Construction of the $20 Billion Mozambique LNG Project to Resume by Mid-Year
TotalEnergies and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) have noted that the long-awaited Mozambique LNG project is expected to commence implementation in July 2025. The project was halted in March 2021 after militant attacks in Cabo Delgado province, when operator TotalEnergies SE invoked force majeure. The project is now progressing, however, with security becoming better and the U.S. Export-Import Bank reaffirming its $4.7 billion funding pledge. This move is set to revive one of Africa’s most ambitious energy ventures. The Mozambique LNG project has been the recipient of significant foreign investment, with BPCL owning a 10% interest in the project via its subsidiary BPRL Ventures Mozambique BV. While the project is important to many countries, its most significant impact will be experienced by Mozambique itself. With a scheduled end date of July 2028, the development could prove a game-changer for Mozambique’s economy and energy infrastructure, unlocking new avenues to an once-troubled region.
India’s Russian oil imports at 9-month high in April; uptick in US crude volumes
Russian oil flows to India touched a 9-month high in April primarily due to the abundant availability of Moscow’s crude for exports as well as the low oil prices, with the latter ensuring sufficient number non-sanctioned tankers to haul the oil to Indian ports without falling foul of international curbs April also saw India’s oil imports from the United States rise to an eight-month high, evidently on account of strategic trade considerations amid the evolving geopolitical and geoeconomic scenario. India’s Russian oil imports in April rose 2.1 per cent over March to 1.92 million barrels per day (bpd), even as overall oil imports contracted 7.3 per cent sequentially to 4.88 million bpd, per provisional tanker data from commodity market analytics firm Kpler. The share of Russian crude in India’s oil import basket rose to 39.3 per cent in April from 35.7 per cent in March.
Barclays cuts 2025, 2026 Brent crude forecast as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes
Barclays lowered its Brent oil price forecast by $4 per barrel to $66/bbl for 2025 and by $2 to $60/bbl for 2026, citing the decision by OPEC+ to accelerate oil production hikes. “Tariff-related developments have certainly been a drag but the OPEC+ pivot has also been a significant driver of the move lower in oil prices of late,” Barclays said in a noted dated Sunday. OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, agreed to accelerate oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411,000 barrels per day, the group said on Saturday. OPEC+ sources have said Saudi Arabia is pushing the group to accelerate the unwinding of earlier output cuts to punish fellow members Iraq and Kazakhstan for poor compliance with their production quotas. Barclays noted that the OPEC+ decision is more related to strength in underlying fundamentals and external influence than concerns about member overproduction. Brent crude futures fell more than $2 a barrel in early trade on Monday, and traded at $59.20 as of 0250 GMT. Barclays now expects OPEC+ to phase out the additional voluntary adjustments by October 2025, but also expects slightly slower U.S. oil output growth. Overall, this loosens their balance estimates by 290 thousand barrels per day (kbd) for 2025 and 110 kbd for 2026, it said. Barclays also revised its baseline view on OPEC+, expecting the group to continue its accelerated path of phasing out additional voluntary adjustments, and now sees it taking effect in six months from the initial plan of 18. “That would result in 390 kb/d and 230 kb/d increases in our 2025 and 2026 OPEC crude forecasts, respectively,” Barclays said. Barclays now forecasts a decline in U.S. crude output by 100 kbd from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025, and by 150 kbd in 2026.
StanChart Cuts 2025 Oil Price Forecast By $16/bbl Amid Trump’s Tariffs
Previously, we reported that commodity analysts at Standard Chartered were bullish on oil prices in the current year, thanks to strong oil fundamentals, including declining U.S. supply growth and OPEC+ supply discipline. StanChart reported that non-OPEC+ supply growth fell sharply from 2.46 mb/d in 2023 to 0.79 mb/d in 2024, in large part due to a reduction in U.S. total liquids growth, which fell from 1.605 mb/d in 2023 to 734 kb/d in 2024. StanChart predicted this trend will continue over the next two years, with U.S. liquids growth clocking in at just 367 kb/d in 2025 and 151 kb/d in 2026. In contrast, a December survey by Haynes Boone LLC revealed that Wall Street is largely bearish, predicting that oil prices will fall below $60 a barrel by the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s term. Well, it appears that the bears can now take their victory lap, with even perma-bulls like StanChart throwing in the towel. StanChart has conceded there’s little hope for oil bulls, and has cut its 2025 forecast by $16 per barrel (bbl) to $61/bbl and its 2026 forecast by $7/bbl to USD 78/bbl. StanChart contends that the Trump administration will have a hard time convincing the markets that its tariff-based policies are not recessionary, with gloom already spreading in the markets after Washington released a worrying economic report on Wednesday. The U.S. economy shrank -0.3% in the first quarter, marking the first contraction in three years as companies went on a buying spree of foreign goods before Trump’s 90-day pause on final tariffs comes to an end. Thankfully, financial markets avoided going into a meltdown after that report, with the U.S. labor markets remaining relatively healthy. The U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April, slightly lower than 185,000 added in March, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2%. StanChart is also pessimistic about the prospects of some OPEC+ members meeting their output commitments. To wit, the commodity analysts have noted that Kazakhstan has so far been unable to deliver any compensation as earlier agreed. Kazakhstan’s crude output has lately surged, hitting a record high of 2.12 million b/d in February, good for a large 13% increase from January volumes and well above the country’s OPEC+ quota of 1.468 million bpd. Saudi Arabia is mad at quota violators such as Kazakhstan and Iraq for repeatedly exceeding their set targets, and is ready to open the taps. Whereas the current Brent price is more than $30/bbl below the $96.20/bbl that Saudi Arabia requires to balance its books, OPEC’s largest producer has ample alternative funding options it can rely on to weather low oil prices, including issuing sovereign debt or tapping foreign exchange reserves. The experts have also pointed out that Saudi Arabia can take advantage of the low tariff rates on GCC nations by the Trump administration by becoming a regional manufacturing powerhouse. Trump slapped all six GCC nations with 10% tariffs. “As tariffs rise in certain countries, we are likely to see a growing shift of business to the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council], whether through nearshoring or friendshoring,” Adel Hamaizia, a Gulf expert at the Harvard Belfer Center Middle East Initiative, told Middle East Eye. “Saudi Arabia should be sending their trade representatives to the Trump administration right now, asking, ‘What was China providing you. Tell us what it is and we will make it in Saudi Arabia and provide a great trade deal’,” Ellen Wald, founder of the energy consulting firm, Transversal Consulting, told MEE. Manufacturing is a big part of MBS’ Vision 2030. Unlike Europe, Saudi Arabia has ready access to lots of cheap energy, minimal regulations and plenty of open spaces. Further, Saudi Arabia has laid out plans to accelerate its $2.5 trillion mining programs in a bid to diversify its economy and lower its reliance on oil. Mining will play a key role in Riyadh’s strategy to reduce oil dependency, with Saudi Arabia looking to exploit its significant reserves of copper, bauxite, phosphate and gold. Last year, the country’s mining minister, Bandar Al-Khorayef, announced that the Kingdom’s reserve potential had grown to $2.5 trillion, a big 90% jump from the $1.3 trillion forecasted eight years ago. Saudi Arabia has a goal for the mining sector to contribute $75 billion to the country’s economy by 2035, up rom $17 billion currently.