Russia Is Preparing To Export Less Oil In August
Russia could deliver on at least part of its pledge to reduce oil exports next month as its western ports are planned to ship up to 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) lower crude volumes in August compared to July, Reuters reported exclusively on Friday, quoting sources with knowledge of the export plans. Russia said last week that it would cut its crude oil exports by 500,000 bpd in August in a bid to ensure a balanced market, and the reduction in exports would come from a further 500,000-bpd cut in oil production. This week, Russia’s energy authorities asked the top executives of local companies to plan for export cuts in August, according to Reuters’ sources. The western ports in Russia, Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea and Novorossiisk on the Black Sea, are expected to ship 100,000 bpd-200,000 bpd lower volumes in August. The export programs for the Far Eastern ports in Russia, from which crude cargoes make much shorter trips to Asian customers China and India, are not available yet, according to Reuters. But the reduction in the export plans for the western ports in August suggests that Russia would make good on its pledge to reduce shipments, at least partially, as Moscow and Saudi Arabia announced cuts to exports and production, respectively, for August nearly simultaneously last week. Signs have emerged that Russian crude oil exports have already started to fall in recent weeks. Tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed earlier this week that Russian crude oil exports by sea dropped by 205,000 bpd to 3.21 million bpd on a four-week average basis in the four weeks to July 9. The latest four-week average export volumes fell below the 3.38 million bpd in the four weeks to February 26, after holding up above that level for months.
India’s July petrol, diesel sales drop as monsoon hurts fuel demand
With heavy rains wreaking havoc across the country, India’s petrol and diesel sales declined in the first half of July, compared to the first half of June. As travel demand dropped between July 1 and July 16, fuel sales too took a hit. Daily sales of diesel fell by 19.7% to about 2.96 million metric tons in July compared with June, data showed. The drop is in keeping with consumer trends for the monsoon, with consumption typically dropping in the monsoon season due to widespread floods across the subcontinent. Demand from the agriculture sector also gets affected in this period due to fewer irrigation-related requirements. State retailers’ diesel sales were further hit as private refiner Reliance Industries Ltd is selling the fuel at cheaper rates. Government retailers’ – Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp and Bharat Petroleum – daily petrol sales were down by 10.8% month-on-month in July at around 1.26 million metric tons, data showed. As passenger traffic at airports continues to rise, demand for jet fuel (ATF) rose 6.1% to 301,800 tonnes during this period, as compared to the same period last year. It was more than double that of the first half of July 2021. Month-on-month jet fuel sales fell 6.7% when compared with 323,500 tonnes in June 1-15, 2023. For the year, India’s oil demand is forecast at 0.2 million barrels per day year-on-year, according to oil cartel OPEC’s monthly oil bulletin.
Indian Oil signs long term LNG import deals with ADNOC LNG, TotalEnergies
Indian Oil Corp, the country’s top refiner, has signed long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) import deals with United Arab Emirates’ s Abu Dhabi Gas Liquefaction Co Ltd (ADNOC LNG) and France’s TotalEnergies. The two deals were signed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Visit to France and UAE last week. Supplies under the two deals would commence from 2026, the Indian company said in two separate statements. ADNOC LNG would supply up to 1.2 million metric tonnes per year (tpy) of LNG to IOC for 14 years, the Indian company said, adding India’s trade treaty with UAE enable it to import LNG without paying a 2.5% import tax. This is the first time that an Indian company has signed a long term LNG import deal with ADNOC. TotalEnergies would supply 0.8 million tpy LNG to IOC under the 10 year deal, it said. TotalEnergies would supply LNG to IOC from its global portfolio. India companies are spending billions of dollars to boost their gas infrastructure and are scouting for long term LNG imports deals as the nation wants to raise the share of gas in its energy mix to 15% by 2030 from 6.2% currently. IOC’s signings are also the latest in a slew of term deals signed by Asian LNG importers in recent months. In June, Bangladesh’s state-owned Petrobangla signed a 10-year contract to receive LNG supplies from OQ Trading, formerly known as Oman Trading International, and a 15-year suppy deal with QatarEnergy, starting 2026. Chinese importers Zhejiang Energy and ENN have also signed 20-year deals in recent weeks to receive North American supplies, after QatarEnergy inked 27-year agreements with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Sinopec. Meanwhile, Thailand’s state-controlled PTT is in advanced talks with Qatar for a 15-year LNG deal for supplies of 1 or 2 million tonnes per annum, sources told Reuters.
Iraq Takes First Step Towards Becoming The World’s Biggest Oil Producer
Iraq’s parliamentary oil and gas committee plans to increase the country’s oil production to more than five million barrels per day, according to the release of committee minutes last week. As analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order, not only could this be done with relative ease by Iraq but it could also easily be the precursor to further oil production increases to 13 million barrels per day (bpd) if handled correctly. This would make Iraq the biggest oil producer in the world. In broad terms, Iraq remains the greatest relatively underdeveloped oil frontier in the world. Officially, according to the EIA, it holds a very conservatively-estimated 145 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves (nearly 18 percent of the Middle East’s total, and the fifth biggest on the planet). Unofficially, it is extremely likely that it holds much more oil than this. In October 2010, Iraq’s Oil Ministry increased its own figure for the country’s proven reserves to 143 billion barrels. However, at the same time as producing the official reserves figures, the Oil Ministry stated that Iraq’s undiscovered resources amounted to around 215 billion barrels. This was also a figure that had been arrived at in a 1997 detailed study by respected oil and gas firm, Petrolog. Even this figure, though, did not include the parts of northern Iraq in the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan. This meant, as highlighted by the IEA, that most of them had been drilled during a period before the 1970s began when technical limits and low oil prices gave a narrower definition of what constituted a commercially successful well than would be the case now. Overall, the IEA underlined that the level of ultimately recoverable resources across all of Iraq (including the Kurdistan region) at around 246 billion barrels (crude and natural gas liquids). Given the true scale of Iraq’s oil reserves – and the fact that the average lifting cost per barrel of oil in the country is US$1-2 pb (the lowest in the world, along with Iran and Saudi Arabia) – what sort of oil output could reasonably be expected? Back in 2013, the Integrated National Energy Strategy (INES) was produced, and this analysed in detail three realistic forward oil production profiles for Iraq and what each would involve. As also analysed in my new book, the INES’ best-case scenario was for crude oil production capacity to increase to 13 million bpd (at that point, by 2017), peaking at around that level until 2023, and finally gradually declining to around 10 million bpd for a long-sustained period thereafter. The mid-range production scenario was for Iraq to reach 9 million bpd (at that point, by 2020), and the worst-case INES scenario was for production to reach 6 million bpd (at that point, by 2020). Consequently, the 5 million bpd figure announced last week can be regarded as the first easily achievable stepping stone toward those figures. Indeed, according to Iraq’s Oil Minister, Hayan Abdel-Ghani, last week, the country’s oil production capacity already stands above this level – at 5.4 million bpd – although it is still only producing around 4.3-4.5 million bpd overall. The question at this point is, with these enormous reserves in place, and specific plans on how to turn these into up to 13 million bpd in the Oil Ministry’s files, why is Iraq not already producing a lot more oil than it is? The reason is the ongoing endemic corruption that lies at the heart of Iraq’s oil and gas industry. This not only removes enormous amounts of money from Iraq’s coffers that could fund much-needed infrastructure investments but also deters Western companies with the required technology, logistical expertise, and personnel from becoming too involved in the country. Although commissions are standard practice in the Middle East – and indeed across many business around the world – the practice has become something else entirely in Iraq. This has been highlighted repeatedly by OilPrice.com and independently over many years by Transparency International (TI) in various of its ‘Corruption Perceptions Index’ publications, in which Iraq normally features in the worst 10 out of 180 countries for its scale and scope of corruption. “Massive embezzlement, procurement scams, money laundering, oil smuggling and widespread bureaucratic bribery that have led the country to the bottom of international corruption rankings, fuelled political violence and hampered effective state building and service delivery,” TI states. “Political interference in anti-corruption bodies and politicisation of corruption issues, weak civil society, insecurity, lack of resources and incomplete legal provisions severely limit the government’s capacity to efficiently curb soaring corruption,” it concludes. The sums of money that Iraq has lost could have funded all the major projects needed to boost oil production up to at least 7 or 8 million bpd to begin with, notably the crucial Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP), as also analysed in my new book. According to a statement made in 2015 by then-Oil Minister – and later Prime Minister of Iraq – Adil Abdul Mahdi, Iraq “lost US$14,448,146,000” from the beginning of 2011 up to the end of 2014 as “cash compensation” payments to international oil companies and to other entities. In basic terms, the way in which such a staggering sum was lost relates to the way in which gross remuneration fees, income tax and the share of the State partner was deducted and accounted for in the compensation paid out over reduced oil production levels. The sheer scale and scope of this corruption created the unwillingness of major Western firms to become too heavily involved in the country. In June 2021, U.K. oil super-major, BP, said it was working on a plan to spin off its operations in Iraq’s supergiant Rumaila oil field into a standalone company. The statement was highly reminiscent of the withdrawal of the U.K.-Dutch oil super-major, Shell, from Iraq’s supergiant Majnoon oil field in 2017 and of its withdrawal from Iraq’s supergiant West Qurna 1 oil field in 2018. Each of
Government reimposes windfall tax on domestic crude export
After a gap of two months, the government imposed the windfall tax on domestic crude oil production from nil to Rs 1,600 per tonne. However, there are no Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED) taxes on export of diesel, petrol or aviation turbine fuel (ATF). These changes are effective from July 15). In May 2023, the government cut the windfall tax on petroleum crude to zero from Rs 4,100 per tonne. Tax rates are reviewed fortnightly based on average oil prices in the previous two weeks. Global crude oil prices have risen again on the back of supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The crude basket averaging below $75/bbl in May and June this year touched $80.92/bbl on July 13. India first imposed windfall profit taxes on 1 July 2022, joining a growing number of nations that tax supernormal profits of energy companies. At that time, export duties of Rs 6 per litre ($12 per barrel) each were levied on petrol and ATF and Rs 13 a litre ($26 a barrel) on diesel.
Gujarat’s green hydrogen projects to gain from NDB’s Climate Mitigation Fund
The ambitious big-ticket investments by key corporates in Gujarat in the green hydrogen sector are all set to gain big through the lending from New Development Bank (NDB). Since green infrastructure, green energy and climate mitigation projects are the NDB’s targets of investments in India, green hydrogen projects are expected to be co-financed by the bank, according to Leslie Maasdorp, vice president and chief financial officer, NDB. He is in Gujarat to attend the G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies (FCBD) Meetings, being held at Mahatma Mandir in Gandhinagar from July 14-18. “Green hydrogen is a proven technology and can be scaled up. Therefore, the NDB is closely looking at co-financing these projects in India. Our aim at the NDB is to demonstrate and scale commercially viable projects in the areas of sustainability,” Maasdorp said, adding that NDB plans to continue investing in India at the rate of $1-$1.5 billion every year in India. TOI recently reported that the Gujarat cabinet approved the draft land allocation policy for green hydrogen projects. Land parcels of 1,99,000 hectare have been earmarked for five key players – private sector entities – eyeing their foray into the green hydrogen manufacturing. These include Reliance New Energy, Adani New Industries, Torrent Power, ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India and Welspun Group.
India’s commissioning of floating LNG storage terminals to face further delays
India could witness further delays in commissioning and expansion of its floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage terminals with a total planned capacity of 30 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). The world’s fifth-largest LNG importer plans to add 30 MTPA of regasification capacity in a bid to import and store larger volumes of LNG to meet rising domestic demand. “India’s 5 MTPA Jafrabad FSRU and 6 MTPA H-Gas LNG Gateway have postponed their start-up from previous years and may see further delays due to tight supply globally for FSRU vessels and tepid local LNG demand due to recently high and volatile prices,” the International Gas Union (IGU) said in the world LNG report 2023. In the Jafrabad (Gujarat) FSRU, Swan Energy holds 32.12 per cent stake, followed by Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative (30.87 per cent), Mitsui Group (11 per cent); Gujarat Maritime Board (15 per cent) and Gujarat State Petronet (11 per cent). The Jaigarh (Maharashtra) FSRU is controlled by H-Energy Gateway. businessline reached out to Swan Energy and H-Energy Gateway, but no responses were received. “Worth noting is that the floating terminals in India may face delays again this year due to the tight supply of FSRU vessels and increasing competition from European markets”, the report said. To increase regasification capacity, five new floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) and two expansion projects are under construction in India. Of the five new terminals, three are floating-based, reflecting the South Asian market’s preference for floating terminals, it added. In October 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) had pointed out that rising demand in Europe has drawn away not only flexible LNG volumes from Asia but also the limited number of FSRU vessels available for hire in the foreseeable future. “Even projects with firm FSRUs can see their vessel commitments withdrawn. Hoegh LNG, for example, has recently terminated its 10-year FSRU charter with the much-delayed Jaigarh LNG project in India, and is now expected to redeploy the vessel to a new European FSRU terminal later this year,” it had said. Record high prices of LNG impacted imports, particularly among the price-conscious consumers in Asia. “While prices moderated closer to historically average levels at the start of 2023, they remain elevated with an ongoing risk of a return to 2022 conditions,” the report has projected. The report said that the Platts Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark, which reflects cargoes delivered into Northeast Asia, averaged $33.98 per million British thermal units (mBtu) in 2022, reaching an annual daily low of $18.945 per mBtu on January 20, 2022 and hitting an annual high, also an all-time high for the benchmark, at $84.762 on March 7, 2022. Asian demand reduced significantly in most locations, with the two fastest-growing major LNG markets in recent years, China, and India, both taking a major step back in procurement, reducing imports by 19.3 per cent Y-o-Y and 17.7 per cent Y-o-Y respectively. China’s LNG imports stood at 63.7 million tonnes (MT) in 2022, while India imported 19.4 MT. France replaced India and emerged as the fourth-largest LNG importer in 2022