India to lead global oil demand: S&P Global
Even as long-term global oil demand is projected to decline due to alternative energy adoption and efficiency gains, India is expected to lead the global oil demand growth, as per S&P Global Commodity Insights. The growth in demand will, however, increase the country’s import dependency, reinforcing the need for a diversified crude sourcing strategy amid inadequate domestic supplies. US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on all trading partners have introduced significant economic uncertainty, potentially reducing global GDP growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025, the agency said. This, S&P forecasts, could cut oil demand growth from 1.2 million barrels per day to 0.8 million b/d in 2025, with the possibility of zero or negative growth in the second half of the year. “Demand from China and the US, is expected to be most affected, particularly for refined products like diesel and jet fuel. Meanwhile, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised output by 411,000 b/d for May–July 2025, triggering a 20% drop in Brent prices,” said Premasish Das, Executive Director for Oil Markets Research and Analysis, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “The increase, driven by frustration among compliant producers, may be offset if overproducers like Iraq, Russia, and Kazakhstan reduce their output,” he added. S&P now forecasts an average Brent price of $68/barrel for 2025, up from $63/barrel earlier, but expects a decline below $60/bbl by year-end due to strong supply growth. Geopolitics is now central to trade forecasts and corporate strategy, noted Rahul Kapoor, Vice President and Global Head of Shipping Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Petrol sales rise 6.4% in June; diesel up 1.2%
Petrol sales increased 6.4% year-on-year in June, while diesel sales went up 1.2%, according to provisional data provided by the petroleum and natural gas ministry. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) sales increased 3.6% year-on-year in June. The consumption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), used primarily for cooking, surged 10.2%. For the April-June quarter, petrol sales registered 6.9% growth, while diesel sales went up 2.5%. Jet fuel consumption increased 3.9%, and cooking gas saw a 10.1% surge during the quarter. Summer holidays supported petrol sales, while diesel demand appears to have been affected by the early onset of monsoon. ATF sales have slowed this financial year after increasing nearly 9% in 2024-25. Diesel accounts for nearly 40% of the total refined products consumed in the country. The fuel’s sales are influenced by economic activity, rainfall and the adoption of alternative energy sources.
Crude oil prices back at $67/barrel, likely to remain stable: Minister Puri
Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri on Tuesday said crude oil prices are back at USD 67 per barrel and are likely to remain around that level. Speaking at the 77th Foundation Day of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI), Puri also said India increased biofuel blending and is sourcing crude oil from 40 countries as against 27 earlier. He said when the tensions were at their peak in the Gulf region recently, many tried to be alarmist about the crude oil prices moving northwards. “I said nothing will happen. Oil prices sahi rahenge (will remain stable). Don’t worry. And the price of oil is back to USD 67 a barrel. Why do I say that? …there is enough oil available in the world,” the minister said. Moreover, Puri added India has diversified its crude oil sourcing. “We used to buy oil from 27 countries, we are buying it from 40 countries,” he said. The minister also spoke in detail about the achievements made by the country in bio-fuel blending, and meeting targets ahead of schedule. “We are the second-highest biofuel blending nation in the world. And today, when I look at it, any day you could raise it from 20 per cent to 25 per cent and 30 per cent. You have to just do your consultation and take what is along,” he said. Puri further said green hydrogen is the fuel of the future. In his address, the minister also listed the achievements of the Modi government during the past 11 years. He said the ministry’s flagship Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, has delivered over 16.5 crore LPG connections since 2014, empowering women, reducing indoor air pollution, and promoting public health. The growing market capitalisation of Oil & Gas PSUs-nearly doubling to Rs 8.79 lakh crore since 2014-reflects the sector’s robust performance and the trust of investors, he said. He further said that in the past 11 years, India has risen from the eleventh to the fourth largest economy in the world. He said India’s GDP has more than doubled-from USD 2.1 trillion in 2014 to USD 4.3 trillion in 2025. “We have recently overtaken Japan and are poised to become the third-largest economy by 2030, overtaking Germany,” the minister said while highlighting the country’s resilience during global headwinds and the critical role played by bold policy reforms, extensive social welfare schemes, and sound financial management. The Minister called on chartered accountants to embrace artificial intelligence and advanced analytics, automating routine tasks to focus on strategic advisory roles and harnessing data-driven insights for more effective decision-making. “Embracing AI is no longer optional-it is essential for staying competitive and innovative in today’s evolving financial world,” he said. Puri urged the ICAI community to uphold transparency, efficiency, and accountability as India marches towards a developed nation by 2047. Speaking at the occasion, ICAI President Charanjot Singh Nanda said that from 1700 members to over 4 lakh members spanning across 47 countries, the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India has grown a long way in the last 77 years. “As a trusted partner in nation building ICAI has always supported the Government initiatives contributing to India’s journey towards becoming a Viksit Bharat. Our profession is evolving rapidly, with AI, blockchain, and big data, the tools may change, but our values must remain constant,” Nanda said.
India plans new strategic oil reserve to enhance energy security
India is exploring building three new strategic oil reserves to boost its emergency stockpile and strengthen energy security, the head of the company in charge of strategic reserves said on Wednesday. India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer, imports more than 80% of its oil needs and is constantly diversifying its crude sources to mitigate the impact of geopolitical crises on its oil procurement. State-run engineering consultancy Engineers India Ltd is doing feasibility studies to build the new reserves, Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserve Ltd’s CEO L R Jain told Reuters. “In case of exigencies, we will be better prepared,” he said. India currently has strategic petroleum reserves at three locations – Mangalore, Padur and Vizag – in southern India to store up to 5.33 million tons of crude that could be tapped in the case of supply disruptions. It plans to create a new 5.2 million-5.3 million ton reserve at salt caverns at Bikaner in the desert state of Rajasthan, and a 1.75-million ton facility at Mangalore in southern Karnataka state, he said. It will also create a reserve in Bina, central Madhya Pradesh state, with capacity yet to be decided, he said. After feasibility studies, the projects will require approval from the federal cabinet. They will come in addition to a new 2.5 million-ton strategic petroleum reserve at Padur and a 4 million-ton facility at Chandikhol in eastern Odisha state that have already been approved. India has over the years overhauled its policy on strategic petroleum reserves to allow private participation and commercialisation, mirroring the model adopted by countries such as Japan and South Korea which allow private lessees, mostly oil majors, to trade the crude. “We are looking for 90 days of reserves,” Jain said. “And Indian fuel demand is also rising, so we need additional storage.” Expanding oil storage capacity would also help India join the International Energy Agency, which requires its members to hold a minimum of 90 days of oil consumption. India’s storage capacity, including that held by companies and in transit, is currently sufficient to meet its fuel demand for 75 days.
China Continues to Buy a Lot of Iranian Crude Oil
Chinese refiners continue to buy high volumes of crude oil from Iran, with first-half imports at the major port clusters estimated at nearly 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), according to oil flow tracking data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg. Ports near industrial clusters Qingdao, Dalian, and Zhoushan are importing crude from Iran in several legs from the Persian Gulf via Malaysia with ship-to-ship (STS) transfers using shadow fleet vessels and tankers blacklisted by the United States. Officially, China’s customs data show there haven’t been any crude imports from Iran since 2022. Unofficially, China buys nearly 90% of all of Iran’s crude exports in multiple-stage journeys and transfers from one tanker to another. Last month alone, ports near Qingdao welcomed a total of 15.5 million barrels of Iranian crude, according to Kpler’s data. These barrels were worth nearly $1 billion in revenue for Iran at current prices for its discounted crude, Bloomberg has estimated. China hiked its imports of crude oil from Iran in June, as Iran accelerated loadings in May and independent Chinese refiners bought more discounted Iranian barrels. Amid overall high imports in recent weeks, thanks to the lower oil prices in April and May when cargoes were bought, China significantly boosted its imports of crude from Iran this month, according to data from tanker-tracking firms cited by Reuters. The high volumes of Iranian oil going into China is due to multi-year high Iranian crude oil loadings in May and Chinese independent refiners, the so-called teapots, bringing in more supply of the cheaper Iranian crude to fill inventories for the peak summer demand season. Analysts expect Chinese oil imports from Iran to remain at high levels in the coming weeks amid signals from the U.S. Administration that it would be more lenient toward China buying Iran’s oil. Following the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the US, also.