Kazakhstan Is Taking Big Hits As Trump and Putin Feud
Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration has attempted to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, offering a glimmer of hope that the 3-year war could soon come to an end. The U.S. has held separate meetings with Russian and Ukrainian delegations in a bid to reach a lasting deal, but one particular OPEC member is finding itself in the crosshairs of the conflict despite the ongoing peace negotiations. A week ago, Kavkazskaya oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region, part of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), was damaged after drone attacks, with Russia pointing fingers at Ukraine. Back in February, Russia reported that CPC delivery capacity was cut by 40% after an attack by Ukrainian drones. According to the CPC, last year, Kavkazskaya delivered at least 130,000 tons of oil per month and 1.51 million tons for the whole year. The CPC pipeline is the main export route for Kazakhstan, and supplies ~1% of the world’s oil. CPC’s main shareholders include Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX), Shell Plc. (NYSE:SHEL) and Eni S.p.A. (NYSE:E). According to Kazakh journalist Oleg Chervinsky, the CPC was included in Trump’s ceasefire moratorium on strikes from both Russia and Ukraine, suggesting the latest drone attack violation of those terms. However, AP News has pointed to the ambiguity in the moratorium, with Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of non-compliance. Both sides agreed to a limited, 30-day ceasefire, with Russian President Vladimir Putin imposing conditions that essentially meant a Ukrainian surrender. “They sat for 12 hours and seemed to have agreed on a joint statement,” Russia’s deputy chairman of defense committee, Vladimir Chizhov, told Rossiya 24. “However this was not adopted due to Ukraine’s position,” he said. However, it appears that the blame is now on Russia, with Trump reportedly “very angry” with Russian President Vladimir Putin for attacking the credibility of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s credibility. Trump has even threatened to slap 50% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil. “You could say that I was very angry, pissed off, when… Putin started getting into Zelensky’s credibility, because that’s not going in the right location,” Trump said. “New leadership means you’re not gonna have a deal for a long time,” he added. That marks a 180-degree turnaround in Trump’s tone towards the two leaders, after last month he called Zelenskiy a “dictator” and claimed he “started” the war with Russia The continuing attacks on Kazakhstan’s energy infrastructure can have dire ramifications for the country. According to oil and gas analyst Olzhas Baidildinov, last year, the CPC distributed $1.3 billion in dividends in 2024, with approximately $85 million channeled into the state budget while KazMunayGas, Kazakhstan’s national oil company, received ~$250 million. The attacks come at a time when Kazakhstan has been ramping up oil production in a bid to cut its budget deficit. Last month, Kazakhstan’s crude oil and gas condensate–a type of light oil- output hit a record high of 2.12 million barrels per day, good for a large 13% increase from January volumes. Excluding gas condensate, the country’s production increased 15.5% m-o-m to 1.83 million bpd. Kazakhstan’s surge in output was chalked up to increased production at the giant Tengiz oilfield, operated by Tengizchevroil, led by Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX). The U.S. oil and gas giant has embarked on a $48 billion expansion of Tengiz. Previously, Reuters reported that Kazakhstan could dramatically reduce its more than 80% share of oil flows via Russia by sharply increasing crude oil exports out of Turkey’s port of Ceyhan. According to Kazakhstan Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev, the country could ramp up exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to 20 million metric tons a year from the current 1.5 million. However, it’s not clear how Kazakhstan intends to comply with OPEC+ quotas, with its current output significantly above its quota of 1.468 million bpd. Last year, Russia, Kazakhstan and Iraq submitted their compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat, with over-produced volumes expected to be fully compensated through September 2025. Kazakhstan is expected to ‘pay back’ a cumulative 620 kb/d, Russia 480 kb/d and Iraq 1,184 kb/d. Luckily, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that supply surpluses the market feared for much of last year have yet to materialize, with the outlook for Q2 and Q3 suggesting that no surplus is imminent. StanChart has forecast that global demand will exceed supply by 0.9 mb/d in Q2 and by 0.5 mb/d in Q3 while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) sees excess demand at 0.1 mb/d in Q2 and a balanced market in Q3.
Indian Refiners Seek Alternatives to Russian Crude After Trump Tariff Threat
Indian oil refiners have started looking for alternative supplies of crude after President Trump threatened secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports if Moscow refuses to sign a ceasefire deal for the Ukraine. Bloomberg reported that companies such as Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. were looking for oil cargoes from the Middle East, the North Sea, and the Mediterranean for May delivery in anticipation of tariff action. President Trump threatened a 25% tariff on all Russian oil, saying “If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” in an interview for NBC. “That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil,” Trump elaborated. The mechanism would be the same as the one Trump applied to Venezuela, slapping a 25% tariff on all imports from countries that continue buying crude from the South American nation. Such a tariff would be a considerable problem for India, whose dependence on imported crude hit an all-time high in the latest fiscal year. India imported 88.2% of the crude it consumed in the April 2024-February 2025 period, according to oil ministry data released at the end of last month. This is up from 87.7% for the previous fiscal year. Due to this dependence, India is particularly price-sensitive, which is why it stepped up its purchases of Russian oil following the barrage of Western sanctions directed at Russia’s energy industry. Russia is currently India’s biggest single oil supplier.
‘Pissed with Putin,’ Donald Trump threatens tariffs on Russian oil exports; India, China in crossfire
President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a second wave of sanctions on Russian oil exports, which could have profound implications for countries like India and China, which have grown reliant on Russian oil since the onset of the Ukraine war. Trump’s comments, made during a phone interview with NBC News, suggest that the US President would consider “secondary tariffs” on Russian oil and its buyers if a ceasefire with Ukraine can’t be reached “I was pissed off about it. But if a deal isn’t made, and if I think it was Russia’s fault, I’m going to put secondary sanctions on Russia,” Trump told NBC, saying he meant “all oil coming out of Russia.” He said he plans to speak to Putin this week. According to Bloomberg, the US President expressed his frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putinduring the call, particularly after the Russian leader suggested ways to install new leadership in Ukraine.
Regulator proposes tweak in pipeline tariffs; CNG and piped gas to be charged lowest rate
In a significant change to regulations, oil and gas regulator PNGRB has proposed a new policy of how tariffs for pipelines carrying gas to users will be determined, and proposed charging city gas entities selling CNG and piped cooking gas to households at the lowest rates. The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has floated a public consultation document for changing the zonal tariffs levied on pipelines that carry natural gas from fields producing it or from import ports, to users such as power plants that make electricity from it, or fertiliser units that manufacture urea from it, or city gas entities that turn it into CNG for sale to automobiles and pipe it to household kitchens for cooking purposes. “In yet another far-reaching reform for bringing investments and to increase the gas consumption especially in CNG and domestic piped natural gas (one used in household kitchens for cooking) in the country, PNGRB has brought a proposal for reducing the price of piped natural gas used by domestic consumers and in transport,” the regulator said. A public consultation document (PCD) has been webhosted for seeking comments from stakeholders on various aspects of tariff regulations like reducing the unified tariff zones to two from three, levying zone one unified tariff to all the CNG and piped natural gas (PNG)-domestic customers, it said.
India raises local gas price from oil fields by 4%
India has increased the price of locally produced gas from oil fields by almost 4% to $6.75 per million metric British thermal units (mmBtu) for April, as compared to the previous month’s price of $6.50 per mmBtu, according to a government website update on Monday. This is the first adjustment in two years for the price of gas extracted from older fields. In 2023, the Indian government had established a maximum price of $6.50 per mmBtu for a period of two years. This cap included a provision for an annual increase of 25 cents from the third year onwards. Additionally, the ceiling price for gas to be extracted from challenging fields has been set at $10.04 per mmBtu for the period from April to September. This is a slight decrease from the previous six months’ ceiling price of $10.16 per mmBtu, as shown by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell of the oil ministry’s website. These prices will be used on a gross heat value basis. The increase in the price of gas produced from oil fields will result in higher earnings for the Oil and Natural Gas Corp (NSE:ONGC) and Oil India (NSE:OILI). However, it will also lead to an increase in prices for industrial buyers and companies in the fertilizer and city gas distribution sectors.