India’s average crude oil import cost fell below $60 a barrel on Monday, among the lowest it has been in five years despite global geopolitical upheavals and sanctions against three major crude oil suppliers—Iran, Russia and Venezuela.
The daily average price of various crude grades (popularly known as Indian basket) dipped to $59.29 a barrel on January 5. The last time, the daily average price of Indian basket stood below $60 was on February 5, 2021 (at $59.34). The Indian basket of crude oil represents a cocktail of sour grade and sweet grade of crude oil processed in Indian refineries.
The research report prepared by the State Bank of India (SBI) said on Monday that crude oil prices would “soften significantly in 2026” to touch $50 per barrel by June 2026. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast a fall in oil prices to $55 a barrel in 2026.
“We forecast the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and remain near that price for the rest of next year,” EIA’s short-term energy outlook said in its report published on December 9, 2025. Falling oil prices are good for India, which imports more than 88% crude oil it processes.