Iraq’s Oil Exports to India Topped $29 Billion in 2024
OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, exported crude oil and petroleum products worth $29.58 billion to India last year, trade data reported by Shafaq News showed on Tuesday. Iraq, which was India’s top crude oil supplier before 2022 and the flow of cheap Russian oil, unwanted or banned in the West, held in 2024 a market share of about 20% of all crude oil imports into India, the world’s third-largest crude importer. Total Iraqi crude and refined petroleum product exports to India were valued at $29.58 billion, of which $28.6 billion was crude oil, refined products and derivatives accounted for $1.77 billion of the trade, and petroleum coke, bitumen, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports were valued at $223.5 million, according to the trade data reported by Shafaq News. Over the past four years, Iraqi crude and product exports to India have grown by 15% each year. However, Iraq is now India’s second-biggest crude supplier, surpassed by Russia, whose cheap oil has gained a lot of market share in India after Russia diverted crude exports to China and India in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Western embargoes and sanctions on Russia’s oil exports and trade. The share of OPEC crude supply in India slumped to an all-time low of below 50% of India’s crude oil imports in the 2024-2025 fiscal year, as Russian oil flows continued to rise and dent the share of the Middle Eastern producers. Russia is an ally of OPEC in the OPEC+ agreements to “stabilize the market,” but it has been eating into the share of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and other major Middle Eastern OPEC producers in India. The price-sensitive Indian buyers have preferred cheap Russian crude supply, when available. India will continue to buy Russian oil if it is sold below the $60 per barrel price cap and delivered on non-sanctioned tankers and without any involvement of sanctioned companies or individuals, Indian officials said earlier this year after the U.S. sanctions in January created market chaos for several weeks before tanker supply chains adapted.
The Market Is Well Supplied – So Why Is Saudi Arabia Raising Oil Prices?
OPEC+ served two surprises to the oil trading world in a matter of weeks. First, it said it would bring back three times the amount of oil supply it planned to originally in May. Then, it said it would repeat the exercise in June. And then it emerged that Saudi Arabia is raising selling prices for Asia when it would have made more sense to cut them, on the face of it. OPEC+ is in the spotlight and it’s probably enjoying it as prices slide further down and U.S. shale drillers curb activity. OPEC+ said in April it would add 411,000 bpd to its collective output in May, throwing the oil market in disarray after curbing supply for months in a bid to prop up oil prices. The move was such a reversal of tactics that it was quite understandable that it took everyone by surprise. Prices fell. Speculation abounded, with analysts suggesting anything from Saudi Arabia doing Trump’s bidding to being so desperate they’d opted for flooding the market in the tried and tested method of dealing with competition in a rather final way. Officially, OPEC+ members that have been cutting their output said that the market fundamentals were healthy enough to absorb not one but two monthly boosts of 411,000 bpd each. Unofficially, the story is that the Saudis got fed up with the Iraqis and the Kazakhs who have been overproducing pretty much since the production cuts began. Kazakhstan really annoyed Riyadh, per that story, by not just overproducing but reaching record-high output levels earlier this year. Some cited data about Asian crude oil imports as evidence that OPEC+ is trying to pump up a narrative that does not reflect reality. The argument is that imports into the biggest demand region are weakening and global inventories are only slightly below the five-year average. So, we have a pretty well-supplied market, and OPEC+ is shooting itself in the leg with the output additions. Of course, there is also the oil demand outlook. The oil demand outlook is grim if one follows the International Energy Agency. But Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s leader, does not follow the International Energy Agency. In fact, Saudi Arabia has a serious issue with the IEA and its forecasts, which the Saudis have slammed as blatantly biased in favor of the energy transition. Right now, the demand outlook is widely believed to be grim because of Trump’s tariff offensive against the world of trade. This outlook was a big reason why traders started the selloff in oil that brought prices down and then extended it as OPEC+ surprised said market with its two consecutive decisions to add more to that well-supplied market than initially planned. And then the news came that Saudi Arabia is raising its official selling price for crude for Asian buyers. In other news, OPEC’s total for April was down by 200,000 bpd, and not just because of the sudden slump in Venezuelan production after Chevron was kicked out by Trump. The UAE and Saudi Arabia also cut —and the UAE was given the green light to actually raise production. While traders and analysts try to wrap their heads around the logic guiding OPEC+, oil prices have rebounded because lower prices always and invariably stimulate greater demand for an essential commodity such as crude oil. Brent is back above $60 per barrel, and WTI has recovered to $58. This, of course, does not mean prices can’t fall again and stay fallen for an extended period of time. Perhaps at some point, it would even become officially clear whether the Saudis are doing Trump’s bidding or simply looking after their own interests as they have done repeatedly over the years. In the meantime, OPEC’s competitors will be suffering. This might even be one big reason why the cartel is adding supply if history is any indication.
India’s Natural Gas Challenge: Escaping the vicious price-demand loop
India aims to raise natural gas’s share in its energy mix to 15% by 2030, positioning it as a cleaner alternative to coal and a transitional fuel for a sustainable future. As a “bridge fuel,” it offers lower carbon intensity and supports rising energy needs, but the key question remains: are current efforts enough to meet this goal? Expanding City Gas Distribution (CGD) networks, investing in LNG terminals, and laying thousands of kilo-meters of pipelines certainly suggest unstoppable momentum. The increase from 54 Geographical Areas (GAs) in 2013 to 307 by 2024reflects a remarkable rise achieved through multiple bidding rounds, including the 12th CGD Bidding Round concluded in March 2024, which sought to achieve 100% national CGD coverage. Despite the significant expansion of City Gas Distribution (CGD) coverage following the 9th and 10th bidding rounds, where the majority of newly licensed Geographical Areas (GAs) were concentrated in the eastern, northeastern, and southern regions of India, recent consumption data suggests that gas uptake in these regions remains relatively low. For instance, as of February 2025, Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) data shows that Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, and Chhattisgarh, states that gained coverage in later bidding rounds, record total CGD consumption of just 0.11, 2.94, 2.37, and 0.18 MMSCMD, respectively. In contrast, legacy CGD markets such as Gujarat (372.16 MMSCMD), Maharashtra (230.76 MMSCMD), and Delhi (157.94 MMSCMD) continue to dominate overall demand.