Nuclear Deal Increasingly Unlikely As Iran Strengthens Ties With Russia
There are several reasons to be short crude oil currently – economic recession in the U.S. and looming recessions in Europe, ongoing lockdowns in China, the vested interest of the U.S. in keeping oil below US$75 per barrel of Brent, to name but three – but the prospect of an imminent new ‘nuclear deal’ between the West and Iran is not one of them. It is true that the European Union (EU) last week tabled a ‘final text’ of a new iteration of the nuclear deal – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – to Washington and Tehran. However, it is equally true, as conveyed at length and exclusively to OilPrice.com last week by several senior political and oil industry sources close to proceedings, that there is virtually no chance of such a deal being done without a massive concession coming from Iran that it is impossible to see the current regime making. “Nothing has changed in the past few months from when the U.S. decided that Iran was just trying to buy time for its nuclear weapons development program by continuing to submit new clauses to the text of the new version of the JCPOA agreement,” a senior energy source who worked closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry, told OilPrice.com. “And Washington has told everyone else in the P5+1 group [the U.S., the U.K., France, China, and Russia ‘plus’ Germany] that it will not budge from its position on the IRGC, which is aimed – as Iran knows – at destroying the IRGC’s influence, and by extension Iran’s influence – in the world,” he said. “As far as the U.S. is concerned, everything is now focused on ensuring that Iran does not get the three months it needs to finish the guidance systems it requires, with the help of Russia, to deliver weapons-grade nuclear material in the missiles it already has,” he added. A cementing of the U.S. view that “we are not going to change a single word or add a single comma in the current draft [of the new version of the JCPOA] on the table” – as a senior European Union energy source told OilPrice.com last week – came on 9 August with the launch of Iran’s ‘Khayyam’ satellite, built almost entirely by Russia and powered into orbit from the Russia-controlled Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. According to Iran, the satellite will be “used to monitor Iran’s borders and improve the country’s capabilities in management and planning in the fields of agriculture, natural resources, environment, mining, and natural disasters.” According to the U.S., the satellite is to be used for spying on its neighbors. Neither statement is entirely true, although the U.S. did hint at how serious it is when a State Department spokesman said last week of the Khayyam launch: “Russia deepening an alliance with Iran is something that the whole world should look at and see as a profound threat.” What the Khayyam satellite was launched for is to provide the final piece of the missile guidance systems that Russia and Iran have been working on for years – this one relating to improving the accuracy of missiles (by up to 25 percent for short- and medium-range missiles and by up to 70 percent for long-range missiles) according to the Iranian source. During those past few years, Iran has sent several very small (50 kilograms or less) satellites of its own making into orbit, although none of them had the relative operational sophistication of the Russian-made Khayyam satellite (which weighs over half a tonne) launched last week. Prior to the launch of the Khayyam, there were five failed launches in a row for the ‘Simorgh’ program, which involved the same type of array as the Khayyam – a rocket launched that also carries a satellite (Khayyam was launched using a Russian Soyuz-2.1b rocket booster). Attempts by Iran to lunch more larger and more operationally sophisticated satellites – like Khayyam – have previously met with ‘unexplained’ setbacks, including most notably in recent times a massive fire at the Imam Khomeini Spaceport in February 2019 that also killed three key Iranian figures in its ‘satellite’ program. This latest advance by Iran in its quest to be able to deliver a fully functioning nuclear warhead to anywhere within a few-thousand-mile radius should come as no surprise, given that the same sponsor for North Korea’s nuclear program – China – is the key state sponsor of Iran, as analyzed in depth in my latest book on the global oil markets. After the landmark 25-year deal was struck in August 2019 between Iran and China – a story exclusively broken by me in September 2019, nearly two years before it was officially announced or reported on by anyone else – China (and Russia) gradually and quietly began to increase their cooperation on key elements of Iran’s nuclear weapons development program. In China’s case, the level of intermediation between middle-men connected to it and to North Korea and Iran was stepped up using a triangular system of technology supplies (from China to North Korea via middlemen, and then from North Korea to Iran), and payment principally in oil (from Iran to North Korea, with some also sent from Iran to China directly). Russia had agreed to take a back seat to China in Iran’s nuclear weapons program in the year or two after the 25-year China-Iran deal had actually been made (in August 2019), but shifted back to a front seat position from September 2021 (when it began to activate its plan to invade Ukraine), as China remains wary of overtly challenging the U.S. outside its own perceived area of influence in the Taiwan Strait. Iran and Russia still need “two to three months to finalise its overall missile guidance system,” according to the sources spoken to by OilPrice.com last week, although it already has a vast array of missiles already in place with varying range applications. This leaves the nuclear material itself for the warheads as the third element
Bharat Petroleum To Spend Rs 1400 billion On Petchem, Gas Business
BPCL, India’s second-biggest oil refining and fuel marketing company, is “recalibrating its strategies to leverage emerging opportunities while mitigating risks,” its CMD Arun Kumar Singh said. State-run Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) will invest Rs 1400 billion in petrochemicals, city gas and clean energy in the next five years as it looks to non-fuel businesses for growth, the PTI reported. According to the report, BPCL, India’s second-biggest oil refining and fuel marketing company, is “recalibrating its strategies to leverage emerging opportunities while mitigating risks,” its chairman and managing director Arun Kumar Singh said in the firm’s latest annual report. As countries across the world opt for cleaner, carbon-free fuel, oil companies are looking at businesses to de-risk their mainstay hydrocarbon operations. Gas is being seen as a transition fuel as electric mobility and hydrogen pick pace. “The company has firmed up plans to diversify and expand in adjacent and alternative businesses to create additional revenue streams and provide a hedge against any possible future decline in liquid fossil-fuel business,” he said. BPCL, which owns 20,217 out of 83,685 petrol pumps in the country, is looking at not just selling petrol and diesel at the bunks but also providing EV charging as well as fuels of the future like hydrogen. “Mindful of the need to reinvent ourselves with the changing times, we are committed to and progressing towards transforming our fuel stations into energy stations, where all forms of energy solutions for mobility, like petrol, diesel, natural gas, EV solutions, flexi fuels and, eventually, hydrogen, would be available,” he said. BPCL owns 14 per cent of India’s oil refining capacity of 251.2 million tonnes. It has refineries at Mumbai, Bina in Madhya Pradesh and Kochi in Kerala. Six strategic areas, he said, have been identified as pillars of future growth and sustainability. These are petrochemicals, gas, renewables, new businesses (consumer retailing), e-mobility and upstream, while the core businesses of refining and marketing of petroleum products continue to serve as a solid foundation, providing stability and consistent cash flows. “The company has laid out a detailed roadmap under each of these strategic areas, and has planned a capex outlay of around Rs 1400 billion in the next five years,” he said. BPCL will set up petchem projects at its oil refineries at Bina and Kochi. “The company has identified two new refinery-integrated petrochemical projects – the 1.2 million tonnes per annum ethylene cracker unit at Bina refinery and the 0.4 million tonnes polypropylene unit at Kochi refinery,” he said. “Action has been initiated for these projects.” To expand natural gas footprints, BPCL is aggressively bidding and securing city gas retailing licenses. It, along with its joint ventures, now has licenses to retail CNG to automobiles and piped natural gas to households and industries in 50 geographical areas (GAs) covering 105 districts. Natural gas will supplement the firm’s traditional petrol, diesel and cooking gas LPG business. To achieve its net-zero carbon emission target by 2040, BPCL has set up a business unit ‘Renewable Energy’ that will seek to set up 1 Gigawatt of renewable electricity generation capacity by 2025 and 10 GW by 2040, he said adding the firm is also blending more than 10 per cent ethanol in petrol. “Non-fuel offerings have been an important constituent of BPCL’s retailing portfolio and one of the major drivers of growth in fuel business through the rub-off effect,” he said. He further said, “The company has formed a business unit called ‘New Businesses’ for expanding the consumer retailing business more vigorously and in newer ways, with an initial focus on small towns and rural areas.” The company has dovetailed fuel with non-fuel offerings. It has on one hand enrolled rural womenfolk entrepreneurs called ‘Urja Devis’ to reach out to the lowest denominator in the Indian market, and on the other opened 30 new ‘In & Out’ stores at petrol pumps. “Our endeavour is to create 1,500 ‘In & Out’ stores and engage 15,000 Urja Devis in the coming year,” he said. In the Electric Mobility space, to address range anxiety pertaining to electric 4-wheelers, BPCL has come up with a novel concept of creating Highway Fast Charging Corridors, and on a pilot basis, adopted the 900-km Chennai-Trichy-Madurai-Chennai highway (NH-45) to develop it as a Highway Fast Charging Corridor. Going forward, BPCL plans to grow in this space in tandem with market expansion, he said. On the upstream front, Bharat PetroResources Limited (BPRL), its wholly-owned upstream subsidiary, is pursuing oil and gas development projects from Brazil to Mozambique. “Over the years, BPCL has been focusing on creating additional capacities and augmenting its infrastructure to reduce dependence on other oil companies to serve its markets,” he said.
India’s energy market comes of age
But energy administration is fragmented under multiple ministries, making integrated energy management a major challenge ‘Turmoil – the heat is on’ is a popular video game, where the player must earn his way to become a successful oil entrepreneur. The rising price of oil has certainly caused a turmoil in India, threatening to alter the pace of its economic growth. Back in 2015, aided by the US shale boom and Paris Climate Accord, the oil market was impacted by fundamental demand and supply forecasts, rather than geopolitics. Growing shale production promised to act as the ceiling to any price rise that could be triggered by OPEC-driven production cuts. Paris Climate Accord promised a long-term outlook, with a more dominant role for renewable energy over fossil fuels and, within fossil fuel, gas was to overtake coal. And, the world began to believe in peak demand for oil, discarding its earlier belief of peak in oil supply. Cut to 2022, the long-term outlook for the end of oil-dominated world energy mix, still holds good. However, the market is nervous, speculating the outcome of Russian-Ukraine conflict, impact of sanctions, and inflationary trends. Reforms, the journey so far Pre-NELP & NELP Phase: Four decades ago, India was able to meet about 75 per cent of its oil requirements through domestic production, and was not importing gas or coal. Now, we need to import 80 per cent of our oil requirement and 50 per cent of our gas requirement. India’s growth in oil demand has closely followed its economic growth rate. During the early 1990s, primarily driven by lack of foreign exchange, a few discovered offshore fields were opened for Foreign Direct Investment in the oil and gas sector. The policy required a mandatory stake of 40 per cent to NOC, with the balance 60 per cent to private sector, along with operatorship. One such oil and gas field was Ravva (diamond). But the major policy breakthrough in India occurred when the Government of India launched the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) in early 2000. Production Sharing Contract (PSC) regime was the basis of the last nine NELP bid rounds. This resulted in over 250 PSCs, attracted investments worth over $20 billion, and led to 130 discoveries. The three major discoveries by the private sector are the MBA oil and gas field, Barmer Basin in the desert district of Rajasthan, and two major deep water gas discoveries in the East-Coast of India. The NELP regime ushered in a level-playing field, transparent bidding processes, an internationally established contract regime and market-determined prices for crude oil, while the government retained the control over gas prices. Though entering late, the private sector made its mark. Unfortunately, over a period, the PSC system attracted controversy, becoming a challenge to both contractors and the government. Purposeless procedures took precedence, and the primary purpose of finding and producing oil and gas was lost. Unable to bear the heat of red tape, a few international oil and gas companies that entered India, moved back in frustration. HELP Phase When the NDA government began its term, one commodity that lent an unexpected helping hand in managing the economy was oil. Lower oil prices and import bill helped the government to remove subsidies on petroleum products, restrict LPG subsidy to eligible citizens by direct benefit transfer, and move to market-determined petrol and diesel prices at the retail outlets. The National Data Repository (NDR) under HELP, with its 24×7 access, is the most impactful policy reform that significantly improved the ease of doing business. Revenue Sharing Contracts (RSC) under HELP have dispensed with cost recovery model and associated complications. Overall, HELP as a policy instrument, has been well thought out, but unfortunately, its timing was late by a decade. It has happened at the time when global oil and gas majors have stopped looking at cross-border investments due to their Energy Transition agenda. Reforms, the journey ahead Reality Check: India lacks a well-articulated integrated energy policy and governance structure. Energy administration is fragmented under multiple ministries, making integrated energy management a major challenge, adding uncertainty to its energy transition agenda. Indian energy sector has limited players, skewed market, energy resources are under explored, energy production is at suboptimal levels with energy pricing determined by politics rather than economics — States and Central government compete with each other in energy taxes, driving the consumer choices away from greener fuels. India’s transportation sector consumes 70 per cent of the crude oil in the form of petroleum products, but has no role in shaping the fuel choices of the consumers. Policy formulation in the changed world has to treat oil and gas as a form of energy, along with other forms of energy to evolve an integrated energy policy and governance structure to attract global investments. India needs to map the global developments in fossil fuel technologies, assess the enabling policy initiatives in select countries to promote alternate fuel choices, outline the planning and infrastructure requirements, and set out a road map that will provide fuel choices to consumers and provide energy security to India. To achieve that, the following steps are essential: 1) The first step is to consolidate the multiple policy reforms and ease of business initiatives announced by individual ministries that are involved in managing the natural resources and various modes of transportation to present a compelling investment opportunity in the larger energy space; 2) the need is to involve the State governments in energy policy formulation following the GST Council model. The reality is whether one travels by air, sea, rail or road, petroleum products remain the sole fuel of choice. Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, UP and Rajasthan each consume more than 10 million tonnes of liquid petroleum products, and can switch to a flexi mix of gas and ethanol, even if gas were to be imported in the form of LNG and a premium price is required to be paid to increase ethanol production in the country. On the exploration front, India’s
Saudi Aramco unveils record quarterly profit of 48.4 billion as oil prices soar
Oil giant Saudi Aramco on Sunday unveiled record profits of USD 48.4 billion in the second quarter of 2022, after Russia’s war in Ukraine and a post-pandemic surge in demand sent crude prices soaring. Net income leapt 90 percent year-on-year for the world’s biggest oil producer, which clocked its second straight quarterly record after announcing USD 39.5 billion for Q1. Aramco’s massive Q2 windfall was the biggest quarterly adjusted profit of any listed company worldwide, according to Bloomberg. The state-owned Saudi firm heads a list of oil majors raking in eye-watering sums after ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies and Eni also revealed multi-billion-dollar profits in Q2. “While global market volatility and economic uncertainty remain, events during the first half of this year support our view that ongoing investment in our industry is essential,” said Aramco president and CEO Amin H. Nasser. “In fact, we expect oil demand to continue to grow for the rest of the decade,” he added. Net income rose 22.7 percent from Q1 in “strong market conditions”, Aramco said. Half-year profits were USD 87.9 billion, up from USD 47.2 billion for the same period of 2021. Aramco will pay an USD 18.8 billion dividend in Q3, the same as it paid in Q2. It “continues to work on increasing crude oil maximum sustainable capacity from 12 million barrels per day to 13 million by 2027”, its earnings announcement said. The quarterly profits, the highest since Aramco’s record-breaking IPO in 2019, beat a company-compiled analyst forecast of USD 46.2 billion. Aramco shares closed down 0.9 percent at 40.5 riyals (USD10.8) on the Saudi stock exchange. They are up 25 percent this year. ‘Crown jewel’ Aramco floated 1.7 percent of its shares on the Saudi bourse in December 2019, generating USD 29.4 billion in the world’s biggest initial public offering. The “crown jewel” and leading source of income for the conservative kingdom temporarily supplanted Apple as the world’s most valuable company in March. It now lies second in the list with a market valuation of USD 2.4 trillion. Saudi Arabia has sought to open up and diversify its oil-reliant economy, especially since Mohammed bin Salman’s appointment as crown prince and de facto ruler in 2017. Despite raising production, Aramco has pledged to reach “operational net zero (carbon) emissions” by 2050. Carbon pollution is tallied in the country that uses the fuel, not where it is produced. Saudi GDP jumped nearly 12 percent in Q2 on the back of high oil prices, the government announced last month. Abu Dhabi-based energy expert Ibrahim Elghitany said the oil bonanza was a “golden opportunity” for the country. “Saudi Arabia has recently achieved financial surpluses that it did not achieve during the last decade, which helps to provide financing for its development projects,” Elghitany told AFP. Nasser said Aramco recovered quickly from a series of attacks by Yemen’s Huthi rebels on its facilities earlier this year, including a dramatic strike in Jeddah that sent smoke billowing during a Formula One practice session in March. “We were able to restore our production in all these facilities immediately. In a few weeks, all facilities were working and producing at full capacity,” he told a media conference call. Oil prices have dropped by USD 30 per barrel from a peak in June due to growing supplies, but remain close to USD 100. The OPEC group of oil-producing countries has been gradually raising production, despite pressure from Western leaders including US President Joe Biden — who visited Saudi Arabia last month — to pump more. Biden’s trip was seen as a climb-down after he previously promised to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” over the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in Turkey in 2018. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has also visited Saudi Arabia since the Russian invasion in February. High oil prices are contributing to the inflationary pain suffered by consumers worldwide. In June, Biden grumbled that Exxon “made more money than God this year”, advocating higher taxes on oil companies.
Saudi Aramco unveils record quarterly profit of 48.4 billion as oil prices soar
Oil giant Saudi Aramco on Sunday unveiled record profits of USD 48.4 billion in the second quarter of 2022, after Russia’s war in Ukraine and a post-pandemic surge in demand sent crude prices soaring. Net income leapt 90 percent year-on-year for the world’s biggest oil producer, which clocked its second straight quarterly record after announcing USD 39.5 billion for Q1. Aramco’s massive Q2 windfall was the biggest quarterly adjusted profit of any listed company worldwide, according to Bloomberg. The state-owned Saudi firm heads a list of oil majors raking in eye-watering sums after ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies and Eni also revealed multi-billion-dollar profits in Q2. “While global market volatility and economic uncertainty remain, events during the first half of this year support our view that ongoing investment in our industry is essential,” said Aramco president and CEO Amin H. Nasser. “In fact, we expect oil demand to continue to grow for the rest of the decade,” he added. Net income rose 22.7 percent from Q1 in “strong market conditions”, Aramco said. Half-year profits were USD 87.9 billion, up from USD 47.2 billion for the same period of 2021. Aramco will pay an USD 18.8 billion dividend in Q3, the same as it paid in Q2. It “continues to work on increasing crude oil maximum sustainable capacity from 12 million barrels per day to 13 million by 2027”, its earnings announcement said. The quarterly profits, the highest since Aramco’s record-breaking IPO in 2019, beat a company-compiled analyst forecast of USD 46.2 billion. Aramco shares closed down 0.9 percent at 40.5 riyals (USD10.8) on the Saudi stock exchange. They are up 25 percent this year. ‘Crown jewel’ Aramco floated 1.7 percent of its shares on the Saudi bourse in December 2019, generating USD 29.4 billion in the world’s biggest initial public offering. The “crown jewel” and leading source of income for the conservative kingdom temporarily supplanted Apple as the world’s most valuable company in March. It now lies second in the list with a market valuation of USD 2.4 trillion. Saudi Arabia has sought to open up and diversify its oil-reliant economy, especially since Mohammed bin Salman’s appointment as crown prince and de facto ruler in 2017. Despite raising production, Aramco has pledged to reach “operational net zero (carbon) emissions” by 2050. Carbon pollution is tallied in the country that uses the fuel, not where it is produced. Saudi GDP jumped nearly 12 percent in Q2 on the back of high oil prices, the government announced last month. Abu Dhabi-based energy expert Ibrahim Elghitany said the oil bonanza was a “golden opportunity” for the country. “Saudi Arabia has recently achieved financial surpluses that it did not achieve during the last decade, which helps to provide financing for its development projects,” Elghitany told AFP. Nasser said Aramco recovered quickly from a series of attacks by Yemen’s Huthi rebels on its facilities earlier this year, including a dramatic strike in Jeddah that sent smoke billowing during a Formula One practice session in March. “We were able to restore our production in all these facilities immediately. In a few weeks, all facilities were working and producing at full capacity,” he told a media conference call. Oil prices have dropped by USD 30 per barrel from a peak in June due to growing supplies, but remain close to USD 100. The OPEC group of oil-producing countries has been gradually raising production, despite pressure from Western leaders including US President Joe Biden — who visited Saudi Arabia last month — to pump more. Biden’s trip was seen as a climb-down after he previously promised to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” over the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in Turkey in 2018. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has also visited Saudi Arabia since the Russian invasion in February. High oil prices are contributing to the inflationary pain suffered by consumers worldwide. In June, Biden grumbled that Exxon “made more money than God this year”, advocating higher taxes on oil companies.