Global oil in softening mode: Bonanza for India
Global oil prices have been softening for the past two months despite continuing geopolitical tensions. The phenomena of lower prices has defied predictions by investment agencies that had forecast oil skyrocketing in 2024. Instead, 2023 is ending with oil markets in bearish mode and the benchmark Brent crude being quoted at a low of 75 dollars per barrel. Unless the situation alters gravely over the next six months, it looks as if Goldman Sachs’ gloomy expectation of crude soaring to 100 dollars per barrel by the end of next year has little chance of becoming a reality. The current depressed state of oil markets comes after the peak of mid-October when prices had touched 92 dollars per barrel. This was a reaction to the decision by Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their voluntary output cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) for another three months. The momentum of higher rates could not be maintained in the following weeks due to several factors. The first is the failure to maintain production quotas by members of the oil cartel now known as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus due to the addition of Russia and other allies to the group. Several members have been exceeding their listed quotas including Iran and Venezuela which are exempt due to the sanctions. Other countries like Angola and Nigeria have felt the need to produce more oil to generate enough revenues for their exchequer. The differences within the cartel came to light at the recent OPEC plus meeting where African producers were reported to be concerned over the proposed output cuts of 2.2 million bpd scheduled for the first quarter of 2024. The latest visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Saudi Arabia indicates the growing concern of OPEC+ leaders over the inability of the cartel to operate as a cohesive unit.
Petrol, diesel may get cheaper as OMCs become profitable
Petrol and diesel prices in the country are expected to come down soon after remaining unchanged for over a year. The government has begun discussing ways to pass on the benefits of softening global crude prices to consumers before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, according to a report by ET Now. In contrast to peak losses of ₹17 per litre on petrol and ₹35 per litre on diesel in 2022, OMCs are now making a profit of ₹8-10 per litre on petrol and ₹3-4 per litre on diesel. According to the report, the oil ministry has already discussed crude versus retail price scenarios with OMCs. Since oil marketing companies (OMCs) are now making profits, the government has begun discussions on the matter to give some relief to the people, the report further added. The finance ministry and the oil ministry are pondering over the current crude oil price scenario. In addition to OMC profitability, they are discussing global factors, the report noted. Why fuel is expected to get cheaper? Due to strong profits in the last three quarters, OMCs’ overall losses have narrowed. The combined profit of three OMCs – IOC, HPCL and BPCL – was ₹280 billion last quarter, the report further stated. Since OMCs’ under-recovery has ended, the government thinks that the consumers must also reap the benefits. Earlier this week, oil prices fell on the back of concerns about a drop in demand and continued uncertainty over the depth and duration of OPEC+ supply cuts.