing through it everyday. The chokepoint is the only direct maritime link from the Persian Gulf to the open sea, making it vital for exporting oil from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE to Asia and the rest of the world.
Iran Restarts Gas Exports to Iraq as Energy Pressures Mount
Iran has restarted the exports of natural gas to its neighbor Iraq despite U.S. opposition to the exchange, which last year led to the cancellation of these supplies. The daily rate of exports is 7 million cu m, Reuters reported, citing a spokesman for Iraq’s electricity ministry. The spokesman also said ministry officials plan to travel to Tehran to discuss future gas supplies as well. In December 2025, the Iraqi electricity ministry said it had suspended all purchases of Iranian natural gas, adding that this had immediately knocked between 4,000 and 4,500 megawatts off the national power grid. The suspension was part of a gradual process for reducing dependence on energy imports from Iran, with the blessing of the United States. Iranian supplies had been covering roughly 30 to 40 percent of Iraq’s power generation needs. Those volumes had already been diminishing due to payment disputes, U.S. sanctions pressure, and Iran’s own domestic shortages. This week’s news suggests that it has been challenging to replace Iranian gas imports with local energy use or alternative imports. The details about negotiations regarding summer demand for electricity reinforce this perception: summer is peak electricity demand season for much of the Northern hemisphere, notably the Middle East. If the Iraqis are willing to negotiate more gas supply from Iran just two months after announcing the suspension of these imports, then energy security considerations have resurfaced as a big priority. Interestingly, Iraq has plenty of its own gas, coming from the oil wells as associated gas. Unfortunately, most of this gas is flared at the oil fields rather than captured, processed, and utilized. The most obvious reason is the amount of money that needs to get invested in the necessary infrastructure. TotalEnergies is one of those investing in Iraq’s gas with the goal of eventually supplying this gas to power generators in the country.
Saudi Arabia Boosting Oil Output In Anticipation of U.S. Attacks On Iran
Saudi Arabia has started to increase its oil output as part of a contingency plan in the event the United States attacks Iran and oil flows are disrupted, Reuters reported on Wednesday, as OPEC’s biggest oil producer positions itself as a “reliable supplier” looking to take up its traditional role as a key swing producer ready to stabilize the markets if a conflict occurs. U.S. President Donald Trump recently revealed that he is considering a “limited military strike” on Iran in a bid to pressure its leaders into a new nuclear agreement. Saudi crude shipments jumped to 7.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first 24 days of February 2026, the highest level since April 2023. The Kingdom is prepared to implement a short-term output hike specifically to offset potential supply losses from Iran or disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint. Saudi Arabia can utilize its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea to bypass potential Gulf blockades, though its spare capacity is currently limited to ~2.4 million bpd. Iran, which produces around 3.2 million barrels per day (approximately 3% of global oil), has warned that any U.S. or allied military strikes against its territory will trigger immediate and decisive retaliation. The ongoing tensions have raised significant concerns that Iran could attempt to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical bottleneck which handles 20-30% of global seaborne oil. The threat of disruption has increased the geopolitical risk premium on oil, with analysts warning that a conflict could lead to sharp price spikes similar to those that occurred four years ago when Russia invaded Ukraine. Saudi Arabia’s output hike comes at a time when OPEC+ is considering a resumption of its unwinding program. OPEC+ is likely to consider increasing oil output by 137,000 barrels per day for April 2026 when it meets on March 1, ending a three-month pause in hikes. The group paused its program for the first quarter of 2026 after steady increases of 137,000 bpd in Oct/Nov/Dec 2025 due to fears of oversupply.
Saudi Arabia Boosting Oil Output In Anticipation of U.S. Attacks On Iran
Saudi Arabia has started to increase its oil output as part of a contingency plan in the event the United States attacks Iran and oil flows are disrupted, Reuters reported on Wednesday, as OPEC’s biggest oil producer positions itself as a “reliable supplier” looking to take up its traditional role as a key swing producer ready to stabilize the markets if a conflict occurs. U.S. President Donald Trump recently revealed that he is considering a “limited military strike” on Iran in a bid to pressure its leaders into a new nuclear agreement. Saudi crude shipments jumped to 7.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first 24 days of February 2026, the highest level since April 2023. The Kingdom is prepared to implement a short-term output hike specifically to offset potential supply losses from Iran or disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint. Saudi Arabia can utilize its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea to bypass potential Gulf blockades, though its spare capacity is currently limited to ~2.4 million bpd. Iran, which produces around 3.2 million barrels per day (approximately 3% of global oil), has warned that any U.S. or allied military strikes against its territory will trigger immediate and decisive retaliation. The ongoing tensions have raised significant concerns that Iran could attempt to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical bottleneck which handles 20-30% of global seaborne oil. The threat of disruption has increased the geopolitical risk premium on oil, with analysts warning that a conflict could lead to sharp price spikes similar to those that occurred four years ago when Russia invaded Ukraine. Saudi Arabia’s output hike comes at a time when OPEC+ is considering a resumption of its unwinding program. OPEC+ is likely to consider increasing oil output by 137,000 barrels per day for April 2026 when it meets on March 1, ending a three-month pause in hikes. The group paused its program for the first quarter of 2026 after steady increases of 137,000 bpd in Oct/Nov/Dec 2025 due to fears of oversupply.
India Turns to Venezuela; Reliance Books VLCCs as Russian Oil Imports Ease
Indian Refiner Reliance Industries has booked very large oil tankers, known as VLCCs, to transport crude oil from Venezuela, Reuters reported. This marks the first time such massive vessels are being used under a new supply arrangement after recent US actions involving capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. These ships can carry 2 million barrel oil than the smaller tankers that were previously being used. The move is expected to lower transportation costs because bigger ships can carry more oil in a single trip. It will also help ease the shortage of smaller tankers that were handling most of Venezuela’s exports in recent months. Deliveries using these large vessels are expected to begin in March and could make the supply process faster and more efficient. According to the report, at least three VLCCs — Nissos Kea, Nissos Kythnos and Arzanah — have been booked by global traders Vitol and Trafigura for March loading.
Govt mandates sale of E20 fuel across India
Centre has mandated the sale of ethanol-blended petrol with up to 20 per cent ethanol and a minimum Research Octane Number (RON) of 95 across all states and Union Territories from April 1, 2026. In a February 17 notification, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas directed oil marketing companies to sell ethanol-blended motor spirit (E20) conforming to Bureau of Indian Standards specifications and having a minimum RON of 95. The government may grant exceptions in special situations for specific regions and limited durations. The move is aimed at reducing crude oil imports, lowering emissions and supporting farmers by boosting demand for sugarcane, maize and other agricultural produce used in ethanol production. Ethanol is a renewable, domestically produced fuel derived from sugarcane, maize or grain, and burns cleaner than pure petrol. India achieved 10 per cent ethanol blending in petrol in June 2022, five months ahead of schedule. Encouraged by the progress, the government advanced the target of 20 per cent blending to 2025-26 from 2030. Most fuel stations now retail E20. The insistence on a minimum RON of 95 is intended to prevent engine knocking and potential damage. RON measures a fuel’s resistance to pre-ignition or knocking, uneven fuel combustion that can cause a pinging sound, loss of power and long-term engine harm. The higher the RON, the greater the resistance to knocking.
India reduced LNG imports by 8 per cent in 2025
India imported 25.589 million tons of LNG in 2025 (33 billion cubic meters after regasification), which is 8% less than in 2024 (27.869 million tons), according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry. In 2025, during the summer peak of demand – in May, June, and July – the air temperature in the country was noticeably lower than the extreme values of 2024, which could limit the appetites of LNG importers. If we ignore the high base of 2024, LNG supplies to India show steady growth in the long term: 22 million tons of LNG were received in 2023 and 20 million tons in 2022. Currently, seven receiving terminals with a total capacity of 47.7 million tons per year are operating in the republic. By the end of 2025, India ranks fifth in the world in terms of imports, following China, Japan, South Korea and France. A year earlier, it bypassed France (26 million tons in 2024 and 32 million tons in 2025). In 2025, more than 2/5 of the volume was supplied from Qatar – 10.924 million tons (-4%). This is followed by the United States (2.792 million tons, -48%), the United Arab Emirates (2.495 million tons, -21%), Angola (1.756 million tons, -16%), Nigeria (1.703 million tons, +19%), Oman (1.658 million tons, +26%). There are no direct LNG supplies from Russia to India. At the same time, five shipments from Cameroon arrived in the country. Gas is supplied from Cameroon to India under a swap scheme within the Gazprom Marketing & Trading portfolio (after the company was confiscated from Gazprom by Germany, the company changed its name to SEFE), while gas from Yamal LNG is sent to other destinations.
Indian Refiners’ January Crude Processing Fell In January
Indian refiners’ crude processing (throughput) fell by 0.2% month-on-month in January 2026, reaching 5.63 million barrels per day (bpd) or 23.81 million metric tons, marking a slight decrease after December throughput clocked in at 5.64 million bpd. India’s fuel consumption in January came in at 21.05 million metric tons, down from 21.71 million in December but was nearly 3% up compared to January 2025. India relies on imports for over 80% of its crude supply, primarily sourcing from Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the United States. India’s energy strategy focuses on balancing discounted Russian oil with supplies from the Middle East and the US, while also expanding its list of import partners to ensure energy security. India is actively diversifying its crude sourcing away from Russia, significantly increasing imports from Nigeria and Angola amid intensified U.S. political pressure and tariff threats. The Trump administration has also authorized India to resume direct purchases of Venezuelan oil, primarily as part of a strategy to reduce India’s reliance on Russian crude. The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a general license to Reliance Industries Ltd, India’s largest private refiner, allowing it to purchase, export and refine Venezuelan-origin oil directly, in the aftermath of the U.S. military capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, after which Washington took control of Venezuela’s oil sales. For Indian refiners, Venezuelan heavy crude is attractive because it is sold at a discount and is compatible with complex refining facilities such as Reliance’s Jamnagar complex. India is projected to be the largest driver of global oil demand growth over the long-term. The country’s oil demand is expected to rise from roughly 5.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 to over 6.6 mb/d by 2030 and potentially 13.7 mb/d by 2050, with India capturing nearly half of all additional global barrels produced.
India’s Oil Import Dependence Climbs to Nearly 89% as Domestic Output Lags
India is growing more dependent on imports of crude oil, with the total share of imports in its oil consumption reaching 88.6% over the first ten months of its current fiscal year, which ends on March 31. The data, from the country’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell, a division of the oil ministry, reflects challenges in boosting domestic oil production despite significant government support in that direction. India last month launched a licensing round for 50 oil and gas blocks in a bid to draw more foreign investment into its energy industry as demand continues to grow steadily. It is also building out wind and solar capacity to keep up with demand growth. In January, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that India’s energy sector offers $500 billion in investment opportunities, including in exploration, refining, and LNG. “Our energy sector is at the heart of our aspirations. It offers investment opportunities worth $500 billion. Therefore, my appeal is: Make in India, innovate in India, Scale with India, Invest in India,” Modi said in an address at the India Energy Week 2026. By the end of this decade, India aims to raise investments in the oil and gas sector to $100 billion and targets to expand the scope of exploration to one million square kilometers. The Prime Minister noted that more than 170 blocks have already been awarded, and the Andaman and Nicobar basin is emerging as the next hydrocarbon hotspot. In 2024, India surpassed China as the world’s largest oil demand driver, amid growing demand for fuel transportation in India and slowing gasoline and diesel demand in China due to the advance of electric vehicles and LNG-fueled trucks in the world’s top crude oil importer. As demand has grown, so have imports, breaking records last fiscal year and on track to break them again this fiscal year. In January, preliminary data suggested that imports were about to hit an all-time high, reaching 5.2 million barrels daily as local refiners sought to diversify away from Russian crude.
Russian Oil Shipments Climb 6% Above Pre-2022 Invasion Levels
Russia is exporting crude oil at rates higher than before its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the barrage of Western sanctions that followed it, many targeting specifically the oil industry. Four years after those events, Russia is exporting oil at 6% higher levels than before that, Finland-based think tank Centre for Research on Clean Air said in a report, as cited by AFP. “We’ve seen a significant drop in Russian fossil fuel export earnings as a result of new measures and greater enforcement,” one of the authors of the report, analyst Isaac Levi, told the publication. However, he added, “there are still significant loopholes and areas that have been unaddressed by sanctioning countries.” “We propose a ban of imports from any refinery or storage terminal that has received a shipment of Russian oil in the previous six months,” Levi said. Imposing such a ban, though, is much easier said than done because of its potential impact on international prices and the economies of oil-importing countries, including most of Europe, India, and China—the latter two being Russia’s biggest oil customers. Despite an overall increase in Russian oil flows abroad, the Centre for Research on Clean Air also reported that in the 12 months to February 24, these flows had dipped by 6%, with oil export revenues also down, by a more sizable 18%. The total annual export volume stood at 215 million tons, while revenues came in at 85.5 billion euros, equal to some $100.73 billion. Pere CREA, as much as 93% of Russia’s oil exports went to China, India, and Turkey. India has now started to dial down its imports of crude from Russia under pressure from the United States, which slapped a 25% tariff on Indian imports as “punishment” for its continued buying of Russian oil. As a result, China has now been buying even more oil from Russia, not least because of the deep discounts that the Indian squeeze has prompted.