India’s Russian crude buying has to stop, US adviser Navarro says
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said India’s purchases of Russian crude were funding Moscow’s war in Ukraine and had to stop, adding that New Delhi was “now cozying up to both Russia and China.” “If India wants to be treated as a strategic partner of the U.S., it needs to start acting like one,” Navarro wrote in an opinion piece published in the Financial Times. India’s Foreign Ministry has previously said the country is being unfairly singled out for buying Russian oil while the United States and European Union continue to purchase goods from Russia. U.S. President Donald Trump an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods earlier this month, citing New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil, taking total tariffs on imports from India to 50%. “India acts as a global clearinghouse for Russian oil, converting embargoed crude into high-value exports while giving Moscow the dollars it needs,” Navarro said. The adviser also said it was risky to transfer cutting-edge U.S. military capabilities to India as New Delhi was “now cozying up to both Russia and China.” Longtime rivals China and India are quietly and cautiously strengthening ties against the backdrop of Trump’s unpredictable approach to both. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of the month while Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit India from Monday for talks on the disputed border between the two countries. A planned visit by U.S. trade negotiators to New Delhi from August 25-29 has been called off, a source said over the weekend, delaying talks on a proposed trade agreement and dashing hopes of relief from additional U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from August 27.
Natural Gas Could Be Angola’s Next Big Money Maker
Angola is betting big on natural gas developments as a short-term increase in oil production is not expected to last despite the West African country leaving OPEC over capped production. Companies operating in Angola have recently started up two oil projects, but they have also begun to target non-associated offshore gas plays, hoping that a massive gas resource could be waiting to be tapped. Despite the recent oil project startups, Angola’s oil production is expected to drop to about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2027, from over 1.1 million bpd now, officials at the national oil and gas agency ANPG have told Reuters. At the same time, natural gas output is set to jump by 2030, per ANPG estimates. Increased gas output will raise Angola’s LNG exports as developers offshore Africa bet big on natural gas to export to Europe and Asia. A recent large gas discovery year could be one of many gas plays that could underpin a jump in LNG exports and state revenues from gas. Last month, Azule Energy, a joint venture of international majors BP and Eni, discovered a major natural gas reservoir offshore Angola in the first gas-targeting exploration well in the oil-producing country. Initial assessments suggest gas volumes in place could exceed 1 trillion cubic feet, with up to 100 million barrels of associated condensate, Azule Energy said, adding that these results “confirm the presence of a working hydrocarbon system and open new exploration opportunities in the area.” Azule Energy CEO, Adriano Mongini, commented: “This is a landmark moment for gas exploration in Angola. Gajajeira-01 is the country’s first dedicated gas exploration well, and its success reinforces our confidence in the potential of the Lower Congo Basin.” More recently, Mongini told Reuters that “Given that Angola has a couple of prolific basins, I can imagine that we will be able to find much more reserves of gas.” BP’s EVP production & operations, Gordon Birrell, highlighted the Angola discovery and its potential on the Q2 earnings call. “Under the Azule brand, we had a discovery in Gajajeira in block 1/14, pretty close to shore, very developable. So West Africa remains an exciting area for us in terms of exploration,” Birrell told analysts. The exciting gas discovery comes as Angola struggles to materially boost oil production even after exiting OPEC in January 2024, following a spat with the OPEC and OPEC+ members about production quotas. Angola’s oil production peaked in 2008 at about 2 million bpd. Output has declined in recent years, due to underinvestment in offshore resources due to higher development costs, which have prompted many companies to overlook the African oil producer as an investment destination. Azule Energy and TotalEnergies started up new oil projects last month, but these may not be enough to offset a decline in maturing fields. Azule Energy announced at the end of July the successful startup and first oil production from the Agogo FPSO. Combined, the Agogo and the Ndungu fields have estimated reserves of about 450 million barrels, with projected peak production of 175,000 barrels per day, produced via two FPSOs (Agogo and Ngoma). Also at the end of July, TotalEnergies launched oil production from the BEGONIA and CLOV Phase 3 offshore projects via subsea tiebacks to FPSOs to add a total of 60,000 barrels a day of new production. Still, Angola’s oil revenues have dropped this year due to falling oil prices. Revenues from oil declined by 4% from the first quarter to $5.6 billion in the second quarter, according to government data. LNG and gas exports meanwhile, earned $755 million in the second quarter. Now the BP-Eni Azule venture is close to launching first gas from the New Gas Consortium (NGC) project after completing early this year the Quiluma and Maboqueiro offshore platforms in a “significant step forward in Angola’s first non-associated gas development.” The NGC project is a joint venture between Azule Energy, Sonangol E&P, Chevron, and TotalEnergies. “Development of (NGC’s) Quiluma and Maboqueiro fields, due to launch around end-2025, is the real litmus test for gas monetisation in Angola,” Jimmy Boulter, an analyst at Enverus, told Reuters.
U.S. LNG: Record Exports, Rising Prices, and a Looming Problem
U.S. LNG exports so far this year have smashed yet another record, prices are on the rise without sapping demand, and the outlook remains robust. But there’s a hitch: pipelines. Exports of liquefied natural gas from the United States between January and August this year went up by 22% from the first eight months of 2024, Reuters’ Gavin Maguire reported this week, citing data from Kpler as showing exports reached 69 million tons. This was 12.4 million tons more than U.S. LNG producers exported last year. The report also noted that domestic demand for natural gas increased significantly, notably from corporate and industrial consumers. This has naturally led to higher gas prices at home, although these are still palpably lower than the heights reached in 2022 and 2023. This made no difference to European buyers, however, because total U.S. LNG exports to Europe soared by 61% from a year earlier. The substantial increase was driven by much more depleted gas storage at the end of the latest heating season that required more purchases to refill; lower wind power generation and hydropower output, and, of course, the European Union’s pledge to buy a lot more U.S. energy to try to reduce its trade surplus with the U.S. The cost burden of this increase in LNG imports is yet to make itself known, but in the meantime, it seems Europe will continue buying all the U.S. LNG it can get its hands on, even though prices reached an average of $8.34 per thousand cu ft over the first eight months of the year, Reuters’ Maguire reported. Prices may well continue higher, according to the Energy Information Administration, which cited data centers and LNG exports as drivers of this rise, which it sees as substantial and about to manifest this winter and next year. Normally, the reason for rising prices is an imbalance between supply and demand. Indeed, demand for U.S. natural gas is on a strong upward trajectory both at home and abroad, so the reason for the rising prices must be supply, which has yet to catch up with demand—except supply is smashing records as well. Reuters this week reported, citing LSEG data, that natural gas production in the Lower 48 had gone up to 108.1 billion cu ft daily since the start of August, breaking the record it set in July, at 107.9 billion cu ft. However, demand for this gas is higher, at 111.9 billion cu ft this week, per the LSEG data. This means that supply is, indeed, catching up with demand. At least it should be, but there is a problem. Pipelines. There have been warnings before from industry executives that gas export growth needs new pipelines to help bring the commodity from the field to the LNG trains. The latest to issue those warnings was Cheniere Energy, the U.S. number-one LNG exporter. “It’s not about the availability of gas, it’s about transportation,” Singh said. “How are we actually going to get it there?” Cheniere’s vice president and general manager of the company’s Corpus Christi facility said this week at an industry event. There are about half a dozen new liquefaction facilities currently under construction on the Gulf Coast, but construction of new pipelines is nowhere near a match for this rate of liquefaction capacity growth, as suggested by Cheniere’s Singh. “It’ll be fascinating to see, depending on where these facilities are, how they’re going to be able to get the volume that they need,” she said, adding that “You’re going to need some large lines that are going interstate to be able to do that.” The shortage of pipelines could slow down the U.S. LNG rush and it might slow down the price inflation, which the EIA sees as leading to average Henry Hub prices of $3.90per million British thermal units in the fourth quarter of this year, up from $3.20 per mmBtu in July, rising further to $4.30 per mmBtu in 2026. “Rising natural gas prices reflect relatively flat natural gas production amid an increase in U.S. liquefied natural gas exports,” the EIA said. One reason why gas production may remain flat is precisely the absence of additional pipeline capacity to take the gas to where it is needed. There is also the additional challenge of the Trump administration’s decision to boost self-sufficiency in LNG carriers—of which there are currently none. Under new mandates proposed by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), beginning in 2028, a total of 1% of America’s LNG exports must be carried via U.S.-flagged vessels. From 2029 onwards, 1% of U.S. LNG exports should be shipped on U.S.-flagged and U.S.-built vessels. There is currently only one LNG tanker transporting U.S. gas under a U.S. flag. The industry has warned that these mandates would hinder growth in LNG exports, especially the one about locally built tankers. According to industry insiders, this would cost two to four times as much as building the carriers in South Korea or China.
BPCL expects Russian crude to form 35% of imports for FY26
State-owned Bharat Petroleum Corp expects its Russian crude to form 35% of its total imports for the remaining year of FY26 as long as there are no new sanctions on Russian oil, the company said in an analyst call. “We are expecting again the flow (of Russian oil) should come back to normal level of 30-35%. As long as there is no new sanction on Russian oil, our procurement strategy will be 30-35% of Russian crude for the remaining year,” the company said. In the first quarter of the current fiscal year 2025-26, the company procured 34% of Russian crude. The company also informed that discounts on Russian oil have come down to the level of $1.5 per barrel. The discounts stood at $18-20/bbl at the beginning period of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. “This quarter our Russian crude procurement is about 34%. In terms of inventory levels, we have kept a little bit more inventory in the months of March and April because of geopolitical issues. Our inventory levels during March 2025 was 2.9 million tonnes whereas generally we keep 2.3-2.4 MMT,” the company said.
‘Selective bullying’: US punishes India, but its own trade with Russia grows 20% under Trump
Even as Washington slaps tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, US trade with Moscow has surged 20 percent since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. The contradiction was spotlighted at the August 15 Alaska summit, where Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met for the first time in a historic bid to resolve the Ukraine war. While no ceasefire emerged, Putin announced a rebound in bilateral commerce. “Incidentally, when the new administration came to power, bilateral trade started to grow. It’s still very symbolic. Still, we have a growth of 20%. As I’ve said, we have a lot of dimensions for joint work. It is clear that the U.S. and Russian investment and business cooperation has tremendous potential,” Putin said. He added that opportunities existed in “trade, digital, high tech, and in space exploration.” Trump described the talks as “extremely productive” but insisted “there’s no deal until there’s a deal.” He said “many points” were agreed upon but “a couple of big ones” remained unresolved, promising to brief NATO allies and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Putin, however, framed the outcome as a “new stage” in relations, with trade serving as a foundation for “business-like and pragmatic ties.”
Caught in the Trump-Putin game of chicken: India’s Russian oil imports’ future and options
The additional tariff announced by US President Donald Trump on import of Indian goods over New Delhi’s hefty Russian oil imports has thrown up questions on the potential consequences for India as it walks a diplomatic tightrope amid trade uncertainties and the unfolding game of chicken between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The stakes are high for India and it is sure to negotiate with the US on Russian oil imports, hoping to get Trump to reverse the tariff penalty. At the very least, India would try and work out a calibrated reduction of oil imports from Russia over an extended period, instead of a complete halt in purchases. After all, New Delhi also values its special relationship with Moscow. In that context, Trump and Putin’s planned Alaska summit, should it ease the strain between the US and Russia, could provide some relief to India on the Russian oil issue. weeks, significant imports of Russian crude by Indian refiners surfaced as a major point of friction for the Donald Trump administration in its relationship with New Delhi. On August 6, Trump announced that an additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods—on top of the 25 per cent tariff already announced—would take effect after 21 days. New Delhi described this targeting of India over its acquisition of Russian oil as “unjustified and unreasonable”. India stated that these imports commenced because its traditional energy supplies were diverted to Europe after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Furthermore, India asserted that the US had “actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy markets stability” The renewed pressure from the US and other Western powers—pressuring Russia’s top trade partners to cut down on imports from the country—are aimed at forcing the Kremlin’s hand into ending the Ukraine war. For Trump, who wants the over three-year-old Russia-Ukraine war to end within days, this is an opportune time to pressure India over its Russian imports, given that New Delhi and Washington are locked in sensitive trade pact negotiations. Experts also see it as a ploy by Trump to extract a more favourable trade deal from India.
US may not impose additional 25 percent tariffs on India
The Donald Trump administration may not impose secondary tariffs on India over purchasing Russian energy, as the US President said that Russia has already lost a key oil client. Speaking to Fox News aboard Air Force One en route to Alaska, Trump said the US may not impose secondary tariffs on countries continuing to buying Russian crude oil. “Well, he (Vladimir Putin) lost an oil client, so to speak, which is India, which was doing about 40 per cent of the oil. China, as you know, is doing a lot…,” said Trump. “And if I did what’s called a secondary sanction, or a secondary tariff, it would be very devastating from their standpoint. If I have to do it, I’ll do it. Maybe I won’t have to do it,” he added. The secondary 25 per cent tariffs on India are likely to come into effect from August 27. Earlier this week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said if “things don’t go well” between Trump and Putin at the Alaska summit, then secondary sanctions on India for purchasing Russian oil could go higher. Meanwhile, the government has already said the targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable. “Like any major economy, India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security,” it said. The fact is that India has sharply increased its purchases of oil and gas from America. This, in turn, has led to a reduction in India’s trade surplus with the US, which is a major aim of the Trump administration’s trade policy. Official figures show that India’s oil and gas imports from the US have jumped by as much as 51 per cent from January to June this year. The country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the US nearly doubled to $2.46 billion in the financial year 2024-25 from $1.41 billion in 2023-24.