Citi sees Brent crude at $60 by year-end as OPEC+ ramps up production
Citi analysts on Friday forecast Brent crude oil prices would fall to $60 per barrel by year-end and average $62 per barrel between the second and fourth quarters of 2026, citing OPEC+ production increases and China’s stockpiling. The bank revised its global liquids balance outlook after OPEC+ announced plans to unwind an additional 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) of voluntary cuts starting in October 2025. Citi said that could lead to stock builds of 1.1 mb/d in 2025 and 2.1 mb/d in 2026, adding slack to an already-loosening global supply. By end-2026, Citi estimates global liquids inventories could climb to 10.9 billion barrels, equivalent to 103 days of forward demand cover. Under a bear case scenario, Citi assigned a 30% probability of Brent prices falling below $60 per barrel, potentially to $50, on weaker global demand, faster growth in non-OPEC supply, and lower compliance among OPEC+ members. Its bullish scenario, with a 10% probability, could push Brent prices above $75 on increased geopolitical disruption. Global oil demand is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2025 and 1 mb/d in 2026, though trade disputes could trim diesel consumption by as much as 0.3 mb/d. Citi reaffirmed its Brent target of $60 per barrel over the next 6 to 12 months. Brent crude futures were trading at $66.93 a barrel by 1024 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures at $62.92.
Switching LPG connections the mobile telephony way, PNGRB seeks views
Can households draw cooking gas connections from another distributor or PSU oil company other than one catering to them just like the how it works in the mobile telephony space? Imminently so, with Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board inviting stakeholder and consumer comments for an LPG interoperability framework. Behind the move are persistent consumer grievances — more than 1.7 million annually as a high-level expert committee noted recently — primarily relating to delay in getting liquefied petroleum gas refills, PNGRB said in a public notice. Seeking to highlight the importance of such a framework, the regulator said while the oil marketing companies do strive to address customer grievances, the consumers do not have option of migrating from one OMC/LPG dealer to another. While the interoperability has been adopted in telephony with much success, the same has not happened in LPG sector,” it said. Citing reports that highlighted supply disruptions and prolonged delay in refill deliveries, either due to operational constraints or suspension of the distributorship, the regulator said safeguarding consumers against service failures and ensuring uninterrupted access to this essential fuel is necessary. There may be other reasons too – consumer’s freedom of choice on the LPG company/dealer being one, especially when the cylinder price is same. PNGRB said it was seeking measures to facilitate timely access to refills — by enabling consumers to be served from the nearest available distributor through improved coordination and flexible delivery arrangements within the existing network, particularly during times of disruption. While porting of LPG connections by consumers was discussed in the past, the measure was given up. Moving over to another distributor or company involve surrendering the equipment and some cost to the consumers. When it is done during times of disruption and as a temporary measure there will practical issues, especially on how refills and pressure regulator, which differ from one company to another, are deposited to the concerned company, sources in the industry said. PNGRB, however, seem to view LPG interoperability framework as a solution. India has achieved near-universal LPG household coverage with over 320 million connections as of 2024-25. This is a commendable achievement of the OMCs. However, consumer grievances remain, it said.
India’s crude oil output slips 0.6% in Aug; import bill falls to $9.4 bn
India’s crude oil and condensate production fell 0.6 per cent to 2.4 million metric tonnes (MMT) in August 2025 while the country’s net oil and gas import bill declined to USD 9.4 billion from USD 11.4 billion a year earlier, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). Of the total domestic output, 75.3 per cent came from nomination fields, 13.7 per cent from pre-NELP fields and 10.8 per cent from NELP fields Crude oil processing rose 3 per cent year-on-year to 22.3 MMT in August. State-run and joint venture refiners processed 15 MMT, while private refiners handled 7.3 MMT. Out of the total, 2.2 MMT was indigenous crude and 20.1 MMT imported. For April–August of the current fiscal, crude processing grew 1.8 per cent compared to the same period last year. Crude oil imports declined 2.9 per cent in August but were up 0.7 per cent in April–August. Imports of crude were valued at USD 9.9 billion, LNG imports at USD 1.2 billion, while exports of petroleum products were USD 3.5 billion in August. Brent crude averaged USD 68.21 per barrel in August compared to USD 70.99 in July and USD 80.91 in August 2024. The Indian basket crude price averaged USD 69.11 a barrel in August against USD 70.95 in July and USD 78.27 a year earlier.
Oil India sees restart of Mozambique LNG project by year’s end
India’s state-run Oil India Ltd expects a $20-billion, TotalEnergies-operated Mozambique liquefied natural gas project in which it owns a stake to restart development by the end of this year, its chairman Ranjit Rath said on Thursday. TotalEnergies halted construction of the project and imposed force majeure in 2021 following a deadly attack on the site by Islamic State-linked insurgents. “With improved security conditions, the project is expected to restart in the second half of 2025 and is well-positioned to meet the growing demand of the Indian gas market,” Rath said at its annual shareholder meet. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said in June he expected development to resume “this summer”. TotalEnergies is the project operator with a 26.5 per cent stake, followed by Mitsui & Co with 20 per cent, while Mozambique’s state-owned ENH has 15 per cent. Indian state firms ONGC Videsh, Bharat PetroResources and Oil India together hold 30 per cent in the project, with Thailand’s PTTEP owning the remainder. Explorer Oil India also holds a minority stake in the Vankorneft and Taas-Yuryakh projects in Russia. Rath said Oil India has received dividends equivalent to 91 per cent of its investment in the Russian projects. “A highlight of the year was the robust dividend flow from Russian assets, amounting to $942 million, representing over 91 per cent of our original investment in Vankorneft and Taas-Yuryakh, with full recovery expected in the coming year,” he said.